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Author Topic: If you're not out, get out.  (Read 24663 times)
Minsc
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September 15, 2011, 09:09:40 PM
 #81

Amen. The whole notion that $4 or $5 is cheap while $30 would be high is, quite frankly, laughable. Its not a stock you can measure against P/E ratio's, its not a national currency you can measure against gross domestic product. There really isnt any yardstick.

It's based on how much someone will pay for it.

I'd personally love to buy a million coins for $30 each and if I had $31 million dollars I seriously would.  ($1 million extra for the Gox fees).

I don't have pretty much anything moneywise to buy coins or I'd be buying them back to $8.

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September 15, 2011, 09:29:49 PM
 #82

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It's based on how much someone will pay for it.

No, that is the spot price. Speculation of future value fuels it, panic removes it. Results are endless booms and busts looking for an equilibrium thats based on its value as a transaction tool, since it has no other intrinsic value.

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September 15, 2011, 09:39:30 PM
 #83

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It's based on how much someone will pay for it.

No, that is the spot price. Speculation of future value fuels it, panic removes it. Results are endless booms and busts looking for an equilibrium thats based on its value as a transaction tool, since it has no other intrinsic value.

The hashchain  can be used to validate the existence of any digital data. Just send some satoshis to it's hash.

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September 16, 2011, 12:36:09 AM
 #84

7200BTC per day is the correct estimation.  You have 50BTC per 10 minutes - that is 6 * 50BTC = 300BTC per hour and 300 * 24 = 7200 per day.
No, it isn't. I was talking about the actual amount miners sell, not the amount that is mined. That was evident from my previous posts. It's obvious that the amount mined is 7200.

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grod
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September 16, 2011, 02:27:43 AM
 #85

7200BTC per day is the correct estimation.  You have 50BTC per 10 minutes - that is 6 * 50BTC = 300BTC per hour and 300 * 24 = 7200 per day.
No, it isn't. I was talking about the actual amount miners sell, not the amount that is mined. That was evident from my previous posts. It's obvious that the amount mined is 7200.

And the amount actually sold matters less than you think.  I can estimate that at a minimum 200k coins made their way to MtGox since the last hack until the hacks which caused the spike to 7.7 Sunday.   That was enough to bring us from $17.5 to $4.5.

What is more relevant is the total number of coins has increased, and continues increasing at a fairly steady rate.  Unless there's something to cause the total market cap of the bitcoin ecosystem to increase those 210,000 coins are monthly pressure to the downside. 

People are $35,000 richer today than yesterday, even if it's on paper.  Unless more money gets deposited to keep the pyramid propped up that value came from existing buy-and-holders.

I don't have hard numbers.   I do know we had 500k coins in MtGox's account when it was last hacked.  I do know 75% of mining power is new, and those people (like me) got in for dollars.  A million coins have been mined since the $32 high, and even .2% of that amount is enough to move the price 10% today.

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September 16, 2011, 01:03:52 PM
 #86

I don't have hard numbers.   I do know we had 500k coins in MtGox's account when it was last hacked.  I do know 75% of mining power is new, and those people (like me) got in for dollars.  A million coins have been mined since the $32 high, and even .2% of that amount is enough to move the price 10% today.
We can agree to disagree but this doesn't change anything. Fact is that people were holding other 6 million coins while the seventh was mined. The miner effect is undoubtedly smaller, significantly smaller, than the effect from constant back and forth trade from traders and speculators, and the unloading of large amounts by early adopters and long term / mid term investors.

In fact, I think that recently the selling of stolen coins has been almost as significant as what the miners have sold. But this can be debated. I don't think that the miner effect is irrelevant, I simply think it's significantly overrated. Now, during the decline of the economy, the effect has been larger but it'll soon be negated (by increased demand) as it has been in the past.

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September 23, 2011, 04:01:05 PM
 #87

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Are we suffering yet?

Actually  not. Atm I'm feeling pretty good, at least semi-bullish and am thinking of another mining rig funded by the swings of the last week or so Grin

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September 24, 2011, 05:21:31 AM
 #88

Yeah, everyone's bullish.  Hash rate starting to climb on deepbit.  But price isn't really going where I'd like to sell at. 

Permabulls need to stop talking up the price and start depositing more money.  A lot more.  And they need to do it before thanksgiving/xmas holidays hit and we get "the usual" just like we do every long weekend.
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September 24, 2011, 12:37:46 PM
 #89

Permabulls need to stop talking up the price and start depositing more money.  A lot more.  And they need to do it before thanksgiving/xmas holidays hit and we get "the usual" just like we do every long weekend.

Bulls will deposit money into bitcoins if they see value.  No value?  No extra money.  Plenty of people are doing their utmost to talk bitcoins up on this forum, but only money truly counts.

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September 24, 2011, 01:18:25 PM
 #90

I stopped mining and trading over a month ago. I transferred my USD to my bank and my remaining bitcoins are stored in an offline USB stick. I see them as free tokens, saved in the hope that something comes of bitcoin. I made more than enough money during the bubble to cover the costs of the hardware and electricity (and more).

At the moment, bitcoin is synonymous with scammers, cheats and thieves - or worse, dominated by people who have absolutely zero business acumen. I can see why the bubble is bursting.

Bitcoin is/was a good idea, but it was screwed over by greed, crime, incompetence and general human nature.

Will bitcoin survive? Only time will tell. I'm just very glad that I have no real money tied up in it any more.
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September 24, 2011, 02:08:15 PM
 #91

Permabulls need to stop talking up the price and start depositing more money.  A lot more.  And they need to do it before thanksgiving/xmas holidays hit and we get "the usual" just like we do every long weekend.

Bulls will deposit money into bitcoins if they see value.  No value?  No extra money.

Also:

No extra money = No extra money.

What i mean is there might be bulls that desperately WANT to put money in but don't have any spare at the moment.

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Bigpiggy01
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September 24, 2011, 02:26:16 PM
 #92

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What i mean is there might be bulls that desperately WANT to put money in but don't have any spare at the moment.

+1 Some of us also have stupid funding times depending on our locations Sad

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September 24, 2011, 03:16:36 PM
 #93

I stopped mining and trading over a month ago. I transferred my USD to my bank and my remaining bitcoins are stored in an offline USB stick. I see them as free tokens, saved in the hope that something comes of bitcoin. I made more than enough money during the bubble to cover the costs of the hardware and electricity (and more).

At the moment, bitcoin is synonymous with scammers, cheats and thieves - or worse, dominated by people who have absolutely zero business acumen. I can see why the bubble is bursting.

Bitcoin is/was a good idea, but it was screwed over by greed, crime, incompetence and general human nature.

Will bitcoin survive? Only time will tell. I'm just very glad that I have no real money tied up in it any more.

Decentralised systems tend to take much longer to reach a satisfactory level of quality than systems created and controlled by an agent.  The mechanic of the first is evolution whereas that of the second is intelligent design.

Human nature is human nature, there's no getting away from it.  For me, Bitcoin is not so much synonymous with scammers, cheats, and thieves as it is with freedom and bravery.

Will Bitcoin survive? only time will tell.
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October 17, 2011, 05:53:33 AM
 #94

TO OP, yes I think they are all suffering. I warned to.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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October 17, 2011, 06:46:11 AM
 #95

Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!
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October 17, 2011, 07:07:27 AM
 #96

Human nature is human nature, there's no getting away from it.  For me, Bitcoin is not so much synonymous with scammers, cheats, and thieves as it is with freedom and bravery.

I think it's worth noting that we are so much used to centralized systems that social associations with Bitcoin decentralized systems in general affects our judgement more than it needs to. Whatever associations Bitcoin might get to carry, whatever it will be traded for, it will still be there for us that have a legitimate and practical use for it. Some of us have been thinking about and hoping for such a system to arise for a long time. For someone who has been thinking about this before it happened, it's a too brilliant and elegant idea to just be left by itself. I would lose a huge portion of my hope for humanity if Bitcoin did die.
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October 17, 2011, 09:34:43 AM
 #97

Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!

Congrats.
Did you short on bitcoinica?

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October 17, 2011, 10:56:09 AM
 #98

Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!

Congrats.
Did you short on bitcoinica?

whate else.

like every second wise-crack inside this forum advocating the total-death of bitcoin (you must know it since you shortsell it to death, don't you?)

bitcointalk seems to me increasingly like a selffullfilling prophency of the bitcoin death. no more enthusiasms but increasing zynical shortselling and making profit with killing the only real quality alternative currency having potential to change world economy. great job! hope you greed makes you happy.

as long as a majority of members inside here play daytrader and shortbetter and whatever, but on the same hand are esotherikc "the bitcoin death is neeeear"-folks, i really really don't wonder why the course of BTC is sinking rapidly.

but i have to say: i hate it if something goes down not out of fundamentals, but because people are (bitcoin)talkING it to death!! and that is what you do! you say "THE COURSE WILL GO UNDER 0,5$!!!" and encourage everybody to sell with that. what happens?! the course goes to under 0,5$!

..but that is nothing near fundamental conservative trading, that is just manipulating speculation, and you know that! so stop it. just don't paint the devil onto the wall all the time, it just helps the shortseller on bitoinca, nobody else!

thanks
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October 17, 2011, 12:01:13 PM
 #99

Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!

Congrats.
Did you short on bitcoinica?

whate else.

like every second wise-crack inside this forum advocating the total-death of bitcoin (you must know it since you shortsell it to death, don't you?)

bitcointalk seems to me increasingly like a selffullfilling prophency of the bitcoin death. no more enthusiasms but increasing zynical shortselling and making profit with killing the only real quality alternative currency having potential to change world economy. great job! hope you greed makes you happy.

as long as a majority of members inside here play daytrader and shortbetter and whatever, but on the same hand are esotherikc "the bitcoin death is neeeear"-folks, i really really don't wonder why the course of BTC is sinking rapidly.

but i have to say: i hate it if something goes down not out of fundamentals, but because people are (bitcoin)talkING it to death!! and that is what you do! you say "THE COURSE WILL GO UNDER 0,5$!!!" and encourage everybody to sell with that. what happens?! the course goes to under 0,5$!

..but that is nothing near fundamental conservative trading, that is just manipulating speculation, and you know that! so stop it. just don't paint the devil onto the wall all the time, it just helps the shortseller on bitoinca, nobody else!

thanks


Yes the power of positivity will bring btc back  Roll Eyes

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Revalin
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October 17, 2011, 12:09:01 PM
 #100

like every second wise-crack inside this forum advocating the total-death of bitcoin

Let me stand up as one of the people who's glad to see it falling.

I don't want Bitcoin to die at all.  I just want the wild-eyed speculation that's turned it into a pyramid to die.  I'm after a decentralized transactional currency and until we have some stability here or in another cryptocurrency, I'm stuck doing my business with international wire transfers and other traditional banking bothers.  The longer people are hung up on trying to pump the price the longer I have to wait for the speculators to wash out of the market.

Quote
but i have to say: i hate it if something goes down not out of fundamentals, but because people are (bitcoin)talkING it to death!! and that is what you do! you say "THE COURSE WILL GO UNDER 0,5$!!!" and encourage everybody to sell with that. what happens?! the course goes to under 0,5$!

I've been talking fundamentals for a while, and here's my formula:

A = USD-value of goods and services purchased per day in BTC
B = Number of days buyers and sellers hold the coins before and after a transaction
C = Number of coins in circulation
D = Number of coins hoarded by (speculators/early adopters/whatever)

Fundamental price = A * B / (C - D)

When we hit that floor (I estimate it's well under a buck, probably in the low-cents range), it will not matter how much people preach doom and gloom; the price WILL stop falling, guaranteed.  It'll cushion well above that level (B and D will increase), but that's the hard floor.

Attempting to hold it higher by encouraging D while we're still far above the fundamental price increases volatility and increases the amount we're subsidizing miners, and ultimately just shifts who's holding the bag.

If you want a healthy market, focus on A.  As long as A increases, Bitcoin has a future, and the price will stabilize.  Without it, all the happy posts in the world won't save anything.

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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