serious discussion on the strategy of the manipulator. Please no flame posts

[Revalin]

8/1 on the left, today on the right.  $4 at the bottom, $14 at the top.

[1715305549]

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[Swishercutter]

8/1 on the left, today on the right.  $4 at the bottom, $14 at the top.

Nice, thanks.  BTW, your chart is a very pleasant change from what normally pops up around here, just needs to be going up instead of down.

[Revalin]

Here's another one:



9/15, the day of the last 25k dump.  24 hours @ 1 minute resolution.  $3-$7.

These charts aren't very useful for trading except on very short time scales, but you can learn a lot of important things about limit orders, bots, market psychology, and as a bit of a surprise to me, just how much trading seems to be done by hand.  HFT in this world happens on a scale of minutes, not milliseconds.

just needs to be going up instead of down.

Perhaps I'll post some of that tomorrow.

[TiagoTiago]

How are you making those graphs?

[NamelessOne]

The manipulator, or manipulators really don't want the price to go over 7... 16000BTC wall... wtf

[epetroel]

Maybe the manipulator is mtgox themselves!

Evidence against: MtGox already makes $10K-$1000K a day from its fees.
Evidence for: MtGox won't let you withdraw more than 100BC a day and more than $1000 a day (max $10,000 a month) so The Manipulator will have trouble cashing his investment in using only a small number of accounts, so a non-MtGox manipulator would use lots of accounts and not have all his money and coins t in one account and the buy and sell walls that are huge that show someone is manipulating them I've seen them appear and dissapear at the exact same time, never incrementally.

Those limits are there due to US federal KYC regulations.  If you follow MtGox's KYC policy and send them ID and proof of address, you can have those limits lifted.

[Revalin]

How are you making those graphs?

It's my own software.  I wrote it while designing a bot.

[Revalin]

All right, last one unless there are any requests:



A nice view of the latest rally.  9/17 through now, 5 minute resolution, $4 to $8.

Do you see the manipulator?

[Minsc]

I am not sure, but I suspect these.

[istar]

The wall is joke for those at the Sibo...Its pocket money.

[Revalin]

I am not sure, but I suspect these.

Note that those are at 6.50, 6.75, 7.00, plus a little bit of a ramp in front of each.  Those are psychological numbers (especially 7, where the big jump is), and the ramps are scalpers doing their thing.

Here's where they are on my chart:



Most of the time the walls are sitting on psychological numbers (noobs), or on the trade line +/- (commission + profit, often in .05 steps like was mentioned before) (arbitrage traders and market makers).  The market makers bounce back and forth a bit as their inventory moves; arbitrageurs just fill back in every time they're bought through, initially moving in inventory from their outside limits, and then from other exchanges after 6 confirms.

All that's normal market behavior.  If you're looking for manipulation, you need to spot where there's some unusually large walls that mysteriously appear and disappear outside of those conditions.

[wumpus]

It's my own software.  I wrote it while designing a bot.

Cool charts, how do you sample the data? Do you just take a snapshot of the depth once every while, or do you subscribe to some kind of streaming updates?

(I ask this because I have market depth snapshots going back quite a long time, but your resolution seems to be to good to use this approach unless you flood the exchange :-)

[S3052]

Great charts.
Keep up the fantadtic work

[Revalin]

Cool charts, how do you sample the data? Do you just take a snapshot of the depth once every while, or do you subscribe to some kind of streaming updates?

(I ask this because I have market depth snapshots going back quite a long time, but your resolution seems to be to good to use this approach unless you flood the exchange :-)

I flood the exchanges.    Snapshotting through the JSON API once a minute won't make a mark on Gox's servers.  I'll bet there are a hundred bots that pull once a second.  The data is trivial to compute, and they can cache it for a second at a time if it ever becomes a burden.

I did write support for the WebSockets streaming API, but at the time it was too flaky...  Lots of random disconnects and outages.  It might be better now, but I dropped it since the markets aren't moving fast enough for it to matter.

[speeder]

I suggest we just ignore the manipulator, and go for a rally.





YEEEHAAAAAA!!

[Jixtreme]

I would like to know how to predict his behavior so I know beforehand if he will raise or lower it.  How can I do that?

Step 1: Stop believing in a manipulator.

Step 2: Stop looking at buy/sell walls. They are irrelevant. With the aid of bots/diligent traders, they rise and fall instantaneously and mean truly nothing. The only reason I watch Mt. Gox Live is to see in real time when my orders are filled.

Step 3:

Step 4: Profit

(It had to be said.)

[Cluster2k]

I would like to know how to predict his behavior so I know beforehand if he will raise or lower it.  How can I do that?

Step 1: Stop believing in a manipulator.

I've just put a few Bids in at $7 just for the hell of it, so I can be The Manipulator too.  It's fun.  Others should join in 

Step 2: Stop looking at buy/sell walls. They are irrelevant. With the aid of bots/diligent traders, they rise and fall instantaneously and mean truly nothing. The only reason I watch Mt. Gox Live is to see in real time when my orders are filled.

Very true.  People look at the 'walls' as if they're meant to be solid.  If 20k of bitcoins are headed towards my price point you can be damn sure I'll raise or lower my bids to buy at the estimated optimal price.  There is no rule in the markets that once a bid or ask has been placed that it must be left there until executed.

[Vandroiy]

What makes you think all those "manipulative" things were caused by the same person?

When I see a drop causing panic, I sometimes also lower my bids, expecting the panic horde to sell regardless of price, or even with positive feedback for a bit.

As long as you have people falling heavily into such traps, there will be those happy to pick up the money. A move might also not be planned as manipulation at first, but just turn into it, with the one starting it thinking "oh well, if they want the game this way, it's fine too".

I'm just saying, this thread sounds like some conspiracy theory of a mastermind planning ahead what the market will do. I don't believe that's the way things really are. It's not a single strategy, but rather the fact that actors using a lot of money tend to think about what they do. Throw an opening at them, such as people doing stupid moves due to inexperience or panic, and someone might just figure out the right move and make a profit.

The large bubble itself was a good example of that. A single person could not make that happen, but the people who bought below 5 USD/BTC and sold above 20 certainly liked riding it.

[NamelessOne]

I'm just saying, this thread sounds like some conspiracy theory of a mastermind planning ahead what the market will do. I don't believe that's the way things really are. It's not a single strategy, but rather the fact that actors using a lot of money tend to think about what they do. Throw an opening at them, such as people doing stupid moves due to inexperience or panic, and someone might just figure out the right move and make a profit.

Explain 17000 BTC in at 7 that can appear and disappear instantly as it has many times. Often ranging from 10000 - 17000BTC . It is either a single person or a group who perfectly time placing or removing their walls.

[BadBear]

I'm just saying, this thread sounds like some conspiracy theory of a mastermind planning ahead what the market will do. I don't believe that's the way things really are. It's not a single strategy, but rather the fact that actors using a lot of money tend to think about what they do. Throw an opening at them, such as people doing stupid moves due to inexperience or panic, and someone might just figure out the right move and make a profit.

Explain 17000 BTC in at 7 that can appear and disappear instantly as it has many times. Often ranging from 10000 - 17000BTC . It is either a single person or a group who perfectly time placing or removing their walls.

MTGox employees using insider trading, taking advantage of their btc holdings as leverage to manipulate the price to line their pockets.