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Author Topic: Rally incoming!  (Read 2657 times)
speeder
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September 19, 2011, 02:00:11 PM
 #1

Hello!

I think a rally is incoming, I even bet all my BTC on that (I had about 40 freely available BTC, I dumped it all on bitcoinica, liquidated and bought all the margin in BTC...)

And today analyst post confirms it...


So, are you all excited for the new bitcoin times?

I am myself, I will even dust off my credit card, and buy its limit (about 1000 USD) again in BTC =D

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NamelessOne
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September 19, 2011, 02:23:37 PM
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The charts are looking interesting, that is for sure. It will be a wonderful to say 'we now know it was a correction, not a bubble!'. Hopefully that will be possible.
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September 19, 2011, 02:40:00 PM
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Maybe there will, maybe there wont, but one thing is for sure: if there is another rally it will be a speculative bubble that will again burst. And this cycle will continue until bitcoins are more commonly used as a way to pay for things, thereby creating real and not speculated value.

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September 19, 2011, 02:49:19 PM
 #4

I'm hoping for a rally.  Got Asks in place ready to be filled.  Also need the price to be $9+ at current difficulty to make mining profitable (inc. all costs, not just power).

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September 19, 2011, 02:55:18 PM
 #5

We aren't quite ready for a rally yet, there will be heavy resistance @6 but it will probably overshoot. In fact I'm betting on it Wink

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September 19, 2011, 02:59:01 PM
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We aren't quite ready for a rally yet, there will be heavy resistance @6 but it will probably overshoot. In fact I'm betting on it Wink
I expect it to break $8 Smiley

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September 19, 2011, 03:04:42 PM
 #7

I'm expecting it to go below $5

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September 19, 2011, 03:09:48 PM
 #8

As do I as it already has in the last 12 hours, but that will hopefully just be a dip along the way up.
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September 19, 2011, 03:10:32 PM
 #9

I'm hoping prices stay stable between $4.50 and $6.50, like they have been over the past couple weeks. It's kinda nice. Maybe if they keep staying like this, retailers will actually start jumping on the BTC wagon and the price of BTC will start to slowly increase.

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September 19, 2011, 03:31:05 PM
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I'm hoping prices stay stable between $4.50 and $6.50, like they have been over the past couple weeks. It's kinda nice. Maybe if they keep staying like this, retailers will actually start jumping on the BTC wagon and the price of BTC will start to slowly increase.

I disagree on both items; retailers dont need stable prices to start accepting bitcoins. They can price in dollar and use a platform like bit-pay.com to take out the exchange rate risk. Secondly, if retailers would start accepting bitcoins, its value would not likely rise slowly, but Im pretty sure it would cause a new giant speculative bubble.

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September 19, 2011, 03:33:43 PM
 #11

And no, btc price would not stabilize now, far from it. The "stable" price just means nobody wants to sell at this low price & nobody wants to buy yet expecting the price to move lower, thus consensus. As soon as it swings in either direction, rally up starts and goes until the majority does not decide it's time to start selling, then it will be going up-and-down until the new equilibrium is found. Rinse, repeat. It will not stabilize for any sensible period of time in the next several years, stop dreaming about it.

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Edward50
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September 19, 2011, 03:40:19 PM
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You guys are something else. Somebody manipulates the price and foces the bitcoin price above $5.00, I noticed the little wall there yesterday at 5.00 at around 2800  bitcoins. Since then it must have went to $5.6 as that is the high. It would not take much money to move the market.

Why do I say manipulate? Because it was some big buyer who could have bought them much cheaper than $5 - $5.6 if he just bought them slowly in the $4 dollar range.

Nothing has really changed, as some people pointed out here, why should bitcoins rally any higher?

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September 19, 2011, 03:46:56 PM
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I'm hoping prices stay stable between $4.50 and $6.50, like they have been over the past couple weeks. It's kinda nice. Maybe if they keep staying like this, retailers will actually start jumping on the BTC wagon and the price of BTC will start to slowly increase.

I disagree on both items; retailers dont need stable prices to start accepting bitcoins. They can price in dollar and use a platform like bit-pay.com to take out the exchange rate risk. Secondly, if retailers would start accepting bitcoins, its value would not likely rise slowly, but Im pretty sure it would cause a new giant speculative bubble.

Bit-pay.com doesn't instantly cash out. With fluxations like they have been in the recent months, 2hrs could cost a large company hundred of thousands of dollars. (I said large, not a multi-national corporation)

So yeah, price needs to have stability for it to be feasible to run a real business in BTC.

And no, btc price would not stabilize now, far from it. The "stable" price just means nobody wants to sell at this low price & nobody wants to buy yet expecting the price to move lower, thus consensus. As soon as it swings in either direction, rally up starts and goes until the majority does not decide it's time to start selling, then it will be going up-and-down until the new equilibrium is found. Rinse, repeat. It will not stabilize for any sensible period of time in the next several years, stop dreaming about it.

Yeah, you're probably right.

Ah well, I can dream.

caston
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September 19, 2011, 03:49:12 PM
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I disagree on both items; retailers dont need stable prices to start accepting bitcoins. They can price in dollar and use a platform like bit-pay.com to take out the exchange rate risk. Secondly, if retailers would start accepting bitcoins, its value would not likely rise slowly, but Im pretty sure it would cause a new giant speculative bubble.

Have you ever wondered what might happen if there was hyper USD inflation and it was actually less painful to keep updating BTC prices than USD?

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September 19, 2011, 03:50:34 PM
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Network hash rate along with difficulty continues to drop. This can be taken in several ways, one being the geek coolness of mining is drying up which in turns means fewer interested people which in turn means fewer buyers thus lower prices. Of course you could have massive mining rigs who just don't see the cost benefit at mining at these price levels however I don't understand that thought process as I would approach the price changes as dollar cost averaging. Why on earth would you site on thousands of dollars of mining hardware when you could offset those cost with mining which you may be losing at today's difficulty/price ratio but you cost average that against what you made in the past at far lower difficulty/price points, yes?

There was some mention in the summer that we could expect to see a drop off in mining as school went back in session which if true blows my above theory out of the water.

Disclosure: I bought all in last week at 4.55 so just missed that bottom but so far looks like a damn good call.
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September 19, 2011, 04:06:15 PM
 #16

Rally is incoming, that's true. But the question is how long do we have to wait. Currently I see, for the first time in a long time, a slight pressure for a higher price. This pressure is building up, with buyers slowly taking their orders higher and getting more restless. The fear starts to form in their minds that maybe, just maybe, there is not going to be a new low.

This is a slow process and we might be seeing one or more mini-rallys again before there is a larger one. It's interesting times.

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September 19, 2011, 04:06:27 PM
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Why do I say manipulate? Because it was some big buyer who could have bought them much cheaper than $5 - $5.6 if he just bought them slowly in the $4 dollar range.

Have you ever tried to buy at the equilibrium? I know you didn't, so explaining - there's just not enough volume. When you spend even 100k at current prices, the move up is inevitable.

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September 19, 2011, 04:09:54 PM
 #18

Have you ever tried to buy at the equilibrium? I know you didn't, so explaining - there's just not enough volume. When you spend even 100k at current prices, the move up is inevitable.
I agree with this. The last time someone attempted a large buy the price stabilized back down relatively quickly. I feel that now we are near the point where moves like that will act as a spark for other movements as well. We'll see, even now there is less than $100k standing between the current price and $6+.

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September 19, 2011, 04:29:13 PM
 #19

Have you ever tried to buy at the equilibrium? I know you didn't, so explaining - there's just not enough volume. When you spend even 100k at current prices, the move up is inevitable.
Of course, to some degree, but every time buyers or sellers do a large instant trade the price will go back to what it used to be almost instantly. Knowing this it seems pretty stupid not to spread them out a bit. They may be trying to trigger a rally or sell off, but if so it doesn't seem to work very well compared to how much money they waste trying to push the price.
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September 19, 2011, 04:34:16 PM
 #20

I guess the orderbook is like the blockchain. Everyone wants to control it.

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