Will we see BTC at 1$ in the next few weeks?

[turquoise9955]

heck to the no,
willing to bet on this?

[BadBear]

heck to the no,
willing to bet on this?

Sure, I'll bet, we can use moonco.in!  Oh wait...

[Nagle]

Multiply coins times current dollars to estimate the exchanges cut fiat currency.

The chart above does that. It looks like volume in dollars is slowly declining, except on days when Mt. Gox has a screwup, the price changes dramatically for a brief period, and frantic trading results. Volume isn't declining as fast as the price, though.

(Much of the bot-driven trading may be by parties paying very low or no commissions. Otherwise, all those trades on tiny moves would be unprofitable. So it's hard to tell how much money Mt. Gox is making.)

[the joint]

$1.25 is the bottom as long as difficulty is over 1.5 mil.   If difficulty nosedives a la namecoin there is no bottom.

Nonsense. The difficulty is -indirectly- influenced by the BTC trading price, not vice versa. BTC price is not influenced by the number of miners or difficulty at all; the number of BTCs created is constant regardless.

The number of BTCs created is constant, but the distribution of those BTCs is not.

Difficulty/# of miners absolutely influences price.  If BTC is worth $10 and and you have 10,000 miners receiving payouts, then the distributed average of USD payout to each person in BTC is 5 cents.  If you have 100 miners, the distributed average of USD payout to each person in BTC is 5 DOLLARS.  The 100 miners will sell their BTC faster than the 10,000 miners will sell theirs.

In other words, more miners = longer time it takes to accumulate enough BTC to reach a psychological selling point.  This absolutely influences price.

Yes, I know that to a degree the price will influence the number of miners and hence difficulty as a result of electrical costs and what not, but that's kind of the point as well...it's not a one way street.

[P4man]

Difficulty/# of miners absolutely influences price.  If BTC is worth $10 and and you have 10,000 miners receiving payouts, then the distributed average of USD payout to each person in BTC is 5 cents.  If you have 100 miners, the distributed average of USD payout to each person in BTC is 5 DOLLARS.  The 100 miners will sell their BTC faster than the 10,000 miners will sell theirs.

Nonsense. On average it will be exactly the same as not every miner sells and the average amount each miner has in its wallet is extremely unlikely to be significantly different. No one is selling every 0.05 BTC. Besides, even if there is a some miniscule effect (which I doubt) it will be so marginal its completely noise and has nothing to do with the current price, as its not miners driving the price, but speculators (and tiny teenie fraction for actual transactions). If it was miners, the price would be.. zero.

[grod]

If it was miners, the price would be.. zero.

Just wait.

In all seriousness, most of the mining power joined in June and July.   Like me these aren't early adopters.  Our vested interest is not in making Satoshi a multi-billionare ASAP, it's making $ now.  While previously a small % of mined coins made it to the market (the first bitcoin hack only saw 500k coins in mtgox's trading account, with about 6M mined) I'm betting 75% of the mining power would like to pay off their rigs and power bills before speculating.

That's why we went from selling ~10% of the mined coins to around 30% in the space of weeks.

Last time mtgox feared being hacked they moved 700k coins around.   One way or another 200k coins made their way to mtgox over that time.

Yes, speculators are the ones with fiat currency, and they by definition determine how many dollars each bitcoin is worth.  But increasing the supply via selling a larger portion the "new" miners are definitely a factor.

[nmat]

That's why we went from selling ~10% of the mined coins to around 30% in the space of weeks.

Were did you get those numbers?

[istar]

Multiply coins times current dollars to estimate the exchanges cut fiat currency.  Paying for power, servers and bandwidth (not to mention salaries) in bitcoins is a difficult proposition at the moment so their lifeblood is real currencies.

For example, for 30k coins at .6% commission:

$30 = $2700 a day
$10 = $1800 a day
$5 = $900 a day.
$1 = $180 a day.
10c = $18 a day
1c = $1.8 a day

Volume hasn't really changed much as prices dropped.   So at some point if the prices stagnate long enough it may become uneconomical to run an exchange.  And at that point selling accumulated coins won't help much either.

Thats not how an investor works.

Dont think most investors sets out to buy 10.000 coins. They invest x amount of money, its just that they will be getting or selling more Bitcoins.
So the amount of money should be the same.

If Bitcoins go down in value to half, the amount traded should double, otherwise it probably means that people are investing less in bitcoins.
That likely indicates it will go down even more in value.