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Author Topic: WTH? why a sudden drop by 10 cents?  (Read 12916 times)
nster
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March 05, 2011, 11:29:04 PM
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MT.Gox's selling price is now at 81 cents... it was at 90 cents a few MINUTES ago, at 92~94 cents 2 days ago...

is this a trend that will continue?

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March 05, 2011, 11:56:58 PM
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Someone sold a lot by itself I don't find concerning, but I don't like the bid to ask ratio only like 5 bids and 25 asks.

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March 06, 2011, 12:04:52 AM
 #3

Stop pestering us with every damn dramatic drop and rise and give a reason why it's dropping/rising with no proof.

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March 06, 2011, 12:07:09 AM
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The sell side is starting to move the price down, it pretty much had to happen as fundamentally there are new BTC entering the economy all the time and some of that new money needs to be exchanged to cover the costs of production...the non trader types on the forum have to realise that the exchange rate can be very volatile as there is very little real need and thus demand for BTC.
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March 06, 2011, 12:13:14 AM
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The sell side is starting to move the price down, it pretty much had to happen as fundamentally there are new BTC entering the economy all the time and some of that new money needs to be exchanged to cover the costs of production...the non trader types on the forum have to realise that the exchange rate can be very volatile as there is very little real need and thus demand for BTC.

until Bitcoin stabilises at least a bit, the demand won't grow, nobody wants to deal with a currency that fluctuates 10x more than stocks

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March 06, 2011, 12:50:04 AM
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The sell side is starting to move the price down, it pretty much had to happen as fundamentally there are new BTC entering the economy all the time and some of that new money needs to be exchanged to cover the costs of production...the non trader types on the forum have to realise that the exchange rate can be very volatile as there is very little real need and thus demand for BTC.

until Bitcoin stabilises at least a bit, the demand won't grow, nobody wants to deal with a currency that fluctuates 10x more than stocks

Actually 10x fluctuations can look very attractive to traders as there is clearly opportunity for easy money, but from a mining point of view with its fixed costs etc its frustrating, miners in the real world are able to forward sell production and or enter currency hedging arrangements to smooth out the price volatility of the commodity they mine...BTC miners at the moment have no such luxury...and there's another opportunity for someone or a group of people hoarding BTC to set up a futures market so the miners can hedge a little production. 
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March 06, 2011, 01:09:59 AM
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I saw the drop and bought more. Wish I would have waited a little longer though, and would have saved a bit more.  Cheesy
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March 06, 2011, 02:13:29 AM
 #8

MT.Gox's selling price is now at 81 cents... it was at 90 cents a few MINUTES ago, at 92~94 cents 2 days ago...
is this a trend that will continue?

You mean fairly large fluctuations in BTC/$ prices?  Yes, yes it will.  If you're looking for a stable, boring investment do not buy bitcoins.

I'm still surprised we haven't seen a real price bubble yet (where my definition of bubble is "doubles in price and then falls all the way back down").  Maybe we're in the middle of one still on its way up...


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March 06, 2011, 04:51:19 AM
 #9

The truth is we need more speculators. They would add cnsiderable liquidity, and make the price much more stable.

As soon as the price starts to rise to much too quickly they would sell, bringing it down. If the price falls too quickly by too much they buy, bringing it up.

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March 06, 2011, 05:48:58 AM
 #10

And the price is back up, someone has spotted the bargain and bought, bringing up the price. still a little lower than it's been trading at but thats nothing to worry about. It should creep up over the next few trades.

So this is the result of a single person executing a fairly large( by our standards) trade. This causeda few automated ( or panic) sells.It's a small market and is easily moved. Sadly I wasn't in a position to take advantage of this drop. Im much too risk averse to take advantage of such a big price move.

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March 06, 2011, 05:53:30 AM
 #11

is this a trend that will continue?


Personally, I consider Bitcoin's short term fluctuations on the exchanges to be of little significance.  I know that all bitcoins issued as-of today total 5.61 million BTCs.  I know that in January 2012, there will be about 8 million BTCs and that in January 2013 there will be about 10.5 mllion BTCs.  

If bitcoin continues to emerge as the leading digital currency, will the entire currency issued need to be more than $10 million USD worth by January 2013 to support the demand? I can't see how it cannot be.  And if that were to happen, each BTC would then be worth more than it is today.

Only if you hold on to your bitcoins now will you still have them to sell at levels significantly higher than where Bitcoin trades today.

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March 06, 2011, 10:26:58 AM
 #12

The truth is we need more speculators. They would add cnsiderable liquidity, and make the price much more stable.

As soon as the price starts to rise to much too quickly they would sell, bringing it down. If the price falls too quickly by too much they buy, bringing it up.

We do need more speculators and liquidity....the problem then maybe that modern speculators tend to be trend following, day traders...they profit by buying into trends and then sell out as soon as that trend reverses or stalls, or sell at a certain percentage loss (usually 3 or 4%) if there entry was wrong...often this actually increases volatility as 1000s of day traders jump in and out of trends at roughly the same time.

I'm very much in 2 minds as to whether liquidity = stability.
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March 06, 2011, 12:54:50 PM
 #13

+1
This is absolutely true.


The Bitcoin market needs more traders, investors or speculators. Otherwise prices will fall.

Just think about that more than 10,000 bitcoins are generated daily. If miners cash out all or a proportion of it, the Bitcoin economy needs at least the same amount of new fund inflows and bitcoin buying to just keep prices flat (let alone rising).

In the recent weeks, no significant new funds came in, and hence we are in a downtrend that may accelerate unless 0.95$, 1.0$ and 1.1$ will be broken to the upside.

people holding bitcoins should better advertise it versus debating endlessly in this forum about minor things (and adding thousands of posts about issues that are beyond there circle of influence)

This is not meant badly, just to put the "moose on the table".

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March 06, 2011, 01:26:23 PM
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Actually the reason we're on a downward trend with the USD bitcon price is the balance of trade. For all intents and purposes you can think of bitcoin as the currency of a very tiny country (the official currency of cypherspace?), and as such represents everyting that this cypherspace economy produces and exports.

A falling currency means that we are importing more than we are exporting. Many people including myself have been spending their bitcoins. The recipients have been exchanging these to pay for the products or services they provide.

We need to change this balance of trade, we need to export more than we import( at least for a time). Otherwise the trend will be continually downward.

Long story short we need more bitcoin based businesses. But for the time being we could see bitcoin drop back quite a bit from it's current low.

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March 06, 2011, 01:29:13 PM
 #15

yes, it is 2-fold need to grow:

1) more people acquiring bitcoins (traders, investors)
2) more bitcoin based businesses

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no to the gold cult
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March 06, 2011, 01:30:33 PM
 #16

+1
This is absolutely true.


The Bitcoin market needs more traders, investors or speculators. Otherwise prices will fall.

Just think about that more than 10,000 bitcoins are generated daily. If miners cash out all or a proportion of it, the Bitcoin economy needs at least the same amount of new fund inflows and bitcoin buying to just keep prices flat (let alone rising).

In the recent weeks, no significant new funds came in, and hence we are in a downtrend that may accelerate unless 0.95$, 1.0$ and 1.1$ will be broken to the upside.

people holding bitcoins should better advertise it versus debating endlessly in this forum about minor things (and adding thousands of posts about issues that are beyond there circle of influence)

This is not meant badly, just to put the "moose on the table".

Well, I've been doing my bit.Smiley

Now I'm considering a stenciling campaign, Banksy style.

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March 06, 2011, 02:09:10 PM
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Now I'm considering a stenciling campaign, Banksy style.

Here's one underhanded way it could be done:

1. Get a stencil made which says "We Now Accept Bitcoins" and apply it to every advertising billboard you can find.

2. Customers ask these businesses about how to pay with Bitcoins.

3. Businesses recognize the demand and support Bitcoins.

4. Success!
no to the gold cult
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March 06, 2011, 02:11:51 PM
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Now I'm considering a stenciling campaign, Banksy style.

Here's one underhanded way it could be done:

1. Get a stencil made which says "We Now Accept Bitcoins" and apply it to every advertising billboard you can find.

2. Customers ask these businesses about how to pay with Bitcoins.

3. Businesses recognize the demand and support Bitcoins.

4. Success!

Heheh, I like it.Smiley

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For your daily bitcoin updates, all you need are these...
http://thebitcoinsun.com/ and http://bitcoinweekly.com
nster
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March 06, 2011, 02:15:02 PM
 #19

How exactly have people convinced businesses to accept bitcoins before?

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March 06, 2011, 02:22:42 PM
 #20

How exactly have people convinced businesses to accept bitcoins before?

I wasan't talkng about existing business accepting bitcoin, but a business created in the bitcoin economy, and operating primarily in bitcoins.

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