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Author Topic: Chart analysis: 4 month chance for rally ahead !!  (Read 4825 times)
Spekulatius
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September 11, 2011, 10:10:41 PM
 #1



On average the determining resistance that quelled all daily closing prices of the last 4 month lowered 0.24$ each day, putting the break point for today, the 16th of Sept. 2011 at 5.60$.

For the following days (closing prices) it will be around the following:
17.09.11: ~5.36$
18.09.11: ~5.12$
19.09.11: ~4.88$
20.09.11: ~4.64$
21.09.11: ~4.40$
22.09.11: ~4.16$
...

I cannot predict where or when it will break through, but am certain, that this line will be the hurdle to take before a new really can start. Better watch closely!

As for me: As soon as the rate breaks and holds for at least 2 days at least 10% above the line, Im all in!
What about you?

- knusper knusper knäuschen..
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NamelessOne
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September 11, 2011, 10:14:16 PM
 #2

Excellent, I've also been paying very close attention to 7 over the last 30 minutes or so.
Synaptic
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September 11, 2011, 10:17:54 PM
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You people leave me speechless...


...you really fucking do.
fcmatt
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September 11, 2011, 10:20:14 PM
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You people leave me speechless...


...you really fucking do.

i was trying to find some picture that basically said drawing lines on graphs is bad.
NamelessOne
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September 11, 2011, 10:32:23 PM
 #5

The technical analysis I've followed has worked pretty well for me. Not claiming it is the perfect.

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September 11, 2011, 10:34:48 PM
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You people leave me speechless...


...you really fucking do.

We only wish that was true.  You never shut up.
fcmatt
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September 11, 2011, 10:50:11 PM
 #7

I think the fact that bitcoins started out as worthless throws off every graph's usefulness when you include those
early days.

Try drawing the bottom graph when the price was .50 cents and many more people started getting involved.
It shows a whole different outcome.
Synaptic
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September 11, 2011, 10:59:36 PM
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I think the fact that bitcoins started out as worthless throws off every graph's usefulness when you include those
early days.

Try drawing the bottom graph when the price was .50 cents and many more people started getting involved.
It shows a whole different outcome.

Don't talk sense here!
Vandroiy
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September 12, 2011, 12:29:23 AM
 #9

i was trying to find some picture that basically said drawing lines on graphs is bad.

On logscale charts, mind you!

I think the image up there does the job nicely. How long can that line hold without things getting reeeeeally awkward? The USD could do some hyperinflation, that might help for a while, but counts as awkward IMO.
Spekulatius
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September 12, 2011, 12:30:02 AM
 #10



UPDATE: The new magic number is 6.00 ! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Dargo
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September 12, 2011, 03:47:32 AM
 #11

Interesting chart, though as has been pointed out, trendlines on a log scale are pretty non-traditional. But I'm not knocking it. You want to see good volume on the break above that trendline as a confirmation. Failed breakout/breakdown patterns often result in vicious moves the other way.

Edit: Just realized that upper trendline is on linear scale, only lower trendline is on log scale.
Spekulatius
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September 13, 2011, 06:18:16 PM
 #12

Update: Till 6.00$ to maintain today
istar
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September 13, 2011, 07:39:20 PM
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There are 7200 New coins each day.

The chart methods you use are probably not adapted to such high inflation. They are probably not made for inflation at all.








Bitcoins - Because we should not pay to use our money
mobodick
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September 13, 2011, 07:58:08 PM
 #14

What about you?

Me?
I think that in any 4-month period bitcoin will at least rally once and crash once (and propably multiple times), no matter how you whish to explain it to yourself.


critmass
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September 13, 2011, 08:02:04 PM
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If you can't explain why you decided to draw a line on a chart (ie the economic theory that supports it) you probably shouldn't post it, just saying.
Bigpiggy01
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September 14, 2011, 03:08:59 AM
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OP I'd be really grateful if you'd stick your charts on imgur as well atm imageshack just gives the frog in icecube error.  Grin

Dargo
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September 14, 2011, 03:16:12 AM
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If you can't explain why you decided to draw a line on a chart (ie the economic theory that supports it) you probably shouldn't post it, just saying.

Technical analysis is a way of analyzing trading action, which can and often does take on a life of its own that is largely independent of fundamentals (i.e. economic theory). To demand that a line on a chart be justified by economic theory or any other kind of fundamental analysis is to misunderstand the nature of the analysis being used. I know it seems like complete voodoo hocus pocus BS, but technical analysis really is a great tool for making trading decisions. But like any tool, you have to understand how to use it. I don't have good charts to look at, but so far it doesn't look to me like this trend line break is materializing, so I don't think there is yet any technical reason to think we are in for a sustained rally. But genuine trend line breaks are very solid technical patterns, and can, in the right hands, be used to great effect for trading - I've seen this particular pattern unfold for stocks hundreds of times.  
Minsc
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September 14, 2011, 05:06:12 AM
 #18

It won't even move more than 1% in value a day anymore.

1DcXvfJdeJch9uptKopte5XQarTtj5ZjpL
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September 14, 2011, 02:14:47 PM
 #19

If you can't explain why you decided to draw a line on a chart (ie the economic theory that supports it) you probably shouldn't post it, just saying.

Technical analysis is a way of analyzing trading action, which can and often does take on a life of its own that is largely independent of fundamentals (i.e. economic theory). To demand that a line on a chart be justified by economic theory or any other kind of fundamental analysis is to misunderstand the nature of the analysis being used. I know it seems like complete voodoo hocus pocus BS, but technical analysis really is a great tool for making trading decisions. But like any tool, you have to understand how to use it. I don't have good charts to look at, but so far it doesn't look to me like this trend line break is materializing, so I don't think there is yet any technical reason to think we are in for a sustained rally. But genuine trend line breaks are very solid technical patterns, and can, in the right hands, be used to great effect for trading - I've seen this particular pattern unfold for stocks hundreds of times.  

+1
Well said and so true.

>15years analysis experience

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grod
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September 14, 2011, 02:49:28 PM
 #20

Actually, there are very sound economic reasons for chart patterns being valid.  I read a book a long time ago that went into just that.  Fascinating stuff.

For example, let's say someone has a long position.  A stock hits a high, then drops down.  "Man, I should have sold.  If it ever gets that high, I'll definitely sell!"  Multiply by millions and you have a resistance level.

Now, let's say a popular stock has a dip.  "Man, I should have bought.  If it ever gets that low again, I'll definitely buy!"  Multiply by millions and there's your support.

Charting is just a way to identify lifecycles of trends and trader (but more importantly, investor) mindset.   Used properly it can let you be in a position when it is likely the position will continue yielding profits and out when it is less likely.  It's a timing tool.

That said, TA is mostly trailing indicators.  There are very few predictive tools in the box, and the don't signal every time.  When they do, it's highly likely you've got a good read on the market.
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