2014 could be a slow year for bitcoin

[wobber]

Given the huge price increase in 2013 and the way 2014 started, with a sharp rise to ~1000 and long rest time in the 800s, I'm speculating that we'll see more price stabilization and less ups/downs for a looong time.

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

Check this:
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top500

You'll see positions 33-36 (4 addresses) and 38, 40, 43, 44, 45 each one with ~30,000 coins, all wallets with last transaction in on Dec 20, 2013 9:07:23 PM. This means about 250,000 coins held by a single entity.

You'll also see positions 79-98 (20 addresses) with about 10,000 coins each, last tx in on Dec 25, 2013 11:26:40 PM. Total is about 200,000 coins.

If we sum first 500 address, that means 4,364,182 BTC. I'm assuming less than 50 people control these 4 million coins.

This mean scarcity and scarcity means high price. High price means less buyers and less buyers mean less volatility.

Welcome to 2014, year of bitcoin stagnation.

[Apostata]

Given the huge price increase in 2013 and the way 2014 started, with a sharp rise to ~1000 and long rest time in the 800s, I'm speculating that we'll see more price stabilization and less ups/downs for a looong time.

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

Check this:
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top500

You'll see positions 33-36 (4 addresses) and 38, 40, 43, 44, 45 each one with ~30,000 coins, all wallets with last transaction in on Dec 20, 2013 9:07:23 PM. This means about 250,000 coins held by a single entity.

You'll also see positions 79-98 (20 addresses) with about 10,000 coins each, last tx in on Dec 25, 2013 11:26:40 PM. Total is about 200,000 coins.

If we sum first 500 address, that means 4,364,182 BTC. I'm assuming less than 50 people control these 4 million coins.

This mean scarcity and scarcity means high price. High price means less buyers and less buyers mean less volatility.

Welcome to 2014, year of bitcoin stagnation.

We are at day 19/365 of 2014. Patience is a virtue. 

[Akka]

Stagnation for a while would be a good thing.

1. It would increase the confidence of people that Bitcoin is not in a bubble and can hold the current price levels.
2. It would counter the argument that Bitcoin is to volatile to work.
3. Bitcoin Price has got far ahead of the infrastructure around it. It would give it time to catch up.
4. Currently the focus of most people in Bitcoin is only about the price and Bitcoin as an investment. Stability would slowly shift the focus to usage of Bitcoin.


All in all I would greatly welcome a longer stable period.

[wobber]

Of course, a multi-month stagnation would be very good for the economy. And for some people's health, they won't loose nights to watch bitcoinity anymore.

[T.Stuart]

We are at day 19/365 of 2014. Patience is a virtue. 

+1

[wobber]

We are at day 19/365 of 2014. Patience is a virtue.  

+1

Hopers...

[seleme]

Stagnation? Yes, this year we're probably going up only 300-400%

[pungopete468]

Stagnation? Yes, this year we're probably going up only 300-400%

I'm staking my money on $7,000 to $12,000 before the end of the year.

Makes no difference to me. I buy .1 BTC every week regardless.

[Ibian]

Place your bets ladies and gentlefolk -> http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

[knightcoin]

I do agree that maybe mining will slow down ( acceleration ) compared to 2013 boom ( the only way to know precisely is asking to asic miners industry to open up their worksheets to the public.. witch is very unlikely due their own field competition) but as we reach half of bitcoin production the other side of bitcoin business as a service such as shopping, payment system, and others financial products has just began ...    

[joehal]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

What do you mean "too high" ? Why can't I buy a pizza or a single candy with bitcoin ?
And what do you mean "the price is too high" ? Can't I buy some bitcoin to hold for my 50 $ ?

[c0ldfusi0nz]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

What do you mean "too high" ? Why can't I buy a pizza or a single candy with bitcoin ?
And what do you mean "the price is too high" ? Can't I buy some bitcoin to hold for my 50 $ ?

It's a psychological problem that's a result of the cognitive bias known as the unit bias. I'm constantly amazed by how many people tell me they are interested in Bitcoin but haven't bought any because they can't afford it. The fact that bitcoins are extremely divisible seems to never be mentioned by the media, thus the average person doesn't even know that's a feature.

[DPoS]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

What do you mean "too high" ? Why can't I buy a pizza or a single candy with bitcoin ?
And what do you mean "the price is too high" ? Can't I buy some bitcoin to hold for my 50 $ ?

It's a psychological problem that's a result of the cognitive bias known as the unit bias. I'm constantly amazed by how many people tell me they are interested in Bitcoin but haven't bought any because they can't afford it. The fact that bitcoins are extremely divisible seems to never be mentioned by the media, thus the average person doesn't even know that's a feature.

I've said before this problem just needs some corny marketing of naming smaller units.  If bitcoin was just an American thing, you could have .01 btc = Clintons, .0001 Nixons... lol

but since btc is international, could have stuff like .01 = Plato  .0001 = Socrates, .000001 = Confucius, or whatever theme that would catch on


a lot of normal people hate numbers past two decimal places and any technical crap that reminds them of school like this chart units


so in practice you would just have three more names before getting down to Satoshis.   and it would be easier for microtransactions to say something is 85 Confucius instead of .000085 bitcoins

a hundred Socrates = 1 Plato, 1 Socrates = 100 Confucius, etc



just something that people can wrap their headaround..  

[knightcoin]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

What do you mean "too high" ? Why can't I buy a pizza or a single candy with bitcoin ?
And what do you mean "the price is too high" ? Can't I buy some bitcoin to hold for my 50 $ ?

It's a psychological problem that's a result of the cognitive bias known as the unit bias. I'm constantly amazed by how many people tell me they are interested in Bitcoin but haven't bought any because they can't afford it. The fact that bitcoins are extremely divisible seems to never be mentioned by the media, thus the average person doesn't even know that's a feature.

I've said before this problem just needs some corny marketing of naming smaller units.  If bitcoin was just an American thing, you could have .01 btc = Clintons, .0001 Nixons... lol

but since btc is international, could have stuff like .01 = Plato  .0001 = Socrates, .000001 = Confucius, or whatever theme that would catch on


a lot of normal people hate numbers past two decimal places and any technical crap that reminds them of school like this chart units


so in practice you would just have three more names before getting down to Satoshis.   and it would be easier for microtransactions to say something is 85 Confucius instead of .000085 bitcoins

a hundred Socrates = 1 Plato, 1 Socrates = 100 Confucius, etc



just something that people can wrap their headaround..  

That's was cool 

[knightcoin]

I was reading something (white papers about hedging, future contracts, etc... ) but I got distracted lol

Space Ghost Coast to Coast "esurance" Commercial
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaO5YY0gIi4

[mskryxz]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

What do you mean "too high" ? Why can't I buy a pizza or a single candy with bitcoin ?
And what do you mean "the price is too high" ? Can't I buy some bitcoin to hold for my 50 $ ?

It's a psychological problem that's a result of the cognitive bias known as the unit bias. I'm constantly amazed by how many people tell me they are interested in Bitcoin but haven't bought any because they can't afford it. The fact that bitcoins are extremely divisible seems to never be mentioned by the media, thus the average person doesn't even know that's a feature.

I've said before this problem just needs some corny marketing of naming smaller units.  If bitcoin was just an American thing, you could have .01 btc = Clintons, .0001 Nixons... lol

but since btc is international, could have stuff like .01 = Plato  .0001 = Socrates, .000001 = Confucius, or whatever theme that would catch on


a lot of normal people hate numbers past two decimal places and any technical crap that reminds them of school like this chart units


so in practice you would just have three more names before getting down to Satoshis.   and it would be easier for microtransactions to say something is 85 Confucius instead of .000085 bitcoins

a hundred Socrates = 1 Plato, 1 Socrates = 100 Confucius, etc



just something that people can wrap their headaround..  

+1 i like the naming of international historical figures

[piramida]

If we sum first 500 address, that means 4,364,182 BTC. I'm assuming less than 50 people control these 4 million coins.

Based on what? Dividing by ten for no reason?

And check the historical graphs for some pointers on what is the only thing that bitcoin price have done after a prolonged stagnation at one level.

[spooderman]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

ugh here:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=decimal+point

[harlenadler]

i agree, price must return to equity with a pizza for people to buy again. 

[byt411]

i agree, price must return to equity with a pizza for people to buy again. 

If it ever gets to that rate, I would happily buy all your bitcoins. And I would keep mining on, since difficulty would drop.