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Author Topic: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!  (Read 8335 times)
grod
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October 09, 2011, 04:33:03 PM
 #61


When i tell people im making money off of my GPU's , They go "whaaaat" and i go "im doing reserch for---BLAH BLAH LONG STORY" And i basically tell them Everything i know about Folding@Home.

Then they go. Ohhhhh k.... so you get a Stock that you can sell because you did that with your comps? "Yes"

My story is even simpler.  "I'm doing cryptography to secure a peer to peer network.  I get paid a few pennies for this, but I feel it's pretty important so I'm doing it.  Wanna learn more?"
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RyNinDaCleM
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October 09, 2011, 05:42:57 PM
 #62


When i tell people im making money off of my GPU's , They go "whaaaat" and i go "im doing reserch for---BLAH BLAH LONG STORY" And i basically tell them Everything i know about Folding@Home.

Then they go. Ohhhhh k.... so you get a Stock that you can sell because you did that with your comps? "Yes"

My story is even simpler.  "I'm doing cryptography to secure a peer to peer network.  I get paid a few pennies for this, but I feel it's pretty important so I'm doing it.  Wanna learn more?"


Concise and to the point! I like it!

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October 18, 2011, 10:57:11 AM
 #63

I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

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October 18, 2011, 02:13:36 PM
 #64

I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

I've got to say I agree with many of the things you said here.

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October 18, 2011, 02:31:09 PM
 #65

I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

I've got to say I agree with many of the things you said here.

I also match agreement. Heres to le future.
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October 18, 2011, 03:16:46 PM
 #66

I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

You've just described capitalism and the free market.
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October 19, 2011, 06:39:34 AM
 #67

I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

You've just described capitalism and the free market.





Well excuse me ... But i believe the CAT will be dead or playing dead for fairly long long time before she can jump up again and run.. well , fairly long enough to shake off all the leach hit-and-run miners and traders.

And again, and no matter how much you say this is a repeated talk of nonsense, the difficulty is the key to look up what is going on .. but this time i say not just the difficulty .. it is the difficulty combined with the total network hash.



Because the current situation is a crazy so so so much stretched difficultly with insane mining power! So the cat is playing DEAD And it will keep it like that to shake off those mine-and-run and trade-and-run leaches.


Only, and it is jut the only way, the difficulty settle down at sane level combined by reasonable network hash power. then the cat will be up and running again.


The only exception to that is the introduction of the law, religion, big-ass market adoption or political power (or any other similar non-sense spiritual power) to force in huge number of daily users and drive the demand up.


Like in case of a residential decision to use bitcoin as the official currency for the united colonies of beavers or colored republic of birds, ummm or a sun religious direction to the sun flowers around the earth or maybe the a royal adoption by the kingdom of mars aliens... or if you are lucky some ancient writings are discovered on the great wall of ants that tells them to use only bitcoin or a lucky adoption by Assbook users, fart electronic cards around the globe , .. etc which is not likely to happen any time soon if it will at all.


Until then we will enjoy decorating the R.I.P Bitcoin Grave with a lot of sorrow and speculation section forum posts.









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October 19, 2011, 07:18:45 AM
 #68

I can guarantee that the difficulty will go down significantly, but not right a way. It will be a gradual process.

For me the cat is showing signs of life again when we go at least a month without a new bottom for both the price and network transaction count.
 
The end of continuous decline is desperately needed before we can hope for better times.

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October 19, 2011, 07:55:39 AM
 #69

Until then we will enjoy decorating the R.I.P Bitcoin Grave with a lot of sorrow and speculation section forum posts.

Oh, damn... I thought this was a link that would lead to a page where I could put some virtual flowers after buying them for bitcoin.

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October 19, 2011, 09:03:05 AM
 #70

Until then we will enjoy decorating the R.I.P Bitcoin Grave with a lot of sorrow and speculation section forum posts.

Oh, damn... I thought this was a link that would lead to a page where I could put some virtual flowers after buying them for bitcoin.


loooool. well it was .. but the flower shop does not accept BTC any more! Cheesy
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October 19, 2011, 10:25:05 PM
 #71

The real reason behind the bitcoin death is the fact:



There are 7.5 million BTC .. 6 million out of them bought or mined at the price of (200 bitcoins for one dollar).

so no matter how much new investments to buy BTC .. there will be always a lot more BTC to dump.


Until the price stabilize again at 0.005 or in fact at 0.0025 as we are in the sell mood.
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October 20, 2011, 01:27:24 AM
 #72

Until the price stabilize again at 0.005 or in fact at 0.0025 as we are in the sell mood.

Please be a troll.

0.0025 means one can buy the entire market for 20k USD. Get some sleep and think this over.
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October 20, 2011, 01:35:57 AM
 #73


0.0025 means one can buy the entire market for 20k USD. Get some sleep and think this over.

This thread is still going?  I thought it might have "died faster than bitcoin" ha ha ha ha ha

The point about the minimum "market value" is relevant here, and this reinforces it.  Other threads and the bitcoin users in general have an appetite to have some coin even if only as a curiosity.  A few people with $100 each supports that 0.001 price, but more likely if it got below $100k I would be genuinely surprised ($70,000 for 7 million coins is 1 cent each).  At the moment it's still 200+ times tat amount.
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October 20, 2011, 02:28:37 AM
 #74

Someone should make a game kinda like those 2d scroller pseudo golf games like that one from Yeti Sports, but with a dead cat ragdoll with a Bitcoin symbol in it being thrown around instead of a penguin.

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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October 23, 2011, 04:23:58 AM
 #75


0.0025 means one can buy the entire market for 20k USD. Get some sleep and think this over.

This thread is still going?  I thought it might have "died faster than bitcoin" ha ha ha ha ha

The point about the minimum "market value" is relevant here, and this reinforces it.  Other threads and the bitcoin users in general have an appetite to have some coin even if only as a curiosity.  A few people with $100 each supports that 0.001 price, but more likely if it got below $100k I would be genuinely surprised ($70,000 for 7 million coins is 1 cent each).  At the moment it's still 200+ times tat amount.


Well Actually buying the whole BTC for 20k $ is kinda over priced. As the whole project is still under development and 20k $ is not the kind of money that would any one put in something to find out in couple weeks or months it worth of 10 $.
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October 24, 2011, 01:26:49 AM
 #76

Um, yeah, the average person probably wouldn't invest 20k in bitcoin. You're telling me you determine a currency's value by whether or not the average person would be able to buy up every unit of that currency? Are you kidding me? Not to mention that you can't buy them all that easily and can't buy them all at all most likely. The price will go up as you buy them, and will rise exponentially after you've gotten the first couple million. Even if it did drop to .005 or even .00001, once you bought all the bitcoins being offered for that price you'd have to pay the next higher seller, and so on.

But regardless of the mini-essay I just wrote, let's get back to the main point, which is how hilarious it is that you think a currency's value should be determined by whether or not a single user of that currency could buy up all the units.

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November 11, 2011, 02:13:47 PM
 #77

I still think overmining is teh problem. yet I am expecting teh invention of a new technology that can mine 100,000 BTC a day.

But teh question is how many world wide would belive in it after all the BTCs have been harvested and daily transactions are pice of cake ?
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November 11, 2011, 02:19:22 PM
 #78

I still think overmining is teh problem. yet I am expecting teh invention of a new technology that can mine 100,000 BTC a day.

But teh question is how many world wide would belive in it after all the BTCs have been harvested and daily transactions are pice of cake ?

Do you understand how difficulty works.  There is no invention that can generate more than 7,200 BTC daily for the entire planet.  In about a year that will be 3,600 BTC daily.
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November 11, 2011, 02:27:10 PM
 #79

I still think overmining is teh problem. yet I am expecting teh invention of a new technology that can mine 100,000 BTC a day.

But teh question is how many world wide would belive in it after all the BTCs have been harvested and daily transactions are pice of cake ?

Do you understand how difficulty works.  There is no invention that can generate more than 7,200 BTC daily for the entire planet.  In about a year that will be 3,600 BTC daily.

2016 blocks = 100800 BTC. At the start of a new difficulty, a dedicated agency like the NSA could probably mine 100,000 BTC in a day. Keeping the same hashrate they could mine another 100,000 in four days at the new difficulty they set. If you doubt this, remember the NSA has their own chip fab...they might have even tested their tech, search for "mystery miner"...


Getting back on topic, I'm ready to go bounce these cats...

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November 11, 2011, 05:02:08 PM
 #80

Difficulty doesn't just adjust in huge steps as I understand it; if the past several blocks are solved quickly, the real-time difficulty will adjust as well.

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