grod
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September 16, 2011, 03:06:18 AM |
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Will it finally crash to $2?
My estimate is $1.25 is as low as it can go at current difficulty. Of course, if difficulty drops to 200k and we're looking at hour long confirms for 2 months we'll be thinking of $2 as the "new $20."
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druid
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September 16, 2011, 03:12:55 AM |
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your estimate is less than half of electricity production price? Elaborate please
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grod
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September 16, 2011, 03:23:14 AM |
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Based on namecoin observations. Many people are happy to mine for *MONTHS* at a 40-50% loss because they believe in upside potential. They can't make the mental connection between being long and producing being two completely unrelated activities, in their mind mining is not at a loss until they sell.
While it's far more economical to simply spend the $ on buying BTC instead that's effort. Bank -> dwolla -> mtgox requires getting off your duff. Mining BTC to buy Namecoin is far less effort, yet people didn't bother even for 40-50% more namecoins a day. In fact, the last few weeks mining namecoins was below power price even for the 4.6 cents/kwhr people like me.
So I yes, I think we could see well below production price as the market price. And we'll be able to sustain it for months.
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iamzill
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September 16, 2011, 06:01:48 AM |
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Based on namecoin observations. Many people are happy to mine for *MONTHS* at a 40-50% loss because they believe in upside potential. They can't make the mental connection between being long and producing being two completely unrelated activities, in their mind mining is not at a loss until they sell.
While it's far more economical to simply spend the $ on buying BTC instead that's effort. Bank -> dwolla -> mtgox requires getting off your duff. Mining BTC to buy Namecoin is far less effort, yet people didn't bother even for 40-50% more namecoins a day. In fact, the last few weeks mining namecoins was below power price even for the 4.6 cents/kwhr people like me.
So I yes, I think we could see well below production price as the market price. And we'll be able to sustain it for months.
Or that a lot of people mine on "free" electricity.
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jwzguy
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September 16, 2011, 07:36:26 PM |
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Not one troll bet against BTC. What a surprise. Nothing but hot air.
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fivebells
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September 19, 2011, 04:40:27 PM |
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I did, with the $1 Zhoutong gave me. I got slaughtered. Slaughtered, I tell you.
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Nagle
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September 19, 2011, 04:57:52 PM |
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Many people are happy to mine for *MONTHS* at a 40-50% loss because they believe in upside potential. They can't make the mental connection between being long and producing being two completely unrelated activities, in their mind mining is not at a loss until they sell. Right. If you're mining and not selling, you're speculating. If you're mining at a loss, you're losing money. You would lose less if you spent the money you're spending mining buying on the open market. Think about it. As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise. Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.
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BCEmporium
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September 19, 2011, 05:16:28 PM |
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As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise. Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.
How can you make a 30 days av move chart with bitcoin?! You would end up with about 12 or 14 dots and they certainly don't show any $4 downhill/mo. 07/10 ~$0.03 08/10 ~$0.04 (...) 12/10 ~$0.7 01/11 ~$1 (...) 05/11 ~$3 06/11 ~$20 (...) 09/11 ~$5 Despite June's bubble the general trend is up, there's no "steadily decline", but rather a post bubble readjustment.
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Nagle
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September 19, 2011, 06:43:53 PM |
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As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise. Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.
How can you make a 30 days av move chart with bitcoin?! Like this. Straight downhill since the bubble popped in early June. The brown line is a trailing moving average of the last 30 days. (Because it's a trailing moving average, it lags the actual data by 15 days.) Notice how all the "crashes" and "rallies" disappear and the steady downward trend becomes clear.
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ElectricMucus
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September 19, 2011, 07:00:25 PM |
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You are just another bear-troll aiming to buy btc cheap. But guess what: I won't happen, the current price is exactly at the lower trend-line and the recent rise in price correlates with my assumption that the recent low @4.18 was the end of this correction. I probably should now put up the log chart to debunk your claim but that will only attract more haters ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
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Nagle
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September 19, 2011, 07:22:27 PM |
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You are just another bear-troll aiming to buy btc cheap. But guess what: I won't happen, the current price is exactly at the lower trend-line and the recent rise in price correlates with my assumption that the recent low @4.18 was the end of this correction. I probably should now put up the log chart to debunk your claim but that will only attract more haters ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) Oh, that log chart. The one from August 12, where the price was around $12, where the poster above wrote "That would be acceptable." The "lower trend line" then showed a doubling every 2 months or so. Not happening.
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BCEmporium
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September 19, 2011, 07:36:05 PM |
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As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise. Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.
How can you make a 30 days av move chart with bitcoin?! Like this. Straight downhill since the bubble popped in early June. The brown line is a trailing moving average of the last 30 days. (Because it's a trailing moving average, it lags the actual data by 15 days.) Notice how all the "crashes" and "rallies" disappear and the steady downward trend becomes clear. I wasn't talking about "how to do it", but "where's enough data" to show a trend? 6 mo is nothing for a 30d av graph, to not mention you even have a bubble mid-way. To get data enough for a 30d av, for it to mean anything, you would need to be able to go back at least 24/32 months, this means before bitcoin even existed.
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ElectricMucus
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September 19, 2011, 07:37:15 PM |
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You are just another bear-troll aiming to buy btc cheap. But guess what: I won't happen, the current price is exactly at the lower trend-line and the recent rise in price correlates with my assumption that the recent low @4.18 was the end of this correction. I probably should now put up the log chart to debunk your claim but that will only attract more haters ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) Oh, that log chart. The one from August 12, where the price was around $12, where the poster above wrote "That would be acceptable." The "lower trend line" then showed a doubling every 2 months or so. Not happening. If you read the above post I made explaining where to draw the trendline. This chart does something different and forces the lower trendline to be in a channel parallel to the upper one. I also said that the graph could be faulty, especially in determining the lower limit. And guess what it is. If you do the thing I stated in the post there is a 100% correlation.
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bitcoinTrader
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September 20, 2011, 02:14:11 PM |
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Did this guy lose the bet yet ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Where are all the bears ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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ArsenShnurkov
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September 20, 2011, 02:18:15 PM |
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Where are all the bears ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) 6.8 was the wall. It is the time to rally down to $2.
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BCEmporium
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September 20, 2011, 02:19:17 PM |
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Where are all the bears ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) 6.8 was the wall. It is the time to rally down to $2. Rally down?! And crash up? ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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ElectricMucus
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September 20, 2011, 03:59:25 PM |
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actually volume hasn't spiked yet and until it does this rally will continue if you like it or not ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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BadBear
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September 20, 2011, 04:20:53 PM |
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actually volume hasn't spiked yet and until it does this rally will continue if you like it or not ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Already back down to 6 dollars (rally ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) ), but logs charts support my conclusion and furthermore
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ElectricMucus
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September 20, 2011, 04:34:40 PM |
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oh a bear! lawl actually volume hasn't spiked yet and until it does this rally will continue if you like it or not ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Already back down to 6 dollars (rally ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) ), but logs charts support my conclusion and furthermore That is totally within the normal range, you can't make conclusion based on the 1 hour swing for a 3 day old rally, or crash for that matter. Yeah it swings alot, people with bots are probably making a killing from it but that is to be expected.
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ElectricMucus
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September 20, 2011, 04:38:43 PM |
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It is not within the expected range... Today.
Can you elaborate on that?
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