Crash to $2 imminent. Willing to bet.

[grod]

Will it finally crash to $2?

My estimate is $1.25 is as low as it can go at current difficulty.   Of course, if difficulty drops to 200k and we're looking at hour long confirms for 2 months we'll be thinking of $2 as the "new $20."

[druid]

your estimate is less than half of electricity production price? Elaborate please

[grod]

Based on namecoin observations.   Many people are happy to mine for *MONTHS* at a 40-50% loss because they believe in upside potential.  They can't make the mental connection between being long and producing being two completely unrelated activities, in their mind mining is not at a loss until they sell.

While it's far more economical to simply spend the $ on buying BTC instead that's effort.  Bank -> dwolla -> mtgox requires getting off your duff.  Mining BTC to buy Namecoin is far less effort, yet people didn't bother even for 40-50% more namecoins a day.  In fact, the last few weeks mining namecoins was below power price even for the 4.6 cents/kwhr people like me.

So I yes, I think we could see well below production price as the market price.  And we'll be able to sustain it for months.

[iamzill]

Based on namecoin observations.   Many people are happy to mine for *MONTHS* at a 40-50% loss because they believe in upside potential.  They can't make the mental connection between being long and producing being two completely unrelated activities, in their mind mining is not at a loss until they sell.

While it's far more economical to simply spend the $ on buying BTC instead that's effort.  Bank -> dwolla -> mtgox requires getting off your duff.  Mining BTC to buy Namecoin is far less effort, yet people didn't bother even for 40-50% more namecoins a day.  In fact, the last few weeks mining namecoins was below power price even for the 4.6 cents/kwhr people like me.

So I yes, I think we could see well below production price as the market price.  And we'll be able to sustain it for months.

Or that a lot of people mine on "free" electricity.

[jwzguy]

Not one troll bet against BTC. What a surprise. Nothing but hot air.

[fivebells]

I did, with the $1 Zhoutong gave me.  I got slaughtered.  Slaughtered, I tell you.

[Nagle]

Many people are happy to mine for *MONTHS* at a 40-50% loss because they believe in upside potential.  They can't make the mental connection between being long and producing being two completely unrelated activities, in their mind mining is not at a loss until they sell.

Right. If you're mining and not selling, you're speculating. If you're mining at a loss, you're losing money. You would lose less if you spent the money you're spending mining buying on the open market. Think about it.

As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise.  Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.

[BCEmporium]

As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise.  Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.

How can you make a 30 days av move chart with bitcoin?! You would end up with about 12 or 14 dots and they certainly don't show any $4 downhill/mo.

07/10  ~$0.03
08/10 ~$0.04
(...)
12/10 ~$0.7
01/11 ~$1
(...)
05/11 ~$3
06/11 ~$20
(...)
09/11 ~$5

Despite June's bubble the general trend is up, there's no "steadily decline", but rather a post bubble readjustment.

[Nagle]

As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise.  Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.

How can you make a 30 days av move chart with bitcoin?!

Like this. Straight downhill since the bubble popped in early June.

The brown line is a trailing moving average of the last 30 days. (Because it's a trailing moving average, it lags the actual data by 15 days.) Notice how all the "crashes" and "rallies" disappear and the steady downward trend becomes clear.

[ElectricMucus]

You are just another bear-troll aiming to buy btc cheap. But guess what: I won't happen, the current price is exactly at the lower trend-line and the recent rise in price correlates with my assumption that the recent low @4.18 was the end of this correction.

I probably should now put up the log chart to debunk your claim but that will only attract more haters 

[Nagle]

You are just another bear-troll aiming to buy btc cheap. But guess what: I won't happen, the current price is exactly at the lower trend-line and the recent rise in price correlates with my assumption that the recent low @4.18 was the end of this correction.

I probably should now put up the log chart to debunk your claim but that will only attract more haters 

Oh, that log chart. The one from August 12, where the price was around $12, where the poster above wrote "That would be acceptable." The "lower trend line" then showed a doubling every 2 months or so. Not happening.

[BCEmporium]

As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise.  Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.

How can you make a 30 days av move chart with bitcoin?!

Like this. Straight downhill since the bubble popped in early June.

The brown line is a trailing moving average of the last 30 days. (Because it's a trailing moving average, it lags the actual data by 15 days.) Notice how all the "crashes" and "rallies" disappear and the steady downward trend becomes clear.

I wasn't talking about "how to do it", but "where's enough data" to show a trend? 6 mo is nothing for a 30d av graph, to not mention you even have a bubble mid-way.
To get data enough for a 30d av, for it to mean anything, you would need to be able to go back at least 24/32 months, this means before bitcoin even existed.

[ElectricMucus]

You are just another bear-troll aiming to buy btc cheap. But guess what: I won't happen, the current price is exactly at the lower trend-line and the recent rise in price correlates with my assumption that the recent low @4.18 was the end of this correction.

I probably should now put up the log chart to debunk your claim but that will only attract more haters  

Oh, that log chart. The one from August 12, where the price was around $12, where the poster above wrote "That would be acceptable." The "lower trend line" then showed a doubling every 2 months or so. Not happening.

If you read the above post I made explaining where to draw the trendline. This chart does something different and forces the lower trendline to be in a channel parallel to the upper one. I also said that the graph could be faulty, especially in determining the lower limit. And guess what it is.

If you do the thing I stated in the post there is a 100% correlation.

[bitcoinTrader]

Did this guy lose the bet yet
Where are all the bears 

[ArsenShnurkov]

Where are all the bears 

6.8 was the wall.
It is the time to rally down to $2.

[BCEmporium]

Where are all the bears 

6.8 was the wall.
It is the time to rally down to $2.

Rally down?!
And crash up? 

[ElectricMucus]

actually volume hasn't spiked yet and until it does this rally will continue if you like it or not 

[BadBear]

actually volume hasn't spiked yet and until it does this rally will continue if you like it or not 

Already back down to 6 dollars (rally  ), but logs charts support my conclusion and furthermore

[ElectricMucus]

oh a bear! lawl

actually volume hasn't spiked yet and until it does this rally will continue if you like it or not 

Already back down to 6 dollars (rally  ), but logs charts support my conclusion and furthermore

That is totally within the normal range, you can't make conclusion based on the 1 hour swing for a 3 day old rally, or crash for that matter.
Yeah it swings alot, people with bots are probably making a killing from it but that is to be expected.

[ElectricMucus]

It is not within the expected range... Today.

Can you elaborate on that?