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Author Topic: risk in hodling and trading strategy  (Read 23422 times)
Tytanowy Janusz
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June 11, 2018, 01:38:02 PM
Last edit: March 08, 2019, 03:02:22 PM by Tytanowy Janusz
 #1

I've seen many times on this forum statements like:
"trading is risky, holding is safer"
"when you are hodling you are not making that many mistakes"
"in trading there are much more possibilities to lose money"
"if you would buy ether for 1$ look where you could be now"
"Hodler is not affected by whales making pump and dump"

Let's discuss then how does investing time goes with risk taken (lets discuss only about risk).

Hodler strategy risk:

Hodler is buying coins by fundamental (whitepaper, team, code, hype, being unique in specific segment) analysis for very long period. Hodling is a strategy very often suggested for newbies in cryptos (when you are newbie than buy good coins and sell on profit after years - I heard it thousands time). What can go wrong?

1- whitepaper is just a document with words. It can be copied and change a little. Faked. I can create my own whitepaper in which ill write that tomorrow ill be on mt everest.
2-team can be faked with fake twitter account with bought followers
3- code - who of us can check if code is OK? How many of currencies have working code now? Most of them are just concept without working product jet.
4- hype can be bought.
5- being unique didn't give you certainty of being unique forever. 1 month after your investment there can be new ICO with better team, bought hype and with working product delivered faster.
6- you are newbie and you did fundamental analyst wrong or didn't do at all just jump after hype or because someone said that its great investment
7- there are 1600 coins. More than 1400 won't survive next few years because they are not necessary. Your decision must be precised and full of luck

What if any of above will happened? Your investment will continuously goes to 0. And if you are hodler you will never sell until there will be nothing to sell. When you are buying with hodler strategy you are risking 100% of your investment. I don't think there is more risky way.

Trader

Good trader have loved coins that he checked fundamental and trade on them. He is trying to buy low and sell high. When trade is not going how he planned it he sells. He don't w8 for coin to hit bottom to panic sell, he tries to sell on the rise. His risk is set by him by stoploss which is set in his trading strategy. And it depends on time period he is investing in and expected profits. He don't fallow pump and dump.

Time period:

When trader see good buy opportunity on 1d candles he has to set stoploss lower, he takes bigger risk then but possible profit is bigger.
When he sees opportunity on 5 min candles he can set stoploss even 0,5% under buy point risking only 0,5% of his investment.

Trader is taking known risk each time he enters trade and this risk i related to expected profits. When trades are not going well he can stop trading, lock money into bitcoin or usd and change strategy. Hodler takes unknows risk - up to 100% - for unknown profit. With hope that his analysis was good and data wasn't faked. He also don't have chance to learn to invest because after first buy decision there is only hodl




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June 11, 2018, 02:12:39 PM
 #2

I am in favor on your analysis, Hodler is more risky than trader, especially when you hold more of some Shitcoin bought in some ICO project... There is no chance of winning of them.. I prepared to trade all my ICO coins when hitted to market, that will lower the risk.. Trading is more on waiting and patience, plus the factor of a good timing!

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June 11, 2018, 02:15:36 PM
 #3

trading risk and risk holding more risk hold, because if you hold it you can hold the coin that you hold will run delist so it will make you loss if coin mean too long.
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June 11, 2018, 09:12:58 PM
 #4

I definitely agree.. hodling is a token term created by whales looking to dump and ICO investors who are already 10-50x up to help float the price.  People don't understand that large players in this space make more money from quick position trades... Tron for example.. you just keep pumping the bottom and then dropping it off a cliff before all the bag holders get out at even or in profit... they'll continue the mantra of hodling to all the other noobs, and and whales just keep participating in swing trades at the bottom, along with double dipping on the success of picking up more of each coin as they go along.  Three flips from 300-800 sats is worth more than 800 - 2500 sats when you factor in the position trade stack gains and you keep the coin wrangled under your protection to freely pump and then dump it at will.  I think hodling in most cases is just insane.. because the people who are messing up your potential gains or not cooperating in the way that you like, have almost 0 interest in the coin's fundamentals or future abilities at all.  It would make more sense to just fall in line with others and just buy and sell your favorite coins in position trades too instead of being whale whipping boys Cheesy

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June 11, 2018, 09:38:09 PM
 #5

I am in favor on your analysis, Hodler is more risky than trader, especially when you hold more of some Shitcoin bought in some ICO project... There is no chance of winning of them.. I prepared to trade all my ICO coins when hitted to market, that will lower the risk.. Trading is more on waiting and patience, plus the factor of a good timing!
Talking on Tokens on ICO investments then most likely of them having a single pump and then dump forever and small chances on profiting thru holding is just small only potential ones can able to place itself to the top thats why my habit when i do make investment is to sell it of once i do already make gains and re-roll to purchase top ranking coins in the market. Rinse and repeat. Holding does still need timing on where you should really know on when to sell out. Idneitification of Peak price is hard but once you do see a considerable price range then better to secure it out already.

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June 11, 2018, 11:11:00 PM
 #6

Ive seen many times on this forum statements like:
"trading is risky, holding is safer"
"when you are hodling you are not making that much mistakes"
"in trading there are much more possibilities to loose money"
"if you would buy ether for 1$ look where you could be now"
"Hodler is not affected by whales making pump and dump"

Lets discuss then how does investing time goes with risk taken (lets discuss only about risk).

Hodler strategy risk:

Hodler is buying coins by fundamental (whitepaper, team, code, hype, being unique in specific segment) analysis for very long period. Hodling is a strategy very often sugested for newbies in cryptos (when you are newbie than buy good coins and sell on profit after years - I heard it thousands time). What can possibly go wrong?

1- whitepaper is just a document with words. It can be copierd and change a little. Faked. I can create myown whitepaper in which ill write that tommorow ill be on mt everest.
2-team can be faked with fake twitter account with bought fallowers
3- code - who of us can check if code is ok? How many of currencies have working code now? Most of them are just concept without working product jet.
4- hype can be bought.
5- beeing uniqe dasnt give you certainty of beeing uniqe forever. 1 month after your investment there can be new ICO with better team, bought hype and with working product delivered faster.
6- you are newbie and you did fundamential analys wrong or didnt do at all just jump after hype or because someone said that its great investment
7- there are 1600 coins. More than 1400 wont survive next few years because they are not neseesary. Your decision must be precised and full of luck

What if any of above will happend? Your investment will contiously goes to 0. And if you are hodler you will never sell until there will be nothing to sell. When you are buying with hodler strategy you are risking 100% of your investment. I dont think there is more risky way.

Trader

Good trader have loved coins that he checked fundametaly and trade on them. He is trying to buy low and sell high. When trade is not going how he planned it he sells. He dont w8 for coin to hit bottom to panic sell, he try to sell on the rise. His risk is set by him by stoplos which is set in his trading strategy.  And it depends on time period he is investing in and expected profits. He dont fallow pump and dump.

Time period:

When trader see good buy oportunity on 1d candles he has to set stoploss lower, he takes bigger risk then but possible profit is bigger.
When he see oportunity on 5 min candle he can set stoploss even 0,5% under buy point risking only 0,5% of his investment.

Trader is taking known risk each time he enters trade and this risk i related to expected profits. When trades are not going well he can stop trading, lock money into bitcoin or usd and change strategy. Hodler takes unknows risk - up to 100% - for unknown profit. With hope that his analysis was good and data wasnt faked. He also dont have chance to learn investing becouse after first buy decision there is only hodl



You can see that with a market that is unstable and unpredictable, it is very difficult to predict the success of a commercial operation. The market is constantly changing so you should only trade shortly. , do not keep any coin long. Bitcoin prices are in a downward trend in the long term so they will likely fall sharply in the coming days, which will cause the altcoin to fall further.
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June 12, 2018, 02:36:24 AM
 #7

yes again it is a risk, something that some people deserve to be taken, there are still many things that quite regretted to be both of those things. be a trader, we sometimes sell at a price that is too cheap, and tomorrow or 1 week later, our coin up to 50%

be HOLDER too, we HOLD without time estimation, and when we get bored with the coin, we sell, even the next coin it still has the potential to rise in the price we had ever expected

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June 12, 2018, 02:44:18 AM
 #8

I had a bad experience hodling. Initially I used to research for good coins and hodled them till it doomed. Recently tried short term trade and good with it.
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June 12, 2018, 05:02:05 AM
 #9

I had a bad experience hodling. Initially I used to research for good coins and hodled them till it doomed. Recently tried short term trade and good with it.
If you holding your investment it will never failed how many years are you hold your investment. If you expect in quick profit this is not a right time. But day traders also earn profit in every day so you should analyse the good coin definitely you will make profit in holding and short term trading little risk compare to holding so no one is agree with your point.

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June 12, 2018, 05:20:13 AM
 #10

The easiest way to not lose money is to actually invest your money into coins that's been challenge through time but still there, people buying it and it's still marketable. Dont waste money on projects that has no transparency. Investing is not bad it's the coin that your investing into.

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June 12, 2018, 07:01:53 AM
Last edit: June 12, 2018, 07:57:36 AM by eagle10
 #11

HODLING becomes risky only on coins which are just new in the market but if you are holding established coins already like the ethereum, xrp, etc, or lisk, the risk in holding for years are not that big than holding a new coin in town. You should trade it than hold it for long term.

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June 12, 2018, 07:20:46 AM
Last edit: June 12, 2018, 09:26:41 AM by Tytanowy Janusz
 #12

HODLING becomes risky only in coins which are just new in the market but if you are holding established coins already like the ethereum, xrp, etc, or lisk, the risk in holding for years are not that big than holding a new coin in town. You should trade it than hold it for long term.

Risk of holding established coins is smaller. You are still risking 100% of your investment too but with much less probability. But there is still vatious of risks. Lisk for example is contiously postoninig every think they promise. Team must be inexperienced though. You also throw here ETC, ETH, LSK - they all provide platworm for smartcontracts daps ets. In my opinion after years from now only 1 of them will survive. There is no need of 3x google or 3x youtube. And there is very high risk that the one who will surviewe after years wont be one of those tree because there is EOS STELLAR and dozens more. And few more new are beeing created every month.

ETH - as you see every succesed token (EOS BNB VEN) in leaving eth to jump on theirs own blockchain. ETH is not that scalable to hold even 1 huge project that reach mass adoption. And there are houndres of tokens on it.

Market looks different now. And will look different in next years. Hodling was the best strategy for 2012-2018 period. But there is no guarantee that it will be for 2018-2024 period. Perhaps it will be the best strategy for 2018-2020 and the worst for 2020-2024 for 99% of coins and still good for 1% of coins. We dont know it. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.




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June 12, 2018, 07:40:25 AM
Merited by Tytanowy Janusz (1)
 #13

people are confusing a lot of things with each other and the social media spamfest has made everything that much worse.
saying HODL doesn't  mean you should hang on tight to anything you can find and never let it go. holding means you invest long term in something that is worth holding in long term mainly because of its long term potentials. so far bitcoin is the only thing here that has that potential.
unfortunately people start holding onto a lot of shitcoins and call it "portfolio" and think to themselves that they are experts in the field because they now have a "portfolio" but the reality will always hit them hard in the face when all the shitcoins they are holding start to get dumped and their "portfolio" turns into a ruin.

the worst part is that we have this almost every year!

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June 12, 2018, 09:03:14 AM
 #14

We have different expertise. Some may be a good trader and some definitely a good hodler. There are times we make mistakes because of inadequate wisdom. I may agree that there are still coins that are being useless in the future and are not worth to hodl for. It's true that whitepapers are also useless because they can be copied. Nice analysis, bud.

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June 12, 2018, 09:16:34 AM
 #15

We have different expertise. Some may be a good trader and some definitely a good hodler. There are times we make mistakes because of inadequate wisdom. I may agree that there are still coins that are being useless in the future and are not worth to hodl for. It's true that whitepapers are also useless because they can be copied. Nice analysis, bud.
We have a different perception on cryptocurrency, for me, holders are good and safer but it depends on which coins you are going to hold for a long run and make it sure that is a strong fundamental coin.
Well, OP has a great analysis and idea of the difference between these two strategies to determine the high risk. For me, altcoins that are not on the top 10 of CMC was not worth it to hold.




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June 12, 2018, 09:32:33 AM
 #16

Holding comes with the responsibility of trust, you are literally going to trust the whole project for their credibility, project potential and the overall long-term holding gains and ROI, you are going to entrust your money with people online whether they got a good coin that will increase in due time required knowledge and research throughout the project or else that would be a waste of time and money.

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June 12, 2018, 09:43:16 AM
 #17

That is a good analogy, everyone should know your thread I think. I just want to add what's on my mind about being a hodler and a trader. To get a profit or a thing that is desired by someone is very much in need of hard effort.

Simply, for a hodler is believe in bitcoin will have a high price in the future is the best way to think rather than see a medium that will shake your strategy. Being a trader, you can believe the price of cryptocurrency is very high volatility so that by doing day trading will give someone a big profit every day.

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June 12, 2018, 01:33:05 PM
 #18

And we have more than 1600 coin now on market. And even 1000-1500 will be created in 2018. Almost everyday i see up to 3 new airdrops/icos. Its very hard to predict which of them will succed in years.




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Igorr_M
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June 12, 2018, 02:06:00 PM
 #19

The easiest way to not lose money is to actually invest your money into coins that's been challenge through time but still there, people buying it and it's still marketable. Dont waste money on projects that has no transparency. Investing is not bad it's the coin that your investing into.
The best strategy described in three sentences. Constant DYOR is the path to success, things change on daily basis.
herurist
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June 12, 2018, 02:09:00 PM
 #20

Ive seen many times on this forum statements like:
"trading is risky, holding is safer"
"when you are hodling you are not making that much mistakes"
"in trading there are much more possibilities to loose money"
"if you would buy ether for 1$ look where you could be now"
"Hodler is not affected by whales making pump and dump"

Lets discuss then how does investing time goes with risk taken (lets discuss only about risk).

Hodler strategy risk:

Hodler is buying coins by fundamental (whitepaper, team, code, hype, being unique in specific segment) analysis for very long period. Hodling is a strategy very often sugested for newbies in cryptos (when you are newbie than buy good coins and sell on profit after years - I heard it thousands time). What can possibly go wrong?

1- whitepaper is just a document with words. It can be copierd and change a little. Faked. I can create myown whitepaper in which ill write that tommorow ill be on mt everest.
2-team can be faked with fake twitter account with bought fallowers
3- code - who of us can check if code is ok? How many of currencies have working code now? Most of them are just concept without working product jet.
4- hype can be bought.
5- beeing uniqe dasnt give you certainty of beeing uniqe forever. 1 month after your investment there can be new ICO with better team, bought hype and with working product delivered faster.
6- you are newbie and you did fundamential analys wrong or didnt do at all just jump after hype or because someone said that its great investment
7- there are 1600 coins. More than 1400 wont survive next few years because they are not neseesary. Your decision must be precised and full of luck

What if any of above will happend? Your investment will contiously goes to 0. And if you are hodler you will never sell until there will be nothing to sell. When you are buying with hodler strategy you are risking 100% of your investment. I dont think there is more risky way.

Trader

Good trader have loved coins that he checked fundametaly and trade on them. He is trying to buy low and sell high. When trade is not going how he planned it he sells. He dont w8 for coin to hit bottom to panic sell, he try to sell on the rise. His risk is set by him by stoplos which is set in his trading strategy.  And it depends on time period he is investing in and expected profits. He dont fallow pump and dump.

Time period:

When trader see good buy oportunity on 1d candles he has to set stoploss lower, he takes bigger risk then but possible profit is bigger.
When he see oportunity on 5 min candle he can set stoploss even 0,5% under buy point risking only 0,5% of his investment.

Trader is taking known risk each time he enters trade and this risk i related to expected profits. When trades are not going well he can stop trading, lock money into bitcoin or usd and change strategy. Hodler takes unknows risk - up to 100% - for unknown profit. With hope that his analysis was good and data wasnt faked. He also dont have chance to learn investing becouse after first buy decision there is only hodl




There's no perfect strategy or no loss method, knowing risk is basic knowledge and your post explain everything about it. I believe most people know about this but using stop loss with out money management is bad idea. As I know, trading/ investment is combination theory, psychology and luck. Learn it all, keep practice and profit will be yours.

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