Bitcoin in 5 years

[Ada_and_Alternative]

Hello everybody!

I'm a  technology entrepreneur (= staruper) and have some ideas about bitcoin/altcoin servises I want to realise.
In fact, I'm ready to start working over it, but there are some doubts. Financial expertise is strongly needed, I guess.
But at first I want to hear your opinions and discussion.

1) How do you think what will be with cryptocurrencies in 5 years perspective?

2) Is there any chance that during 5-6 years (till 2020) new coin/technology will appear and replace bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies as we know them now? Any predictions what it will be?

Thanks in advance for your answers.

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[Akka]

1) How do you think what will be with cryptocurrencies in 5 years perspective?

Nobody can now for sure. There could be a serious flaw in Bitcoin that make it disappear totally.

Could be that it's stunning successfull.

Never forget it's still an experiment.

As for Altcoins, if there would go something wrong with Bitcoin (no matter if legal or technical) it would affect all alts as well. If Bitcoin goes down all of them will go down, too. If not, I doubt all or even the majority will still be around then and I doubt that any of them will get the adoption as Bitcoin.

If your service doesn't involve currency exchanges, I see no point in including alts, as the majority of potential customers is in Bitcoin anyway and every altcoiner is able to pay in Bitcoins as well.

2) Is there any chance that during 5-6 years (till 2020) new coin/technology will appear and replace bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies as we know them now? Any predictions what it will be?

Sure, if any would do some significant thing better. If I could know what actually would be such a massive improvement that it could replace Bitcoin, I would try to build it. So far I haven't seen any Improvements of real significance.

[pabloangello]

In 2019 Bitcoin will be in economics books.

[teukon]

None of the above.  All five poll options seem extremely unlikely to me.

[Ada_and_Alternative]

None of the above.  All five poll options seem extremely unlikely to me.

What is your forecast for BTC and others? What would you like it to be in 2019 and after?

[Ada_and_Alternative]

In 2019 Bitcoin will be in economics books.

What chapter? "Financial (r)evolution" or "The Bitcoin Bubble"?

[skivrmt]

None of the above.  All five poll options seem extremely unlikely to me.

Exactly this.  None of the options, or all the options.  Bitcoin -may- be replaced by something better, but first to the market in this setting has a HUGE advantage.  It probably will be used for a lot of everyday buying and selling, but not everything.  It won't replace fiat completely, or nearly at all, too many reasons to explain why but it simply won't.  It will still be used for speculation and gambling.  And it will still be used for illegal activities. 

I just think as the years go by it will be used more and more mainstream for everyday things and less and less for the other options.

[An amorous cow-herder]

1) How do you think what will be with cryptocurrencies in 5 years perspective?

2) Is there any chance that during 5-6 years (till 2020) new coin/technology will appear and replace bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies as we know them now? Any predictions what it will be?

Thanks in advance for your answers.

1.) The spread of possibilities is far to big to be certain, but a somewhat optimistic case would be the following. Online wallets pop in mayor industrial nation with good connections to banks, making spending and buying similiarly easy to using paypal. Current wallet application is deprecated anyway since the blockchain has gotten far too large to store on your average computer. BTC transactions account for 1-3% of online trade, especially for use cases which would traditionally require currency transfers.

2.) If BTC achieves such a high level of use quite a couple of protocoll changes are necesarry, which may or may not require a hard fork anyway. In other words bitcoin (as it implemented currently) may be replaced by bitcoin (on a protocol level without changing the blockchain).
Other possibilities for deprecation could include a yet unknown flaw in SHA256 hashing (which would affect all other SHA256 based cryptocurrencies as well) leading to scrypt-based (or a totally different hashing algorythm) currencies replacing SHA256 based ones.
Not seeing anything that would replace cryptos so far. Far bigger risk is imho that cryptocurrencies dont gain enough acceptance to achieve wide-spread usage.

[EcuaMobi]

I would say:

"Used mainly for value storage, online transactions and international transfers."

I think it will be more similar to virtual gold than virtual currency.

[TPN]

Replacing the Fiat, crypto will become the new currency

[skivrmt]

I would say:

"Used mainly for value storage, online transactions and international transfers."

I think it will be more similar to virtual gold than virtual currency.

Did you quote this or make it up yourself?  It's by far one of the best explanations I've seen describing what most likely Bitcoin is starting to become and one day hopefully it will become. 

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

[AlexM]

None of the above.  All five poll options seem extremely unlikely to me.

[EcuaMobi]

I would say:

"Used mainly for value storage, online transactions and international transfers."

I think it will be more similar to virtual gold than virtual currency.

Did you quote this or make it up yourself?  It's by far one of the best explanations I've seen describing what most likely Bitcoin is starting to become and one day hopefully it will become.  

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

I made it up myself. Quotes are to suggest it to be added to the options.

I agree BTC is much easier to trade than gold, basically because it's digital/virtual.

[Caiapfas]

BTC will be gone as all crypto that doesn't offer protects cash offers.

[lemfuture]

replaced by a faster coin.

[aminorex]

Bitcoin can be the faster coin, via an adjunct protocol.

[miaviator]

Banned in 17 countries.

[Ceballos]

Banned in 17 countries.

+1 

[SirBitsalot]

In 2019 Bitcoin will be in economics books.

I could see it! Imagine whole classes and even universities based around the learning and mastering of computing Bitcoins. You could have people specializing in mining Bitcoins, understanding Bitcoins, improving Bitcoins, and even predicting what will happen with them. It's very fascinating.

[skivrmt]

Banned in 17 countries.

+1 

This actually may be true!  But even if true, the good thing is their is still another 179 other countries that it will be legal in.  And as long as China, US, Russia, England, etc aren't part of the 17 I think we'll be ok.

[miaviator]

Banned in 17 countries.

+1 

This actually may be true!  But even if true, the good thing is their is still another 179 other countries that it will be legal in.  And as long as China, US, Russia, England, etc aren't part of the 17 I think we'll be ok.

Out of that list I could see Russia as the only one left not ban bitcoin. 

[kulinsj]

6) Used for certain types of transactions where you can afford to wait a while for confirmation on the most secure and trusted currency network (ex. mortgage payment). Other, faster coins will be used for more mundane, everyday purchases (ex. groceries).

[Ed4252]

Is there anything faster than Litecoin that's kinda popular?

[Cryddit]

I think it'll be used as a medium for online and international transactions, and that investors will use it to hedge financial positions that would go south if the economy melts down - the same way they use Gold today.

I'm pretty sure it'll remain too volatile for most people to consider using it as a store of value, and it'll start to see the effects of serious inflation as other cryptocurrencies gain market share.

By 5 years from now there'll be at least one or two other cryptocurrencies that are starting to be a serious challenge to Bitcoin because of developing new technology that Bitcoin doesn't partake of.  Some examples of the sort of thing that would give a challenger an advantage include a distributed 'tumbler' for financial privacy, GHOST protocol for resolving block conflicts, a good scaling strategy that remains distributed, peer-to-peer markets in digital assets (possibly including digital stock certificates), offline transactions, instant confirmations, etc.  Five years is probably too soon for them to have "replaced" bitcoin, but by then it's going to be a competitive market, and that competition is going to show in Bitcoin inflation coupled with deflation in the leading altcoins.  That'll be driving speculator money into the new altcoin challengers, tending to equalize the leading options as time goes on.

There's going to be more regulation.  It'll be seriously impossible for just anybody to legally launch a cryptocurrency starting sometime within the next five years; there's going to be registering, bonding, possibly requirements to back the new coin with some commodity, etc.

Also, the protocol is going to be used to transfer fiat money just as easily as Bitcoin sometime in the future -- though that'll probably be ten years or more rather than five or less.

[Siegfried]

1) How do you think what will be with cryptocurrencies in 5 years perspective?

Nobody can now for sure. There could be a serious flaw in Bitcoin that make it disappear totally.

Could be that it's stunning successfull.

Never forget it's still an experiment.

As for Altcoins, if there would go something wrong with Bitcoin (no matter if legal or technical) it would affect all alts as well. If Bitcoin goes down all of them will go down, too. If not, I doubt all or even the majority will still be around then and I doubt that any of them will get the adoption as Bitcoin.

If your service doesn't involve currency exchanges, I see no point in including alts, as the majority of potential customers is in Bitcoin anyway and every altcoiner is able to pay in Bitcoins as well.

2) Is there any chance that during 5-6 years (till 2020) new coin/technology will appear and replace bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies as we know them now? Any predictions what it will be?

Sure, if any would do some significant thing better. If I could know what actually would be such a massive improvement that it could replace Bitcoin, I would try to build it. So far I haven't seen any Improvements of real significance.

There have been many fiat currencies that have collapsed, yet other fiat currencies survive. Why wouldn't other cryptocurrencies survive bitcoin's fall?

[SirBitsalot]

Is there anything faster than Litecoin that's kinda popular?

Not that I know of... something will pop up within the next few years though I imagine

[DCP]

hey guys, there's much more to the Bitcoin architecture then just storing/sending/receiving funds... that's just the visible part of the iceberg.  This video is really informative if you want to go deeper: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cs6F91dFYCs&feature=share&list=UUC3L8QaxqEGUiBC252GHy3w&index=1

[ak84]

In 2019 Bitcoin will be in economics books.

I could see it! Imagine whole classes and even universities based around the learning and mastering of computing Bitcoins. You could have people specializing in mining Bitcoins, understanding Bitcoins, improving Bitcoins, and even predicting what will happen with them. It's very fascinating.

that is pretty much what bitcointalk is minus the trolling and scammers

[Xenophis]

I believe after riding the momentum it has had last year, the integration process has already begun. It's just a matter of time (years, maybe a decade) until it becomes fully within the realm of mainstream use, but it's absolutely on its way. And it has capital behind it as well to drive it in the proper direction.

[deisik]

I would say:

"Used mainly for value storage, online transactions and international transfers."

I think it will be more similar to virtual gold than virtual currency.

Did you quote this or make it up yourself?  It's by far one of the best explanations I've seen describing what most likely Bitcoin is starting to become and one day hopefully it will become. 

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

Yes, as long as you have Internet at hand. The main weak spot of bitcoin is hidden where its strengths come from. You can trade in gold using some primitive scales, without Internet, electricity or whatever...

It is very vulnerable without a state behind it

[Ada_and_Alternative]

Oh, I see that the community is rather optimistic about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies future.
But... we mostly think from our own position of advanced users. We are unfortunately not the whole world

I, myself, believe that bitcoin will be widely spread and become one of the most popular payment methods. Or will be replaced by something new. But very similar.

However... what do the other people think? I mean, do your parents or even children know about bitcoin? How many of them? Is it convinient for them to use BTC? Will it be ever?
Do they want to use cryptocoins? And - the most important - do they need it?  

[eboard10]

IMO Bitcoin will still be there in 5 years time, however, it won't be used for everyday purpose due to it's high volatility and because it cannot be controlled by governments. I fear that increased regulation by governments and speculation for such a small market will hinder the spread of Bitcoin to such levels.

[Akka]

There have been many fiat currencies that have collapsed, yet other fiat currencies survive. Why wouldn't other cryptocurrencies survive bitcoin's fall?

If something happens, maybe due to Gouverments outlawing Bitcoin, that would have the same Effect on Alts as well.

If Bitcoin breaks due to a technical issue, all alts are done for, too. Because they all base on Bitcoins code. Simple as that.

[aminorex]

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

Yes, as long as you have Internet at hand. The main weak spot of bitcoin is hidden where its strengths come from. You can trade in gold using some primitive scales, without Internet, electricity or whatever...

It is very vulnerable without a state behind it

I'm not buying that.   Transporting gold from place to place is extremely vulnerable to brigandage.  Storing gold anywhere makes it vulnerable to robbery.  Bitcoin, not so much; it's up to you how secure or insecure your bitcoin are; there are no physical limits.  I think using gold depends on the state much more than does using bitcoin.

[deisik]

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

Yes, as long as you have Internet at hand. The main weak spot of bitcoin is hidden where its strengths come from. You can trade in gold using some primitive scales, without Internet, electricity or whatever...

It is very vulnerable without a state behind it

I'm not buying that.   Transporting gold from place to place is extremely vulnerable to brigandage.  Storing gold anywhere makes it vulnerable to robbery.  Bitcoin, not so much; it's up to you how secure or insecure your bitcoin are; there are no physical limits.  I think using gold depends on the state much more than does using bitcoin.

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect either, but it is material and has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia (compare it with just five years of bitcoin, lol) despite all its drawbacks...

[Holdaaja]

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

Yes, as long as you have Internet at hand. The main weak spot of bitcoin is hidden where its strengths come from. You can trade in gold using some primitive scales, without Internet, electricity or whatever...

It is very vulnerable without a state behind it

I'm not buying that.   Transporting gold from place to place is extremely vulnerable to brigandage.  Storing gold anywhere makes it vulnerable to robbery.  Bitcoin, not so much; it's up to you how secure or insecure your bitcoin are; there are no physical limits.  I think using gold depends on the state much more than does using bitcoin.

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

[deisik]

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

Yes, as long as you have Internet at hand. The main weak spot of bitcoin is hidden where its strengths come from. You can trade in gold using some primitive scales, without Internet, electricity or whatever...

It is very vulnerable without a state behind it

I'm not buying that.   Transporting gold from place to place is extremely vulnerable to brigandage.  Storing gold anywhere makes it vulnerable to robbery.  Bitcoin, not so much; it's up to you how secure or insecure your bitcoin are; there are no physical limits.  I think using gold depends on the state much more than does using bitcoin.

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off your wi-fi router. As easy as that...

[Holdaaja]

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

Yes, as long as you have Internet at hand. The main weak spot of bitcoin is hidden where its strengths come from. You can trade in gold using some primitive scales, without Internet, electricity or whatever...

It is very vulnerable without a state behind it

I'm not buying that.   Transporting gold from place to place is extremely vulnerable to brigandage.  Storing gold anywhere makes it vulnerable to robbery.  Bitcoin, not so much; it's up to you how secure or insecure your bitcoin are; there are no physical limits.  I think using gold depends on the state much more than does using bitcoin.

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off you wi-fi router...

Well that wouldn't make my coins worthless.

[deisik]

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off you wi-fi router...

Well that wouldn't make my coins worthless.

They are worthless as long as there is no Internet for you. As simple as that...

[Holdaaja]

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off you wi-fi router...

Well that wouldn't make my coins worthless.

They are worthless as long as there is no Internet for you. As simple as that...

You think paper wallets are worthless? I don't.

[deisik]

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off you wi-fi router...

Well that wouldn't make my coins worthless.

They are worthless as long as there is no Internet for you. As simple as that...

You think paper wallets are worthless? I don't.

Can you make transactions with them? I always thought that paper wallets were created with the purpose of preventing losing your coins due to a hardware failure of your computer (cold storage)

[Holdaaja]

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off you wi-fi router...

Well that wouldn't make my coins worthless.

They are worthless as long as there is no Internet for you. As simple as that...

You think paper wallets are worthless? I don't.

Can you make transactions with them?

¨
With casascius coins, yes. And if someone accept just private code, sure.

[deisik]

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off you wi-fi router...

Well that wouldn't make my coins worthless.

They are worthless as long as there is no Internet for you. As simple as that...

You think paper wallets are worthless? I don't.

Can you make transactions with them?

¨
With casascius coins, yes. And if someone accept just private code, sure.

So it is not much different if you just replace your casascius coins with any other coins (gold, for example, lol). And I'm not very familiar with bitcoin transaction technology, so could someone more knowledgeable either confirm or refute that? Aren't they liable to double-spend?

How could we know that money is still there (without access to blockchain)?

[Holdaaja]

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off you wi-fi router...

Well that wouldn't make my coins worthless.

They are worthless as long as there is no Internet for you. As simple as that...

You think paper wallets are worthless? I don't.

Can you make transactions with them?

¨
With casascius coins, yes. And if someone accept just private code, sure.

So it is not much different if you just replace your casascius coins with any other coins (gold, for example, lol). And I'm not very familiar with bitcoin transaction technology, so could someone more knowledgeable either confirm or refute that?

Or I just could replug my internet cable

[deisik]

So it is not much different if you just replace your casascius coins with any other coins (gold, for example, lol). And I'm not very familiar with bitcoin transaction technology, so could someone more knowledgeable either confirm or refute that?

Or I just could replug my internet cable

It may not be enough, lol

[Ada_and_Alternative]

Seems like bitcoin is too dependent on Internet connection and electricity.
I hope everything 'll be alright with them in 5 years 

[pietje]

Seems like bitcoin is too dependent on Internet connection and electricity.
I hope everything 'll be alright with them in 5 years 

What isnt dependent on internet and electricity these days?

[deisik]

Seems like bitcoin is too dependent on Internet connection and electricity.
I hope everything 'll be alright with them in 5 years 

What isnt dependent on internet and electricity these days?

Eternal virtues and values indeed (one of them has been named already)...

[frank754]

I see Bitcoin as becoming more mainstream and stable, also as a hedge against economic conditions. Fiat money keeps being printed as well, and the value of dollars is gradually declining vs the goods that it can purchase, as well as how it can fluctuate in the world currency market. The oil market is based on US dollars, but that can change too. I see Bitcoin as a good long term investment that will not lose relative value in purchasing power. Right now it's more in the discovery/adoption phase and there is still some uncertainty, but once past this hurdle should become more stable. I see the price going up steadily soon as more people invest in it and business adopt it, then later the valuation should still keep going up, but less quickly. I do think it will always beat having fiat money in a bank, and many will soon realize that.

[johnyj]

- Used by everybody as a saving account

[notme]

Seems like bitcoin banking is too dependent on Internet connection and electricity.
I hope everything 'll be alright with them in 5 years  

Hey look, it still applies to the alternatives.

[Ada_and_Alternative]

Seems like bitcoin banking everything is too dependent on Internet connection and electricity.
I hope everything 'll be alright with them in 5 years  

Hey look, it still applies to the alternatives.

Any ideas about alternatives?

[timmmers]

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

Yes, as long as you have Internet at hand. The main weak spot of bitcoin is hidden where its strengths come from. You can trade in gold using some primitive scales, without Internet, electricity or whatever...

It is very vulnerable without a state behind it

I'm not buying that.   Transporting gold from place to place is extremely vulnerable to brigandage.  Storing gold anywhere makes it vulnerable to robbery.  Bitcoin, not so much; it's up to you how secure or insecure your bitcoin are; there are no physical limits.  I think using gold depends on the state much more than does using bitcoin.

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off your wi-fi router. As easy as that...

Nah. People in China and India and Africa are online via mobile devices and Africa has better coverage than parts of 1st world companies in some areas...if you can't access the web without your Wi-fi router on an ipad or mobile these days you're on the Moon. People on the Moon probably won't use bitcoins IMO though.

[proton]

Money is a medium of exchange.  Without other parties to exchange, all money is worthless. 

[miaviator]

The main difference is between BTC and gold though is this is a lot easier to trade and "use" for everyday purchases, transfers etc.

Yes, as long as you have Internet at hand. The main weak spot of bitcoin is hidden where its strengths come from. You can trade in gold using some primitive scales, without Internet, electricity or whatever...

It is very vulnerable without a state behind it

I'm not buying that.   Transporting gold from place to place is extremely vulnerable to brigandage.  Storing gold anywhere makes it vulnerable to robbery.  Bitcoin, not so much; it's up to you how secure or insecure your bitcoin are; there are no physical limits.  I think using gold depends on the state much more than does using bitcoin.

Without Internet all your bitcoins instantaneously become just digital garbage. Gold is not perfect, but it has been around as a means of exchange and store of value for almost five millennia...

How would internet disappear?

Just unplug your cable or turn off your wi-fi router. As easy as that...

Nah. People in China and India and Africa are online via mobile devices and Africa has better coverage than parts of 1st world companies in some areas...if you can't access the web without your Wi-fi router on an ipad or mobile these days you're on the Moon. People on the Moon probably won't use bitcoins IMO though.

Why not?

People on the moon will likely not use cash or gold.  I think BTC would be a good idea for Moon and Underwater projects.

[exstasie]

Since I am an owner of BTC I obviously want it to stick around...though not sure if that'll be the case. I believe that some form of crypto currency will survive...just not sure it'll be btc

[Chris180Z]

Who knows, but probably used by many people around the world in shops, and there will be competition.