bitcoin bear commentary, what happens if bitcoin breaks $8?

[Edward50]

I must admit, bitcoin is holding up much better than I originally predicted. I thought it would freefall further and faster down into the $4 or $5's.

However, the price is finally pushing at the $8.00 mark.

For some reason I can not see the market depth, so I do not know how much of a bid wall is at that point. Can anyone else read the market depth on mt gox?

I was wondering what you guys think if we break though the $8.00 and head into the $7.00's. Will this be the final blow to confidence that will cause bitcoin price to fall much further?

My prediction is that a break into the $7's, will probably mean a new low below $5 range will be coming within the next week.

Please let me know what you think.

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[Minsc]

Let's all switch to solidcoins.

[gw4tt]

Around $6 or so I think it might stabilize. $8.30 is still too high though. The low might be around $4.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I was wondering what you guys think if we break though the $8.00 and head into the $7.00's. Will this be the final blow to confidence that will cause bitcoin price to fall much further?

My prediction is that a break into the $7's, will probably mean a new low below $5 range will be coming within the next week.

Please let me know what you think.

It's like the boy who cried wolf! This has happened before, a couple times! I feel like the other times just toughened me up, and I'm not too worried about what happens. It may not recover like the others, but I think BitCoin is strong, and will hold through this!

T-$7.88...and counting

[nrd525]

It looks like a general slow downward trend.  The current price is around a 60 day (or longer) low.

I don't know if the bid wall at MtGox is useful as people can remove their bids before they are used (and because of the private/secret pools that don't show up).  There is almost always a decent sized bid (and ask wall) of 5000-15000 near the current price, unless you have heavy volume and that can leave a 0.5 price range with zero bids/asks.

[Litt]

It looks like a general slow downward trend.  The current price is around a 60 day (or longer) low.

I don't know if the bid wall at MtGox is useful as people can remove their bids before they are used (and because of the private/secret pools that don't show up).  There is almost always a decent sized bid (and ask wall) of 5000-15000 near the current price, unless you have heavy volume and that can leave a 0.5 price range with zero bids/asks.

Can I go swimming in that private/secret pool you are talking about?

[KMBTC11]

I don't know if the bid wall at MtGox is useful as people can remove their bids before they are used (and because of the private/secret pools that don't show up).

Neither private nor secret.

[2112]

MagicalTux had posted that they no longer use dark pools on Mt.Gox. For the very big trades they use immediate-or-cancel and iceberg orders.

[RyNinDaCleM]

What the hell is an "Iceberg order"? 

[gw4tt]

What the hell is an "Iceberg order"? 

Only part of the order is shown.

[Sekioh]

Icerberg order? I think thats like going to fastfood place and asking for no meat, no cheese, no tomato, extra lettuce

[coined]

What the hell is an "Iceberg order"? 

Only part of the order is shown.

can anyone place an iceberg order? is it an option when placing a normal order?

[im3w1l]

Broken "long" ago now. Downward trend. Fragile support at ~7.4

[grod]

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.

[N12]

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.

What’s special about 6.58 though?

[fcmatt]

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.

What’s special about 6.58 though?

there are a lot of bid orders, a wall, at 6.58.

In my opinion that wall will never get touched. There is just not a lot of selling steam left.
The amount of people willing to sell in this downward slump appears to have tapered off.
If I had to guess it was individuals off loading a ton that caused this to happen.
Not large amount of people making a decision to sell on a holiday weekend.

I will freely admit my staggered buy orders have all been filled now. Even the last buy order
at 7.30 is now filled. I am all in again for what it is worth with the amount of money I have
in an exchange.

[N12]

And what will you do if the wall disappears or is moved further down?

I wouldn’t use the depth to make any trading decisions except very short term ones, really.

[Sekioh]

or them 'freemasons' I keep reading threads on trolling with spare money?

1) Spend paycheck, buy bitcoins on other exchanges
2) Dump on market order sells
3)
4) Say I told you so?

[grod]

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.

What’s special about 6.58 though?

It was the previous rock solid support level we all had buy orders around and momentarily dipped below on Aug 6.  It's a lot of people's cost basis and 210,000 coins have been mined above it.   Feel free to pick your own price target in the 6s from your target timeframe and favorite exchange if you don't like it.

[fcmatt]

And what will you do if the wall disappears or is moved further down?

I wouldn’t use the depth to make any trading decisions except very short term ones, really.

Potential buyers have to decide when they want in. If they keep lowering their buys eventually they
completely miss the low and get left out.

I felt that expecting to hit 6.50 this holiday weekend was not likely to happen. So I put my buy orders
from 7.90 to 7.30. As the price gets lower I bought more.

And saying all buy walls are fake does not seem an accurate statement. Anyone can watch and see how many
of the recent walls actually bought up a lot of coins. Sure some moved but many stayed and acquired what they
were put there to do.

What is the worst that can happen? I lose all my money. That is a risk I am willing to take. I think this weekend
was ripe for a lower price and I expect in the next few days people will see it as a good buying opportunity.
If not? Oh well. Live and learn about the world of bitcoins.

[nrd525]

I'm probably one of the few people shorting it. I stand to make a couple dollars (literally 0-$10) if it falls significantly below $2 before Dec 31.

(At least if/when the bitoptions website comes back up!).

[Minsc]

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

[grod]

I'm probably one of the few people shorting it. I stand to make a couple dollars (literally 0-$10) if it falls significantly below $2 before Dec 31.

(At least if/when the bitoptions website comes back up!).

Plenty of people would love the ability to short bitcoins but probably like me feel the odds of actually being able to assign a put on bitoptions is nil.  I felt very comfortable selling every bitcoin I had at 10.9 over the past few weeks, so it's not a far cry from there to short some, hedged by mining capacity.

Hell, if that was possible at $30 I'd have about 10-100x the mining hardware I have now, all paid for and then some. =)

[grod]

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Yup.  Often the huge bid walls go up whenever someone needs to sell.  At least so imply the various accumulation/distribution stochastics.  Look at the Chaikin money flow over the past 30 days -- it's an unending sellfest.

That said it's been several red days in a row.  We're overdue for a dead cat bounce.

[S3052]

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Forget about the order book for anything longer term than minutes... and even that does not tell you a lot.

Experienced traders and those using bots know excatly that there are some less experienced out there who get caught in the belief that they know the direction when just looking at the order book.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. And only using the order book would almost be free...

[im3w1l]

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Forget about the order book for anything longer term than minutes... and even that does not tell you a lot.

Experienced traders and those using bots know excatly that there are some less experienced out there who get caught in the belief that they know the direction when just looking at the order book.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. And only using the order book would almost be free...

Well it did work in the beginning...

[fcmatt]

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Forget about the order book for anything longer term than minutes... and even that does not tell you a lot.

Experienced traders and those using bots know excatly that there are some less experienced out there who get caught in the belief that they know the direction when just looking at the order book.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. And only using the order book would almost be free...

Would you say that your methods are doing as equally poor the last 2-3 weeks also? I am looking over your twitter feed
and I see this:

"Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Break above 11$ opens up potential to 16-17$ as inverted head and shoulder pattern target.
19 Aug"

That was the day we had the peak after the fall to around $6 around Aug 7-8th. So it appears your call on that day was not very accurate.
The price steadily eroded until we hit Aug 25-26th where it dropped more significantly.

That is when you post this:

"BitcoinAnalyst S3052  
Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Market Analysis: Break of the Bitcoin price below 10 and 10.5 $ is bearish. blog.bitcoinwatch.com
26 Aug"

From there you have several twitter posts trying to call a bottom. Your range is so wide open that eventually you will be right.

On your other website you made a call on Aug 2nd. This was after most everyone realized the price was due for a drop again.

And today you have a post that basically, once again, hedges your call like so:

"Prices can (but don't have to) fall into the 5 $ area and possibly even lower."

I am really confused how, in the last few weeks, you seem to be doing any better then the average poster around here based
on your public writings. No where do I see a recommendation at what point you suppose people should buy and saying bitcoin
will not be in a rally mode until it hits 12 seems odd. By that time all the easy money would have been made. Are you going to
wait until the price is back above 8.50 before posting the bottom has been reached and one of your several calls was accurate?

Sorry for being the devil's advocate here but I felt the need to be an ass.

[critmass]

Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.  I expect to see a rally towards the end of the month when everyone thinks that we've hit the bottom and it will briefly spike back up near $8, followed by another dive next month.  I expect bitcoin to be trading at or lower than $5 by year's end.

[grod]

Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.  I expect to see a rally towards the end of the month when everyone thinks that we've hit the bottom and it will briefly spike back up near $8, followed by another dive next month.  I expect bitcoin to be trading at or lower than $5 by year's end.

The average bitcoin miner is living hand to mouth?  Really?  REALLY?

Fact is, most everyone educated enough to analyze bitcoins and enough disposable income join the community is not hurting for cash.   A few tens, hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars plus or minus a month is likely undetectable noise to most bitcoin enthusiasts.

We're far more likely driven by ego, entertainment value, etc etc than a $40 power bill.  Which for me, at least, does not come on the 1st of the month.

[Oldminer]

I might buy back in @ $2

[322i0n]

the lower the price goes the faster it will fall.

[Cluster2k]

Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.

Bitcoin miners are quite wealthy.  Show me a poor person who can spend thousands of dollars on computer hardware to mine bitcoins.  *crickets*

If anyone is living pay cheque to pay cheque while mining bitcoins, they really need to have a serious look at their finances.

[Cluster2k]

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Have you ever traded shares?  All markets behave the same way with so-called manipulated fake bid walls.  Bids are placed by market participants and if the price of a share is collapsing the bids are retracted in anticipation of much lower prices very soon.  It would be silly and downright stupid to leave high bids that get gobbled in a falling market when the anticipated price is expected to be much lower.  I don't think there is a trading rule that bids, once placed, must be left and never changed.

Bitcoins have lost 30% of their value in the last month.  The market is not being manipulated.  It's a clear sign that bitcoins, right now, have very few actual uses apart from speculation.  If the speculators leave expect bitcoins to be sub $5 very soon.   If wealthy speculators take a bath on bitcoins then so be it (as long as they don't ask for a bailout like Wall Street does, year after year).  It concerns me however that unsophisticated and unexperienced traders are going to lose their shirts over bitcoins.

[dayfall]

Have you ever traded shares?  All markets behave the same way with so-called manipulated fake bid walls.  Bids are placed by market participants and if the price of a share is collapsing the bids are retracted in anticipation of much lower prices very soon.  It would be silly and downright stupid to leave high bids that get gobbled in a falling market when the anticipated price is expected to be much lower. 

It depends on the time frame.  If the prices fall slowly then I move my bids.  But I put in bids in case the market moves fast.  Bitcoin prices are moving down at a steady rate.  Most quick plummets recover to 50% of the previous value, at lest that is what I perceive.  Although, I am talking hourly market moves.  I can't imagine bids/asks to have any meaning after about an hour.

[critmass]

Bitcoin miners are quite wealthy.  Show me a poor person who can spend thousands of dollars on computer hardware to mine bitcoins.  *crickets*

If anyone is living pay cheque to pay cheque while mining bitcoins, they really need to have a serious look at their finances.

The average bitcoin miner is living hand to mouth?  Really?  REALLY?

Fact is, most everyone educated enough to analyze bitcoins and enough disposable income join the community is not hurting for cash.   A few tens, hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars plus or minus a month is likely undetectable noise to most bitcoin enthusiasts.

We're far more likely driven by ego, entertainment value, etc etc than a $40 power bill.  Which for me, at least, does not come on the 1st of the month.

I never said that anyone involved was living paycheck to paycheck and you seem to be missing the main thrust of my analysis, the original dive was spurred by people getting out of BTC for real-world expenses.  This is what spurred on a panic sell-off.  When moving a $1000 USD in or out can actually, and noticeably move the market price, then when collectively all the bitcoin miners pull out their $5 million USD power bill, it messes with the market, big time.  Even if only 1% thought "hmm... I wonder if I could pay my power bill with all these silly bitcoins I've been mining"  That's still half the current market depth.  I'm using good old fashion micro-economics to examine what's going on.

[Cluster2k]

I guess we have our answer as to 'what happens to bitcoin breaking $8'.  It's pretty much nothing.  The miners are still there and the hashing rate has surprisingly hardly decreased.  Maybe they're holding on again until they can sell closer to $10, but that creates a huge overhang of bitcoins to sell into a struggling market.  For the foreseeable future it appears that anything $10+ is long gone.

Bitcoins have now twice slumped below $5 and only trading activity due to hacked accounts lifted that briefly. 

[grod]

I guess we have our answer as to 'what happens to bitcoin breaking $8'.  It's pretty much nothing.  The miners are still there and the hashing rate has surprisingly hardly decreased.  Maybe they're holding on again until they can sell closer to $10, but that creates a huge overhang of bitcoins to sell into a struggling market.  For the foreseeable future it appears that anything $10+ is long gone.

Bitcoins have now twice slumped below $5 and only trading activity due to hacked accounts lifted that briefly. 

More continued slow pain for the longs, yup.  Neither $8 nor $6.58 were special at all.  Looking like $5 is no big deal either.

I project deepbit being only 10% off all time highs to 90% of the community being short term bullish.  That... may not end so well for most once we get through the denial post-bubble phase and into the panic phase.

[Nagle]

Bitcoin/USD, last 6 months. Speculative bubble, bubble pops, long slow slide.

Bitcoin's behavior isn't that complicated. The 30 day moving average has smoothly declined $4 a month for the last 3 months. (The brown line is a 30 day trailing moving average, so shift it 15 days to the left to line it up with the data.) The "rallies" and "crashes" in the last 3 months are short-term noise. After each "crash" there's a recovery, but each top is lower than the last.

The end is in sight.

[Jixtreme]

The end is in sight.

If you believed that, you wouldn't be wasting your time on these forums.

[Grinder]

The end is in sight.

If you believed that, you wouldn't be wasting your time on these forums.

Getting a good laugh is never a waste of time.

[Jixtreme]

Getting a good laugh is never a waste of time.

Oh don't worry... If you're not planning on getting in, I'll be laughing soon enough.

[Cluster2k]

Getting a good laugh is never a waste of time.

Oh don't worry... If you're not planning on getting in, I'll be laughing soon enough.

I have no doubt that some people are keen to talk the price of bitcoins down because they're jealous of missing out on bitcoins at 50c each.  But many other people are trying to talk the price up for their own gain.  For example, Jixtreme claimed to have bought bitcoins at $9.80 in late August.  It's not pleasant to have an investment fall 50% in less than a month, but that's the risk one takes.  Any comments along the lines of 'get in now or miss out!' or similar have to be seen in light of how much money the poster has lost on the falling price so far.

[piramida]

I'm in a special position here because I have twice as much BTC now as I bought but they are worth twice as few USDs as I invested. So help me decide, am I losing or not?

Sure, there is some unrealized loss but I'm still bullish on BTC, playing quick sell/buyback with the falling market, and I could not care less if the total value of that risky investment in USD is down - it's too short term to even worry. I'm more interested in generating more BTC on volatility and what the price will be in several years, daily fluctuations are just noise.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I'm in a special position here because I have twice as much BTC now as I bought but they are worth twice as few USDs as I invested. So help me decide, am I losing or not?

Sure, there is some unrealized loss but I'm still bullish on BTC, playing quick sell/buyback with the falling market, and I could not care less if the total value of that risky investment in USD is down - it's too short term to even worry. I'm more interested in generating more BTC on volatility and what the price will be in several years, daily fluctuations are just noise.

^This^
I have twice the BTC at half the $/BTC + cash in Gox! So, I'm fine with the risk!
Trading on noise can be futile, but I've been doing pretty well!

[Minsc]

If bitcoin goes back to $8, everyone will be all "wow price is up, good time to unload coins for a profit" and selling, selling, selling till it's down to $3 again.

[RyNinDaCleM]

If bitcoin goes back to $8, everyone will be all "wow price is up, good time to unload coins for a profit" and selling, selling, selling till it's down to $3 again.

This would likely happen! Though, if it got there, hopefully people would settle down and wait, to see if it'll keep going! By then, it'll tank because of some dumbass dumping 10k to the highest bidder!

[Minsc]

If bitcoin goes back to $8, everyone will be all "wow price is up, good time to unload coins for a profit" and selling, selling, selling till it's down to $3 again.

This would likely happen! Though, if it got there, hopefully people would settle down and wait, to see if it'll keep going! By then, it'll tank because of some dumbass dumping 10k to the highest bidder!

After the crash from $30, people are waiting for it to hit $1-2 so it can finally stabilize before they'll buy coins and then they will be wary.  They do want to invest, but don't want to buy coins till it has finally hit bottom so they won't lose 90% of their money.

[piramida]

But since nobody (besides you? ) knows where the bottom is, judging by your logic everybody would start buying once the price moves somewhat up, creating an avalanche effect (rally).

I think, short term we may fall even further but I am not selling ATM, too risky. The breakout can start any week now. If the price falls to 2-ish region, I'm doubling my position, sending more money in

Here's something to think about: this is a graph of bitcoin money volatility, how much old money moved around. Obviously, the activity is not slowing down. Something is cooking. http://banana.mine.nu/daysdest.html