Crash to $2 imminent. Willing to bet.

[fivebells]

Remember, it's just speculation.  I have zero evidence that this is going on.  I'm putting it out there as much to see whether it stands up to scrutiny as anything else.

[Minsc]

Crash to $2-3-4 is a myth.    

It will crash there only after first getting stuck in the $6s or higher, tricking bearish investors thinking it will never go down again and $6 is the new low.  Only after getting all their money will it finally jump down to a new low.

Oh and at the start of October it will likely go down as it does normally at the start of a month.

[zby]

I bet on $100 that bitcoin will crash to $2. I am certain because everytime it crashed, it first went up 1-1.5 dollars. Today happened the same, from 4.7 to 6 or more.

Nice way of hedging.

[worldinacoin]

If it goes to parity, I would use all my spare cash to exchange everything into bitcoins.

[fivebells]

Interesting, wisdomtool.  That is about where I would be comfortable getting in, too.  But it's just based on a gut feeling.  What is your reasoning?

[worldinacoin]

It takes quite a bit of electricity and equipment investment to generate 1 Bitcoin, the costs should already exceed USD1.  Bitcoin has developed quite well, though still on an extremely small scale, but at parity, I would feel the upside potential outweigh the risks quite a lot to warrant a gamble.

[fivebells]

Yes, it's not going to go down to $1 without quite a few miners throwing in the towel...

[Nagle]

It takes quite a bit of electricity and equipment investment to generate 1 Bitcoin, the costs should already exceed USD1.  Bitcoin has developed quite well, though still on an extremely small scale, but at parity, I would feel the upside potential outweigh the risks quite a lot to warrant a gamble.

Just because the manufacturing cost exceeds some value doesn't mean it has that value to a buyer.

[Cluster2k]

Yes, it's not going to go down to $1 without quite a few miners throwing in the towel...

Quite a few countries are already priced out of mining.  This forum tends to have a North American centric opinion of mining costs and many people think everyone gets power at 10c/kWh or less.

With the current price and no affordable FPGA solution available (ROI 1+ years right now) I don't see more miners entering the fray.  The difficulty setting has been falling steadily.  If bitcoin stumbles to $4 and lower and stays there then even more people will wonder whether it's worth mining.  Difficulty decreases again, and so on.  Just because mining costs more than $1 now and forms a support floor beneath bitcoin's current price doesn't mean the same will apply in 6 months time.

And remember, a speculator doesn't care what you paid to mine that bitcoin: they are just there to extract profit.

[d.james]

for me i'm getting more coins everyday so that justifies the price drop a little.

[grod]

for me i'm getting more coins everyday so that justifies the price drop a little.

Truth.  People scoff at current bitcoin mining earnings, but for me it's still a 10% monthly (or 100% annual) ROI on the hardware I use to produce it.  Still insanely profitable.  If I was unemployed I'd be looking into expanding mining operations at current levels.

[worldinacoin]

Bitcoin prices broke $4, this is getting bearish, hopefully the crash to $2 won't be a reality

[Fiyasko]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=98

Owned, Not a single person is willing to bet that it would crash that low that fast

You lose.

[Gerken]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=98

Owned, Not a single person is willing to bet that it would crash that low that fast

You lose.

Or the more likely explanation is that most bitcoin x have ended up as scams so nobody wants to use them.  Kinda like mooncoin is suggested on the first page.   

[FormerlyAnonymous]

If this wager is denominated in BTC, it has a weird bull bias: if the bulls win, then BTCUSD did not crash (as hard) but if the bears win, it did.  It stands to reason that nobody wants the bet if the spread offers a standard expectation-based odds structure (I'm too lazy to check, apparently) -- outcomes where the bears win will correlate strongly with devaluation of the prize.


Then again, for all I know, this was accounted for.  Just thought it was kinda amusing.  What would be ideal for the bears is: get appropriate, expected-inflation-adjusted odds, and win.  Then right after the bet is won, be wrong, and get a huge correction (say, to BTCUSD=10).   

[Edward50]

HE was right, he won the bet.

[P4man]

I hope price drops to $1 or below. The resulting difficulty will make solo mining feasible again. Then its only a matter of waiting for bitcoin to gain more widespread acceptance as a payment method. That may or may not happen, but it was never dependent up on its exchange rate. Anyone thinking a $2 or $1 is somehow problematic dont understand the first thing about bitcoin.

[Edward50]

I hope price drops to $1 or below. The resulting difficulty will make solo mining feasible again. Then its only a matter of waiting for bitcoin to gain more widespread acceptance as a payment method. That may or may not happen, but it was never dependent up on its exchange rate. Anyone thinking a $2 or $1 is somehow problematic dont understand the first thing about bitcoin.

actually $1.00 will be much better for using bitcoin as it was intended. Nobody wants to trade a coin that is worth $15 bucks. People will be more likely to spend a coin that is worth $1.00.

It will also be better that the price just stays low, forever. This way you don't get people hoarding and not using bitcoins to get them more accepted.

[RandyFolds]

I hope price drops to $1 or below. The resulting difficulty will make solo mining feasible again. Then its only a matter of waiting for bitcoin to gain more widespread acceptance as a payment method. That may or may not happen, but it was never dependent up on its exchange rate. Anyone thinking a $2 or $1 is somehow problematic dont understand the first thing about bitcoin.

actually $1.00 will be much better for using bitcoin as it was intended. Nobody wants to trade a coin that is worth $15 bucks. People will be more likely to spend a coin that is worth $1.00.

By that logic, no one spends $20 bills?

[Cluster2k]

I hope price drops to $1 or below. The resulting difficulty will make solo mining feasible again.

i agree, but there would be a long delay before we'd see such a difficulty... i wonder if it will go under a million soon.

If difficulty doesn't suffer another hefty drop in the next two weeks, miners are irrational.  The bottom appears to be falling out of the market and it doesn't make sense to keep mining at a hefty loss.