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Author Topic: Is it stabilizing?  (Read 4322 times)
Revalin
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September 19, 2011, 09:09:46 PM
 #21

I don't really care if you're just yanking my chain.  Smiley  I've been slowly refining my "fundamental value" argument for a while, and this let me write another draft.

Like I said, I don't expect my fundamental value to ever really drive the price; I'm guessing that the bottoms will be around 10x what I calculate, but it's hardly a science.  It's more just a useful reference for when people keep asking "oh my god how long can it keep falling": well, it'll stop sometime before there.  Other than that, who knows.

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Minsc
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September 19, 2011, 09:25:17 PM
 #22

The fundamentals support $5/BTC, so the price is supported by true value.  True value is stable.

So yes.

Whenever it seems to be, it moves somewhere else.

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September 19, 2011, 09:37:56 PM
 #23

The fundamentals support $5/BTC, so the price is supported by true value.  True value is stable.

So yes.

Whenever it seems to be, it moves somewhere else.

Yeah, if you read my last post, I was not being serious. Compare the quote above to Revalin's first comment in the thread.

I'm all fine and good if people want to speculate, but I think it's a bit funny to toss around fundamental analysis that nearly always depends on features non-existent in BTC. I was just looking at your calculations, Revalin, and just out of curiosity, how do you know how many coins are in circulation, and where is your estimate for average hoarding time coming from?

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Revalin
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September 19, 2011, 09:55:32 PM
 #24

Total BTC is https://blockexplorer.com/q/totalbc .  The 20% number is just a guess, but based on BTCDD we're seeing decent turnover and the 20% number is probably fair.  I'm still considering how I should formalize this number though.

The three day hold is also an estimate, just based on the fact that loading money/BTC into and out of an exchange takes some time and it's somewhat inconvenient if you're intending to buy something.  Most purchases probably run the cycle in less than a day, but some will hold a week or longer, so I picked three days.  It's very arbitrary, but I think I'm being generous on the whole.

The really flimsy part of my argument is the $10,000 figure.  It's not based on anything other than spending some time looking at bitmunchies, bitspend, etc: we don't have numbers, but they're doing OK, but not exactly giving the impression of huge business.  For better or worse, TSR is probably the best measure of real utility right now.  It's a small but significant niche.

Feel free to contribute better numbers or another technique to compute a value floor if you think you know a better one.

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neptop
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September 20, 2011, 08:38:26 AM
 #25

EVERYTHING GREEN AGAIN! Smiley

Probably(!!!) buy as long as they are still cheap...

Or wait to sell low and buy high....  Tongue

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alan2here
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September 24, 2011, 02:03:33 PM
 #26

I'm not keen on the idea that the next up will not be as large as the last.
d.james
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October 02, 2011, 11:30:04 PM
 #27

STABLE =\= BitCoin

You can not roll a BitCoin, but you can rollback some. Cheesy
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cablepair
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October 03, 2011, 12:48:22 PM
 #28

Stability is a tricky word that people do not like to use when talking about financial markets. I think the BTC values have found their stable bottom and can only go up from here. I also think that the Bitcoin world in general has gotten into a groove and stabilized it self to a certain extent. You see this especially in the mining world - people are coming down to earth and getting more realistic and this is a good thing. You are also seeing a wider spectrum of investment happening, people are taking the time and energy out of mining and into developing great Bitcoin related products and services - this is also a good thing Smiley

No one can know the future but my speculation is that BTC will continue to rise but at a very slow pace - we are not going to see anymore over night jumps in the double digit range - however if some new technology comes out becomes a game changer - the sky's the limits!

 
Minsc
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October 18, 2011, 06:02:12 AM
 #29

STABLE =\= BitCoin

The problem is, it never stabilizes, it only stagnates somewhere before a big jump.

Stable would be like if it always will jump back to $10 if you wait.  So then when it goes below you know it's a good time to buy and when it goes above you know it's a good time to sell.

But nope.  Nobody knows where it will go and when it stops moving, it just stagnates and you know it eventually will move somewhere bad--either bad for buyers or bad for sellers.

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jago25_98
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October 18, 2011, 09:22:43 AM
 #30


[/quote]
The problem is, it never stabilizes, it only stagnates somewhere before a big jump.
[/quote]

So from that we can surmise that the market likes stability more than speculation.
neptop
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October 18, 2011, 03:53:23 PM
 #31

It will!

What's happening is normal. You can make money doing something, then everyone joins, then the bubble burst and after that it will be stable.

See the famous dot-com bubble.

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netrin
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October 18, 2011, 03:58:45 PM
 #32

Utility == ($10,000 commerce per day) * (3 days average time coins are held) / (  (7.2M total coins) * (20% coins in circulation)  ) == ($30,000 stored value) / (1.8M coins) == USD$0.0208 per BTC.
Excellent. Thanks for sharing your calculation. Mine is much more simple. I've decided that a bitcoin unit has absolutely no inherent value today, but the bitcoin transaction service has an enormous potential value. The market has decided that 0.0005 BTC is a transaction cost. I consider myself a fairly average consumer in the potential bitcoin-space (albeit more 'international' than most). I have calculate that all of my international bank transfers and credit card transaction fees over the year come to about 5 USD per transaction. IFF BTC replaced all credit card and international bank transactions I would expect a $1000 exchange price from that fact alone.

However (and here it gets flaky), I also consider myself a moderately to highly active bitcoin consumer/producer. I try to use BTC over USD, EUR, DKK, as much as possible. Despite my best attempts, my BTC flow accounts for less than 1% of my fiat flow. Now, there's money supply and other users which I've failed to calculate in, but to this single enthusiast, bitcoin is currently 1% as useful as a single dollar and represents about 1% of my total monetary transactions. So I buy your penny fundamental exchange rate.

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