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Author Topic: bitcoin bear commentary, what happens if bitcoin breaks $8?  (Read 3787 times)
Edward50
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September 04, 2011, 10:59:18 PM
 #1

I must admit, bitcoin is holding up much better than I originally predicted. I thought it would freefall further and faster down into the $4 or $5's.

However, the price is finally pushing at the $8.00 mark.

For some reason I can not see the market depth, so I do not know how much of a bid wall is at that point. Can anyone else read the market depth on mt gox?

I was wondering what you guys think if we break though the $8.00 and head into the $7.00's. Will this be the final blow to confidence that will cause bitcoin price to fall much further?

My prediction is that a break into the $7's, will probably mean a new low below $5 range will be coming within the next week.

Please let me know what you think.






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Minsc
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September 04, 2011, 11:13:11 PM
 #2

Let's all switch to solidcoins.

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September 04, 2011, 11:40:09 PM
 #3

Around $6 or so I think it might stabilize. $8.30 is still too high though. The low might be around $4.
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September 05, 2011, 02:24:23 AM
 #4


I was wondering what you guys think if we break though the $8.00 and head into the $7.00's. Will this be the final blow to confidence that will cause bitcoin price to fall much further?

My prediction is that a break into the $7's, will probably mean a new low below $5 range will be coming within the next week.

Please let me know what you think.







It's like the boy who cried wolf! This has happened before, a couple times! I feel like the other times just toughened me up, and I'm not too worried about what happens. It may not recover like the others, but I think BitCoin is strong, and will hold through this!

T-$7.88...and counting

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September 05, 2011, 03:20:50 AM
 #5

It looks like a general slow downward trend.  The current price is around a 60 day (or longer) low.

I don't know if the bid wall at MtGox is useful as people can remove their bids before they are used (and because of the private/secret pools that don't show up).  There is almost always a decent sized bid (and ask wall) of 5000-15000 near the current price, unless you have heavy volume and that can leave a 0.5 price range with zero bids/asks.

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September 05, 2011, 04:42:19 AM
 #6

It looks like a general slow downward trend.  The current price is around a 60 day (or longer) low.

I don't know if the bid wall at MtGox is useful as people can remove their bids before they are used (and because of the private/secret pools that don't show up).  There is almost always a decent sized bid (and ask wall) of 5000-15000 near the current price, unless you have heavy volume and that can leave a 0.5 price range with zero bids/asks.

Can I go swimming in that private/secret pool you are talking about?
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September 05, 2011, 06:42:41 AM
 #7

I don't know if the bid wall at MtGox is useful as people can remove their bids before they are used (and because of the private/secret pools that don't show up).

Neither private nor secret.
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September 05, 2011, 04:04:43 PM
 #8

MagicalTux had posted that they no longer use dark pools on Mt.Gox. For the very big trades they use immediate-or-cancel and iceberg orders.

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September 05, 2011, 04:26:11 PM
 #9

What the hell is an "Iceberg order"?  Huh

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September 05, 2011, 05:08:39 PM
 #10

What the hell is an "Iceberg order"?  Huh

Only part of the order is shown.
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September 05, 2011, 05:22:03 PM
 #11

Icerberg order? I think thats like going to fastfood place and asking for no meat, no cheese, no tomato, extra lettuce Grin

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September 05, 2011, 05:59:19 PM
 #12

What the hell is an "Iceberg order"?  Huh

Only part of the order is shown.

can anyone place an iceberg order? is it an option when placing a normal order?
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September 05, 2011, 06:12:35 PM
 #13

Broken "long" ago now. Downward trend. Fragile support at ~7.4
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September 05, 2011, 06:43:22 PM
 #14

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.
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September 05, 2011, 06:50:16 PM
 #15

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.
What’s special about 6.58 though?
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September 05, 2011, 06:59:41 PM
 #16

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.
What’s special about 6.58 though?

there are a lot of bid orders, a wall, at 6.58.

In my opinion that wall will never get touched. There is just not a lot of selling steam left.
The amount of people willing to sell in this downward slump appears to have tapered off.
If I had to guess it was individuals off loading a ton that caused this to happen.
Not large amount of people making a decision to sell on a holiday weekend.

I will freely admit my staggered buy orders have all been filled now. Even the last buy order
at 7.30 is now filled. I am all in again for what it is worth with the amount of money I have
in an exchange.

 
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September 05, 2011, 07:01:50 PM
 #17

And what will you do if the wall disappears or is moved further down?

I wouldn’t use the depth to make any trading decisions except very short term ones, really.
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September 05, 2011, 07:01:57 PM
 #18

or them 'freemasons' I keep reading threads on trolling with spare money?

1) Spend paycheck, buy bitcoins on other exchanges
2) Dump on market order sells
3) Huh
4) Say I told you so?

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September 05, 2011, 07:02:52 PM
 #19

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.
What’s special about 6.58 though?

It was the previous rock solid support level we all had buy orders around and momentarily dipped below on Aug 6.  It's a lot of people's cost basis and 210,000 coins have been mined above it.   Feel free to pick your own price target in the 6s from your target timeframe and favorite exchange if you don't like it.
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September 05, 2011, 07:20:19 PM
 #20

And what will you do if the wall disappears or is moved further down?

I wouldn’t use the depth to make any trading decisions except very short term ones, really.

Potential buyers have to decide when they want in. If they keep lowering their buys eventually they
completely miss the low and get left out.

I felt that expecting to hit 6.50 this holiday weekend was not likely to happen. So I put my buy orders
from 7.90 to 7.30. As the price gets lower I bought more.

And saying all buy walls are fake does not seem an accurate statement. Anyone can watch and see how many
of the recent walls actually bought up a lot of coins. Sure some moved but many stayed and acquired what they
were put there to do.

What is the worst that can happen? I lose all my money. That is a risk I am willing to take. I think this weekend
was ripe for a lower price and I expect in the next few days people will see it as a good buying opportunity.
If not? Oh well. Live and learn about the world of bitcoins.

 
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