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Author Topic: How much money will mtgox need for the trial?  (Read 2000 times)
zby
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September 14, 2011, 07:33:06 AM
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It seems that now all mtgox fees are in BTC - so to cover the costs they need to dump some of them in the market.  The trial then can have a strong impact on the market.  In both ways - because if they win the trial - then possibly the costs will be payed back for them by the losing side (anyone from France can confirm that?  I know in the USA this is not the case - but this is Europe).
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Cosbycoin
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September 14, 2011, 07:38:11 AM
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What trial?
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September 14, 2011, 09:52:26 AM
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The one in french court that will decide if bitcoin is a virtual currency or not and to how much rules it must comply.

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September 14, 2011, 10:00:48 AM
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The one in french court that will decide if bitcoin is a virtual currency or not and to how much rules it must comply.

that's funny because they are in Japan. Nowhere near France.
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September 14, 2011, 10:01:36 AM
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They have a french company handling funds in Euros.

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September 14, 2011, 12:47:19 PM
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They have a french company handling funds in Euros.

And it would take how long to setup shop somewhere else? And it's one currency out of 15. One country out of 150. People are making a bigger deal out of this then it is.
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September 14, 2011, 01:41:28 PM
 #7

It seems that now all mtgox fees are in BTC - so to cover the costs they need to dump some of them in the market.  The trial then can have a strong impact on the market.  In both ways - because if they win the trial - then possibly the costs will be payed back for them by the losing side (anyone from France can confirm that?  I know in the USA this is not the case - but this is Europe).

mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.

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September 14, 2011, 06:06:49 PM
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And it would take how long to setup shop somewhere else? And it's one currency out of 15. One country out of 150. People are making a bigger deal out of this then it is.

The Eurozone is pretty big, and if they can set up shop in France, they can serve the rest of the relevant countries. Why they're fighting this battle in stead of going to another country I can't comment on, but presumably they feel it's worth their while.

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September 14, 2011, 07:54:05 PM
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It seems that now all mtgox fees are in BTC - so to cover the costs they need to dump some of them in the market.  The trial then can have a strong impact on the market.  In both ways - because if they win the trial - then possibly the costs will be payed back for them by the losing side (anyone from France can confirm that?  I know in the USA this is not the case - but this is Europe).

mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.

So how do they produce cash flow for their operation if they don't exchange btc for dollars?

Maybe they cash out using another exchange?
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September 14, 2011, 08:03:41 PM
 #10

It seems that now all mtgox fees are in BTC - so to cover the costs they need to dump some of them in the market.  The trial then can have a strong impact on the market.  In both ways - because if they win the trial - then possibly the costs will be payed back for them by the losing side (anyone from France can confirm that?  I know in the USA this is not the case - but this is Europe).

mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.

So how do they produce cash flow for their operation if they don't exchange btc for dollars?

Maybe they cash out using another exchange?

Don't they take a percentage from both sides of the trade?
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September 14, 2011, 08:12:31 PM
 #11

It seems that now all mtgox fees are in BTC - so to cover the costs they need to dump some of them in the market.  The trial then can have a strong impact on the market.  In both ways - because if they win the trial - then possibly the costs will be payed back for them by the losing side (anyone from France can confirm that?  I know in the USA this is not the case - but this is Europe).

mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.

So how do they produce cash flow for their operation if they don't exchange btc for dollars?

Maybe they cash out using another exchange?

This is how.

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nighteyes
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September 14, 2011, 08:25:01 PM
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mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.

They still should state how many BTC they have. Otherwise, Im thinking bitcoin is virtually worthless vs the USD.
Saying the fix is in because these will always be in reserve(like China holding US dollars) is not reassuring.
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September 14, 2011, 08:29:40 PM
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mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.

They still should state how many BTC they have. Otherwise, Im thinking bitcoin is virtually worthless vs the USD.
Saying the fix is in because these will always be in reserve(like China holding US dollars) is not reassuring.

Can you clarify this?  I don't follow your reasoning at all.

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2112
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September 14, 2011, 08:58:42 PM
 #14

Why they're fighting this battle in stead of going to another country I can't comment on, but presumably they feel it's worth their while.
MagicalTux speaks French, that's probably why. If he speaks the language he also may have friends and potenatial confidantes and supporters in France.

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nighteyes
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September 14, 2011, 10:22:13 PM
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Can you clarify this?  I don't follow your reasoning at all.

If MtGox is China, and BTC is the USD that would be the easiest example. Gox has a reserve of BTC that is inflating the value of the BTC.
The question is how large is their reserve?
And yes, at some point they will sell or they will own enough BTC to control BTC.

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September 15, 2011, 12:10:54 AM
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Can you clarify this?  I don't follow your reasoning at all.

If MtGox is China, and BTC is the USD that would be the easiest example. Gox has a reserve of BTC that is inflating the value of the BTC.
The question is how large is their reserve?
And yes, at some point they will sell or they will own enough BTC to control BTC.

Sorry dude, this makes even less sense now that you've explained it.  I think you might have some deep misunderstandings about how all this works.

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September 15, 2011, 01:23:38 AM
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Can you clarify this?  I don't follow your reasoning at all.

If MtGox is China, and BTC is the USD that would be the easiest example. Gox has a reserve of BTC that is inflating the value of the BTC.
The question is how large is their reserve?
And yes, at some point they will sell or they will own enough BTC to control BTC.

Sorry dude, this makes even less sense now that you've explained it.  I think you might have some deep misunderstandings about how all this works.

I dont see your point either.
You said every "buy" transaction gives BTC to MtGox
You said they weren't selling them....so they do have a reserve with that assumption

Next, theres a fixed amount of BTC. As their BTC goes up, they own a greater% of the supply. The greater% they own the more they control BTC......no they dont control the network...they control the wealth. So people working to build value are really working for them.

They are inflating the value of BTC...thats economics 101. They are creating a false scarcity of BTC...its cornering the market, the fix is in over time.
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September 15, 2011, 02:36:31 AM
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Can you clarify this?  I don't follow your reasoning at all.

If MtGox is China, and BTC is the USD that would be the easiest example. Gox has a reserve of BTC that is inflating the value of the BTC.
The question is how large is their reserve?
And yes, at some point they will sell or they will own enough BTC to control BTC.

Sorry dude, this makes even less sense now that you've explained it.  I think you might have some deep misunderstandings about how all this works.

I dont see your point either.
You said every "buy" transaction gives BTC to MtGox
You said they weren't selling them....so they do have a reserve with that assumption

Next, theres a fixed amount of BTC. As their BTC goes up, they own a greater% of the supply. The greater% they own the more they control BTC......no they dont control the network...they control the wealth. So people working to build value are really working for them.

They are inflating the value of BTC...thats economics 101. They are creating a false scarcity of BTC...its cornering the market, the fix is in over time.

And every sell transaction gives dollars to MtGox.  As their dollar goes up, they own a greater % of the supply.  They are cornering the dollar market!

See how silly that sounds?

The current 30 day volume stat was 1.18 million.  That represents a maximum income of about 7000 in the latest month.  Because of the discount structure, their real income was probably closer to 3000.  For reference, about 7200 bitcoins are added to the system every day.  And there was an incident recently where they spent 17,000 BTC.  So, it isn't that they are hoarding them, it is just that they don't convert them to dollars.

Also, if they are creating a false scarcity to drive the price up, they are doing a really shitty job of it.

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September 15, 2011, 03:30:10 AM
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And every sell transaction gives dollars to MtGox.  As their dollar goes up, they own a greater % of the supply.  They are cornering the dollar market!
See how silly that sounds?

No, not really. China is defintely cornering the dollar market to a large degree and the yuan is undervalued. However, China buys USA debt so the effects have been snuffed out to some degree....but yeah, the fix is in for the US Dollar even without China...its called the Federal Reserve. 

Quote
The current 30 day volume stat was 1.18 million.  That represents a maximum income of about 7000 in the latest month.  Because of the discount structure, their real income was probably closer to 3000.  For reference, about 7200 bitcoins are added to the system every day.  And there was an incident recently where they spent 17,000 BTC.  So, it isn't that they are hoarding them, it is just that they don't convert them to dollars.

A max lower volume over time is an expected result of hoarding. Thats one of the criticisms of bitcoins. The 17,000 BTC was an equity investment and not a debt purchase. I doubt that changed their total bitcoin count very much.

Quote
Also, if they are creating a false scarcity to drive the price up, they are doing a really shitty job of it.
Lets see them sell those bitcoins and then come back and tell me what kind of job they are doing.
You better hope the frenchie frogs(my apologies to anyone offended) dont say its a currency.
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September 15, 2011, 05:25:59 AM
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And every sell transaction gives dollars to MtGox.  As their dollar goes up, they own a greater % of the supply.  They are cornering the dollar market!
See how silly that sounds?

No, not really. China is defintely cornering the dollar market to a large degree and the yuan is undervalued. However, China buys USA debt so the effects have been snuffed out to some degree....but yeah, the fix is in for the US Dollar even without China...its called the Federal Reserve. 

Quote
The current 30 day volume stat was 1.18 million.  That represents a maximum income of about 7000 in the latest month.  Because of the discount structure, their real income was probably closer to 3000.  For reference, about 7200 bitcoins are added to the system every day.  And there was an incident recently where they spent 17,000 BTC.  So, it isn't that they are hoarding them, it is just that they don't convert them to dollars.

A max lower volume over time is an expected result of hoarding. Thats one of the criticisms of bitcoins. The 17,000 BTC was an equity investment and not a debt purchase. I doubt that changed their total bitcoin count very much.

Quote
Also, if they are creating a false scarcity to drive the price up, they are doing a really shitty job of it.
Lets see them sell those bitcoins and then come back and tell me what kind of job they are doing.
You better hope the frenchie frogs(my apologies to anyone offended) dont say its a currency.

After reading this, I had to go look around to make sure Rod Sterling wasn't lurking nearby.

China can't corner dollars because we can produce them at will in any quantity.  I agree with your long term view of the dollar, but it has nothing to do with China and everything to do with Congress.  And at any rate, none of this relates in any way, shape or form to bitcoin, far less to mtgox.

Bailout would be a better term than either investment or purchase.  But that isn't important in the slightest.  What is important is that they spent them, and spending is the exact opposite of hoarding.  While you may have plenty of faith in your own doubts, I prefer data.  I'm pretty sure that mtgox publishes trade data back to the beginning of time, so if you are interested in replacing your faith with evidence, you should be able to figure out how to come up with a reasonable estimate of how much income mtgox has generated.  Until then, I've provided good estimates that suggest that it will take 3 to 6 months of income to replace the 17k they spent, based on current trade volumes.

And that is just a single noteworthy purchase.  For all we know, they could be spending their excess coins on socks, porn and profit sharing like the rest of us.

You do know that adding more supply to a market lowers prices, right?  And so in your hypothetical example, if they decided to sell, it would make the price go down, and not up.

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