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Author Topic: After delivery of the last bitcoin, how wll blockchain validations be motivated?  (Read 104 times)
dirac_pool
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May 31, 2018, 08:39:08 AM
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Will the fees increase by much? Will miners drop out, thus making it easier to mine, thus reducing the fees?
Other speculations?
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May 31, 2018, 01:42:04 PM
 #2

Hello dirac_pool,

Somewhere around the year 2140 it is estimated that the final block will be mined and from then on miners will only receive the transaction fees on the bitcoin network as a reward for their computing power. There is a lot of speculation whether this will make it profitable enough for miners to keep maintaining the bitcoin network. In theory if the value of bitcoin keeps rising, the fees should give miners enough incentive to mine on the bitcoin network. Furthermore the costs of energy and mining equipment will play a decisive role in this hypothetical situation.

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May 31, 2018, 04:11:25 PM
 #3

each block gives mining pools a reward in the form of new coins + transaction fee's

however right now, pools dont care much about the tx fee's as its only about 10-15% extra of the new coin production. thus they treat the new coin as income and the tx fee as a bonus
income:bonus

at the moment the reward is 12.5btc new coins(income) and ~1.5btc(bonus) in transaction fee's   (12.5:1.5 (new coin:tx fee))
and so (rounded to this years average $8k), this means each block gives roughly ($100k:$12k) $112k

every ~4 years the new coin amount halves. so in
~2020 it will be 6.25btc new coins
~2024 it will be 3.125btc new coins
~2028 it will be 1.5625 nw coins..

now based on a sensible price continuing and not much changing about the number of transactions per block. if we imagine that the transaction fee's remained at 1.5btc per block..
then in ~2028 the newcoin:tx fee ratio will be like for like 1:1 (1.5btc:1.5btc to be more exact)

after 2032 mining pools will care less about the new coin production and care more about the transaction fee.
this will be the time where the tx fee becomes the income and the new coin becomes the bonus (psychologically)

so if we imagine the price of bitcoin was 10x more then it is now in a decade
(1.5btc:1.5btc) $120k:$120k

but with that said in ~2028 if the price of bitcoin was $80k($120k for 1.5btc)  . and the blocks were still only performing 2000-4000 tx a block (2000 legacy or 4000 full utility segwit with the blocksize/weight remaining as it is today)
each tx would cost $60 legacy or $30 segwit
(yea ignore the 'discount' the devs say segwit will give. based on tx count the segwit will actually produce if fully utilited. and divide the $120k(1.5btc) by the 2000 to 4000tx)

with all that said.....

so the problem is not that pools will not get any funds in2028->2140->2140+.. they will. so relax..
the problem is how much it would cost each tx, to make the funds the pools would receive/need.

which is where the debate of 5 years+ ago began about scaling onchain to allow more transactions so that instead of 2000-4000tx a block. it becomes in a decade(not over night) slowly growing to be 20,000-40,000tx a block so that fee's are only $6Legacy  $3Segwit

after all who would want to use bitcoins blockchain if it cost $30-$60 a tx in a decade. when other currencies would offer cheaper tx fee's.

and please dont rebuttle about LN. because LN will not be a feature exclusive to bitcoin. the LN devs have already publicly admitted that LN will be used by other coins. thus onchain scaling has to happen in less than a decade to keep the fee per tx down to keep the ntworks utility attractive and useful.

and please dont rbuttle about 'gigabyte blocks by midnight' no one is suggesting gigabyte blocks tomorrow or this year. so it can be slow stead increases over time to nsure that the btc network stays cost effective, useful and without barriers

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June 01, 2018, 11:42:02 PM
 #4

Will the fees increase by much? Will miners drop out, thus making it easier to mine, thus reducing the fees?
Technological advancement would make mining much cheaper in certain countries. By the time 2140 comes, miners would probably have ROI'd on their last ASICs and they are earning pure profit. There is nothing to lose by keeping them on.

I predict that some ASIC farms would drop out from the race and the mining equilibrium would keep mining profitable. Bitcoin could be worth more and scaling could ensure that the fees/block is substantially higher.

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June 02, 2018, 09:11:23 AM
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Nice and effective write up by @franky1. It was mine question of mind. I think he has elaborated the whole process very nicely.
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June 03, 2018, 10:57:55 AM
 #6

such a tough question to answer, sometimes i also think like that. but it will take a lot amount of time. so im focusing on trading right now. and gaining profits as much as possible.
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June 03, 2018, 11:22:57 AM
 #7

I think the fees will be reduced and it will be easier to mine to motivate the blockchain validations. I may happen after the delivery of last bitcoin.
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June 04, 2018, 08:52:53 PM
 #8

I think if the transaction fees are reduced then it would be great help for the investors. However, this may lead the miners dissatisfied as well. So, a minimum amount shoulb be set.
voltagecrypto
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June 04, 2018, 09:57:54 PM
 #9

I don't know why everyone is so worried about what is going to happen after the last bitcoin being mined. I think there will not be any remarkable change after all bitcoin being mined. Angry Because transaction will still be going on. And it is tough to say what will happen to the transaction cost. Anything can happen. No one knows the future.
dirac_pool
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June 09, 2018, 09:18:11 AM
 #10

Thanks for the good discussion,

Just to point out that this question is not about worries or about how to invest best ... it's just to provoke speculation.
Although it was moved from the main discussion to "beginners & help" (by someone else than me:)
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June 13, 2018, 08:07:02 PM
 #11

Actually to get near to the last bitcoin will require a lot of time. It will take around 20 years to reach that point.
It's not only 20 years to see the last supply of bitcoin. The last bitcoin that will be mined will be around 2140 so 20 years of what you're saying isn't enough.


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