Bitcoin Forum
December 09, 2016, 02:07:43 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Is it stabilizing?  (Read 4323 times)
PinkiePie
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 70


GROUNDED FOR TROLLING


View Profile WWW
September 13, 2011, 04:26:10 PM
 #1

Discuss.

--
MOST HONEST FORUM MEMBER AWARD 2011
Cross my heart and hope to fly, stick a cupcake in my eye!
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
adamstgBit
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1904


Trusted Bitcoiner


View Profile WWW
September 13, 2011, 06:35:03 PM
 #2

the clam b4 the storm...

Revalin
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728


165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g


View Profile
September 13, 2011, 08:06:17 PM
 #3

The fundamentals don't support $5/BTC, so the price is supported by speculation.  Speculation is unstable.

So no.

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
saykor
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 350


View Profile WWW
September 13, 2011, 10:24:49 PM
 #4

Discuss.

1-2 day not mean "stabilizing"

Let's color the MOON: YP4ZV8yabKGBKG2uNWHQBwrdURkyxqst4D
Before to do business with me you can check my  BitcoinFeedback; ebay and .net developer profile
alan2here
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 331


View Profile
September 13, 2011, 11:00:51 PM
 #5

When was the last time you would consider it stable?
coined
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 176


View Profile
September 14, 2011, 01:17:32 AM
 #6

when gox was down, it stayed at 17 for a while  Grin
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
September 14, 2011, 07:29:15 AM
 #7

the clam b4 the storm...

Yes, there very often is a clam before a storm. Then it spits in your eye. Smiley
Minsc
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210


View Profile
September 15, 2011, 05:15:27 AM
 #8

It jumps randomly somewhere each day and then stagnates for a day, then repeats.

1DcXvfJdeJch9uptKopte5XQarTtj5ZjpL
Ratman2050
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 81



View Profile
September 16, 2011, 05:01:53 PM
 #9

the clam b4 the storm...

^ the clam hehe Cheesy

Feeling Lucky?

1AV6Qjiwhd5X9XAQ14jjiWHnGGLYFYZv5v
johnj
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154


View Profile
September 17, 2011, 02:04:21 AM
 #10

the clam b4 the storm...

^ the clam hehe Cheesy


1AeW7QK59HvEJwiyMztFH1ubWPSLLKx5ym
TradeHill Referral TH-R120549
turquoise9955
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 14


View Profile
September 18, 2011, 08:41:24 PM
 #11

doubt it.
neptop
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 314


View Profile
September 18, 2011, 08:48:34 PM
 #12

Everything GREEN! Cheesy

BitCoin address: 1E25UJEbifEejpYh117APmjYSXdLiJUCAZ
V4Vendettas
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 294



View Profile
September 18, 2011, 09:59:16 PM
 #13




WHY YOU JINX IT WHY!!??

d.james
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 280

Firstbits: 12pqwk


View Profile
September 19, 2011, 09:15:42 AM
 #14

YES!

You can not roll a BitCoin, but you can rollback some. Cheesy
Roll me back: 1NxMkvbYn8o7kKCWPsnWR4FDvH7L9TJqGG
BitMagic
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 98


View Profile
September 19, 2011, 04:27:01 PM
 #15

The fundamentals support $5/BTC, so the price is supported by true value.  True value is stable.

So yes.

Please give me your money, because I am a shameless libertarian elite who deserves your money more than you do: 9Hkao8U82WWDp6SQGn4k7ad9gT1LWeL5s3
Revalin
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728


165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g


View Profile
September 19, 2011, 07:29:02 PM
 #16

My method puts the fundamental value in the low cents range.  How do you compute fundamental support at $5?

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
BitMagic
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 98


View Profile
September 19, 2011, 07:32:48 PM
 #17

My method puts the fundamental value in the $5 range. They rest on the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production, earnings, and management. How do you compute fundamental support at the low cents range?

Please give me your money, because I am a shameless libertarian elite who deserves your money more than you do: 9Hkao8U82WWDp6SQGn4k7ad9gT1LWeL5s3
Technomage
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1624


Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com


View Profile WWW
September 19, 2011, 08:15:25 PM
 #18

A fundamental value in the low cents range is ridiculous. For me the fundamental value is supported by the size of the economy (transaction count) and the general interest people have in Bitcoin. That's all I need. Those indicators currently support a price at around $5 very well. It's based on the correlation of past value and these indicators, which so far go together fairly closely.

A price higher than where it is now is mostly based on the future expectation people have for Bitcoin and based on that we're heading towards higher prices again, because the general mood of the market is changing. Optimism is winning against pessimism.

As far as OP's question goes, there's no stabilizing in sight. We might see stabilility when the market is 100 times bigger than it is now. Before then we will have small stable periods but other than that it's either going to go up, down or jump all over the place.

Denarium - Leading Physical Bitcoin Manufacturer - Special Xmas deals now live!
Revalin
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728


165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g


View Profile
September 19, 2011, 08:32:25 PM
 #19

My fundamental value is a floor based on commerce.  My assumptions:

  • The price is driven by utility (people who use coins to buy things) plus speculation (people who buy coins mainly hoping they will gain value)
  • Utility is based on enthusiasts (people who use coins but do not use an exchange, IE, treating it as an isolated currency) plus practical users (people who use coins as a proxy for their local fiat)
  • 80% of coins do not hit the exchanges, either due to loss, long term hoarding, or enthusiasts
  • The remainder are traded for utility (upon which I base my price floor) and speculation
  • Actual commerce in BTC is around USD$10,000 per day

The practical-utility cycle is: buy coins on an exchange; store them in the wallet for a few days while shopping; buy goods; merchant sells coins on an exchange.  The fundamental value is the minimum required to fulfill this need.  Here's the formula I use:

Utility == ($10,000 commerce per day) * (3 days average time coins are held) / (  (7.2M total coins) * (20% coins in circulation)  ) == ($30,000 stored value) / (1.8M coins) == USD$0.0208 per BTC.

Note that I've already included hoarders in that price.  So, in my opinion, the remainder of the difference between the $0.02 floor and the $5.00 current price is speculation.

My speculation:  I don't think it will ever hit my $0.02 floor.  As the price starts dropping close to that (perhaps $0.20) the floor will start cushioning the fall, and when that happens people will become comfortable holding coins for longer periods.  Unfortunately at those lows it's cheap for speculators to start driving it up again (Yay! the crash is over!  BUY BUY BUY), though the next bubble won't be nearly as big as the first.  The bottoms of the speculative waves will find a practical bottom around $0.20, at least until utility is increased by stability (longer hold times) and greater daily commerce.

So, your turn.  How do you compute fundamental value?

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
BitMagic
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 98


View Profile
September 19, 2011, 08:39:21 PM
 #20

I was just giving you a hard time. I don't really trust "fundamentals" any more than I do historic prices projecting future prices. I take my walks random.

Please give me your money, because I am a shameless libertarian elite who deserves your money more than you do: 9Hkao8U82WWDp6SQGn4k7ad9gT1LWeL5s3
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!