MEGA note to newbies.. we are NOT in the era of mining using PC's.. so its now based on ASICS equipment
the figure of venezuela's 'cost' is just the electricity price. and does not consider the cost of the ASIC's needed.
also its not really a geography lessoon its a math lesson
(note anyone that was following my asic cost/btc maths a few months back... ASICS were $3k a unit last batch)
for those that love math
get the network hashrate(30,616,246) based on recent stat on
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rateget the price of a S9 ($3000) - - previous batch
get the price of a S9i +PSU ($938) - - next batch delivered June
https://shop.bitmain.com/?lang=enthen basing it on a 1 year longevity of the s9 before upgrading
knowing bitcoin makes ~1800btc a day *365days
=657000btc/year
30,616,246 /14 = amount of asics running the network
=2186875 asics
cost of all asics
previous batch=2186874.714285714*3000
=$6,560,624,143
next months batch=2186874.714285714*938
=$2,051,288,482
then cost per 1btc can be worked out
$6,560,624,143/657000= cost per 1btc previous batch
=$9985
$2,051,288,482/657000= cost per 1btc next months batch
=$3122
excel
cell A1=hashrate in terra hashs
cell A2=cost of s9
cell A3=(((A1/14)*A2)/657000)
...
i based my costs/btc to estimate bitcoins base level value support on the previous batch, which in the last 3 months of hashrate variance. put the value between $6523 (excel A1=20000000 A2=3000) and $9784 (excel A1=30000000 A2=3000)
which seemed to be the area that bitcoin was trading at $6523-$9787 (so i was happy with that). because of course miners would be stupid to sell for less, so yes they would have a support line at their cost
without knowing the future hashrate for when the june batch arrives. i wont attempt to estimate the 'cost'/btc in the future. ill leave that for speculators
i can see some pools who already might have received privelidged access to the new batch are reaping the benefits which explains why the exchange price supports are going down below last batches 'cost'/btc
.. but i will say as ASIC farms update thier equipment as old equipment fails/farms expand and re-acess their costs. if the whole network was to do a complete swap out in june(not gonna happen that quick so relax) then by time they are all running, then.
the hashrate would need to be about 60exahash(60m terrahash) to keep a mining support above $6k/coin
the hashrate would need to be about 90exahash(90m terrahash) to keep a mining support above $9k/coin
but again. without knowing how many asic farms will switch in june. and what the actual hashrate would be.. ill leave the future price support lines to speculators to estimate