Bitcoin Forum

Is this a downtrend or just a correction?

Personally, I believe we will see this downtrend in the next weeks, until we reach the 500 USD levels.

If we compare the china-bubble to the april-bubble, we see some similarities:
After the bubble, we trended down for several weeks from 150 USD towards 65 USD! I do not think we will trend down that much this time, but a downtrend will happen I guess.
After the downtrend, we saw slow growth and a lot of merchant interest. That phase will be bullish for bitcoin, triggering a new bubble.

Thoughts?

Ah yes, the ole speculation without explanation ploy. OP, I see what you are up to.

http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/beartrap.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/beartrap.jpg.html)

 :D

If we compare the china-bubble to the april bubble, we see some similarities:

After the bubble, we trended down for several weeks from 150 USD towards 65 USD! I do not think we will trand down that much this time, but a downtrend will happen I guess.
After the downtrend, we saw slow growth and a lot of merchant interest. That phase will be bullish for bitcoin, triggering a new bubble.

what are talking about? its been in a serious uptrend for 2 weeks.

Just judging by the technical analysis I see, and based on the data coming in from sources from China and such, we're definitely in a downtrend that will probably certainly last between 3 months and 18 months and will go at least as low as the last double channel triple shoulder top a few months ago, just following the trend lines from the 2-3 day moving average oscillator.  That means the price will likely go at least to $78, before rebounding to new ATHs in 2018.  There is black swan chance the price will follow the more dramatic downtrend indicated by the exponential channel and we could see prices retest $2.

Ha ha ha!  :D You really brightened up my day!

 :) ;) :D ;D

yep that's a certainty, and it would be retested from the bottom! because price corrected 1% after going 30% up.

April is so last year and 3 bubbles behind.

All I see here is that the price recently rose $250 way too fast and too little volume so it left the order books really thin. Then naturally the thin space in the order books is now being tested and the gap is being filled. So far all I see is a correction.

If it goes below 850 where that trend is then it might be a downtrend.

 ::)

As usual your TA is shit. It's actually a triple channel double shoulder top. You can lead a llama to water...

Solid analysis.  I mean how can anyone say there is anything remotely wrong with this? 

Back to the original poster, are we even -in- a downtrend?!

Just looked, my bitcoins are up, I don't know about yours :) Not sure what downtrend you're talking about.

You mean like this?

http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/tripletop.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/tripletop.jpg.html)

Or is that just a plain old triple top?

The trend over the past month and a half has been a 'circular' trend. I'll call out "the wheel of fortune".

Yep. Experts (me) refer to it as the "total recall formation." Haven't seen it since 1990.

D...d...d.... downtrend??

Oh... ho ... HO HO...  HO HO HO HO!!!!

 :) :)
 ;) ;)
 :D :D
 ;D ;D

Downtrend?  FFS were you asleep this weekend?

no, but I sold some today. Think the downtrend is starting.

Were those your coins I got at 875 on stamp?

Maybe.

I bought in the previous day at at $830, went for a walk when it was at $950, came back and seen it was $880.

PANIC!! SELL!!...........DONE IT AGAIN DOH!!

Another $1000 worth of profit up in smoke due to me being an over impulsive skittish reactionary fkn clown. So there is a part of me that wants this to be a down-trend kicking in just so I don't feel like such a fuckwit.........certainly arepo has forecasted this possibility and since he came to my attention, he seems to have called things pretty well.

Looking at 15 min chart, obvious downtrend.....but looking at 4 hour chart, who knows?

I am 60% on us seeing a bit of down-time over the next few days. I certainly amn't buying, but I wouldn't be shorting either (if I even could).

You know what? If all you shaky bears would just chill out a little more, then the new confidence seeping into the Bitcoin market would be complete and the long, long, long uptrend we are now going to see - at an average of around +20 per day for months now (with "little" spikes up and then down again to this trend and yes, of course perhaps some short-term bullshit if they execute Bitcoin in China) - would be even steeper!  :)

3 Weeks beginning 12/17/2013
and very stable

MatTheCat I have said it before and I'll say it again. This is no place to be trusting an "expert"! No joke.

For the last two weeks Arepo has been saying that we are going to fall into capitulation. He clearly believed this uptrend was nothing more than part of a final leg down. He can stretch this out ad infinitum if he wants until it finally does come down even a little bit and then point and say "Look see. A bearish triangle!" or something like that. Come on man. Think for yourself.

EDIT: I'm not saying that Arepo isn't an intelligent guy. I'm saying that he seems always to be hedging things and never really admitting (to me anyway!) that he has made a mistake. He got kind of angry when I showed that I had taken on another TA analyst and won at said analyst's odds of 100:1. But despite what he says about respecting the profession and all that, sorry.. but the guy is a TA analyst with all kinds of pretty charts and terms... and he was completely wrong!

no, sold >950 at stamp

I happen to believe that we are in the eye of the storm right now.....

....opportunity to play and make merry, but if you are still out when the storm kicks in again........

This is just my belief, just as you have your beliefs although neither of us are qualified enough to say what is actually going to happen. From a mish-mash of our hopes, fears, reasoning, with just tiny smattering of logic, we build up our Bitcoin paradigms. Time will tell whose paradigm serves who the best. If I am wrong, then you make loadsa profit and I am left at the sidelines once again. If I am right, then I avoid losing heavily, perhaps picking up lots of cheap coins in process.

But returning to this China thing, we have seen a massive revival in Bitcoin where on all the major exchanges, it spiked just below a very significant resistance level, we are now trending down on the short term chart. When China wakes up in a few hours and they see that Bitcoin just failed to break through a major resistance level, with Bitcoin only having 3 more weeks to live in China, with gains and/or recovered losses in Bitcoin that many thought they would never see but with Bitcoin now trending down; what are they most likely gonna do?

btw....the spike up was Chinese lead, the correction was lead by western exchanges, especially Bitstamp.

All I can say is that the Chinese love Bitcoin!  :D  (Maybe too much!!  :D)

This simply is not true.

They might have been mine.

I impulse panic sold at $880! Funniest of all is that I had just 60 minutes earlier paid $931 for for 5 of them, the remaining 17 I paid £835 for.......

.......this is the second time I have cost myself dearly due to babysitting/checking charts at inopportune moments. In my defense, Bitcoin moves far too rapidly and schizophrenically.


Is it? Isn't it?

I dont fkn know. All I have got to go on is 2nd rate rumours and 3rd rate corporate media reports. But if it is true, then it is bad. It has to be bad. It can't possibly be anything other than bad.....if it were to be true.

Where do you see a downtrend?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/as4MshGB/

It is a stable and bullish up- trend now Lasting 3 weeks

Well honestly I don't know for sure either, but it sounds like worst case scenario the Chinese exchanges are shut down.  However, I don't think this will happen.  It will simply be much harder to get CNY in and out of exchanges.  In any event, it is wealthy Chinese investing in Bitcoin.  Not being able to liquidate through a domestic bank isn't a huge deal to them.  The world is a big place and it makes sense to own a chunk of something that could appreciate dramatically in the future.

Its not DOwntrednd
Its stablizing market, 100$ up and down is actually nothing in Bitcoin Market now, but as much as it swings and upwards slowly that will stablize for that point like 550$ and now 900$. Why we think if there is 2-3 Candle downwards then its downtrend.
I saw some thread about China,
Nothing is going to happen in China now, China's Volume are already picking Up in HongKong, If china will be closed then 796 will be the next world's largest exchange where chinese used to trade and if we all notice now That market is leading in Price and in volume with MtGox, Bitstamp, BTCe and BTC China. If China market will be closed then HongKong will get all the Volumes from Huobi and OKCoin which are the largest volume trader now so nothing to worry about it, Chinese people are themself worried for trading and investing in Bitcoin so they already started backup in HongKong.
Bitcoin will uptrend always be sure for that and believe in that.

Good Luck

Seriously, and I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but you need to stop trading.

You know purely from a cold-hearted perspective sometimes I think it would be good for the Bitcoin market if the exchanges did just shut down totally - a clean break - as then there would be no more psychological drama. I really believe Bitcoin would go up super-steady (as opposed to just very steady  :D) if this happened.

It's true, but it's not the complete story.  With only 3 more weeks of life in China, bitcoin will be free to enter the downward trend I described earlier, which is also backed up by good solid technical analysis and sources, again most of the best sources are in Chinese but also in other non-English and hard to read languages for English readers.

Be prepared for anything, including a retest of $2 and possibly $1 as the strength of the downtrend develops.  And don't rule out complete failure of bitcoin at the end of the coming long slow slide.  2014 will certainly be one of the worst years in bitcoin history.  If it survives, we might see $100 again, but it's just probably certainly unlikely, I'd say with certainty.

I really don't understand why all these people are panic selling let alone buying in during spikes. My basic game plan is buy low or exchange alt to btc then sell high. So I buy in at $xxx.xx price and then I set a target of $xxx.xx. Once I hit that target I sell. The key is to not be greedy and play smart. You can ALWAYS buy back in and ride the horse some more after picking a new target. Just my .02 cents of investing. So far it has worked out for me quite well. Just purchase a new 4K tv and EOS70D thanks to our BFF BTC. With all that being said I feel that BTC will hit a downward trend pretty soon. As some people have previously mentioned, once again it blew up way to fast. But on a positive note I have noticed that with each blow up they have slowed down a pretty good amount. Leading me to believe that after a few more times of this we will actually start to see steady growth between $800-1100.


One of my biggest fears is the release of dedicated Scrypt ALT Coin miners (pretty sure I just botched the official name of these lol). If these actually come into fruition in the next few months, I could see them hurting the alt currency world.

Are you gone Crazy???? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Or you are just wake up from a Bad Dream????
What i Guarantee you is BTC is Never going to go back then $500 now.
If you have any Logic or you are just fucking telling you Dream?
Dont Dream that you could buy BTC again in Less then $500. China is something not everything Note that.

Dude, he's joking around :)

Or the Chinese government could simply apply the Secret Satoshi Escape code, speed up the process, and steal everybody's coins, convert them to yuan, refuse to buy this spring's U.S. Treasury bonds (crashing the dollar), and take over the world, except for North Korea, which doesn't participate.

Methinks there is a program out there which generates accounts spamming Primedice advertisements on this forum. Influx of new users which post incomprehensible gibberish and all of them have primedice promo link in their signature. Pattern! Easy way to make money, they think. Turn the forum into a dump, they do.

So after the Juni11 bubble it took nearly 2 years to reach that level again(30$). After the april13 bubble it took 6 months to reach that level again(250$). And now, how long will it take to see the level of the november bubble again (1200$)? 24 months, 6 month, 1.5month?

I like that forecasts :) ("eehh, last time it was 6month, so now it will be 6 month again")

Around 1.5 months then.... Oh golly! Everything fits so perfectly!  :o

Thanks for that!  ;)

Price went from 130 to 65 in July because MtGox froze all fiat withdrawals for two weeks^_TM. Such a thing has not happened this time around, so we are not in a downtrend, but more uncharted territory.

I don't think this had anything to do with it.

I smell more than a small correction to the uptrend here. We'll see. :D

I sense this is either a bull trap or the mother of all bear traps. If it's a bear trap, we're going to the moon, guys. I'm confused as hell and have never seen BTC behave this way before, so I'm hodling as I already broke even on USD (even without the $997 Mt Gox owes me). I'm riding this badger all the way up or down. YEE Haw!!

I think you need some HODL therapy. I've heard it works wonders. :P

you've been here quite some time to say you've never seen it behave this way... i wouldn't say it's anything out of the ordinary besides the obvious differences in price environment.

I'm really looking forward to this, other people's capitulation equals further consolidation for those who do not blind themselves to the unfurling reality. We shall see the true depth of the newly invested's levels of belief as the year(s) roll on.

What I mean is this is not usual post-rally behavior. First of all, it's the first "bubble" (actually it's a rally because BTC never goes again below it's pre-bubble price) with a double top. It's proportionally much smaller than the 2011 and April rallies, and volatility hasn't dropped much yet. Consolidation should occur in the $700-$800 range, yet it's over %80 of the ATH. Just weird. I was counting on being bored for three months. Now I'm just confused. Maybe it's just the fact that my stash is worth so much more now that makes me nervous. We're talking serious coin on the line now. It's like WSOP final table. play to get in the money or play to win? lock in a fortune or go for multi-generational wealth? I guess that's a good problem to have! ;-)

Talk about retarded making polls with more than Yes or No answers, especially a simple question like this

Why cant you do both? Lock in a small fortune and using poker terms, go for a freeroll for multigenerational wealth. Thats my play if i had as many coin as I think you might have :)

I'm still an order or two of magnitude away from doing that. I bought in around $10/BTC, not $0.10/BTC ;-)

Giving yourself a few years for a downtrend seems like a sensible analysis to me!  :D

A big correction certainly lurks ahead, but $78 is just delusional.

Never ever? Never ever ever.

I'm seeing massive negative sentiment. Yeah, I know the graphs are looking scary, but with this much gloom, I'm wondering if it might be overdone a little bit.

What gloom are you referring to? To me it seems the sentiment on the forum is "omg wall street and new commericial adoption. btc straight to the moon gagnam style"

I wouldn't say that + $20 / +30 per day is gangnam style, but it certainly is very positive, very rewarding, very steady and... very normal according to the  log scale... growth.

I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.  

well, how do you gauge the market then? not using patterns of any sort, oh no, i'm sure :P price history is completely irrelevant right?

My secret indicator says big move starting in the next 5 minutes... let's see.

It's that new law of physics made for bitcoin: "what doesn't go down, must come up".

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

Price history is not irrelevant but if you only look at things on an hourly level you are doing things in an insane fashion.

In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown. Danger lurked around every corner and chance events changed the price drastically. That's why looking at things on too small a scale is insane - there is too much chance involved.

But looking at history is in fact important for a different reason. Look at the whole picture, the bubbles coming closer together, the price constantly rising, and what do you get?

It is normal and logical to presume that the next "bubble" has already started. There has never been a level of general confidence in BTC like today - never. Hell, the US government was talking about banning it a year or two ago. BANNING!!! And BTC pulled through. But what is the US government saying now eh? And Wall Street? And e-commerce? etc. etc. etc.

Confidence is taking a quantum leap forward and this is why so many analysts will fail here. They cannot see past their calculations to feel the real market psychology right now, which is just as much based on maths as an argument with my wife is based on maths!!!  :D

ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this.

i know it seems insane, but during tense "decision points" where the market decides whether or not to break a multi-week trendline, a 2-hour breakout can signal a reversal on larger scales. ;)

You may very well be right. I have often had the same sentiments.

However, two things to note.

First your sentiment maybe over zealous as, even if it is true, there is a lag between bitcoin enthusiasm, innovation, development, fandom and fresh fiat into the exchanges.

Second, if you are right, you will never convince most that do TA, because in my experience, most who do TA on this forum do not feel that the current price of Bitcoin is justified. They have an opinion about what bicoin is really worth and a majority feel it is worth <$1000 today.  So they have no qualms about ignoring factors like you mentioned, because they have already made up their minds that they disagree.

Many of the people that do TA were around when BTC was worth $2 or $20 or $50. The further back someone goes, I find, generally the harder it is for them to justify the current price in their own minds.

The four year log chart is all I need. if it goes down too much, I buy a little. If it goes up too fast, I sell a little. I only buy with money from previous sell orders and never sell more than the percentage of the price gain. no prediction necessary except an upward price bias.

so you're saying that daytrading fares little better than chance? if so, i can respect that, because it is the opposite conclusion of most who use technical analysis. what i hate most is the naysayers who still try to daytrade based on what? gut feeling? i don't even know. but the price is either a random walk, or it exhibits nonrandom behavior which can be exploited for profit. there is little in-between...

--arepo

gut feeling is worthless. I only tried it twice. the last time was last weekend when I thought five days up was enough and I was counting on a weekend dip to pick up a coin on the cheap. that didn't work out so well. the time before that was in 2011 when I maxed out my credit cards and took a loan to buy at $6-$17/BTC. pretty happy I did that now.

Here is the Extension to 1/10/2014 of the up-trend since 12/18/2013
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yaCraOkm/

critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again ??? gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...

Arepo, since you make a lot of informative quality posts, what could be reasons for this decoupling? Manipulation?
(sorry if this is a noob question, only trying to get informed :) )

Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

haha thanks but that doesn't really make me a 'trusted source' or anything of the like. i would recommend you thoroughly fact-check anything anyone says on these forums.

that being said, i have absolutely no clue :P perhaps the consolidation price at gox is lower compared to the bottom support so even though it isn't straying far it is actually threatening to break down, as well. bitstamp is really taking a tumble though it doesn't really add up...

i would trust bitstamp over gox, though, at this point. last night's shut-down-in-the-middle-of-the-night-time-dump was realllly suspicious.

--arepo

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.

People eager to cash out go to Stamp, When they want to cash out, maybe they are more prone to panic selling.

yes i was thinking something like this. why even bother selling on gox? that is so absurd though it invalidates gox data by a serious degree...

perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  ::)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oF90g1kz/

well... I'm not a perma bull, but to answer your question it matters what you mean by "correction". the sub-correction to the smaller uptrend that started ~2 weeks ago, or the big correction to the december ATH. I mean, what's your motivation for the choice of time frame? Not that I take the following as evidence that the correction is over for sure, but here, have a larger broken downtrend in any case :D


https://i.imgur.com/QhqKsCx.png

Yes !
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UjMGvgEy/

The green ascending Line is the mid-term upwards-trend. Not been broken yet

we'll see... :-X

in 1 or 2 days it will be resolved

Indeed. For comparison, we similarly broke the downtrend in May 2013. The larger bear market remained intact.

What confuses me about this Subject is that it asks whether a downtrend is starting during a short term bull in a downtrend that had started a month ago.

Noting volume compared to the upward spike in Nov points toward a continued downtrend regardless of where the price manipulation is.

Hello, been following for a while, now stepping in the arena.. Anyho, imho, the periods where there was more volumes are more reliable to extrapolate a trend frame. Hence, i would consider the overall down trend after nov's spike. I believe this short term bull market that occurred within last month was mostly due to low volumes vs. demand (and considering the overwhelming feeling that Bitcoin could be a great success: hodl! :D)

More generally speaking, I would tend to believe that now that people/companies worldwide are showing interest in Bitcoin, the pressure should drop again before starting a more healthy uptrend, which would eventually lead to some other bullrush when even more people actually start using bitcoins. In fact i think this long downtrend pattern went a little bit offtrack this last month because of the feeling that 2013 had been a wonderful year for bitcoin and that 2014 is going to be even better: but, as they say, "one should not sell the bear's fur before killing it"  ;D

This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

The maddest senior troll of them all!  :)

The differential itself decouples for a period of time, not the trend. When that decoupling happens, of course you will perceive that event as a change in trend.

Why does the differential decouple, sometimes to be "sticky" at around 0% (yes, it has been that way sometimes post MtGox withdrawal delay), other times 5%, 10% or 15%? No clue, I think it is a certain randomness since inherent conditions never changed. It used to puzzle me too, now I just accept that even with regard to something as straight forward as this, the market is irrational as a whole at times.

Oh the huge manatee!!!

You're cute when you're back in troll mode :D

You rang?

http://s7.directupload.net/images/140108/xx5lmhlv.png (http://www.directupload.net)

The old myth of the "fair price." A basic human error, catalogued all the way back to Aquinas.

Price is taaanking boys. Sell now! it's gonna blooow!

[imagine this with a pirate accent]

The phase of the bull is now in it's decent, mighty dues shall be paid to the KARHU during the Karhunpeijaiset and those who worship rightly will be paid many times their due. There are those who refuse to listen to the prophets of KARHU and continue with their foolish worship of the bull....they too shall pay their dues to the KARHU and it is their choice alone how much they suffer for their intransigence.

sources

I just did, but apparently I made a weird face because everyone around is looking....
Thanks :-X

Ok, you asked for a larger time frame?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gZ3T8itQ/
Mt.Gox is not (yet) decided...

But when I look at bitstamp...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z3nJjlez/
I become kinda bearish... (fora few weeks probably)

It is going up again:


https://www.tradingview.com/x/V3lSVlNp/

I didn't say I'm not bearish :D Just that I still disagree with your analysis. You continue looking at a time frame of the latest uptrend (the one that started at around Christmas), and then show (correctly, as I would say) that this trend broke. But then your conclusion is actually much larger than that: you say your outlook "for a few weeks" is bearish. I don't know how you would come to that conclusion, unless you add a large dose of EW axioms (which I am extremely skeptical about).

At bitstamp, the trend is definitely broken. Check this 4h chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XZvnz8FE/

But gox is still struggeling. We will enter a bearish fase for a couple of weeks if that happens.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pEvLmU5H/

not yet

https://www.tradingview.com/x/o4Gc2QLv/

God.

U would redraw that line everytime.

We are 20% from the high of 48 hours ago. Seems like a bit of a downtrend to me, or is 20% underwater in 2 days simply 'consolidating'?

dnaleor, come on man, work with me here :D

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?

nothing very TA there, but i would assume that increasing impatience would be some kind of an indicator. I mean, reaching 1200$ in only 1 month and trying to consolidate the month after must have led to some more speculators being impatient for the next wave. Hence they would be more sensible to downward variation in price as the euphoria from last rally is calming down: bear market here we go.

one thing interesting would be to measure the speculation forum's traffic to figure when people are getting impatient/agitated?!

+1  Be brave man!! No reason to fear a two week bear market with all this bouyant weightlessness!   ;)

just a "gut feeling", no TA:

I just think we went towards 1000 usd too fast (even for bitcoin).
There was only 5 days with BTC price above 1000 USD in the "china bubble" (excluding gox here, because who wants to cash out there anyway?). That is not enough time for triggering people cashing out. As a result, we saw the crash. Some people regret that they were too greedy and did not cash out above 1000 USD. So when 1000 USD is approached again, people tend to sell.

We need slow growth to have less volatility. I was certain the recent uptrend would trigger some volatility so decided to watch the market closely when we approched 900+ USD.

I am a longterm bull and do not want to cash out. I believe in a world with BTC as main currency. But sometimes, it is not bad to keep some distance from your investment and "feel the market". I only trade the "large trends" and this was an opportunity I took.

PS: I never sell during a rally with new ATHs, because it is very unpredictable how high the top will be.
PPS: When I sell, I want to buy more BTC. I do not want to have my profit in dirty fiat.

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a  beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zWcUbgMw/

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China.  :-\

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say.  There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

+1 - there is a lot coming now and to come and this is why the price is so bouyant - market sentiment is actually good!

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

also, @ roeland, trading on "gut feeling" is a terrible idea that will yield results worse than chance. you will end up lagging sentiment instead of leading it and will be pick-pocketed by every better trader.

After the april bubble and crash and rebounce uptrend, there was no bad news either. We just slided down from 180 USD to 65 USD in a couple of months. I do not think such a large downtrend will happen due to the fact that we have more media exposure and users, but a small one, yes, that is a real possibility...

so you think  News  like or won`t affect Prices?
Not really,or?

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

I truely believe in bitcoin and much good stuff is coming. Hope that no other countries adopt the Chinese way of enforcing bitcoin.
Bitcoin is resilient enough to survive and keep on going as long as the internet is not censured. Bitcoin keeps recovering from these "glitches" which proves that bitcoin is really good.

Well I'm in for atleast 3 years of Hodling and gathering more. Either I make it big or I lose trying :)

That`s rabulistic or hair-splitting

first option: it does, because the market cannot absorb it, the rest will panic sell

second option: it does, my estimate is beyond $1...

I completely agree

Additionally I would just call this a correction and not a "Downtrend".  Were already off the lows and the exchanges look healthier than they did 24 hours ago.

it's actually a very important distinction.

what the bad news may have done was turn a natural market correction into a bit of panic-selling, that's all, but there's not even any way of knowing! there's no way to quantify the news' effect on price, and that causes a lot of problems in trying to anticipate it in any real way. the price doesn't respond to news in the binary way you imagined when you used the phrase "force in a downtrend" and that's exactly the point i was trying to make.

--arepo

In any case, and perhaps off the point, but the panic element of the selling has been quite subdued from what I can see. Obviously a good thing (unless you're a trader who loves trading on panic!).

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

KARHU respects your wisdom, you will prosper for the duration of Karhunpeijaiset. It is regrettable that fools do not heed your warnings.

arepo, no offence meant, but for me it is still hair-splitting

Fucking well said!

Show me a link to your pay TA report.


China?

From what I seen Bitstamp lead the drop down by a country mile.

Unless of course Chinese coin has started making its way over to Bitstamp to cash out into foreign currencies.....now there is a thought for the bulltards!?

Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time? :D

then you're not understanding. there is not even an empirical way to show that bad news causes price to fall, or good news the opposite. the claim that news affects price in this way is indefensible. it's obvious that news affects price in some way, but it is unclear how.

basically, you're positing that you know how news affects price. we both can agree that news does affect price. this is a very, very important distinction.

What it is this new attitude that btc is like a stock and only responds to news events? In the past years, btc would move plenty on its own and we didnt need news - we just used TA. Sometimes businesses and users just have a bunch of coins they need to unload to retrieve fiat or pay invoices. It is a transactional currency that is used for business and not just speculation, and even many of the speculators are following TA or their own needs and whims - not news.

now I agree

with the odd notable exceptions, it seems to me that the price moves in a direction, and people scramble to find the news that fits the price movement.

Two days ago: Bitcoin goes over $1000 on Zynga news (Bullshit, it was the spike of an uptrend that spanned 9 days)

Yesterday: Bitcoin plummets on China ASIC Mining Station Ban (Bullshit, it was an 9 day uptrend spike reversing)

I guess it makes people feel that they understand wtf is going on without having to get out their calculators and work with complicated equations. People like thinking they understand wtf is going on, it makes them feel as though they are in control, even though they are not.

We have a peculiar phenomena with Bitcoin in that Bitcoin's price action over the past 2 years has proven to complete idiots, that their complete idiocy was 100% right!

Hence the pervasiveness of the 'Bitcoin Nutter'.

It is the flock that is looking for fiat profits.  These people don't truly understand the potential of bitcoin and are easily swayed by arguments based primarily on emotion (aka, news).  Once this round is fully fleeced, we can move on to our next round of growth.

Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices.

Good luck. ;)

Sorry to say but you are not sane :) LOL

But have you checked the most recent non-English bad news sources?  The downtrend will likely be indefinite and ultimately culminate in the complete failure of the market.  Especially since bitcoin usefulness and saturation has been maxed out.  There's really just no more upside potential here.

Additionally, bitcoin is not a sustainable technology. Following basic logic we can see that since it is not a sustainable technology, the price can not be sustained. "Where do we go from here" you ask? Grasscoin. Grasscoin is the future of home-grown cryptos.

Grasscoin, where the surface meets the sky. ™

Grasscoin poised to have a breakout year!

humanitee, do you know how to code?  I do not, and regardless whether you do, we should create a proper crytocurrency that fixes all the problems with bitcoin. 

proudhoniteecoin?  humanidhoncoin?

I am actually a "1337 coder", as the kids say. First thing we need to recode is the name. Too many "coins," we need something catchier.


I like where this is going. Proudmanbling?

May I suggest HubrisCoin

I suggest passiveaggressiveunironicallyironicpermabullcoin.

Plus a little Kanye West and Doge. Forgot about that.

Mmmmm, yes, yes, "coin" carries all the baggage of both failed government money and the failed bitcoin experiment.  "bling" is a good proposal as it captures the hipness and innovative nature of our project.

Ah, blitz, there you are. Would you like to be on the board of our as-yet-unnamed-coin-but-not-called-coin foundation?  We're going to need somebody to represent our project to governments and such.

Sure, but only if I get my share on the premine.

But then Sunny King will come out with aggressivecoin which is minted off feelings, making my coin obsolete.




Ok, it's settled. Now, we need to get "infrastructure" which, as far as I can tell, equates to a dodgy gambling site. I'll get to work on this.

Also I was thinking, what about manifesting our blockchain into reality, so that you can wear it? ZeroHedge will love it. Blingchain for Proudmanbling. The future is nigh.

edit: Proudhon, you know Max Keiser personally right? Can we get in touch with him? It's obvious that this is truly the most innovative coin yet.

In a meeting with Ben Bernanke and Satoshi right now.  I'll get back to this later tonight.

I know a smattering of rails, and very little about security. I'll get right on a leveraged exchange, I've registered passiveaggressiveunironicallyironicpermabullcoinica.com

I know all about "security".  Here, use my rails fork: https://github.com/yrral86/rails

Just make sure you frequently update your gems so you will always have the latest "security" patches.  I will also gladly review your code for "security" vulnerabilities, for the good of the coin bling, of course.  Just let me know when mining starts.

Rofl,  I can just imagine people 'mining' in front of their computers, forming grimaces like constipated trolls.  

According to my chart, the uptrend has picked up after all...
(15 min chart)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/T6dlSXqi/

(4h chart)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ch87zlb4/

But I have sold only above 900 USD, so I will wait a little bit more to see the uptrend confirmed before I buy back in the remaining part.
I already bought a lot <800 USD, so in any case, I have a nice proifit :D

Did not you notice, BTC is history now, so no TA makes sense anymore - advanced superior new coin which has much longer name will replace it in a matter of days.

i am watching the charts and it seems like all wait for huobi to break through the 5100 cny.
when huobi gets close to 5100 cny the other exchanges' volumes go down and wait for huobi... but the chinese take their profit and it goes down again. it just happend the third time.
so i cant really see an up or down trend at the moment. i went short @900$ and still unsure when to buy in again.

AHA! you seem to have early knowledge! Please point me to the location where we can secure some options to this new superior coin!
 ;)

Coinbling newbie here.  Sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in. 

Will there be coinbling charts?   Tough to "bling up" without 'em.

Oh, wait, I meant "bilng up". 

Watch this clear sideward-movement since 1/8/2014

https://www.tradingview.com/x/AGMdVBr0/

Hey there. Please change your username immediately. You are very much not "too dumb for Bitcoin". You are exactly the right kind of dumb for it!

Bumped this. It appears that I was sane enough, since Gox hit 130$, which is closer to 80$ than to 300$.
Of course, this could only happen so fast on a disfunctional exchange, that should have halted trading days ago.

i think the downtrend has started

Thanks for sharing your irrelevant thoughts.

yes the downtrend started, but that was 9 months ago.

atleast necro some bear troll threads  :)

Thanks for sharing your irrelevant thoughts.

Ah, the memories. Back when the retardobulls (me included) gave dnaleor a hard time for suggesting we might enter a bear market, maybe even for a several weeks...

We were so naive back then *sniff*.

:-)
I never thought that this downtrend would last so long...

Almost no one did, except for masterluc, who I personally believe to be George Soros who's fucking with all of us by "predicting" the market, then making it go there by sheer force :P

LOL @ this post.. bear traps at the highs of 2014. Bears who sold or shorted at that date are laughing all the way to the bank.

in retrospect I sold not enough coins. I sold 5% of my stash, should have sold at least 50% when I called this downtrend...
oh well... we all learn from our mistakes ;)