Risk in buying top-dollar ($9K) ASIC?

[lionheart2243]

New miner here,
I just started yesterday and am mining with my 7950 as we speak, but with all the monster machines out there now it doesn't seem to be grabbing much of a bank.

I found this handy graph a few hours ago... https://docs.google.com/a/student.mccc.edu/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlhSF602y9DSdHRneWVZcjJLWmhjaVBMTHVCR3l4eHc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

So according to the graph, one of the best ASICs for mining is the Alpha Technologies one that goes for almost $9,000. According to the graph, at current rates, it would pay for itself in a mere 2 months. If that does happen, then you're making almost $4500 a month in pure profit.

So what's to stop me from taking out a $10,000 loan, getting the ASIC, and riding off into the sunset? I know the bitcoin market is incredibly volatile, but I don't have a full understanding of how "difficulties" work, though I think I see that the difficulties go up every so often to adapt to the faster machines. Does the difficulty go up often enough to completely kill the profitability of buying one of these $9000 monster machines?

A $10,000 loan would really hit me hard if I couldn't pay it off purely through bitcoins. I live with my dad who makes ~$60,000/year (none of which he can spare) while I go to school and make maybe $7000 part-time. The laws of investment say not to wager what you can't afford to lose, such is the case with me.

So what are the risks involved here? Anyone have any advice?

[chesthing]

I'm in your situation I stick with my 7950. Definitely.

[krampus]

The two biggest risks to what you propose are as follows (and this applies not to any particular company):

a) The company is a scam, and is merely taking money. Do you have confidence in this company? Do they have a track record? Are other customers happy with their products?
b) The company can't actually deliver what they are selling immediately. This is common. Are you confident that the company has product in stock and ready to deliver? If not, then when? What's the likely difficulty increase during that time? Will you ROI, given that difficulty increase?

Again, this is not directed at any one company, and I have no idea if this particular company is trustworthy or not. But these are the standard risk factors when purchasing hardware.

[railzand]

No way this is far too risky for someone in your position. Suggest you read a lot more before jumping in like that. Buy little bits of btc as and when you can. Dream up a business where you take btc for goods/services...

[FreedomCoin]

No way this is far too risky for someone in your position. Suggest you read a lot more before jumping in like that. Buy little bits of btc as and when you can. Dream up a business where you take btc for goods/services...

+1 a much more safe plan.

[lionheart2243]

***Side Note: My apologies to the moderators. I haven't used a forum in years and forgot to put this in the right subcategory.

Anyway, just after posting this I took a look at this topic... "For Individuals looking to get into the Mining Game in 2014, please read this!" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=398290.0

That pretty much quelled my get rich quick scheme. I knew I had to be missing something for it to seem so easy. I feel like the moral of the story is that big businesses will be taking over the bitcoin market with massive datacenters of top-notch miners, making non-professional miners obsolete along with their hardware investments.

And yeah, Railzand, I wasn't planning on running out to my credit union in the next week donning business suit, monocle, and whatnot on a whim . I'm doing my research before I make any kind of moves, and by the sound of things the best moves I can make are either to invest in the coins themselves or stick with my gaming PC and mine altcoins.

On that note (and this is especially directed towards chesthing) what coins should I be going after using my 7950?

[railzand]

I'm sure you weren't. hey I point my 7970 at hashco.ws, as I'm lazy about altcoins. wish you luck

[joae1975]

You're better off just buying the bitcoin or litecoin.  Too many people mining.  Difficulty skyrocketing too fast.

[machinationus]

Willing to wait 3 months for it?
If you could get one in a week or 10 days why not?
But seems they are in the "making it" stage.

600 watts is: 0.600kw x 24 hours = 14.4 Kilo Watt Hours x .15 cents = $2.16 per day (They show 2.80)
But it more likely more than that as the power supply will take some also, unless its a +80.
Any idea how much you are paying per KWH?

I got one older gen 1 Avalon 110 and when I did the calculator it show a good return, but in 2 weeks shows a loss,
I got it Jan 02, it the waiting part and market that changes everything.

But look at all you "other" loss's like that auto you may drive or the computer your using the all will be a net loss.

the 7870 looks ok as you could use it for something.

The Vipers are "coming soon" it's like tomorrow is also coming soon!
 
 

[lionheart2243]

I'm sure you weren't. hey I point my 7970 at [Suspicious link removed], as I'm lazy about altcoins. wish you luck

Thanks for the advise about hashco, it's just what I was looking for! I was using middlecoin but I didn't like how I was forced to convert to BTC. Hashco also looks like an actual website as opposed to a notepad document  . I'll give hashco a try overnight and see how I do.

However, I currently only have a BTC wallet and if I want to start banking altcoins I will need other wallets. Is there any programs out there that propagate all of your various alt/bitcoin wallets into one program or do I need to get one program for every altcoin I want to bank?

Also, to machinationus, I actually don't pay my electricity bill. I live in an affordable living complex and electricity is paid for. I suppose I could potentially increase the rent for the whole complex if my GPU juiced it that bad, but electricity is definitely not a concern for me (lucky, I know ) and my PSU is 80+ Bronze for what it's worth.

[railzand]

I'm sure you weren't. hey I point my 7970 at [Suspicious link removed], as I'm lazy about altcoins. wish you luck

Thanks for the advise about hashco, it's just what I was looking for! I was using middlecoin but I didn't like how I was forced to convert to BTC. Hashco also looks like an actual website as opposed to a notepad document  . I'll give hashco a try overnight and see how I do.

However, I currently only have a BTC wallet and if I want to start banking altcoins I will need other wallets. Is there any programs out there that propagate all of your various alt/bitcoin wallets into one program or do I need to get one program for every altcoin I want to bank?

Also, to machinationus, I actually don't pay my electricity bill. I live in an affordable living complex and electricity is paid for. I suppose I could potentially increase the rent for the whole complex if my GPU juiced it that bad, but electricity is definitely not a concern for me (lucky, I know ) and my PSU is 80+ Bronze for what it's worth.

give hashcows longer than that to compare fully.
don't think there's a good multi-alt wallet yet.
you're wise enough to run every alt wallet in a virtual machine/sandbox...

[Sonny]

I'm sure you weren't. hey I point my 7970 at [Suspicious link removed], as I'm lazy about altcoins. wish you luck

Thanks for the advise about hashco, it's just what I was looking for! I was using middlecoin but I didn't like how I was forced to convert to BTC. Hashco also looks like an actual website as opposed to a notepad document  . I'll give hashco a try overnight and see how I do.

However, I currently only have a BTC wallet and if I want to start banking altcoins I will need other wallets. Is there any programs out there that propagate all of your various alt/bitcoin wallets into one program or do I need to get one program for every altcoin I want to bank?

Also, to machinationus, I actually don't pay my electricity bill. I live in an affordable living complex and electricity is paid for. I suppose I could potentially increase the rent for the whole complex if my GPU juiced it that bad, but electricity is definitely not a concern for me (lucky, I know ) and my PSU is 80+ Bronze for what it's worth.

you're wise enough to run every alt wallet in a virtual machine/sandbox...

It will be a pain to do so.

[machinationus]

I'm sure you weren't. hey I point my 7970 at [Suspicious link removed], as I'm lazy about altcoins. wish you luck

Thanks for the advise about hashco, it's just what I was looking for! I was using middlecoin but I didn't like how I was forced to convert to BTC. Hashco also looks like an actual website as opposed to a notepad document  . I'll give hashco a try overnight and see how I do.

However, I currently only have a BTC wallet and if I want to start banking altcoins I will need other wallets. Is there any programs out there that propagate all of your various alt/bitcoin wallets into one program or do I need to get one program for every altcoin I want to bank?

Also, to machinationus, I actually don't pay my electricity bill. I live in an affordable living complex and electricity is paid for. I suppose I could potentially increase the rent for the whole complex if my GPU juiced it that bad, but electricity is definitely not a concern for me (lucky, I know ) and my PSU is 80+ Bronze for what it's worth.

I would Not do it, they look like a typical scam, and it may draw more power than your 15 amp breaker, and
it would never ROI, you will be better off buying Bulk toilet paper IMO.  BitCoin will not exist in 2015 as the power cost will exceed returns at present pricing. Even if you got free power not many people do, and the transaction time will be many hours. As all the power paying miners will be unpluging later this year.