you actually can calculate VALUE
imagine you had the $7500 PRICE.. and then split it up into segments.
by comparing different factors, events, you can get a pretty good idea of measuring different factors and putting a value attached to it.
imagine every feature, benefit, function, ability as a separate entity.
you can look at 1643 other coins out there. and look at the majority of coins that have the same element. and meaure its values
EG PoW is easy to measure. and across all the 541 coins that use PoW. that measure shows a pattern.. you then deduct that value away from those coins.
EG yesterdays hashrate went upto 45exa, compared to last weks average of 38.
meaining yesterdays cost of mining was ~$6950 as oppose to last wks average of ~$5850.. which when then looking at the PRICE chart you can see on average there is an extra $400 average of other features, benefits and speculation that make up the difference betwen bottomline cost vs price
whats best to do is take the stats of days when the PRICE is at its lowest for a period. as thats the times of less speculative emotion and leaving only the "Valued" elements where people refuse to sell below.
lets take the 29th june. the average hashrate was 35exa ($5400 mining cost) and the average price was at the periods rock bottom of ~$5800
so knowing theres no big positive hyp news, emotion, speculation. you can then equate the $400 to be certain feature/utility attributes
now out of the 541 PoW coins you can then look at how many coins have a 10 minute blocktime for instance and then see if there is a noticable pattern to "value" comparing it to other PoW coins that have less blocktime or more blocktime compared to other coins of near similar other features
you can then quantify that.
then you can take the coins/block... or total end supply target and find other coins with the same.. and quantify that.
then once you have that. you can see the layers.
whats left over is the more volatile temporary emotional elements that can change at a moment notice. like the emotion around something being promoted heavily one wek but then not heavily for day/months. these more emotional temporary events are the speculation EG december was very very speculative
i have made a chart.
remmber
the yellow area is emotional stuff.. of hope, hype and belief..
the orange area is features stuff.. of value of tx/s.. blocktime, total eventual coin supply, etc..
th blue area is cost of mining
i have kinda worked out, based on data of other coins of similar features. and ignoring the speculative hypes.. that FEATURES are worth about 7% of mining cost. ontop
what you will also notice(if you looked at all the same hidden data) is that the while hashrates continued to rise, cost of mining began to drop at the start of the year where a new batch of CHEAPER miners (the now $850 s9i) replaced the old ($2k s9 miners).. (yea i know the cheaper batches were not PUBLICLY released months ago but at that point the main pools did get their hands on early releases and the pools/manufacturers did actually lower the prices of the old batch to sell them off.
this is why as of january although hashrate rose. it did not react to a mining cost rise as that was offset by the asic unit cost decreasing over time to level it off. which is why there is a not a slope down or a sudden drop either as it took months for pools to get their hands on and re-evaluate their new costs).
anyway, enjoy
(short version. right now there is little to no emotional speculation this summer. so treat it as a good discount/low price to buy in)
data is stil a work in progress but you start to see that the price (tip of speculation and includes speculation and costs/value/feature can easily show when something is at an unsustainable HYPE and when something is at a low PRICE which should be demed as a great value time to buy before new hype/speculation or even increase of cost/value baseline
..
using chart data of blockchain.info of 18th/july/2018 breakdown
mining cost: 6898.17
features 7%: 482.87
value total: 7381.04
which if you then check th price if bitcoin on 18th july PRICE $7399
leaves only ~$18 of speculation/emotion
