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Author Topic: Chart analysis: 4 month chance for rally ahead !!  (Read 4828 times)
netrin
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September 15, 2011, 03:37:28 PM
 #41

We all know that it cannot drop below 0, the trend has to stop somewhere - but why at 5 and not at 2 for example?

I hope you don't mean in the next 24 hours. Sure anything can happen within the month, and perhaps the week, but we've never seen more than 50% drops in any single day this year. Since June 8th we've average less than 2% decline each day. A drop to $2 from $5 within a month would be quite extraordinary. Aside from negative momentum, I think most indicators, fundamental and technical, say up.

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September 15, 2011, 03:47:47 PM
 #42

My thoughts are that the downslide has taken much longer than the take off. This is a good sign because rising stocks always rise faster than they fall.

Always? No, pullbacks in stocks often happen much more quickly than upward moves. I'd like to think that the slow fall in BTC prices is a good thing, but I'm skeptical. A slow fall is indicative of relatively calm and orderly selling, and this isn't a good thing for longs. We had some panic selling on the recent move to $4.18, and a nice bounce from there, but now it's starting to look like we might test that low in the near future. It's too early to tell, but I'm starting to think we haven't seen a long term bottom yet.  
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September 15, 2011, 03:59:38 PM
 #43

In my own case, I failed to sell long after the $32 high because I loved the asset. It took me a long time to get over infidelity and ride the waves. Most people are not in it for the appreciation, which is good, and reflected in fast highs and slow price declines.

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September 16, 2011, 06:12:04 AM
 #44

you simply have to look at what's going on in the real Bitcoin-world and stop looking at charts.
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September 16, 2011, 06:57:52 AM
 #45

Some people fare well not using charts, and some fare well using charts. Both options are very valid.
We have been using charts successfully for bitcoin since September 2010, just like any other financial market (for more than a decade).

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September 16, 2011, 08:42:25 AM
 #46

Some people fare well not using charts, and some fare well using charts. Both options are very valid.
We have been using charts successfully for bitcoin since September 2010, just like any other financial market (for more than a decade).


Just out of interest, your profile pic depicts the $30 bitcoin bubble earlier this year.  Any chance of upgrading it to show the subsequent price activity?  Wink

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September 16, 2011, 11:38:48 AM
 #47

Some people fare well not using charts, and some fare well using charts. Both options are very valid.
We have been using charts successfully for bitcoin since September 2010, just like any other financial market (for more than a decade).


Just out of interest, your profile pic depicts the $30 bitcoin bubble earlier this year.  Any chance of upgrading it to show the subsequent price activity?  Wink

Your guess is wrong. The chart is from mid February 2011 when prices traded at the high at 1.1 $  Wink

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critmass
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September 16, 2011, 03:12:29 PM
 #48

Some people fare well not using charts, and some fare well using charts. Both options are very valid.
We have been using charts successfully for bitcoin since September 2010, just like any other financial market (for more than a decade).


Just out of interest, your profile pic depicts the $30 bitcoin bubble earlier this year.  Any chance of upgrading it to show the subsequent price activity?  Wink

Your guess is wrong. The chart is from mid February 2011 when prices traded at the high at 1.1 $  Wink
Nice.

+1 for you!  ^_^
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September 16, 2011, 10:59:05 PM
 #49



Hi B-Boys and B-Girls!

The "extra heavy" support around 6.00 $ seems to be broken as we head further down along the upper resistance. Looking back the upper resistance remained stronger, although the support came up a way much longer that didnt mean it was the stronger one, once again the more often confirmed trend line got the upper hand. As we head down buy-pressure will build up, but no real resistance is in sight so far, except maybe by the one netrin spotted around 4.50$, thanks for that! Cheesy



On average the determining resistance that quelled all daily closing prices of the last 4 month lowered 0.24$ each day, putting the break point for today, the 16th of Sept. 2011 at 5.60$.
For the following days (closing prices) it will be around the following:
17.09.11: ~5.36$
18.09.11: ~5.12$
19.09.11: ~4.88$
20.09.11: ~4.64$
21.09.11: ~4.40$
22.09.11: ~4.16$
...

I cannot predict where or when it will break through, but am certain, that this line will be the hurdle to take before a new really can start. Better watch closely!
netrin
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September 17, 2011, 01:46:17 AM
 #50



M-Men and W-Women use log charts!

You're looking at a drop from $32 to $4 and I suppose you expect $0 by high tea?

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September 17, 2011, 03:18:01 PM
 #51

Id like to point out that my calculations dont refer to the closing prices of the mentioned days, but to the price levels the upper resistance is going to be on those days while it extends further. Those levels need to be broken in order to rally.
I furthermore dont belive a price drop to 0,- is plausible as buying-pressure builds up the lower she goes.

keep it up Money Boy!
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September 17, 2011, 03:36:34 PM
 #52

I furthermore dont belive a price drop to 0,- is plausible as buying-pressure builds up the lower she goes.

While this may be true, a much more obvious explanation is that declines are geometric, not arithmetic as you've too simply implied. A drop from $30 to $10 is just as dramatic as from $3 to $1.

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September 17, 2011, 03:51:38 PM
 #53

I furthermore dont belive a price drop to 0,- is plausible as buying-pressure builds up the lower she goes.

While this may be true, a much more obvious explanation is that declines are geometric, not arithmetic as you've too simply implied. A drop from $30 to $10 is just as dramatic as from $3 to $1.

shure thing  Cheesy

P.S.: Are u actually from Greenland?
- If yes: Whats the snow taste like atm (not the yellow one, well.. why not) and
- do you guys really have 20+ words for snow (always wondered)?
netrin
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September 17, 2011, 04:29:30 PM
 #54

Ah, a sensible departure from this thread. I am sitting overlooking gentle rainfall over the capital of Greenland while it snows above 700m. There is one word for snow 'aput', but like most Inuit languages, Greenlandic (Kalaallisut) is polysynthetic, which means we append a huge string of suffixes and modifications. I'm told Turkish and to a lesser extent Japanese do this, but nothing like the languages of the north. For example, 95% of all words in the Greenlandic bible are unique. There certainly are not dozens of words for shepherds and sheep in the arctic.

aput - snow
apivoq - it snows
aputsiaq - big snow
aputivut - our many snows
aputiga - my snow
aputaajaaneq - snow (in general, singular)
aqilluppoq - soft snow (as in Spring)
aperlaaq - newly fallen snow
apuserivoq - to play in snow
apusineq - snow drifts
apussarippoq - a thick layer of snow, there
appuppaa - snow covering (or like he is blocked by snow)
apusiutit - snow shoe

qanik - snowflake

aagussaq - a thing that appears after the snow has melted

Nanook - Big spirit of snow bear
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wi0e-kEWqBQ (0:59 - 1:05 he sings something about appreciating our great snow; lovely scenery and song, made for tourism)

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September 17, 2011, 05:57:17 PM
 #55

Ah, a sensible departure from this thread. I am sitting overlooking gentle rainfall over the capital of Greenland while it snows above 700m. There is one word for snow 'aput', but like most Inuit languages, Greenlandic (Kalaallisut) is polysynthetic, which means we append a huge string of suffixes and modifications. I'm told Turkish and to a lesser extent Japanese do this, but nothing like the languages of the north. For example, 95% of all words in the Greenlandic bible are unique. There certainly are not dozens of words for shepherds and sheep in the arctic.

Real agglutinative languages aren't very common any more.  It seems that many thousands of years ago, virtually everyone decided they wanted the vast majority of their adjectives as distinct words.  Arctic languages are pretty cool in that we can usually trace the main lines of their divergence from other known languages, but they've usually retained structures from way, way back; structures that were already seriously on the decline when the Sumerians invented writing.

The "X words for Y" meme makes frequent appearances on Language LogHere is a good one from way back.

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netrin
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September 17, 2011, 06:57:04 PM
 #56

Excellent. I think you've provided the best analysis to come out of this thread! Smiley

Yeah the word building is as cool as it is tedious. For example oqaasilerifik (words, many, kept, a place) is a dictionary or a collection of books, it's also the name of the language ministry, and when they wanted to make a database of words, they called it oqaaserpassualeriffik which is something like the new place that contains lots and lots of words.

It can be funny too. The second largest municipality in the world is named Sermersooq, which means something like the great big ice cap (magnificent mass of ice). The new municipal intranet is called Sermeeraq, the smaller mass of ice.

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September 17, 2011, 08:29:07 PM
 #57

There is one word for snow 'aput', but like most Inuit languages, Greenlandic (Kalaallisut) is polysynthetic, which means we append a huge string of suffixes and modifications.
I guess it depends a lot on the size of the population. In Norway there are hundreds of snow and ice related words, although a lot of them are only used by some dialects. There's a list of most of them here, but unfortunately most of them aren't translated into English: http://folk.ntnu.no/ivarse/snjoord.html
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September 19, 2011, 01:14:38 PM
 #58

Wow if I gave you a chart of last months wind speed could you predict the weather for next month using this technique?

 
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September 19, 2011, 02:26:59 PM
 #59

Wow if I gave you a chart of last months wind speed could you predict the weather for next month using this technique?

 

Technical analysis has been working for me, and I've only been aware of the concept for 4 months.
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September 19, 2011, 02:47:34 PM
 #60

Wow if I gave you a chart of last months wind speed could you predict the weather for next month using this technique?

 

One has to wonder if inadequate analogies could be sold and bought in a market of some sorts.

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