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Author Topic: Let's recap on what we've seen in the past few months  (Read 11927 times)
kiwiasian
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September 02, 2011, 03:54:58 AM
 #1

We started at $32.

We saw a seemingly stable 17.
It went down.

We had a seemingly stable 13.
It went down.

Stable 10.
Guess? Ah, you're right, it went down.

Now we're at 8. Guess what will happen?

Honestly, anyone who thinks it will go up is too optimistic.

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NothinG
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September 02, 2011, 03:57:11 AM
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I think it will go up, sue me.

Bitcoin Swami
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September 02, 2011, 04:46:41 AM
 #3

We started at $32.

We saw a seemingly stable 17.
It went down.

We had a seemingly stable 13.
It went down.

Stable 10.
Guess? Ah, you're right, it went down.

Now we're at 8. Guess what will happen?

Honestly, anyone who thinks it will go up is too optimistic.

were we at a stable 32?
GoWest
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September 02, 2011, 05:27:53 AM
 #4

were we at a stable 32?

When?

Nagle
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September 02, 2011, 05:33:43 AM
 #5


Bitcoin, the last six months.  (Purple line is the 30 day trailing moving average)

That chart pretty much says it all: a speculative bubble, followed by a long, slow slide. For the last two months, the price has dropped about $4 per month.

That's Bitcoin.
hugolp
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September 02, 2011, 05:55:26 AM
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Bitcoin, the last six months.  (Purple line is the 30 day trailing moving average)

That chart pretty much says it all: a speculative bubble, followed by a long, slow slide. For the last two months, the price has dropped about $4 per month.

That's Bitcoin.

Sorry but speculative bubbles go the other way arround, the have a more or less continued increase in price and then they collapse quickly. Exactly the opposite of Bitcoin.
ThomasV
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September 02, 2011, 05:57:12 AM
 #7

you bought high? don't miss this opportunity, sell while it is low

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September 02, 2011, 08:47:15 AM
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That chart pretty much says it all: a speculative bubble, followed by a long, slow slide. For the last twenty years, the price has dropped about $8 per month.

That's gold.

Are you saying the historical chart has predictive power?
NothinG
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September 02, 2011, 09:02:13 AM
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That chart pretty much says it all: a speculative bubble, followed by a long, slow slide. For the last twenty years, the price has dropped about $8 per month.

That's gold.

Are you saying the historical chart has predictive power?

EVENTUALLY, it will go back up.

hugolp
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September 02, 2011, 11:42:13 AM
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That chart pretty much says it all: a speculative bubble, followed by a long, slow slide. For the last twenty years, the price has dropped about $8 per month.

That's gold.

Are you saying the historical chart has predictive power?


Yes, I think he means we are in 1975. Cheesy
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September 02, 2011, 12:49:32 PM
 #11

My guess is that Bitcoin is not attracting any new people at the moment that's why the slow slide (because of new Bitcoins being constantly generated).
That will probably only change once Bitcoin becomes more useful, i.e. more tools and programs have been developed, which might take a few months.

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Jixtreme
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September 02, 2011, 02:17:41 PM
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Honestly, anyone who thinks it will go up is too optimistic.

Eventually, Bitcoin will go back up. Its fundamentals are too strong not to.

The question is when.

-Jix
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September 02, 2011, 02:24:30 PM
 #13

Honestly, anyone who thinks it will go up is too optimistic.

Eventually, Bitcoin will go back up. Its fundamentals are too strong not to.

The question is when.

-Jix
Easy

When the hashing power has decreased and rigs were sold. But yeah people are in denial, that's what gives scam artists alternate cryptocurrencies a free hand.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
Synaptic
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September 02, 2011, 02:25:24 PM
 #14

My guess is that Bitcoin is not attracting any new people at the moment that's why the slow slide (because of new Bitcoins being constantly generated).
That will probably only change once Bitcoin becomes more useful, i.e. more tools and programs have been developed, which might take a few months.
Honestly, anyone who thinks it will go up is too optimistic.

Eventually, Bitcoin will go back up. Its fundamentals are too strong not to.

The question is when.

-Jix

Bitcoin is flawed.

Bitcoin is actually extremely flawed...

Though the lay man might not understand the finer technical details enough to comprehend the flaws in the Bitcoin system, the entire mystique surrounding the scam is just foul enough to impart the wisdom to stay away.
Gerken
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September 02, 2011, 02:30:43 PM
 #15

Honestly, anyone who thinks it will go up is too optimistic.

Eventually, Bitcoin will go back up. Its fundamentals are too strong not to.

The question is when.

-Jix

I see this posted a lot.  Could you clarify exactly what you mean by "fundamentals are too strong"?

grod
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September 02, 2011, 02:34:14 PM
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When the hashing power has decreased and rigs were sold. But yeah people are in denial, that's what gives scam artists alternate cryptocurrencies a free hand.

Deepbit disagrees with you.  Over the past month the hash rate there (measured, not estimated) has gone from 5 terahash to 5.5 terahash.   It was going up 50 gigahash a day as the price went below $10, and has since flatlined -- but it has not decreased in any measurable way.

*MY* remaining mining hardware is on craigslist, I don't deny it.   Already sold two 5830s for $120 each, hoping for a difficulty drop or price pop to sell the last 2.  But that won't be the general case until FPGA and ASIC miners make video cards as obsolete as CPUs.
Synaptic
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September 02, 2011, 02:39:00 PM
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When the hashing power has decreased and rigs were sold. But yeah people are in denial, that's what gives scam artists alternate cryptocurrencies a free hand.

Deepbit disagrees with you.  Over the past month the hash rate there (measured, not estimated) has gone from 5 terahash to 5.5 terahash.   It was going up 50 gigahash a day as the price went below $10, and has since flatlined -- but it has not decreased in any measurable way.

*MY* remaining mining hardware is on craigslist, I don't deny it.   Already sold two 5830s for $120 each, hoping for a difficulty drop or price pop to sell the last 2.  But that won't be the general case until FPGA and ASIC miners make video cards as obsolete as CPUs.


Why do you people still believe there's going to be bitcoin ASICs? How many goddamn times does it have to be drilled into your head that the economics will NEVER work out enough to develop one until BTC are trading for well over $50/coin steadily...
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September 02, 2011, 02:44:10 PM
 #18


When the hashing power has decreased and rigs were sold. But yeah people are in denial, that's what gives scam artists alternate cryptocurrencies a free hand.

Deepbit disagrees with you.  Over the past month the hash rate there (measured, not estimated) has gone from 5 terahash to 5.5 terahash.   It was going up 50 gigahash a day as the price went below $10, and has since flatlined -- but it has not decreased in any measurable way.

*MY* remaining mining hardware is on craigslist, I don't deny it.   Already sold two 5830s for $120 each, hoping for a difficulty drop or price pop to sell the last 2.  But that won't be the general case until FPGA and ASIC miners make video cards as obsolete as CPUs.

Well deepbit seems to have a similar effect on people as the alternates have, mainly (seemingly) more predictable income. It's like the light version of the alternates. But if you look at the pool stats of solidcoin pools there are some people with serious hashing power on there. That's gonna result in quite a few bloody noses...

It obviously will not come overnight, there are people in special locations with fees of less than 0.1$/kwh who even might be able to continue but for the most people I don't see a way out. (Unless bitcoin suddenly gets a new stream of publicity pumping more money into the system)

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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September 02, 2011, 02:48:36 PM
 #19

Why do you people still believe there's going to be bitcoin ASICs? How many goddamn times does it have to be drilled into your head that the economics will NEVER work out enough to develop one until BTC are trading for well over $50/coin steadily...
I don't believe in ASICs either, just extrapolate from the upcoming gpu->fpga trend and with a lack of information think it would be the logical choice.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
Bigpiggy01
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September 02, 2011, 03:26:58 PM
 #20

Quote
I don't believe in ASICs either, just extrapolate from the upcoming gpu->fpga trend and with a lack of information think it would be the logical choice.

+1

One of the reasons FPGA and ASIC won't work out is that they have almost 0 other applications than hashing. If all hashing went belly up tomorrow I'd still be able to recoop 60-70% of value from my gpus that's something that I'd never be able to do with either FPGAs or ASICs. So unless you've got balls of steel they're an at best unsound investment.

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