Biggest sell signal if we go under 5.70-5.80 level

[BubbleBoy]

The whole "price can't fall bellow X because miners will do Y" line of thought is flawed. If the price falls, the most inefficient miners will start to go offline, as they sink more and more underwater. The decrease in difficulty will make the remaining miners more profitable, so an equilibrium will be reached. The same happens if the price increases, new miners come online and eat up the large profit margin, leaving only those with the thinnest margins or the best technology.

The price can fall very nicely bellow 4$, 1$, 0.1$ and any such arbitrary limit because it's only supported by the interest of people buying into the currency, at a rate at least equal with the mining rate. If miners hoard instead of selling  it makes no difference: they are effectively Bitcoin buyers, they buy with the resources used for mining which as explained above have a financial value very close to the market price.

So you tell me, what is the net buy-in Bitcoin will see each month ? If you got that you can easily compute the market price:
- 1 million $/ month -> 5$/BTC
- 200K $/ month -> 1$/BTC
etc.

In order to sustain that price you need to have consistent buy-in month after month. There's simply not enough going on in the bitcoin economy to warrant such large positive cash inflows. It's a currency used, literally, only by the members of this forum. Maybe a few thousands - tens of thousand dollars a month, leading to a BTC price in the pennies range. We have a long way down people.

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[N12]

*whew* good thing bitcoins are designed as a means of exchange and not an investment

Ah, so that’s why there’s a 21 mil cap.

[finnthecelt]

Technically we could easily go under $1.00. It will be very interesting to see how many keep mining as we drop here. The trend is definitely down.

The nominal price of BTC only matters is miner intends to HOLD BTC.

For a miner who mines and sells on a regular basis Price * Difficulty is a better measure of profitability. 

For example a miner generates same amount of revenue (in $) with either:
$100BTC & 1777774.48 difficultly
$1.00BTC & 17777.7448 difficultly
$0.01BTC & 17777.7448 difficultly
$0.001BTC & 177.777448 difficultly

I will now be mining at a loss but I will keep mining. I'm in this for the long haul and will accept the "investment cost" of electricity. When I was buying silver I was parting with cash and now the metal just sits there for future use. The risk is MUCH higher for the BTC though.

Why?  When you were investing in silver if you could buy it for $4/oz or mine it yourself for $9/oz which would be a better investment.

If your cost to "build" one BTC is $4.00 and you can simply buy BTC on the market for $3.00 why would you overpay?

EVERYONE buys BTC.  Miner just buy it indirectly in the form of electricity and amortized hardware.

LOL! You are so right. Ever since I wrote that I've been thinking about it..... Why would I depreciate my gear when I could take the cash and buy MORE BTC?

Difficulty is going to plummet. I'd say I'll have the miners shut down for maybe a month.

[kloinko1n]

It was about time that those 'greedy miners' would panic and sell off all their bitcoins.
Now the crime syndicates can buy them and start doing their business with it.
Expect the price to rise soon after the crash! 

[niko]

(...) The hole problem is that Bitcoin is inflating at a very high rate, the miners have to much power over the price of Bitcoin, the only way to stop that is to do what they are doing to the Bitcoin Economy. Stop them from making easy money. I have said this from the very beginning, look at my old posts, maybe someone understands this...

Speculation is easier and more profitable than mining. And speculators have too much power over the price of Bitcoin, not miners. Hence the concept of "moving the market." As for inflation, it is the way it is, and it is so by design. Everyone knows it, there is nothing unexpected about it, so it can't really be a problem - it's simply the reality.

Many people know about it, but far from all of them really understands it. The concept of a high inflation environment is hard to grasp.

Alright, we all need to do a better job understanding Bitcoin inflation, and educating others about it.  This would prevent lots of misunderstandings that are costly to those who misunderstand it.

[David M]

When the priced breached the sub $6 low (~$5.74 or whatever the blow off trade bottom was)*, I expect the next major bottom/sell off point** to be $4.13.

* I was not expecting that low to be taken out.
** A trader's schizophrenia.

YMMV.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Smart Money Drives the Financial Markets? ~Tom Williams: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jwEwlZnSFY

[ElectricMucus]

When the priced breached the sub $6 low (~$5.74 or whatever the blow off trade bottom was)*, I expect the next major bottom/sell off point** to be $4.13.

* I was not expecting that low to be taken out.
** A trader's schizophrenia.

YMMV.

That would be scraping the trendline. However fear is strong right now and if the panic increases we could reach 3.24 I wouldn't bet on it but it could happen.

PS: yeah it's me green-line guy 

[skubeedooo]

but they are fighting all the greedy miners that are selling their coins at the exchanges

Where would you get your coins to buy and sell without us greedy miners?  

Let me see, we have already 7 + million coins in the Bitcoin Economy. We need miners that believe in the Bitcoin Economy long term, not greedy miners that hit the exchanges with sell orders asap.

Nonsense.  Bitcoin doesn't need miners to write blank cheques for it to survive.  If the price was $0.01 or $100 it would not make much difference, what matters is volatility.  Why would anyone care what the absolute level is?  What matters is that they can easily transfer btc into real currency and back, so that there is little or no market risk when making transactions.  The problem we have had is the transition from hobbyist miners who 'hoard' bitcoins to professional miners who sell as they mine.  The price will naturally converge to the rate at which investors put money in divided by the rate bitcoins are mined.  No problemo.  Why all the angst?