2Th/s Preorder worth it?

[jbbasics]

I have read a lot recently about difficulty increases in the near future. I looked at the recent increases in difficulty and it kinda surprised me... 20-30% increases seem pretty regular. I guess I never really considered how bad this affects my mining. I currently mine at about only 115ghash. I was looking to preorder a 2thash unit but with delivery in April and the amount of large miners hitting the market around then I wonder if that 2th unit will yield about the same as what I am getting now? I did really rough math and I know predicting the future is impossible but with about 6 or more difficulty increases until an Aprilish delivery and a 20% or more loss in profits every difficulty I feel like it may be a loss. I would appreciate any feedback on this. Any others already preorder that feel this way? I definitely have the Bitcoin bug and it is on my mind all the time ( yes I am at work right now.. Ha). I already understand the risks of the preorder market and I am trying to be smart about this purchase even though I just want to pull the trigger and order it! Let me know what you all think. Thanks

[cosmicchaos]

I have read a lot recently about difficulty increases in the near future. I looked at the recent increases in difficulty and it kinda surprised me... 20-30% increases seem pretty regular. I guess I never really considered how bad this affects my mining. I currently mine at about only 115ghash. I was looking to preorder a 2thash unit but with delivery in April and the amount of large miners hitting the market around then I wonder if that 2th unit will yield about the same as what I am getting now? I did really rough math and I know predicting the future is impossible but with about 6 or more difficulty increases until an Aprilish delivery and a 20% or more loss in profits every difficulty I feel like it may be a loss. I would appreciate any feedback on this. Any others already preorder that feel this way? I definitely have the Bitcoin bug and it is on my mind all the time ( yes I am at work right now.. Ha). I already understand the risks of the preorder market and I am trying to be smart about this purchase even though I just want to pull the trigger and order it! Let me know what you all think. Thanks

as far as things stay the way they are, even the cheapest $/THS solution (which appears to be a value around $3), with delivery in mid april (admitting that mid april is a *real* delivery schedule) generates no profit probably for a lifetime. Of course things would change if value of BTC skyrockets in the next months, which is also possible, but actually i would not put $6k in something that has a more than possible risk to became a nice piece of metal and silicon that only serve to make the company profits go good.

As i say again... that is true (just mathematics!!) if conditions stay as they are now.. BTC arount $1k and difficulty doubling almost every month. If difficulty ramp decreases (which is unlikely, with all the guys longing to mine with the TH things...) or BTC goes 3k in a reasonable amount of time (which actually may happen) things would be different. But in my opinion this is far from being a safe bet. do only if you can afford the loss, and you're doing it for "fun".

[empoweoqwj]

I have read a lot recently about difficulty increases in the near future. I looked at the recent increases in difficulty and it kinda surprised me... 20-30% increases seem pretty regular. I guess I never really considered how bad this affects my mining. I currently mine at about only 115ghash. I was looking to preorder a 2thash unit but with delivery in April and the amount of large miners hitting the market around then I wonder if that 2th unit will yield about the same as what I am getting now? I did really rough math and I know predicting the future is impossible but with about 6 or more difficulty increases until an Aprilish delivery and a 20% or more loss in profits every difficulty I feel like it may be a loss. I would appreciate any feedback on this. Any others already preorder that feel this way? I definitely have the Bitcoin bug and it is on my mind all the time ( yes I am at work right now.. Ha). I already understand the risks of the preorder market and I am trying to be smart about this purchase even though I just want to pull the trigger and order it! Let me know what you all think. Thanks

Its a big risk. There is huge amounts of hashing power hitting the market in April, both retail and private ventures. Personally I would avoid it like the plague but I'm not a big risk taker. Why not just buy some  coins instead. Probably be $2K each by April

[Millicent]

Its a big risk. There is huge amounts of hashing power hitting the market in April, both retail and private ventures. Personally I would avoid it like the plague but I'm not a big risk taker. Why not just buy some  coins instead. Probably be $2K each by April

I've only been mining a few months, and altcoins at that.  Trading up to what I want.  If I had to do it over I would probably only buy and sell.

[empoweoqwj]

Its a big risk. There is huge amounts of hashing power hitting the market in April, both retail and private ventures. Personally I would avoid it like the plague but I'm not a big risk taker. Why not just buy some  coins instead. Probably be $2K each by April

I've only been mining a few months, and altcoins at that.  Trading up to what I want.  If I had to do it over I would probably only buy and sell.

Just to be clear - even with altcoin mining, you've been losing money? If so, which altcoins have you been mining?

[Millicent]

Its a big risk. There is huge amounts of hashing power hitting the market in April, both retail and private ventures. Personally I would avoid it like the plague but I'm not a big risk taker. Why not just buy some  coins instead. Probably be $2K each by April

I've only been mining a few months, and altcoins at that.  Trading up to what I want.  If I had to do it over I would probably only buy and sell.

Just to be clear - even with altcoin mining, you've been losing money? If so, which altcoins have you been mining?

I wouldn't say I'm losing money.  I will actually recover my investment within about 8-10 weeks at the current rate.  Now that I've done it though I see that trading would probably have been more profitable.  It's the difference between being the gold miner and the guy at the assay office.  They guy in the assay office makes more and never gets his hands dirty.

Feathercoin, Worldcoin, Netcoin, and briefly a few of the lesser coins IMHO, Dogecoin, Lottocoin, Clockcoin.  None of which I think are going anywhere.  I think the large influx of alt coins is screwing up the marketplace frankly and when enough people that aren't involved deeply enough (ie those buying on eBay for instance) in cryptcoins get burned it will label the whole group as a scam.  I am now sticking with what I consider "value" alt coins, Litecoin, Feathercoin, Worldcoin.  I think there are a few other, but I don't want to bounce around that much.  I need to stay focused.

[empoweoqwj]

Its a big risk. There is huge amounts of hashing power hitting the market in April, both retail and private ventures. Personally I would avoid it like the plague but I'm not a big risk taker. Why not just buy some  coins instead. Probably be $2K each by April

I've only been mining a few months, and altcoins at that.  Trading up to what I want.  If I had to do it over I would probably only buy and sell.

Just to be clear - even with altcoin mining, you've been losing money? If so, which altcoins have you been mining?

I wouldn't say I'm losing money.  I will actually recover my investment within about 8-10 weeks at the current rate.  Now that I've done it though I see that trading would probably have been more profitable.  It's the difference between being the gold miner and the guy at the assay office.  They guy in the assay office makes more and never gets his hands dirty.

Feathercoin, Worldcoin, Netcoin, and briefly a few of the lesser coins IMHO, Dogecoin, Lottocoin, Clockcoin.  None of which I think are going anywhere.  I think the large influx of alt coins is screwing up the marketplace frankly and when enough people that aren't involved deeply enough (ie those buying on eBay for instance) in cryptcoins get burned it will label the whole group as a scam.  I am now sticking with what I consider "value" alt coins, Litecoin, Feathercoin, Worldcoin.  I think there are a few other, but I don't want to bounce around that much.  I need to stay focused.

Thanks for the detailed answer. I agree about focusing on the main altcoins. There are just too many these days, most of which are doomed to go to zero.

But there's no guarantees in "buying and selling" either. Its a zero-sum game. If you are good at it, you can make money. But most people aren't. They try it for a month and realize they have less coins than when they started. Now that professional traders are entering the market, its only going to get harder.

[Millicent]

Its a big risk. There is huge amounts of hashing power hitting the market in April, both retail and private ventures. Personally I would avoid it like the plague but I'm not a big risk taker. Why not just buy some  coins instead. Probably be $2K each by April

I've only been mining a few months, and altcoins at that.  Trading up to what I want.  If I had to do it over I would probably only buy and sell.

Just to be clear - even with altcoin mining, you've been losing money? If so, which altcoins have you been mining?

I wouldn't say I'm losing money.  I will actually recover my investment within about 8-10 weeks at the current rate.  Now that I've done it though I see that trading would probably have been more profitable.  It's the difference between being the gold miner and the guy at the assay office.  They guy in the assay office makes more and never gets his hands dirty.

Feathercoin, Worldcoin, Netcoin, and briefly a few of the lesser coins IMHO, Dogecoin, Lottocoin, Clockcoin.  None of which I think are going anywhere.  I think the large influx of alt coins is screwing up the marketplace frankly and when enough people that aren't involved deeply enough (ie those buying on eBay for instance) in cryptcoins get burned it will label the whole group as a scam.  I am now sticking with what I consider "value" alt coins, Litecoin, Feathercoin, Worldcoin.  I think there are a few other, but I don't want to bounce around that much.  I need to stay focused.

Thanks for the detailed answer. I agree about focusing on the main altcoins. There are just too many these days, most of which are doomed to go to zero.

But there's no guarantees in "buying and selling" either. Its a zero-sum game. If you are good at it, you can make money. But most people aren't. They try it for a month and realize they have less coins than when they started. Now that professional traders are entering the market, its only going to get harder.

Practice makes perfect, those traders didn't become pro's overnight and they weren't born that way.  Get in, learn the tricks, learn from your mistakes and you'll be a pro soon enough.  That being said, you're right it's not for everybody.

[empoweoqwj]

Its a big risk. There is huge amounts of hashing power hitting the market in April, both retail and private ventures. Personally I would avoid it like the plague but I'm not a big risk taker. Why not just buy some  coins instead. Probably be $2K each by April

I've only been mining a few months, and altcoins at that.  Trading up to what I want.  If I had to do it over I would probably only buy and sell.

Just to be clear - even with altcoin mining, you've been losing money? If so, which altcoins have you been mining?

I wouldn't say I'm losing money.  I will actually recover my investment within about 8-10 weeks at the current rate.  Now that I've done it though I see that trading would probably have been more profitable.  It's the difference between being the gold miner and the guy at the assay office.  They guy in the assay office makes more and never gets his hands dirty.

Feathercoin, Worldcoin, Netcoin, and briefly a few of the lesser coins IMHO, Dogecoin, Lottocoin, Clockcoin.  None of which I think are going anywhere.  I think the large influx of alt coins is screwing up the marketplace frankly and when enough people that aren't involved deeply enough (ie those buying on eBay for instance) in cryptcoins get burned it will label the whole group as a scam.  I am now sticking with what I consider "value" alt coins, Litecoin, Feathercoin, Worldcoin.  I think there are a few other, but I don't want to bounce around that much.  I need to stay focused.

Thanks for the detailed answer. I agree about focusing on the main altcoins. There are just too many these days, most of which are doomed to go to zero.

But there's no guarantees in "buying and selling" either. Its a zero-sum game. If you are good at it, you can make money. But most people aren't. They try it for a month and realize they have less coins than when they started. Now that professional traders are entering the market, its only going to get harder.

Practice makes perfect, those traders didn't become pro's overnight and they weren't born that way.  Get in, learn the tricks, learn from your mistakes and you'll be a pro soon enough.  That being said, you're right it's not for everybody.

I believe in the "do something for 10,000 hours to become an expert at it" paradigm. Unfortunately, if you trade for that long, you'll have long lost your coins

[de_ixie]

I have read a lot recently about difficulty increases in the near future. I looked at the recent increases in difficulty and it kinda surprised me... 20-30% increases seem pretty regular. I guess I never really considered how bad this affects my mining. I currently mine at about only 115ghash. I was looking to preorder a 2thash unit but with delivery in April and the amount of large miners hitting the market around then I wonder if that 2th unit will yield about the same as what I am getting now? I did really rough math and I know predicting the future is impossible but with about 6 or more difficulty increases until an Aprilish delivery and a 20% or more loss in profits every difficulty I feel like it may be a loss. I would appreciate any feedback on this. Any others already preorder that feel this way? I definitely have the Bitcoin bug and it is on my mind all the time ( yes I am at work right now.. Ha). I already understand the risks of the preorder market and I am trying to be smart about this purchase even though I just want to pull the trigger and order it! Let me know what you all think. Thanks

Ask 10 people and you get 20 different scenarios - in the end it is entirely up to you - right now I consider no available offer to be worthwhile. High risk - low reward imho. If you insist to mine for some reason best bet still would be Cointerra May batch (April sold out since yesterday I guess, good price, seem reputable) or KnC (high price, good track record, few Neptunes are left, will be sold out soon). All other vendors cause a strange feeling in my stomach. Too much unknown factors, too much risk of failure. Sorry to say it this way. Again - not worth the risk imho. The recent Hashfast debacle again showed - words on paper and promises are worth nothing in this industry.

Before investing check out the scam list first:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366659.0

And also this thread is worth a look. The community tries to rate all ASIC vendors:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=403459.0

[MWNinja]

Why not start mining now with some hosted hashrate instead?  Pre-order is really a huge gamble due to delays upon delays.

[empoweoqwj]

Why not start mining now with some hosted hashrate instead?  Pre-order is really a huge gamble due to delays upon delays.

Does that make money? Which services are worth looking at?

[jbbasics]

Thanks for the responses. I am fine currently mining at 115gh/s...I have searched a lot a I agree that Cointerra is the only company I am willing to purchase from. I may be addicted to mining at this point and will probably order a May batch. I saw april sell out... that's what I get for waiting.  Hashfast seemed somewhat promising but there is too much drama surrounding them now.

I'm thinking that even if difficulty gets crazy (as expected) the demand for nice rigs will still be there with more and more people getting introduced to bitcoin.

[empoweoqwj]

Thanks for the responses. I am fine currently mining at 115gh/s...I have searched a lot a I agree that Cointerra is the only company I am willing to purchase from. I may be addicted to mining at this point and will probably order a May batch. I saw april sell out... that's what I get for waiting.  Hashfast seemed somewhat promising but there is too much drama surrounding them now.

I'm thinking that even if difficulty gets crazy (as expected) the demand for nice rigs will still be there with more and more people getting introduced to bitcoin.

A May batch? Ouch. Lots of stress ahead. Hope it works out for you, and the BTC price is nicely above what it is today

[jbbasics]

Ahhhhh... Don't make me second guess myself.. Haha.

[empoweoqwj]

Ahhhhh... Don't make me second guess myself.. Haha.

Always worth thinking about ..... May is a very long time away measured in bitcoin time. Difficulty will increase more % per month in 2014 than later 2013 .... it wouldn't be fun waiting, I can assure you of that. Is there nobody you can get April delivery from? Save you half the pain

[jbbasics]

Butterfly labs or hashfast... But I feel less confident in their ability to follow through. I have been looking at potentially trading for fun. I am trying to learn more about it for more seasoned traders but haven't had much luck yet.

[empoweoqwj]

Butterfly labs or hashfast... But I feel less confident in their ability to follow through. I have been looking at potentially trading for fun. I am trying to learn more about it for more seasoned traders but haven't had much luck yet.

Trading isn't fun its stressing and honestly, quite tedious, having to watch screens and obsess practically 24-7.

Honestly, its hard work, and as a beginner, you aren't going to make money. Even the best traders in the world started off by losing their shirts because  ..... people have egos, and trading looks easy.

Read some good trading books before you even think about trading.

Remember, there are traders out there that have been doing it 20 years.

Would you sit down at a poker table with pros and expect to leave with a cent?

I feel like I'm trying to put you off everything ... I'm not ... just hoping you are very careful with your money.

Honestly, the safest best is still just buy some bitcoins to start, and don't even think about trading until you've spent a lot of time reading up, and possibly subscribe to a paid service like bitcoinbullbear. I can recommend that at least

[Nagle]

Anything involving a "preorder" probably isn't worth it. You'll end up getting the hardware just as it becomes unprofitable to operate.

[vpasic]

stay away for now.
no mining gear is worth buying right now.
wait for the next generation of miners (5TH-7TH) and be fast!
black arrow is company to go but they sold bunch of miners and by the time you receive yours in May diff will be so high you'l not even ROI.
if you believe that btc will be at 2000-3000 by the summer than go for it! but I don't think so.