Market Impact from a MTGox collapse

[BreathOfZen]

Hi all,
Given the increasingly worrying news coming out of MTGox, it is time to start worrying about what will happen to the exchange rate, market confidence, and the Bitcoin image generally if Gox does implode, and take everyone's deposits with them.

My first worry is that to the outside world, Gox is the only exchange that matters.  Every publication uses the Gox price when they are talking about Bitcoin, and it's the only exchange that I've really seen talked about in the media.  If nothing else, its collapse will be media worthy.

[T.Stuart]

Hi all,
Given the increasingly worrying news coming out of MTGox, it is time to start worrying about what will happen to the exchange rate, market confidence, and the Bitcoin image generally if Gox does implode, and take everyone's deposits with them.

My first worry is that to the outside world, Gox is the only exchange that matters.  Every publication uses the Gox price when they are talking about Bitcoin, and it's the only exchange that I've really seen talked about in the media.  If nothing else, its collapse will be media worthy.

Go away.

EDIT: Actually, perhaps I am being naive but it is possible that you are simply a noob and not a very badly disguised troll. In which case don't worry about it. Gox has been to hell and back (perhaps not completely back) and while I would hesitate to compare Gox to Bitcoin itself, there is a certain resemblance as far as resilience goes. Anyway, it may be shit, but I don't think Gox is going anywhere.

[ElectricMucus]

If mtgox closes shop and runs Bitcoins are worthless. They may not have the volume anymore but they do have the vast majority of money deposited and despite what market cheerleaders may claim the money available for otc deals isn't anything close to that.

Go away.

I for once will be here long after you abolish this newest sockpuppet account.

[T.Stuart]

Go away.

I for once will be here long after you abolish this newest sockpuppet account.

Yes, you do have a certain air of immortality, I'll give you that.  

[BreathOfZen]

Maybe I am naive on the subject, but I thought that it was common knowledge that withdrawing from Gox is a terrible nightmare that routinely takes several months, if not longer.  Traditionally, this is the sort of behavior that occurs in failing enterprises that cannibalize their deposits to pay for ongoing expenses until there is no money left. 

There is at least one decent exchange (cough Bitstamp cough) and it's not like a Gox collapse means the end of Bitcoin, but still, when I look at the upcoming disasters that are at least somewhat foreseeable, Gox seems like the biggest one out there.

[Holliday]

If mtgox closes shop and runs Bitcoins are worthless.

LOL. EM you are one crazy dude.

[T.Stuart]

Maybe I am naive on the subject, but I thought that it was common knowledge that withdrawing from Gox is a terrible nightmare that routinely takes several months, if not longer.  Traditionally, this is the sort of behavior that occurs in failing enterprises that cannibalize their deposits to pay for ongoing expenses until there is no money left. 

There is at least one decent exchange (cough Bitstamp cough) and it's not like a Gox collapse means the end of Bitcoin, but still, when I look at the upcoming disasters that are at least somewhat foreseeable, Gox seems like the biggest one out there.

I don't think it is actually considered to be up there with the top-of-the-list impending doom scenarios (which are FYI 1. China, 2. China, 3. China, etc.). But exchanges do come and go: recent occurences (eg Hong Kong http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/12/04/bitcoin_scammers_gbl_caught_china/) have not sparked crashes. But it is true that Gox is a well-known exchange. Still, in terms of the effect on market sentiment at the least, I wouldn't give the Gox-down scenario much importance at the moment.

[virtualfaqs]

If Mtgox needs fiat, they can exchange BTC for it.

Also if they were in dire need of money, they wouldn't be giving 25% off fees until Jan 20.

[BreathOfZen]

Actually, it is the hallmark of distressed companies to offer great terms, fee reductions, etc in an effort to draw in new capital, and keep current customers from leaving as best they can.  Sad to say, the last time I saw this sort of thing was in the banking crisis of 2008.

[kireinaha]

Let's hope it happens. I mean, I wouldn't want to see anyone lose coins that are in accounts there, but Gox blows and the community would be better off if they just go out of the picture, since it seems like they're never going to improve their service. Step aside and let someone else take over.

In the short term, prices would fall a lot on the other exchanges, but they'd recover in time.

[El Dude]

Mtgox will save itself by trading Litecoin.

[smoothie]

News of MTGOX is going to come sooner or later. The issues that arose since last May (2013) have not been really resolved and addressed.

Most of the issues have been given silence by MTGOX and thus in my view are an attempt to cover up what the real situation at GOX is.

I'm expecting bad news for MTGOX in 2014. Whether or not this is bad for bitcoin is another story. We'll let the markets decide.

[MAbtc]

The fact is that Gox is the best-known exchange and in some senses, is one of the faces of bitcoin. It would not be pretty.

[ArticMine]

MTGox 30 day BTC volume for USD trades: 512,410.89

VS

BTC-E 30 day BTC volume for USD trades: 706,337.58
Bitsamp 30 day BTC volume for USD trades: 657,131.52

Source: http://bitcoincharts.com/

Also BTC-E and Bitstamp are very close in price. I would say that MTGox is becoming less and less relevant by the day.

[windjc]

Hi all,
Given the increasingly worrying news coming out of MTGox, it is time to start worrying about what will happen to the exchange rate, market confidence, and the Bitcoin image generally if Gox does implode, and take everyone's deposits with them.

My first worry is that to the outside world, Gox is the only exchange that matters.  Every publication uses the Gox price when they are talking about Bitcoin, and it's the only exchange that I've really seen talked about in the media.  If nothing else, its collapse will be media worthy.

Temporary effect. A little bigger impact than Silk Road.

But, ultimately, 2014 is going to bring about the first fully licensed U.S. bitcoin exchange(s). And that exchange(s) is going to be the foremost place to trade bitcoins. 

[GigaCoin]

Hi all,
Given the increasingly worrying news coming out of MTGox, it is time to start worrying about what will happen to the exchange rate, market confidence, and the Bitcoin image generally if Gox does implode, and take everyone's deposits with them.

My first worry is that to the outside world, Gox is the only exchange that matters.  Every publication uses the Gox price when they are talking about Bitcoin, and it's the only exchange that I've really seen talked about in the media.  If nothing else, its collapse will be media worthy.

Temporary effect. A little bigger impact than Silk Road.

But, ultimately, 2014 is going to bring about the first fully licensed U.S. bitcoin exchange(s). And that exchange(s) is going to be the foremost place to trade bitcoins. 

I thought coinbase and kraken are fully licensed already?

[GigaCoin]

Mtgox silence is truly amazing, they had almost 1 year to fix their stuff and launch midas.

The fact it is really easy to deposit money but almost impossible to withdraw is never ever a good sign, especially when 7 months went by with no resolution.

I do not wish for their demise, but given their poor track record and market manipulation they r asking for it. Its sad because they are part of bitcoin's history.

[Apostata]

Maybe MtGox has just decided that the US market is too much of a pain to deal with?  Their Japanese bank has also placed a limit on the number of wire transfers they can make in a day.  So they get backlogged

Is there something else I am missing? 

[spin]

Perhaps people should stop using the MtGox USD price as "the price".  They still get quoted as the market standard price when they obviously aren't market leading anymore.  
I like this price: https://bitcoinaverage.com/markets.htm#USD-nomillibit
Or a simpler options might be the highest volume price i.e. bitstamp.

[Edward50]

If its difficult to remove fiat from mt gox.

Can you remove bitcoins from mt gox easily?

Why do people just not remove bitcoins and cash out elsewhere?