Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?

[windjc]

Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't.

I hadn't noticed. Are we talking about "bears" or "perma bears"? The latter are not worth mentioning.

The latter started this thread. So, I would say that they are worth mentioning.

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[Edward50]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong?  What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Here's another dated Sept. 15th:

That would result in touching the 150$, I can't imagine how it would be possible.
IMO what happened today was a 'dead cat bounce', caused by minnows looking like whales, due to low volume.

Indeed it seems Tzupy is at the very least consistent. From Sept. 27th

I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.

Sept. 28th:

IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.

Nov. 5th (I've left out about 40 other bearish posts):

It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$,  and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.

I wasn't around herein 2013, but I would think that some unexpected things happened in 2013 that were unpredictable that may have flawed his analysis.

 I have not done my research into this but supposedly the US Government more or less accepted bitcoins and did not ban it. I saw how the government shut down e-gold some years ago and I always thought bitcoin days are numbered if it got too big.

The other unexpected was the China government letting bitcoin get so popular there. I would never thought this would happen, and more or less it didn't happen for long.

These seem to be two big driving forces that really helped bitcoin in 2013. In 2011/2012 I would not have invested much money for fear the US government would shut it down.

Not that this is really on-topic but just saying that some bears analysis are flawed for some major events happening in 2013 that were largely unexpected.

[notme]

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here.  Me included.  That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads.  I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance.  If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground.  The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading.  When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them.  We need less trolling and more education.  But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

I've seen it cycle a few times now.  Like I mentioned, bubbles pull in new users/traders until we saturate.  Then we do the "shake out the newbies" dance, which we are either in the middle or end of.  Sentiment (particularly on the forums) seems to me more like the middle than the end, meaning final capitulation is yet to come.  After capitulation, we will return to sanity/balance for a brief period.  It is always brief because bitcoin is amazing and eventually a new rally will kick off.

However, I haven't sold because I also acknowledge that at some point Bitcoin will outgrow our little echo chamber and at that point sentiment here won't mean much.  Also, I'm fairly content with my BTC holdings since they exceed my student loan debt and are my largest form of investment/savings.

[Edward50]

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

Exactly, but I don't think this can last for long. I think by people trying to save the market will find out that is too costly to do so. I think each upwards swing will be less and less as it would be too much easy money if we keep going down to $800 and up to $900. People are expecting that so it probably won't happen.

Either way, I think anyone is crazy to be sitting on bitcoins right now. The risk of it falling lower is much greater than it rising. I think smart money will sit this one out, at least that is what I have done. If you see a noticeable increase in demand then you can buy back in.

[windjc]

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here.  Me included.  That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads.  I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance.  If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground.  The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading.  When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them.  We need less trolling and more education.  But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

I've seen it cycle a few times now.  Like I mentioned, bubbles pull in new users/traders until we saturate.  Then we do the "shake out the newbies" dance, which we are either in the middle or end of.  Sentiment (particularly on the forums) seems to me like the middle than the end, meaning final capitulation is yet to come.  After capitulation, we will return to sanity/balance for a brief period.  It is always brief because bitcoin is amazing and eventually a new rally will kick off.

Its as fair of an opinion as any. I think this rally really put owning large numbers of bitcoins out of the realm of possibility for a lot of people on here and that has also created a sentiment among many that they missed out.

[windjc]

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

Exactly, but I don't think this can last for long. I think by people trying to save the market will find out that is too costly to do so. I think each upwards swing will be less and less as it would be too much easy money if we keep going down to $800 and up to $900. People are expecting that so it probably won't happen.

Either way, I think anyone is crazy to be sitting on bitcoins right now. The risk of it falling lower is much greater than it rising. I think smart money will sit this one out, at least that is what I have done. If you see a noticeable increase in demand then you can buy back in.

There is 4x as many btc bids than asks on Gox. If the market at ANY moment fears, and I say "fear" because alot of that money just wants cheaper bitcoins, a bullish movement the market could go up very very fast. All it needs is for sentiment to change to bullish and people will be fighting to get back in at the best price.

You may have your "mini" capitulation, but its a risk.

[Edward50]

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here.  Me included.  That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads.  I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance.  If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground.  The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading.  When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them.  We need less trolling and more education.  But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

I don't know why you think I have an agenda. I clearly stated my reasons for it going lower, I have also clearly stated that I cashed out all my bitcoins. I even labeled the post "bears only" clearly showing that it will be people posting about it going down. NO agenda, I am showing you where I put my money. Now I am genuinely curious where this market is going and curious about what other bears think.

In my last "bears only" thread when I asked about how low it will go, us bears came tot he conclusion that it would bottom out around $600 with a short drop into the $500's. That was the most popular answer to how low we would go and that is actually where it went. Bears were right 100%, not the bulls stating high prices and growth.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=368572.msg3942651#msg3942651

This is why I like to only have a bear only discussion because I feel bears are somehow smarter about the market and much more reasonable in their estimates.

I really don't know why you think I have an agenda here, I really just seek knowledge and will use that knowledge to base my decision on if I should put my money back into bitcoins or continue sitting out.

Here

[Edward50]

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here.  Me included.  That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads.  I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance.  If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground.  The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading.  When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them.  We need less trolling and more education.  But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

I've seen it cycle a few times now.  Like I mentioned, bubbles pull in new users/traders until we saturate.  Then we do the "shake out the newbies" dance, which we are either in the middle or end of.  Sentiment (particularly on the forums) seems to me like the middle than the end, meaning final capitulation is yet to come.  After capitulation, we will return to sanity/balance for a brief period.  It is always brief because bitcoin is amazing and eventually a new rally will kick off.

Its as fair of an opinion as any. I think this rally really put owning large numbers of bitcoins out of the realm of possibility for a lot of people on here and that has also created a sentiment among many that they missed out.

I would love to do a survey about new investors into bitcoins. I would think that they would say, geez, bitcoins were always around $10 for the longest time and then it went up to $1200 and was never able to recover after some big drops. I would think new investors would not want to pay this much for a bitcoin, they would simply think the boat was missed. Just a bit speculative bubble and it is over.

I have been saying for a long time that bitcoin at these prices is such a huge risk and not worth the reward, basically take your money and put it into something else. It would take such a large increase in market cap for the price of bitcoins to even go up 10%. Actually a 2% increase in price right now would double the market cap from what it was in 2012. People don't like to look at these things but they are real and add up.

Now for the guys who are sitting on bitcoins from when they are dirt cheap, then it is not a big deal to sit on them and speculate with them. But if you have to take your hard earned money and buy a bitcoin for $800 each... then it is a completely different story.

This is why I don't see bitcoin going higher any time soon. I also don't see new people coming into the market at any significant level. I would say the price rose from a few wealthy individuals and possibly china had some influence.

[MAbtc]

Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't.

I hadn't noticed. Are we talking about "bears" or "perma bears"? The latter are not worth mentioning.

The latter started this thread. So, I would say that they are worth mentioning.

Apparently you missed when he turned bull a little while back. It was short-lived, though.

My point was that neither perma bulls nor perma bears have "flexibility of mind." Bears do -- otherwise they wouldn't be bears. A perma bear is just a pig. Or a forum troll.

[Edward50]

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

Either way, I think anyone is crazy to be sitting on bitcoins right now. The risk of it falling lower is much greater than it rising. I think smart money will sit this one out, at least that is what I have done. If you see a noticeable increase in demand then you can buy back in.

How do you assess the increase/decrease in demand?  Is it by the rate of the price moving up/down or some other observation/tool?  I'd be interested in knowing. 

Good question. I don't use any of those sophisticated graphs and tools as if they worked then everybody would be rich. They probably have very little predictive power. If they worked you could just create a computer program to trade.

You just get a feel for the market and where it is headed, you take as much information as you can in and just make an educated guess. Kind of like intuition. You really do need to take into account as much information as possible to even being close to accurate. Sometimes I spend 5 to10 hours a day or more reading about bitcoins and watching the prices, listening to different people's opinions etc.

However, I always had a very good intelligence of taking in a lot of different information and being able to combine all that together and use it to make decisions. I noticed most other people seem to learn quicker but take in smaller amounts of information and are not able to use that information or combine it for any reasonable usefulness. Kind of like reading a book. I read a book much slower than other people but then I am able to make comparisons and use the information much better. Other people read much quicker but are not able to use what they learned. 

Why am I saying this, not everybody has the proper intelligence to make good market decisions, and you really can't use tools or graphs. The key to being even somewhat right is to take in as much information as possible from as many different sources as you can and hopefully have the proper intelligence to combine all this information together to help have predictive power. Very few people have this intelligence, but it may be more prominent on internet forums as it attracts more intelligent people. However, just because you write well doesn't mean jack.

[The Bitcoin Foundation]

Except
 

Fibonacci Retracement

Its like magic

[Edward50]

This rally will be short lived and we should go down into the 700's from here, probably tomorrow it will happen.

The price had a little rally because some people think they can buy now and then make a quick buck selling at $900 like the last two mini rallies, I doubt it will happen again as nobody will buy their bitcoins at a higher price when they know the price will probably fall back down.

Anyone holding their bitcoins now are crazy not to sell them and sit with fiat right now. A rally is almost certain not to happen, and there is such a good chance of it going lower.

[Tzupy]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong?  What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Here's another dated Sept. 15th:

That would result in touching the 150$, I can't imagine how it would be possible.
IMO what happened today was a 'dead cat bounce', caused by minnows looking like whales, due to low volume.

Indeed it seems Tzupy is at the very least consistent. From Sept. 27th

I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.

Sept. 28th:

IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.

Nov. 5th (I've left out about 40 other bearish posts):

It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$,  and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.

It seems someone doesn't understand the BEARS ONLY title, but since I was attacked, let's straighten the facts:

1) the capitulation (wave C bottom) of the previous bubble ended on the 5th July 2013, and the capitulation of this one is still to come.
Nothing wrong here, unless you count the bottom until the 7th July, when the new bubble started.
2) for September 2013, once the market hit 148$ on Gox on the 1st, 150$ was a ceiling that wasn't reached in that sub-wave.
3) the SR crash happened on the 2nd October, not the 3rd as I predicted, and the price went down to 110$ (85$ on Bitstamp), not 115$.
The bad SR news may have triggered it a bit early and stronger than 'normal'.

4) it wasn't corrective wave A, only corrective wave 2. Low volume before it made accurate timing difficult.
5) yes I was wrong, I couldn't believe that in 2013 there would be people willing to pay 1000$ for a bitcoin.

You could have done your homework better, I made some worse predictions than those.
But in the meantime I understood the distortions of the waves that made me misidentify the market's stages. And I had to think bigger.

[Miz4r]

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here.  Me included.  That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads.  I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance.  If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground.  The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading.  When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them.  We need less trolling and more education.  But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

This is the speculation forum, you can expect lots of people in here who just want to make money and couldn't care less what bitcoin stands for or is hoping to achieve. If you want sincerity this part of the forum is probably the worst place to look for it. I just see this as a form of entertainment while I pick up some valuable lessons about trading here and there. If you go outside and visit real life bitcoin conferences and meet-ups you will see the attitude is generally much more positive and sincere. I kinda hate to be addicted to this place myself really, but I just have this thing for charts, numbers and yelling choochoo to the moon when the price goes up.

[MatTheCat]

I would love to do a survey about new investors into bitcoins. I would think that they would say, geez, bitcoins were always around $10 for the longest time and then it went up to $1200 and was never able to recover after some big drops. I would think new investors would not want to pay this much for a bitcoin, they would simply think the boat was missed. Just a bit speculative bubble and it is over.

I am a 'newb' as far as investing capital in Bitcoin goes with the sole intention of turning a fiat profit from it and you are right. $800 Bitcoins are far too steep for my liking, having said that, I shall buy around $15K worth when they hit $790, and then sell the lot when it touches $810.

When Bitcoin trends into sub $400 territory, then I think we may be back in a range where some long term Bitcoins can be bought and held. Right when Bitcoin was up at around $1100 mark, some dude made a post in this forum showing some kind of exponential chart which proved that Bitcoin always returned to the 'mean' after its meteoric rises and crashes. Right now that 'mean' should be around $350, having said that, it can also be expected that Bitcoin under shoot this mean, so going by this theory, sub $350 coins would be a great deal in the long term, although with Bitcoin, I think it is a safe statement to make 'that with Bitcoin, anything can happen'. Just as Bitcoin can shock people with how high it can go, at some point, it is going to shock us all with how low it can go.

[fonzie]

BTC  4 digits RxIxP 01/2014

[gizmoh]

I would love to do a survey about new investors into bitcoins. I would think that they would say, geez, bitcoins were always around $10 for the longest time and then it went up to $1200 and was never able to recover after some big drops. I would think new investors would not want to pay this much for a bitcoin, they would simply think the boat was missed. Just a bit speculative bubble and it is over.

I have been saying for a long time that bitcoin at these prices is such a huge risk and not worth the reward, basically take your money and put it into something else. It would take such a large increase in market cap for the price of bitcoins to even go up 10%. Actually a 2% increase in price right now would double the market cap from what it was in 2012. People don't like to look at these things but they are real and add up.

Now for the guys who are sitting on bitcoins from when they are dirt cheap, then it is not a big deal to sit on them and speculate with them. But if you have to take your hard earned money and buy a bitcoin for $800 each... then it is a completely different story.

This is why I don't see bitcoin going higher any time soon. I also don't see new people coming into the market at any significant level. I would say the price rose from a few wealthy individuals and possibly china had some influence.

Nailed it perfectly.
I'l add that Good news is now not having much effect on the price while bad news sends price down immediately.
And i'm not talking about possible Black Swan events like Closing /Bankruptcy of MtGox

[traderCJ]

I would love to do a survey about new investors into bitcoins. I would think that they would say, geez, bitcoins were always around $10 for the longest time and then it went up to $1200 and was never able to recover after some big drops. I would think new investors would not want to pay this much for a bitcoin, they would simply think the boat was missed. Just a bit speculative bubble and it is over.

I have been saying for a long time that bitcoin at these prices is such a huge risk and not worth the reward, basically take your money and put it into something else. It would take such a large increase in market cap for the price of bitcoins to even go up 10%. Actually a 2% increase in price right now would double the market cap from what it was in 2012. People don't like to look at these things but they are real and add up.

Now for the guys who are sitting on bitcoins from when they are dirt cheap, then it is not a big deal to sit on them and speculate with them. But if you have to take your hard earned money and buy a bitcoin for $800 each... then it is a completely different story.

This is why I don't see bitcoin going higher any time soon. I also don't see new people coming into the market at any significant level. I would say the price rose from a few wealthy individuals and possibly china had some influence.

Nailed it perfectly.
I'l add that Good news is now not having much effect on the price while bad news sends price down immediately.
And i'm not talking about possible Black Swan events like Closing /Bankruptcy of MtGox

I get nervous when Stamp leads a plunge.  That tells me people are taking profits off the exchange.  Miners may be getting nervous and selling coins to cover expected utility costs over the next few months.  More adoption of Bitcoin is great, but this simply puts downward pressure on the price until people recharge.  I don't think people are recharging.  It's still a pain in the ass for regular folks to get Bitcoin.  Big barrier to entry.  Also, my hunch is the bulk of people transacting in Bitcoin at the moment have been around for > 6 months.  Buying new coins at these prices is mentally taxing.

The potential black swans you've mentioned are definitely casting a pall over the market.  China is unpredictable.  More attention is being given to the risks of mining centralization.

I am a bit puzzled that with all of the good news, the market still insists on sliding.  Also, the past two weekend pumps were bizarre.

[JimboToronto]

Bears only discussion please, please post elsewhere if you're bullish. Serious discussion only here.

Sounds like an oxymoron. Let's wallow in our narrow groupthink, exclude balanced debate, and call it "serious discussion".

LOL   hahaha

It's more like putting the blinders on.

[fonzie]

We have only seen the beginning of the end of the bulltrap. I´m seein 550$(Stamp) by Monday. Don´t try to catch fallin knifes when it is going to happen.