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Author Topic: WTH? why a sudden drop by 10 cents?  (Read 12926 times)
da2ce7
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March 07, 2011, 08:05:49 AM
 #41

nothing to worry about, keep moving... you just forget that the price jumped from 25c to 100c in 3 months!  That is a market cap growth rate of over %2100 p.a. What happens is that real Bitcoin economy was slightly slower than it, and the price is lagging until the economy reaches that point again.

The long-term prospect is that 1BTC is going to easily clear 10$ by mid September and $20 by November, and $30 by the end of the year!

 Grin Grin

lets see what happens, however I fully expect that soon new funds will come online.  The number of Bitcoin projects in development atm in this community is staggering.

See there are stages, for example when he price was 25c the miners were sitting and waiting, now that the price has moved to around $1 the number of miners has dramatically increased.

The stage before was when MTGox and other trading sites came online.

We are in another phase now, this phase is when web-services based upon Bitcoin are being developed, when these come online, we will see a massive increase of trading value of Bitcoin.

Then, again, the miners will fight over the leftovers.

It will be a wild ride, it is the wild west after all.

One off NP-Hard.
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March 07, 2011, 08:13:02 PM
 #42

Looks like it rising now. I'm curious how long it will take to reach over $2.
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March 07, 2011, 08:33:31 PM
 #43

I have a feeling that the change of ownership of Mt. Gox might have caused this slight dip in the prices.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
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March 07, 2011, 08:37:18 PM
 #44

I have a feeling that the change of ownership of Mt. Gox might have caused this slight dip in the prices.

I think X cause Y change in bitcoin price.

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March 07, 2011, 08:48:57 PM
 #45

I have a feeling that the change of ownership of Mt. Gox might have caused this slight dip in the prices.

I think X cause Y change in bitcoin price.

Yeah I hate it when today's "news" outlets release articles about various prices rising or falling and then they pin on something banal like I don't know unrests in Libya being responsible for rising price of silver...  Roll Eyes

It's always just supply vs demand with a tiny bit of the speculative element.

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March 08, 2011, 12:21:07 AM
 #46

S3052 said there will be a breakout soon and we're in a rally mode.  Grin

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March 08, 2011, 01:38:51 AM
 #47

I have a feeling that the change of ownership of Mt. Gox might have caused this slight dip in the prices.

I think X cause Y change in bitcoin price.

Yeah I hate it when today's "news" outlets release articles about various prices rising or falling and then they pin on something banal like I don't know unrests in Libya being responsible for rising price of silver...  Roll Eyes

It's always just supply vs demand with a tiny bit of the speculative element.
While CNBC sometimes has what I consider to be silly reasons for why the market moved today, news can and does move markets.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
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March 08, 2011, 01:49:21 AM
 #48

Yeah I hate it when today's "news" outlets release articles about various prices rising or falling and then they pin on something banal like I don't know unrests in Libya being responsible for rising price of silver...  Roll Eyes

Haha. Well said. Of course, these are the same people who say the Hunt brothers were the sole reason the price of silver rose back in the 70s.
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March 08, 2011, 07:44:17 AM
 #49

S3052 said there will be a breakout soon and we're in a rally mode.  Grin

It's no rocket science this time, just look at the chart:



The latest date that the outbreak can happen at is T_max.

But i would rather say that it will happen much much sooner, like in max 1/3 of the length from last recorded value to T_max (which makes it a month, maximum 2).
It's gaining speed after all, not rising with constant speed.

So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.

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March 08, 2011, 08:05:08 PM
 #50


So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.

Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.

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March 08, 2011, 08:25:30 PM
 #51


So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.

Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.

As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are (EDIT: mined), that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?

It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.

And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.


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March 08, 2011, 08:29:29 PM
 #52


So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.

Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.

As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are printed, that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?

It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.

And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.



Alot of people are hoarding their bitcoins, waiting for a huge increase (ie: to 2 $) to sell everything and forget about mining if it isn't profitable anymore or will continue mining if it is. but that big sell off after the rally might mean a major decline

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March 08, 2011, 08:39:06 PM
 #53


So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.

Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.

As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are printed, that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?

It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.

And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.



Alot of people are hoarding their bitcoins, waiting for a huge increase (ie: to 2 $) to sell everything and forget about mining if it isn't profitable anymore or will continue mining if it is. but that big sell off after the rally might mean a major decline

Great, I'll wait till then before I buy more.Smiley

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nster
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March 08, 2011, 10:21:38 PM
 #54


So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.

Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.

As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are printed, that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?

It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.

And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.



Alot of people are hoarding their bitcoins, waiting for a huge increase (ie: to 2 $) to sell everything and forget about mining if it isn't profitable anymore or will continue mining if it is. but that big sell off after the rally might mean a major decline

Great, I'll wait till then before I buy more.Smiley

I meant later on, when the difficulty will be very high and that the BTC will be around 2$ and is still profitable, people might mass sell and it'll fall back to 0.8$ or 1$ and Bitmining won't be profitable anymore and then everyone will mass sell and quit... and bitcoin will die

This is a worst case scenario btw, not exactly what I think will happen :p

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ShadowOfHarbringer
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March 08, 2011, 11:18:21 PM
 #55


So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.

Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.

As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are printed, that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?

It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.

And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.



Alot of people are hoarding their bitcoins, waiting for a huge increase (ie: to 2 $) to sell everything and forget about mining if it isn't profitable anymore or will continue mining if it is. but that big sell off after the rally might mean a major decline

Great, I'll wait till then before I buy more.Smiley

I meant later on, when the difficulty will be very high and that the BTC will be around 2$ and is still profitable, people might mass sell and it'll fall back to 0.8$ or 1$ and Bitmining won't be profitable anymore and then everyone will mass sell and quit... and bitcoin will die

This is a worst case scenario btw, not exactly what I think will happen :p

What you are saying is a relative and temporary situation.
Bitcoin has a market, which means that it will self-balance itself regularly. The more people use it, the more balanced it will be. The more people use it, the more value bitcoins have.

It's a currency which is deflationary by design. It cannot decrease value in the long term, unless size of its userbase and/or its economy starts to fall.
So unless some serious weakness is discovered (like technical weakness), Bitcoin is doomed to rise forever.

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March 09, 2011, 07:59:26 AM
 #56

It cannot decrease value in the long term, unless size of its userbase and/or its economy starts to fall.
So unless some serious weakness is discovered (like technical weakness), Bitcoin is doomed to rise forever.

Do you seriously think the only way Bitcoin  usage can decrease is if there's a technical weakness found?

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ShadowOfHarbringer
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March 09, 2011, 11:03:46 AM
 #57

It cannot decrease value in the long term, unless size of its userbase and/or its economy starts to fall.
So unless some serious weakness is discovered (like technical weakness), Bitcoin is doomed to rise forever.

Do you seriously think the only way Bitcoin usage can decrease is if there's a technical weakness found?

Depends on the weakness.

- If this is a critical design-related weakness, it may even destroy the currency (but i don't think something like this exists, BTC has been on for 2 years and everything looks perfect)
- If this is a serious weakness, it may reverse the expansion for some time.
- Smaller weaknesses will only slow down the expansion.

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March 09, 2011, 07:31:48 PM
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Depends on the weakness.

- If this is a critical design-related weakness, it may even destroy the currency (but i don't think something like this exists, BTC has been on for 2 years and everything looks perfect)
- If this is a serious weakness, it may reverse the expansion for some time.
- Smaller weaknesses will only slow down the expansion.

That's not what I asked. My point is, it's perfectly possible for Bitcoin never to gain sufficient critical mass to remain viable and for the economy to slowly grind to a halt, without any technical flaws at all.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
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March 09, 2011, 08:16:05 PM
 #59

That's not what I asked. My point is, it's perfectly possible for Bitcoin never to gain sufficient critical mass to remain viable and for the economy to slowly grind to a halt, without any technical flaws at all.

If bitcoin is such a pivotal technology, than some kind of crypto-economy will arise.

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March 10, 2011, 06:17:43 AM
 #60

That's not what I asked. My point is, it's perfectly possible for Bitcoin never to gain sufficient critical mass to remain viable and for the economy to slowly grind to a halt, without any technical flaws at all.

As long as merchants keep accepting it, it should be fine. One thing is that Europe and/or Asia need to catch up on the market. The market is highly US centric, people from Europe/Asia are limited with trade in that respect (due to distance/trust and US only shipments).
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