Are Bail-ins possible in Europe?

[Mikcik]

Are Bail-ins and the IMF 10% wealth tax possible in Europe?

Are bail-ins really possible in Europe? What about the countries that dont pay with Euro... Whats your take on this?

I watch several videos and read several articles where they said so (that bailins are possible), and that they are in the laws already... On the other hand i had also read that bailins will be included in "nations" (?) laws not sooner than in 2018... so wheres the truth now...? Who should i belive... i feel that a lot of the articles about bailins comming soon are just fear mongering conspiracy idiots (i belive in a lot of "conspiracy theories" but they are blown out of proportion a lot of the times)...

So whats your thought on bailins and the 10% IMF wealth tax?


How would it affect bitcoin? (i think the price would rise of course).

Wouldnt it cripple the faith in banks forever...?
Would also some bank restrictions (capital control, you can withdrawl for example only a small specific ammount from your bank account)... Wouldnt it cripple the bitcoin exchnages, because people wouldnt be simply able to buy a sufficient ammount on BTC?

Whats your INFORMED opinnion on this issue, whats your arguments ("I FEEL it wont happen" really doesnt count, so as "i think the banksters will take all your money" also doesnt apply).

(if you dont know what bail-in is dont reply :-) )

[cr1776]

See Cyprus to show bail-ins are possible in Europe. Laws are added when needed.  As far as the wealth tax, it is certainly possible and increasingly likely.

[CMMPro]

Not only possible....probable at some point in the future.

Canada has had some talks about adding the possibility of bail-ins to the next budget...although of course with the addendum of "oh we would NEVER do that, we were just chatting about it in parliament"...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-confiscation-of-savings-in-canada-cyprus-style-bail-ins-proposed-by-ottawa-government/5329263

The US as well...

http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/americans-warned-bank-bail-ins-coming/



Just do a search for "XXX country +bailins" and you will find every country in the world salivating over "the Cyprus experiment".

[Dr Bloggood]

Lol, I'm sure bail-ins are coming here in Europe, believing anything else is very naive. That being said, nobody in the population believes bail-ins are coming...

I'm not sure how it works with national law, but I'm sure the European and US economy are a total mess right now and can only go downhill from here...

I'm not here to write you a 70-page essay about the arguments, but you can read up on it all over the internet in alternative media. Check out pages like zerohedge, King World News, Silver Doctors, Miles Franklin Blog. Just don't believe the mass media, they are just propaganda machines at the moment...

This will be massively bullish for gold, silver and, if governments don't find a way to take it out of the game, for BTC. I think BTC doesn't even have to be used as a currency then, just it being a safe store of value would be enough. That's what I'm talking about in my thread here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=396216.0

[bryant.coleman]

A 10% wealth tax will be horrible. It will be much worse than the Cyprus haircut. And in some cases, it will ruin the people and turn them homeless.

For example, lets consider the example of someone, who is having outstanding loans worth some $100K, lives in a house which is worth $500K, and having no other assets. Now his net wealth is $400K, and @ 10% wealth tax, he will have to pay $ 40,000 to the government. He is having no other asset other than the house. So what he will do? He will have to sell his house immediately, which will make sure that he receives only a fraction of the actual worth. In the end, he will be left homeless, with $200K or something in his hand.

[Dr Bloggood]

...although of course with the addendum of "oh we would NEVER do that, we were just chatting about it in parliament"...

Of course nobody would ever do that!!! It's just a chat in parliament amongst friends, what were you thinking!?

Yeah, I can't believe how naive the people are about this, really. You don't get any real return for your money on a savings account, just a big real loss, and on top of that your money might be bailed in? And you are still leaving it on the account?

A tiny, but smart minority goes the other way and buys precious metals and maybe BTC... and they will be rewarded big time!

But you can also see it that way: If everybody was smart about it, we couldn't gain anything here. Just let the masses of idiots do the main part of paying through inflation and bail-ins...

[btbrae]

The governments that can print will print, the governments that can't print (Euro zone) will be forced to bail-in, cue many concessions and severe austerity. At some point a country will say "no" to these and leave the Euro and that's when the SHTF for the Euro. It was quite close with Cyprus, but the politicians are often bought.

[Mikcik]

Well yeah i have read the articles (mostly on zerohedge), but i think they are quite over-reacting and blowing things out of proportion... Like when science say that they found a micribiological evidence of extraterestrial life and suddenly all news mediea are reporting on scientist founding out little green/grey men... Total overreacting and total blownout of proportion...
I came across these "conspiracy economy theories" (us dollar dead, supression of gold etc. etc.) in aprial 2013, so im quite new to the topic, but i remember that a lot of poeple said that the US (or global) economy will fail in spring 2013, then in summer, 2013, then in autumn, then in winter 2013... and still nothing... And it goes on and on (jsut put "economic collapse YEAR" in youtube search (e.g. economic collapse 2006 or other years) and youll find out that the economic collapse (which bailins are a part of) has been here since i dont know... 2005 or even earlier and still nothing has happened... the world should have ended at least 10 times now (due to economic problems) and still nothing happens. So even when i belive LONG term that th US will fail, there will be quite big economic problems in the world (worlwide stron depresion?) I also belive that the news media (even the alternative ones) are hugely exaggerating the issue... So when they say "Get ready to bailins in europe" i think we are still maybe even years away and it wont be as painfull as they painted out.
Thats why im writting here (probably not the best place due to the over-enthusiastic people around here) for different opinions...

[pening]

Wouldnt it cripple the faith in banks forever...?

Verses a bank collapse?  No.  We have to remember when they talk of bail-in they don't affect those below the threshold of the state guarantees, about €100k.  Their aim is bondholders €billions, converting secured loans to equity precisely to protect the depositors.

[tutkarz]

A 10% wealth tax will be horrible. It will be much worse than the Cyprus haircut. And in some cases, it will ruin the people and turn them homeless.

For example, lets consider the example of someone, who is having outstanding loans worth some $100K, lives in a house which is worth $500K, and having no other assets. Now his net wealth is $400K, and @ 10% wealth tax, he will have to pay $ 40,000 to the government. He is having no other asset other than the house. So what he will do? He will have to sell his house immediately, which will make sure that he receives only a fraction of the actual worth. In the end, he will be left homeless, with $200K or something in his hand.

This is just one person example and it looks nice. But make that x1 000 000 people and you have recipe for a disaster. Who will buy they homes if so many people will be forced to sell it asap? And what will happen with people who have mortgages and they loan will be bigger than they home value? Banks will demand money to cover difference and if you wont pay, they will auction your house. This will make house prices fall dramatically. And probably not only this but cars and other assets too. I don't need to explain what will happen next.

[Mikcik]

But you can also see it that way: If everybody was smart about it, we couldn't gain anything here. Just let the masses of idiots do the main part of paying through inflation and bail-ins...

Totally agree and always agreed on :-)... On the other hand, there nothing as liquid as cash. BTC is still not and option for all savings (becauce GOV can ban it simply, rendering the price really low a really long time).

[bryant.coleman]

And what will happen with people who have mortgages and they loan will be bigger than they home value?

lol... that will be an interesting situation. Net liability greater than net worth. In that case, I think the bankers will ask the individual to do forced labour. 

[Ibian]

Yes, but I would prefer if we call it what it is. Confiscation of private property, robbery, stealing from private bank accounts etc.

All EU countries are governed by the central EU leaders. In the case of my country over half our laws come from them, and the rest that we are allowed to make fall within that framework. I expect the numbers are similar for other countries but have no hard numbers on that. In essence, we are right now living in the United Nations of Europe. It's just not official yet and people like to be in denial about it.

What this means is that what can happen in one EU country can happen in any or all of them. Cyprus was a test case to see what the masses will tolerate. It will happen again, and again and again as long as we have countries going bankrupt.

[ruletheworld]

Surprised no one mentioned this thread yet:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160292.0
This was during the Cyprus bail-in.

[Mikcik]

A 10% wealth tax will be horrible. It will be much worse than the Cyprus haircut. And in some cases, it will ruin the people and turn them homeless.

For example, lets consider the example of someone, who is having outstanding loans worth some $100K, lives in a house which is worth $500K, and having no other assets. Now his net wealth is $400K, and @ 10% wealth tax, he will have to pay $ 40,000 to the government. He is having no other asset other than the house. So what he will do? He will have to sell his house immediately, which will make sure that he receives only a fraction of the actual worth. In the end, he will be left homeless, with $200K or something in his hand.

This is just one person example and it looks nice. But make that x1 000 000 people and you have recipe for a disaster. Who will buy they homes if so many people will be forced to sell it asap? And what will happen with people who have mortgages and they loan will be bigger than they home value? Banks will demand money to cover difference and if you wont pay, they will auction your house. This will make house prices fall dramatically. And probably not only this but cars and other assets too. I don't need to explain what will happen next.

Article about this:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/10/23/why-the-imfs-10-wealth-tax-simply-will-not-work/
also
http://www.forbes.com/sites/billfrezza/2013/10/15/the-international-monetary-fund-lays-the-groundwork-for-global-wealth-confiscation/

Also i would like to add, according to the official page of the IMF (so the default source of this info) (at least i think it was that page :-), dotn have a link now):

The 10% tax would apply only to HOUSEHOLD (not individuals, at least i understand it this way) and only those with NET worth ( wealth-debts= positive) so people with a lot of debts wont be affected (probably?). Also under the phrase "household" i understand that if 2 parents live in one house, still with their children (who already have their income) that all these 4 people would pay only one 10% tax from their net worth (so if you have a net wealth, try moving in with some of your family member that has a lot of debts into one household, and you should be free from taxation :-) ).

[Mikcik]

Yeah i saw that thread but will have to read through it still

"Yes, but I would prefer if we call it what it is. Confiscation of private property, robbery, stealing from private bank accounts etc."

Well i wouldnt really call that, becuase itrs not "true"= not correct for the "masses". When anybody says anything like this, its get dismissed by the "ordinary" people because it just doesnt sound possible, use correct terms, this is NOT one of them (even if in the burden core it is true)
You watch too much max keiser.

[Mikcik]

So about Bailins...

- I think its the "last step", nobody will try it, until its really necessary.
- They might try it once or twice again in some "major country" (in eurozone) and be really worried
- If they tried it for the (i dont know) third time, they will do it in a big scale (for example in ALL troubled banks in eurozone, or european union in general)
Because with each additional bailin, the faith in banks starts to crumble a LOT (!) and theres a big risk of "global" run on banks which nobody can afford. So i think one or twice more, and then suddenly in ALL (troubled) BANKS together at one moment (to prevent run on banks), and say that "its done" all banks are safe now. This would really hurt the faith in banking, but still it wouldnt really destroy it (like a global run on banks probably would).
So we might see 1 or at most 2 bailins in little more important countries (than Cyprus was) and then it goes BIG.
-Bailins apply for ammount ONLY (?) above 100 000 EUR (the smaller ones are insured).

Do you agree with this, or did i miss something?

Should anybody with less than 100 K EUR in a bank account be worried about Bailins?

Also this scenario would be good for the price of bitcoin, maybe a BIG time. Altough if there would be applied also capital controls (like in cyprus when you cannot deposit more then 100 EUR a day for example), and they probably would be in place to manage the panic, its a question how much money would flow in bitcoin since majority of paper money is on bank accounts, and when they are frozen or terrible slowed down, you dont have the money to diversife savings into bitcoin...

whats your take on this?

[LiteCoinGuy]

See Cyprus to show bail-ins are possible in Europe. Laws are added when needed.  As far as the wealth tax, it is certainly possible and increasingly likely.

100%. look in the past (zyprus, great depression etc) to see the future.

[kripto]

The global financial system is a mess and overdue for collapse for many years. The fact that it hasn't collapsed yet is because the (central) banks are able to create currency out of thin air and pump the economy (selected financial institutions and big corporations) while the People gets the inflation part of it in food prices and home bills. On the other hand all big western corporations has almost ceased their domestic production and export it to the East while smaller businesses cannot compete with cheap (for the time being at least) eastern labor and thus consequently fall out of the game.

But all things being finite (not sure about human stupidity though) the game will come to its end eventually. The problem is nobody knows the exact time of the next big black swan effect. All we can do is make our own decisions about our investments and I'm not talking about financial aspect only. Oh yeah, and stop voting! Politicians are all part of the same scam. Their job is to write favourable laws... yeah you guessed it right, they're not in the best interest of the People. So, stop voting and maybe there will be some peaceful change of scenery when the voting participation fall below 10% or so. Well they will probably ignore that signal as well and write some new laws making elections legitimate event at those ridiculous levels.

After all said I cannot imagine a very nice conclusion of the drama we're living in but I still hope I'll be proven wrong. Maybe we can overtake them on the right with cryptos or something. Who knows?

BR

[cr1776]

-Bailins apply for ammount ONLY (?) above 100 000 EUR (the smaller ones are insured).

...

whats your take on this?

In Cyprus they initially planned it in everyone, until there was outrage. I dare say in Cyprus there are very few people keeping over 100k Euros in any one bank now. Likewise if I were in a country and started hearing about bank issues, I would immediately get below the limit.

Then what? Most people do that because they aren't dumb and that means that everyone ends up paying since there is not enough money above the limit to steal, I mean confiscate, I mean, some word that means steal, bit sounds better. :-)