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Author Topic: If you're not out, get out.  (Read 24661 times)
cbeast
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October 18, 2011, 12:45:15 AM
 #121


Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.


Yes, get out. I want to buy 6 Million @ 0.1

I will outbid you at 0.11  Cheesy

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October 18, 2011, 01:41:57 AM
 #122

You have to keep in mind that the Bitcoin supply is expanding at 35% per year (7200 BTC generated every day with a current BTC supply of 7.5 million).
No, it's not worth keeping in mind. That 0.1% daily monetary inflation is insignificant to btc price movement which has depreciated 1.5% daily since June.

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October 18, 2011, 02:05:18 AM
 #123

Looks like volatility is dying down, we're going to be doing the flatline stagnation thing.  Whew.  Time to enjoy a few well-deserved days of no 30% drops.
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October 18, 2011, 02:40:21 AM
 #124

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

If there had been Bitcoin options in June, offered by a counterparty strong enough to pay off if the price tanked, I would have bought some.

Bitcoinica is only a month old, and already their customers are complaining about troubles getting money out.  I wouldn't deal with any options dealer who didn't have a contractual commitment to settle by day T+3.  I suspect that a lot of people are going to end up holding the bag when the exchanges shut down.
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October 18, 2011, 03:09:11 AM
 #125

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

If there had been Bitcoin options in June, offered by a counterparty strong enough to pay off if the price tanked, I would have bought some.

Bitcoinica is only a month old, and already their customers are complaining about troubles getting money out.  I wouldn't deal with any options dealer who didn't have a contractual commitment to settle by day T+3.  I suspect that a lot of people are going to end up holding the bag when the exchanges shut down.

Bitcoin also had a few 25%+ intra day upward swings on the way down too.  Just one or two of those events could have wiped out any position with Bitcoinica.

The market is too small and immature to provide a serious short selling service.  I doubt one will thrive with the current volatility.

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October 18, 2011, 03:09:36 AM
 #126

Moreover, it was only a couple of days ago that you could fund your bitcoinica account with BTC (as opposed to money).  Until then it was too much work for me to do that, even though I too was beating the bear drum.

The other problem with shorting: the money making premise is based on the fact that something is overvalued.  When there's no rational tie between pricing and value what's to keep it from becoming vastly more overvalued before it crashes?  5:1 leverage is very much a double edged sword.  You could get a margin call and lose a fortune while still being right.  

Add to that unlimited downside with limited upside and it takes iron discipline to trade short.  A short position is not something you can leave open while not looking.


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October 18, 2011, 03:37:06 AM
 #127

Looks like volatility is dying down, we're going to be doing the flatline stagnation thing.  Whew.  Time to enjoy a few well-deserved days of no 30% drops.


Yeah, I like the breaks between the drops.  Oh, see you at $1.80 after the next drop.
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June 12, 2013, 07:13:16 AM
 #128

' "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable."  '

These in a mocking tone from the OP are soooooo hilarious to me now  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Anyone reading this:  Nagle apparently hasn't been seen around here for awhile, so I dunno how he/she/it is doing and I genuinely hope it's "not too bad" ...  But it's just awesome on a personal note that for once in my mostly miserable life, I'm able to tell everyone I know and ever knew (about any arbitrary thing) that:  "I Told You So".  In a BIG way  Cheesy

Seriously, I hope Nagle is ok.

Man, necro-bumping is fun!   Grin

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June 12, 2013, 07:14:54 AM
 #129

There are tons of such doomsayers threads.  It is up to the individual to buy or sell.  Do not get influence by them.
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June 12, 2013, 07:24:47 AM
 #130

We have to admit at that time, this kind of posts caused discomfort among everybody. BTC had never proved to be able to resist what he was facing: bubble pop followed by slow and continuous decline, negative media exposure, etc... We all knew it was not a "ponzi", but still, it was not empirically proved that it could resist the stress it was under.

This is why I always say that this is no 2011. This time the doomsayers are mocked. Most of the people is sure that BTC will rise again stronger sooner or later, even if it goes to single digits for a while (which won't happen IMO). The ones who sold, are just waiting for cheaper coins to load the truck. The "bitcoin is a ponzi" has empirically proved as a false statement, nobody with half a brain could say such a thing in 2013. In 2011 it was different.

Bubbles have to burst all the way down before growth is resumed. But this time the bottom will be higher than most 2011-butthurt-bears expect.

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June 12, 2013, 07:28:59 AM
 #131

There are tons of such doomsayers threads.  It is up to the individual to buy or sell.  Do not get influence by them.

Just want to point out for clarity's sake that this thread was very recently necrobumped from 9/2011

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June 12, 2013, 07:37:29 AM
 #132

So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?
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June 12, 2013, 07:42:23 AM
 #133

So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

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June 12, 2013, 07:53:09 AM
 #134

So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months Sad
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June 12, 2013, 07:55:06 AM
 #135

So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?
Few people in the thread were entirely right. Nagle certainly wasn't.



I'm the original poster in this topic. I called the collapse of Bitcoin on June 11, 2011.  I wrote "Bitcoin, the new "digital currency", looks like a Ponzi scheme. Only Ponzi schemes chart like that. When Ponzi schemes crash, they crash fast, and they crash all the way." "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."

It's been all downhill since then. The price was $17 then. It's dropped $4 per month for the last four months.  It's at $2.52 now.

Our criterion for "Dead" on Downside was when the price was off 90% from the high. Bitcoin is now dead.

We warned you. You didn't listen.

If you have substantial cash in an exchange, get it out now. We're going to find out quite soon which exchanges have all the customer's cash and which don't.
He called bitcoin "dead" $0.52 and 30 days away from the two year low from which we haven't come remotely close to having seen again.

This is the best call in the entire thread.

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.

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June 12, 2013, 07:55:16 AM
 #136

So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months Sad

Turn that frown upside down!  This is a happy necrobump!  Grin  Cheesy  Wink

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June 12, 2013, 07:58:36 AM
 #137

So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months Sad

Turn that frown upside down!  This is a happy necrobump!  Grin  Cheesy  Wink

I don't know, people seem to focus too much on OMG LOL 5 DOLLA WAS EXPENSIVE AND NOW ITS 100!!1111 instead of the fact that people who listened, waited for two months and invested only after the long-term sideways motion began and full capitulation phase was reached (1/16) from the top made much much much more money.
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June 12, 2013, 07:59:05 AM
 #138


This is the best call in the entire thread.

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.

Agreed (with your entire post; I just snipped it for readability)

This was shortly before that meelba incident too... or around the same time.  Bitcoinica provided a great service... in a real bear market.  Wonder how Bitfinex is doing...

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June 12, 2013, 08:40:45 AM
 #139

Why not get out of US dollar market that depends solely on 70 percent of  American consumers. Smiley Anyways bitcoin was worth nothing when it started and I could read 4 year old literature which pegs bitcoin to 15 dollars. Cheesy
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June 12, 2013, 09:06:28 AM
 #140



Someone mentioned it recently, that the 2013 "bubble" deflate is more like the August 2012 shock than the 2011 bubble.
If so, then it could easily oscillate around $100-$120 for the rest of year, only to begin a further climb in 2014.

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