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Author Topic: Looks like we are in a repeat bounce from low, soon to make new lows.  (Read 1353 times)
Edward50
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September 12, 2011, 02:22:50 PM
 #1

Making this prediction based on the already many times bitcoins hit a low to bounce back higher, only to hit an even new low some short time into the future.
This must have happened like 10 to 20 times since we hit the 30 high. Since there is no shorting in the market, this process will probably keep repeating itself.

My recommendation would be if any of you are holding onto bitcoins to sell into this short term bounce. It already looks like it is losing steam and we should be pushing towards those new lows very shortly.

It also looks like the bid side of mt. gox is bloated once again. To me this means the usual price manipulator/bot, or what ever you want to call it, is bloating the bid side of mt. gox in an effort to make the price go higher. Every time he has done this he has always pulled out, exposing just how weak the bid side of mt gox is, while the price plummets into a new low. How he keeps doing this is beyond me because I keep seeing him losing lots of money and never being able to sell all those bitcoins he buys when his walls get sold into.

So if the past is any prediction of the future, and it already looks like this mini bounce/rally is losing steam,. I would be selling my bitcoins right now in a heartbeat. Once we go into the $5.00's, and people start to realize that we are probably heading down again, people will start unloading.

 








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ElectricMucus
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September 12, 2011, 03:25:51 PM
 #2

I disagree.

Somewhat. There almost certainly will be a correction from this mini-rally - but the time window to go below 4.18 is gone. (I say this because of the damping effect on the pace of the correction which would stretch that out to almost a week)

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September 12, 2011, 03:31:54 PM
 #3

You can short on Bitcoinica. I know because I have a negative BTC position. I don't know which way the market is going to go i'm just trying it out.

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September 12, 2011, 04:06:35 PM
 #4

It's not going to crash.  It's going to stagnate forever.  The worst thing for investors is stagnation.  If it crashed, it means we could pull out, buy in lower and make money.  But stagnation is the worst possible thing.

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September 12, 2011, 04:15:11 PM
 #5

The past 16 hours or so it has moved 0.10 BC back and forth, not percent.

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September 12, 2011, 04:46:34 PM
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No, after that, when it sat at 6.20 +/- 0.10 BC for well MtGox says about 900 minutes.

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September 12, 2011, 05:05:22 PM
 #7

No, after that, when it sat at 6.20 +/- 0.10 BC for well MtGox says about 900 minutes.

Gox in the last hour.

$6.24/$6.112=1.02

You are complaining about a one-hour spread of 2%?

Yes. I will complain of such a spread. I find it completely boring and I demand much more entertainment
value for my bitcoin.
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September 12, 2011, 05:47:36 PM
 #8

Actually, it looks like today everyone is trying to figure out what happened yesterday when Mt. Gox failed and produced huge price swings while fulfilling orders out of sequence.
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September 12, 2011, 06:20:46 PM
 #9

You can short on Bitcoinica. I know because I have a negative BTC position. I don't know which way the market is going to go i'm just trying it out.

+1

https://www.bitcoinica.com/home

Shorting with leaverage of 1:5 if you're so sure OP

looking forward to them having stops etc soon hopefully - neat site

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September 12, 2011, 06:21:15 PM
 #10

I have been criticizing MtGox quite a couple of times, but I disagree with chodpaba.

MtGox IS the leading exchange. As they account for more than 80% of the BTC volume, they are by default the ones suffering from almost all attacks.

Despite that, they have been moving into the right direction in the last weeks. It is still not perfect yet, but unless someone comes up with a competitive alternative, there are the best, and they will get better every day.

They are also taking up the huge challenge to fight for getting bank access in France, which noone dared before.

This small data mess from yesterday will not change anything when it comes to overall BTCUSD forecasts.

(That said, I have asked separately to get yesterday's data straight, just to make sure we don't leave this stone "un-turned").

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September 12, 2011, 07:33:06 PM
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I have been criticizing MtGox quite a couple of times, but I disagree with chodpaba.

MtGox IS the leading exchange. As they account for more than 80% of the BTC volume, they are by default the ones suffering from almost all attacks.

Despite that, they have been moving into the right direction in the last weeks. It is still not perfect yet, but unless someone comes up with a competitive alternative, there are the best, and they will get better every day.

They are also taking up the huge challenge to fight for getting bank access in France, which noone dared before.

This small data mess from yesterday will not change anything when it comes to overall BTCUSD forecasts.

(That said, I have asked separately to get yesterday's data straight, just to make sure we don't leave this stone "un-turned").


I have to agree - MtGox is certainly improving, I notice many small improvements in the interface.  Each one of them is not a big deal and normally I would expect that by default from any serious internet service - but when I compare it with TradeHill which started with so much fanfare - at least it goes ahead instead of staying with mind boggling interface mistakes.
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September 12, 2011, 07:39:25 PM
 #12

I see Mt. Gox doing better as well. Chodpaba is right also, Mt. Gox is still far from perfect. But they are having the hardest time by far. Doing okay, considering.

As far as the market goes, it's definitely looking better. We'll see a correction but I'm not even sure if it's going to break $5 again, support levels at around $5 are quite good.

We saw a small rally with a high volume for the first time in a long time which signals something good in my mind. It will take a while for a real rally to get going but overall it's not that bad right now. Within a few weeks we should be seeing some more good signs.

Of course, I've known to not have a clue about the market before, but I haven't been wrong about the bigger picture. I still find it extremely unlikely for the price to stabilize at below $5, which means that the $4-$6 range is "the buying zone", so to speak. Anyone looking at re-entry should do it at that range, from a long term perspective.

For the traders I have nothing to say, they know better than I do. But for the long term I think I have some understanding.


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September 12, 2011, 07:54:17 PM
 #13

Once we go into the $5.00's, and people start to realize that we are probably heading down again, people will start unloading.
I bet the exact opposite will happen. We will head down again but many will see that as the perfect opportunity to buy cheap coins and we'll have a bounce back to $6.xx. I feel that $5 is a crucial point right now in general, any lower than that is very low and can't stabilize, and at the same time $7 for instance is too high and can't stabilize.

We need to wait a bit to see which way the market is going from that range. My bet is on up, of course, based on the fact that we've reached the price level which the Bitcoin economy can sustain based on the transaction count, and on top of that the value of all Bitcoins, which at $5 is 35 million USD, is a believable number for the current value of the whole economy.

The value thing is simple common sense thinking and trying to get a range for the value of everything happening in the economy. Is it hundreds of millions? No. Is it just a couple of million? No. Is it tens of millions? Sounds right to me. This is what my common sense tells me, feel free to disagree though.

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