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Question: Downtred started?
yes - 47 (20.8%)
maybe - 23 (10.2%)
idk - 33 (14.6%)
maybe not - 29 (12.8%)
no - 94 (41.6%)
Total Voters: 226

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Author Topic: Downtrend started?  (Read 9468 times)
segeln
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January 07, 2014, 02:05:39 PM
 #81

perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Yes !


The green ascending Line is the mid-term upwards-trend. Not been broken yet
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this statement is false


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January 07, 2014, 02:22:02 PM
 #82

perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Yes !


The green ascending Line is the a possible mid-term upwards-trend. Not been broken yet

we'll see... Lips sealed

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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segeln
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January 07, 2014, 03:43:51 PM
 #83

perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Yes !


The green ascending Line is the a possible mid-term upwards-trend. Not been broken yet

we'll see... Lips sealed
in 1 or 2 days it will be resolved
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January 07, 2014, 06:08:53 PM
 #84

perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes




well... I'm not a perma bull, but to answer your question it matters what you mean by "correction". the sub-correction to the smaller uptrend that started ~2 weeks ago, or the big correction to the december ATH. I mean, what's your motivation for the choice of time frame? Not that I take the following as evidence that the correction is over for sure, but here, have a larger broken downtrend in any case Cheesy





Indeed. For comparison, we similarly broke the downtrend in May 2013. The larger bear market remained intact.
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January 07, 2014, 07:17:11 PM
 #85

What confuses me about this Subject is that it asks whether a downtrend is starting during a short term bull in a downtrend that had started a month ago.

Noting volume compared to the upward spike in Nov points toward a continued downtrend regardless of where the price manipulation is.

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January 07, 2014, 08:03:32 PM
Last edit: January 07, 2014, 08:14:30 PM by bambou
 #86

What confuses me about this Subject is that it asks whether a downtrend is starting during a short term bull in a downtrend that had started a month ago.

Noting volume compared to the upward spike in Nov points toward a continued downtrend regardless of where the price manipulation is.

Hello, been following for a while, now stepping in the arena.. Anyho, imho, the periods where there was more volumes are more reliable to extrapolate a trend frame. Hence, i would consider the overall down trend after nov's spike. I believe this short term bull market that occurred within last month was mostly due to low volumes vs. demand (and considering the overwhelming feeling that Bitcoin could be a great success: hodl! Cheesy)

More generally speaking, I would tend to believe that now that people/companies worldwide are showing interest in Bitcoin, the pressure should drop again before starting a more healthy uptrend, which would eventually lead to some other bullrush when even more people actually start using bitcoins. In fact i think this long downtrend pattern went a little bit offtrack this last month because of the feeling that 2013 had been a wonderful year for bitcoin and that 2014 is going to be even better: but, as they say, "one should not sell the bear's fur before killing it"  Grin

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January 07, 2014, 08:28:17 PM
 #87

perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Quote
Yes !
Quote
we'll see... Lips sealed

so, what do you see now ?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/85tAicsz/
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January 07, 2014, 08:30:11 PM
 #88

This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

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January 07, 2014, 08:39:33 PM
 #89

This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

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January 07, 2014, 08:42:31 PM
 #90

Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.
The differential itself decouples for a period of time, not the trend. When that decoupling happens, of course you will perceive that event as a change in trend.

Why does the differential decouple, sometimes to be "sticky" at around 0% (yes, it has been that way sometimes post MtGox withdrawal delay), other times 5%, 10% or 15%? No clue, I think it is a certain randomness since inherent conditions never changed. It used to puzzle me too, now I just accept that even with regard to something as straight forward as this, the market is irrational as a whole at times.
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January 07, 2014, 08:49:57 PM
 #91

This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

Oh the huge manatee!!!
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January 07, 2014, 08:51:28 PM
 #92

This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

You're cute when you're back in troll mode Cheesy

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January 07, 2014, 09:35:10 PM
 #93

This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

Oh the huge manatee!!!

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January 07, 2014, 11:04:52 PM
 #94

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January 07, 2014, 11:47:11 PM
 #95

Many of the people that do TA were around when BTC was worth $2 or $20 or $50. The further back someone goes, I find, generally the harder it is for them to justify the current price in their own minds.

The old myth of the "fair price." A basic human error, catalogued all the way back to Aquinas.
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January 08, 2014, 12:01:38 AM
 #96

Price is taaanking boys. Sell now! it's gonna blooow!

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January 08, 2014, 02:28:45 AM
 #97

The phase of the bull is now in it's decent, mighty dues shall be paid to the KARHU during the Karhunpeijaiset and those who worship rightly will be paid many times their due. There are those who refuse to listen to the prophets of KARHU and continue with their foolish worship of the bull....they too shall pay their dues to the KARHU and it is their choice alone how much they suffer for their intransigence.
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January 08, 2014, 02:48:39 AM
 #98

sources

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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January 08, 2014, 06:43:58 AM
 #99

Price is taaanking boys. Sell now! it's gonna blooow!

[imagine this with a pirate accent]

I just did, but apparently I made a weird face because everyone around is looking....
Thanks Lips sealed
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January 08, 2014, 07:12:03 AM
Last edit: January 08, 2014, 08:22:27 AM by dnaleor
 #100

Ok, you asked for a larger time frame?

Mt.Gox is not (yet) decided...

But when I look at bitstamp...

I become kinda bearish... (fora few weeks probably)
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