Is MtGox dying?

[Sonny]

There is no arbitrage opportunity without (near) real time movement of funds.

If you have a lot of money just sitting around it's perfectly doable even with the wait time.

Nonsense. Complete nonsense.

If there is an arbitrage opportunity, people will take it, and the two prices will converge.
What we are seeing now is, the price difference just becomes larger and larger.

[Nagle]

Yes, Mt. Gox is dying.  The spread between Mt. Gox and other exchanges just passed 26%. That's huge. 

Live chart of Mt. Gox spread.

With USD withdrawals stalled, and EUR , JPY, and BTC withdrawals now subject to long delays, nobody (except a few insiders) can get funds out of Mt. Gox. We're seeing the beginning of a panic.

Prices today:
mtgoxUSD    $970
bitstampUSD    $786 
btceUSD          $774

[best_btc]

i really hope mtgox is working onto become a ripple gateway. that would solve all their problem.

[makoto1337]

I'll try to get some money out in JPY and see how it goes.

[empoweoqwj]

i really hope mtgox is working onto become a ripple gateway. that would solve all their problem.

Mtgox is not working on anything. That's the problem. The rats have left the ship ... so to speak.

[louisreel]

i really hope mtgox is working onto become a ripple gateway. that would solve all their problem.

Well I suppose, you could withdraw btc from mtgox to Ripple and exchange for XRP, assuming people want to buy mtgox backed BTC, then exchange the XRP for bitstamp USD or some other gateway that can actually process USD withdrawals.

[Caiapfas]

I just got approved after waiting for 5 months for my mtgox account, but why would I want it now.... For the verification documents I literally submitted pictures of hot girls i found on the net. NO SHIT

[mp420]

Gox is not "out of money". They've almost even, actually, with reasonable assumptions about their losses. Even if they're $5 million under water (debatable), there's more than $30 million on the orderbook. Lack of fiat is definitely not the reason they're unable to process withdrawals.

[empoweoqwj]

i really hope mtgox is working onto become a ripple gateway. that would solve all their problem.

Well I suppose, you could withdraw btc from mtgox to Ripple and exchange for XRP, assuming people want to buy mtgox backed BTC, then exchange the XRP for bitstamp USD or some other gateway that can actually process USD withdrawals.

Still people dreaming that arbing between gox and bitstamp is possible. I love it

[Nagle]

Gox is not "out of money". They've almost even, actually, with reasonable assumptions about their losses. Even if they're $5 million under water (debatable), there's more than $30 million on the orderbook. Lack of fiat is definitely not the reason they're unable to process withdrawals.

That's assuming they haven't been taking money out of the business.

[empoweoqwj]

Gox is not "out of money". They've almost even, actually, with reasonable assumptions about their losses. Even if they're $5 million under water (debatable), there's more than $30 million on the orderbook. Lack of fiat is definitely not the reason they're unable to process withdrawals.

That's assuming they haven't been taking money out of the business.

He keeps going on about the "orderbook" as though that is some kind of proof Gox is all well and good. Anyone can fake orderbooks, fake trading. its simple. Look at the real facts, the ones that are provable i.e. withdrawals getting slower and slower in all currencies, and you get a true picture of Gox. Not that "they've got a large orderbook" nonsense.

[severance26]

Rofl makoto, i dont know whose ass you pulled that out of

an hour? HAHA

The latest for me was 8 business days. And I was doing it 'the fast way'.

「まことに」意味わからん。

[BitBits]

I also somehow do not believe that trading data reported by MtGox is real at all. Looks "robotic" quite often.

[JCviggen]

Gox is not "out of money". They've almost even, actually, with reasonable assumptions about their losses. Even if they're $5 million under water (debatable), there's more than $30 million on the orderbook. Lack of fiat is definitely not the reason they're unable to process withdrawals.

And on Full Tilt Poker everybody had $$$ in their accounts. Until they tried to cash out.

There is real money and there is monopoly money. The money you see in MtGox accounts is monopoly money which may or may not be backed by real funds in real bank accounts. There is ample reason to believe Gox does NOT have all the money on their exchange covered.

If Arbitraging Mt.Gox worked, they would NOT be 200$ ahead of everyone else. Arbitration would close that gap in a heartbeat if you could actually get your fiat back out in a somewhat timely manner. For 20-25% people would not mind waiting even a month. The fact that the gap is still widening must mean cash outflow has slowed to a trickle if not dried up entirely. It's market forces, plain and simple, and they cannot be fooled.

[eldentyrell]

Why doesn't Gox use some of its bitcoin profits and trade for fiat off their own exchange?

because.

[empoweoqwj]

Gox is not "out of money". They've almost even, actually, with reasonable assumptions about their losses. Even if they're $5 million under water (debatable), there's more than $30 million on the orderbook. Lack of fiat is definitely not the reason they're unable to process withdrawals.

And on Full Tilt Poker everybody had $$$ in their accounts. Until they tried to cash out.

There is real money and there is monopoly money. The money you see in MtGox accounts is monopoly money which may or may not be backed by real funds in real bank accounts. There is ample reason to believe Gox does NOT have all the money on their exchange covered.

If Arbitraging Mt.Gox worked, they would NOT be 200$ ahead of everyone else. Arbitration would close that gap in a heartbeat if you could actually get your fiat back out in a somewhat timely manner. For 20-25% people would not mind waiting even a month. The fact that the gap is still widening must mean cash outflow has slowed to a trickle if not dried up entirely. It's market forces, plain and simple, and they cannot be fooled.

You keep saying it. I keep saying it. Lots of other people keep saying it. But then some idiot keeps turning up (thrice daily) saying "there's a real opportunity to arb between gox and bitstamp". Laugh or cry are the only options I can see 

[dave111223]

And what happens if bitstamps bank puts limits on the money it can transfer as well? are you going to then hope it dies next? There is a lot of dumbassery with bitcoin I swear.

+1

Nothing to suggest that BTC-e or Bitstamp shouldn't start to encounter similar problems now that they've surpassed Gox's trading volume. Let's just say that they've not got MSB licences in all 50 US states either.

I'm assuming BTC-e and Bitstamp are not stupid enough to setup a web hosting company based out of the US and the funnel millions of dollars in funds through said web hosting company.  And assuming they have not done something like this; why would they need to be a MSB in the US, where they do not operate; if people in the US choose to send international wire transfers to company in another country that doesn't magically make it a US company?

Gox used to be good back in 2012; quick trades, quick withdrawals, good API....but then:
- Gox "Lag"
- Gox withdrawal "delays"
- Gox verification "delays" and "re-verifications" right when you want to withdraw
- Gox seized funds for USA silliness
- Gox Coinlab bullshit
- Gox litecoin pump and dump attempts
- Missing/delayed BTC transactions
...I prolly missed some stuff

Yes if Bitstamp did all these things over the course of a year I'd probably want them to die too.

[mike81]

Just look at the volume difference at: http://markets.blockchain.info/markets/mtgox/USD
My conclusion would be that no one looking to cash out their BTC is using Gox anymore. I can't for the life of me figure out why anyone would buy at that price. So that leaves day traders and they don't really care about the spread, they are just interested in price difference on Gox itself. But with the ever decreasing volume that won't be profitable for long.

I don't think arbitrage works unless you are using EUR. But the volume in EUR trades on Gox is even worse and you would need nerves of steal waiting for your withdrawal to be processed.

It's a sinking ship at the moment but i hope they solve their issues. If they go down so will the BTC price. And i don't think it will bounce back for a while if we can't trust an exchange.

[Frankie]

Why doesn't Gox use some of its bitcoin profits and trade for fiat off their own exchange?

because.

Why would gox have to wire anything? For all of the Gox Bux they trade off their own exchange, they will owe less to account holders. It's the most straightforward way to liquidate their BTC profits.

[Frankie]

Yes, Mt. Gox is dying.  The spread between Mt. Gox and other exchanges just passed 26%. That's huge. 

Live chart of Mt. Gox spread.

With USD withdrawals stalled, and EUR , JPY, and BTC withdrawals now subject to long delays, nobody (except a few insiders) can get funds out of Mt. Gox. We're seeing the beginning of a panic.

Prices today:
mtgoxUSD    $970
bitstampUSD    $786 
btceUSD          $774

And now it's passed 16-19% going in the other direction. The gap has gone down markedly in the last few minutes. Panic over? JPY arbitrage back online?

mtgoxUSD    $929 (-51)
bitstampUSD    $789 (+3) 
btceUSD          $773 (-1)