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Author Topic: bitcoin bear commentary, what happens if bitcoin breaks $8?  (Read 3560 times)
nrd525
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September 05, 2011, 07:28:41 PM
 #21

I'm probably one of the few people shorting it. I stand to make a couple dollars (literally 0-$10) if it falls significantly below $2 before Dec 31.

(At least if/when the bitoptions website comes back up!).

Don't day trade.
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Minsc
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September 05, 2011, 07:29:45 PM
 #22

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

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grod
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September 05, 2011, 08:08:47 PM
 #23

I'm probably one of the few people shorting it. I stand to make a couple dollars (literally 0-$10) if it falls significantly below $2 before Dec 31.

(At least if/when the bitoptions website comes back up!).

Plenty of people would love the ability to short bitcoins but probably like me feel the odds of actually being able to assign a put on bitoptions is nil.  I felt very comfortable selling every bitcoin I had at 10.9 over the past few weeks, so it's not a far cry from there to short some, hedged by mining capacity.

Hell, if that was possible at $30 I'd have about 10-100x the mining hardware I have now, all paid for and then some. =)
grod
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September 05, 2011, 08:14:53 PM
 #24

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Yup.  Often the huge bid walls go up whenever someone needs to sell.  At least so imply the various accumulation/distribution stochastics.  Look at the Chaikin money flow over the past 30 days -- it's an unending sellfest.

That said it's been several red days in a row.  We're overdue for a dead cat bounce.
S3052
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September 05, 2011, 08:20:00 PM
 #25

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Forget about the order book for anything longer term than minutes... and even that does not tell you a lot.

Experienced traders and those using bots know excatly that there are some less experienced out there who get caught in the belief that they know the direction when just looking at the order book.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. And only using the order book would almost be free...

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im3w1l
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September 05, 2011, 08:58:40 PM
 #26

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Forget about the order book for anything longer term than minutes... and even that does not tell you a lot.

Experienced traders and those using bots know excatly that there are some less experienced out there who get caught in the belief that they know the direction when just looking at the order book.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. And only using the order book would almost be free...


Well it did work in the beginning...
fcmatt
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September 05, 2011, 10:02:03 PM
 #27

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Forget about the order book for anything longer term than minutes... and even that does not tell you a lot.

Experienced traders and those using bots know excatly that there are some less experienced out there who get caught in the belief that they know the direction when just looking at the order book.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. And only using the order book would almost be free...


Would you say that your methods are doing as equally poor the last 2-3 weeks also? I am looking over your twitter feed
and I see this:

"Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Break above 11$ opens up potential to 16-17$ as inverted head and shoulder pattern target.
19 Aug"

That was the day we had the peak after the fall to around $6 around Aug 7-8th. So it appears your call on that day was not very accurate.
The price steadily eroded until we hit Aug 25-26th where it dropped more significantly.

That is when you post this:

"BitcoinAnalyst S3052  
Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Market Analysis: Break of the Bitcoin price below 10 and 10.5 $ is bearish. blog.bitcoinwatch.com
26 Aug"

From there you have several twitter posts trying to call a bottom. Your range is so wide open that eventually you will be right.

On your other website you made a call on Aug 2nd. This was after most everyone realized the price was due for a drop again.

And today you have a post that basically, once again, hedges your call like so:

"Prices can (but don't have to) fall into the 5 $ area and possibly even lower."

I am really confused how, in the last few weeks, you seem to be doing any better then the average poster around here based
on your public writings. No where do I see a recommendation at what point you suppose people should buy and saying bitcoin
will not be in a rally mode until it hits 12 seems odd. By that time all the easy money would have been made. Are you going to
wait until the price is back above 8.50 before posting the bottom has been reached and one of your several calls was accurate?

Sorry for being the devil's advocate here but I felt the need to be an ass.
critmass
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September 05, 2011, 10:12:59 PM
 #28

Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.  I expect to see a rally towards the end of the month when everyone thinks that we've hit the bottom and it will briefly spike back up near $8, followed by another dive next month.  I expect bitcoin to be trading at or lower than $5 by year's end.
grod
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September 05, 2011, 10:26:07 PM
 #29

Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.  I expect to see a rally towards the end of the month when everyone thinks that we've hit the bottom and it will briefly spike back up near $8, followed by another dive next month.  I expect bitcoin to be trading at or lower than $5 by year's end.

The average bitcoin miner is living hand to mouth?  Really?  REALLY?

Fact is, most everyone educated enough to analyze bitcoins and enough disposable income join the community is not hurting for cash.   A few tens, hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars plus or minus a month is likely undetectable noise to most bitcoin enthusiasts.

We're far more likely driven by ego, entertainment value, etc etc than a $40 power bill.  Which for me, at least, does not come on the 1st of the month.

Oldminer
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September 05, 2011, 10:36:41 PM
 #30

I might buy back in @ $2


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322i0n
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September 05, 2011, 10:37:00 PM
 #31

the lower the price goes the faster it will fall.

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Cluster2k
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September 06, 2011, 12:34:02 AM
 #32

Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.

Bitcoin miners are quite wealthy.  Show me a poor person who can spend thousands of dollars on computer hardware to mine bitcoins.  *crickets*

If anyone is living pay cheque to pay cheque while mining bitcoins, they really need to have a serious look at their finances.

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Cluster2k
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September 06, 2011, 12:40:32 AM
 #33

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Have you ever traded shares?  All markets behave the same way with so-called manipulated fake bid walls.  Bids are placed by market participants and if the price of a share is collapsing the bids are retracted in anticipation of much lower prices very soon.  It would be silly and downright stupid to leave high bids that get gobbled in a falling market when the anticipated price is expected to be much lower.  I don't think there is a trading rule that bids, once placed, must be left and never changed.

Bitcoins have lost 30% of their value in the last month.  The market is not being manipulated.  It's a clear sign that bitcoins, right now, have very few actual uses apart from speculation.  If the speculators leave expect bitcoins to be sub $5 very soon.   If wealthy speculators take a bath on bitcoins then so be it (as long as they don't ask for a bailout like Wall Street does, year after year).  It concerns me however that unsophisticated and unexperienced traders are going to lose their shirts over bitcoins.

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dayfall
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September 06, 2011, 02:06:07 AM
 #34

Have you ever traded shares?  All markets behave the same way with so-called manipulated fake bid walls.  Bids are placed by market participants and if the price of a share is collapsing the bids are retracted in anticipation of much lower prices very soon.  It would be silly and downright stupid to leave high bids that get gobbled in a falling market when the anticipated price is expected to be much lower. 

It depends on the time frame.  If the prices fall slowly then I move my bids.  But I put in bids in case the market moves fast.  Bitcoin prices are moving down at a steady rate.  Most quick plummets recover to 50% of the previous value, at lest that is what I perceive.  Although, I am talking hourly market moves.  I can't imagine bids/asks to have any meaning after about an hour.
critmass
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September 16, 2011, 06:53:33 AM
 #35

Bitcoin miners are quite wealthy.  Show me a poor person who can spend thousands of dollars on computer hardware to mine bitcoins.  *crickets*

If anyone is living pay cheque to pay cheque while mining bitcoins, they really need to have a serious look at their finances.
The average bitcoin miner is living hand to mouth?  Really?  REALLY?

Fact is, most everyone educated enough to analyze bitcoins and enough disposable income join the community is not hurting for cash.   A few tens, hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars plus or minus a month is likely undetectable noise to most bitcoin enthusiasts.

We're far more likely driven by ego, entertainment value, etc etc than a $40 power bill.  Which for me, at least, does not come on the 1st of the month.
I never said that anyone involved was living paycheck to paycheck and you seem to be missing the main thrust of my analysis, the original dive was spurred by people getting out of BTC for real-world expenses.  This is what spurred on a panic sell-off.  When moving a $1000 USD in or out can actually, and noticeably move the market price, then when collectively all the bitcoin miners pull out their $5 million USD power bill, it messes with the market, big time.  Even if only 1% thought "hmm... I wonder if I could pay my power bill with all these silly bitcoins I've been mining"  That's still half the current market depth.  I'm using good old fashion micro-economics to examine what's going on.
Cluster2k
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September 16, 2011, 08:40:55 AM
 #36

I guess we have our answer as to 'what happens to bitcoin breaking $8'.  It's pretty much nothing.  The miners are still there and the hashing rate has surprisingly hardly decreased.  Maybe they're holding on again until they can sell closer to $10, but that creates a huge overhang of bitcoins to sell into a struggling market.  For the foreseeable future it appears that anything $10+ is long gone.

Bitcoins have now twice slumped below $5 and only trading activity due to hacked accounts lifted that briefly. 

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grod
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September 16, 2011, 02:26:27 PM
 #37

I guess we have our answer as to 'what happens to bitcoin breaking $8'.  It's pretty much nothing.  The miners are still there and the hashing rate has surprisingly hardly decreased.  Maybe they're holding on again until they can sell closer to $10, but that creates a huge overhang of bitcoins to sell into a struggling market.  For the foreseeable future it appears that anything $10+ is long gone.

Bitcoins have now twice slumped below $5 and only trading activity due to hacked accounts lifted that briefly. 

More continued slow pain for the longs, yup.  Neither $8 nor $6.58 were special at all.  Looking like $5 is no big deal either.

I project deepbit being only 10% off all time highs to 90% of the community being short term bullish.  That... may not end so well for most once we get through the denial post-bubble phase and into the panic phase.
Nagle
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September 16, 2011, 05:41:27 PM
 #38



Bitcoin/USD, last 6 months. Speculative bubble, bubble pops, long slow slide.

Bitcoin's behavior isn't that complicated. The 30 day moving average has smoothly declined $4 a month for the last 3 months. (The brown line is a 30 day trailing moving average, so shift it 15 days to the left to line it up with the data.) The "rallies" and "crashes" in the last 3 months are short-term noise. After each "crash" there's a recovery, but each top is lower than the last.

The end is in sight.
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September 16, 2011, 07:57:20 PM
 #39

The end is in sight.

If you believed that, you wouldn't be wasting your time on these forums.
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September 16, 2011, 08:23:33 PM
 #40

The end is in sight.
If you believed that, you wouldn't be wasting your time on these forums.
Getting a good laugh is never a waste of time.
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