Are there any other Optimistic Bears?

[MAbtc]

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

Lol. You act like there is no bitcoin Eco system. You challenge me but you never challenge those that call bitcoin vaporware. And you continually describe yourself as balanced.

Ignore all the bears calling doom and gloom and ask me where I see value in bitcoin? Just pointing out what cannot be known.

I don't act like there is no ecosystem -- how do you figure that? You made a statement. I just said, "but how?" I don't know about "balanced" -- I've said that perma bulls and perma bears are inherently closed minded. And yes, I consider myself neither.

So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?

I did say devil's advocate. Just pointing out what cannot be known.

Maybe you should ask yourself if you see value in bitcoin?

I've said I'm a long term bull, so persisting with the opinion that I am a perma bear -- I don't know what to say to that.

[HeliKopterBen]

I would categorize myself as a realistic bull.  The December decline was About 63%, which can be considered a pretty strong decline.  Declines like the 94% move in 2011 are rare, especially only a few years apart, but I will concede that bitcoin moves fast.  Also, the major declines have been less drastic and shorter in terms of time between each top:  94% in 2011, 80% in April 2013, and 63% in December 2013.  It seems to me that the bull may experience a blowoff top sometime this year followed by a sizeable decline, possibly rivaling that of 2011, but maybe ending at levels near or higher than now.

All said, I have lightened up my longer term position.  We shall see what the market decides.

Also, some of the new cryptoassets such as bitshares, ethereum, open transactions, ect which attempt to bring further evolution to the decentralized financial landscape are interesting and worth a look.

Just my 2 satoshis.

This post makes no sense to me. You identify a trend and then you predict that the future will break that trend. All because we "need" a heavy correction?

What doesn't make sense about a continuation of the bull market followed by a bear market?

What? You give examples that point to less volatility in corrections and suggest that we could have a 2011esque decline coming. Makes no sense.

It makes perfect sense if you follow fractal analysis. The corrections will be shallower in terms of percentage decline and shorter in terms of time until the market reaches a tipping point.  Then the big crash will happen

It doesn't make sense to you because you are thinking in linear terms.  You think that because I give examples that point to less volatility, I should suggest that future corrections should be less volatile.  The opposite is true.  While I believe that the trend of less volatile corrections will continue for a few more rallies, I also believe it will reverse course into a long, drawn out bear market.

[windjc]

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

Lol. You act like there is no bitcoin Eco system. You challenge me but you never challenge those that call bitcoin vaporware. And you continually describe yourself as balanced.

Ignore all the bears calling doom and gloom and ask me where I see value in bitcoin? Just pointing out what cannot be known.

I don't act like there is no ecosystem -- how do you figure that? You made a statement. I just said, "but how?" I don't know about "balanced" -- I've said that perma bulls and perma bears are inherently closed minded. And yes, I consider myself neither.

So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?

I did say devil's advocate. Just pointing out what cannot be known.

Maybe you should ask yourself if you see value in bitcoin?

I've said I'm a long term bull, so persisting with the opinion that I am a perma bear -- I don't know what to say to that.

In all the months I have been on this forum, all the hundreds of posts I have read of yours, I have never, one time, seen you call out a bear, question a bear, play devils advocate with a bear, or otherwise challenge a bear.

Maybe you don't find them worth your time, but I just call it as I see it.

[windjc]

I would categorize myself as a realistic bull.  The December decline was About 63%, which can be considered a pretty strong decline.  Declines like the 94% move in 2011 are rare, especially only a few years apart, but I will concede that bitcoin moves fast.  Also, the major declines have been less drastic and shorter in terms of time between each top:  94% in 2011, 80% in April 2013, and 63% in December 2013.  It seems to me that the bull may experience a blowoff top sometime this year followed by a sizeable decline, possibly rivaling that of 2011, but maybe ending at levels near or higher than now.

All said, I have lightened up my longer term position.  We shall see what the market decides.

Also, some of the new cryptoassets such as bitshares, ethereum, open transactions, ect which attempt to bring further evolution to the decentralized financial landscape are interesting and worth a look.

Just my 2 satoshis.

This post makes no sense to me. You identify a trend and then you predict that the future will break that trend. All because we "need" a heavy correction?

What doesn't make sense about a continuation of the bull market followed by a bear market?

What? You give examples that point to less volatility in corrections and suggest that we could have a 2011esque decline coming. Makes no sense.

It makes perfect sense if you follow fractal analysis. The corrections will be shallower in terms of percentage decline and shorter in terms of time until the market reaches a tipping point.  Then the big crash will happen

It doesn't make sense to you because you are thinking in linear terms.  You think that because I give examples that point to less volatility, I should suggest that future corrections should be less volatile.  The opposite is true.  While I believe that the trend of less volatile corrections will continue for a few more rallies, I also believe it will reverse course into a long, drawn out bear market.

Based on fractals? Ok. Let's chat in 5 years and see how that worked out for you.

[bassclef]

The arrogance of billyjoeallen really puts all other perma bulls to shame.

I think the arrogance is simply human emotion translated to forum posts. Nothing wrong with being excited about crypto.

The stance I take is that I'm invested in the technology, bulls and bears are simply definitions from the legacy banking system applied to a technology that has not existed before, though the labels are apt and create a lot of fun if nothing else.

If Bitcoin drops a few hundred dollars, I'll buy some more. If it goes up I'll watch my account grow. It's a win-win. Bears and bulls, join hands.

[MAbtc]

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

Lol. You act like there is no bitcoin Eco system. You challenge me but you never challenge those that call bitcoin vaporware. And you continually describe yourself as balanced.

Ignore all the bears calling doom and gloom and ask me where I see value in bitcoin? Just pointing out what cannot be known.

I don't act like there is no ecosystem -- how do you figure that? You made a statement. I just said, "but how?" I don't know about "balanced" -- I've said that perma bulls and perma bears are inherently closed minded. And yes, I consider myself neither.

So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?

I did say devil's advocate. Just pointing out what cannot be known.

Maybe you should ask yourself if you see value in bitcoin?

I've said I'm a long term bull, so persisting with the opinion that I am a perma bear -- I don't know what to say to that.

In all the months I have been on this forum, all the hundreds of posts I have read of yours, I have never, one time, seen you call out a bear, question a bear, play devils advocate with a bear, or otherwise challenge a bear.

Maybe you don't find them worth your time, but I just call it as I see it.

I disagree with the degree, but true to an extent. That doesn't really mean anything. I'm not a journalist here. I try to be reasonable and open minded in regards to my own position -- that's it.

And to be fair, since I arrived on this forum -- in April 2013 -- it has always been a place for bulls to congregate and insult bears. Say what you will about the forum turning bearish at times -- this has always been the case in my eyes. And it colors when I choose to post.

[windjc]

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

Lol. You act like there is no bitcoin Eco system. You challenge me but you never challenge those that call bitcoin vaporware. And you continually describe yourself as balanced.

Ignore all the bears calling doom and gloom and ask me where I see value in bitcoin? Just pointing out what cannot be known.

I don't act like there is no ecosystem -- how do you figure that? You made a statement. I just said, "but how?" I don't know about "balanced" -- I've said that perma bulls and perma bears are inherently closed minded. And yes, I consider myself neither.

So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?

I did say devil's advocate. Just pointing out what cannot be known.

Maybe you should ask yourself if you see value in bitcoin?

I've said I'm a long term bull, so persisting with the opinion that I am a perma bear -- I don't know what to say to that.

In all the months I have been on this forum, all the hundreds of posts I have read of yours, I have never, one time, seen you call out a bear, question a bear, play devils advocate with a bear, or otherwise challenge a bear.

Maybe you don't find them worth your time, but I just call it as I see it.

I disagree with the degree, but true to an extent. That doesn't really mean anything. I'm not a journalist here. I try to be reasonable and open minded in regards to my own position -- that's it.

And to be fair, since I arrived on this forum -- in April 2013 -- it has always been a place for bulls to congregate and insult bears. Say what you will about the forum turning bearish at times -- this has always been the case in my eyes. And it colors when I choose to post.

The ONLY time I have seen this forum become a place were Bulls gang up on Bears is during times of great upward momentum. Otherwise, its more openly bearish than bullish.   

[MAbtc]

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

Lol. You act like there is no bitcoin Eco system. You challenge me but you never challenge those that call bitcoin vaporware. And you continually describe yourself as balanced.

Ignore all the bears calling doom and gloom and ask me where I see value in bitcoin? Just pointing out what cannot be known.

I don't act like there is no ecosystem -- how do you figure that? You made a statement. I just said, "but how?" I don't know about "balanced" -- I've said that perma bulls and perma bears are inherently closed minded. And yes, I consider myself neither.

So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?

I did say devil's advocate. Just pointing out what cannot be known.

Maybe you should ask yourself if you see value in bitcoin?

I've said I'm a long term bull, so persisting with the opinion that I am a perma bear -- I don't know what to say to that.

In all the months I have been on this forum, all the hundreds of posts I have read of yours, I have never, one time, seen you call out a bear, question a bear, play devils advocate with a bear, or otherwise challenge a bear.

Maybe you don't find them worth your time, but I just call it as I see it.

I disagree with the degree, but true to an extent. That doesn't really mean anything. I'm not a journalist here. I try to be reasonable and open minded in regards to my own position -- that's it.

And to be fair, since I arrived on this forum -- in April 2013 -- it has always been a place for bulls to congregate and insult bears. Say what you will about the forum turning bearish at times -- this has always been the case in my eyes. And it colors when I choose to post.

The ONLY time I have seen this forum become a place were Bulls gang up on Bears is during times of great upward momentum. Otherwise, its more openly bearish than bullish.   

I couldn't disagree more.

[windjc]

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

Lol. You act like there is no bitcoin Eco system. You challenge me but you never challenge those that call bitcoin vaporware. And you continually describe yourself as balanced.

Ignore all the bears calling doom and gloom and ask me where I see value in bitcoin? Just pointing out what cannot be known.

I don't act like there is no ecosystem -- how do you figure that? You made a statement. I just said, "but how?" I don't know about "balanced" -- I've said that perma bulls and perma bears are inherently closed minded. And yes, I consider myself neither.

So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?

I did say devil's advocate. Just pointing out what cannot be known.

Maybe you should ask yourself if you see value in bitcoin?

I've said I'm a long term bull, so persisting with the opinion that I am a perma bear -- I don't know what to say to that.

In all the months I have been on this forum, all the hundreds of posts I have read of yours, I have never, one time, seen you call out a bear, question a bear, play devils advocate with a bear, or otherwise challenge a bear.

Maybe you don't find them worth your time, but I just call it as I see it.

I disagree with the degree, but true to an extent. That doesn't really mean anything. I'm not a journalist here. I try to be reasonable and open minded in regards to my own position -- that's it.

And to be fair, since I arrived on this forum -- in April 2013 -- it has always been a place for bulls to congregate and insult bears. Say what you will about the forum turning bearish at times -- this has always been the case in my eyes. And it colors when I choose to post.

The ONLY time I have seen this forum become a place were Bulls gang up on Bears is during times of great upward momentum. Otherwise, its more openly bearish than bullish.   

I couldn't disagree more.

Well, if you were me you could disagree more, because I disagree more.

[Holliday]

Bitcoin seems to me like a prototype for the 'Great Beast's' global digital currency. Every single transaction, on the ledger forever, and despite what many like to think, 100% trackable, forever.

The ledger is indeed forever. Should you create a link between your identity and your coins, there are several ways to break that link. There are extremely easy ways to permanently sever that link.

There is also an exponentially growing blockchain which will soon be unfeasible for home computer users to manage which will result in corporations springing up as Bitcoin intermediaries, serving as Bitcoin 'banks' and even central banks.

What is your definition of soon? The block chain still fits in my RAM. It will "soon" be unfeasible for home computers purchased over a decade ago. If we only allow non-zero outputs, there is a limit to the size of the pruned block chain.

Bitcoin is not freedom.

No one can take my coins without my permission and no one can prevent me from sending coins to whomever I want. If that isn't freedom, it's a huge step in the right direction.

[Zarathustra]

It seems that opinions on Bitcoin are primarily divided into two categories:

(1) BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls

(2) BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

But you are not one of those in category 3. You are not only 'at present' bearish. You've been bearish all the time while the price climbed up 1'000 Dollars.

[FierceRadish]

But you are not one of those in category 3. You are not only 'at present' bearish. You've been bearish all the time while the price climbed up 1'000 Dollars.

Yeah, I'm not sure that you can quite call yourself an 'optimistic bear' if your next entry point is in three years time. Sounds a touch pessimistic to me

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.

All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.

[Mythul]

I am an optimistic bear. In the way that I want the price to fall a little so I can buy more cheap coins, so I am a selfish bear-bull.

I think all of us are bulls here otherwise why would we spend so much time on this forum right ?

And in no way will the price remain at $800 while the user base grows. Hell there aren't even enough decent exchanges to supply the potential buyers. Right now it is a pain in the ass to buy even a single bitcoin.

[fonzie]

So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?

Feel free to ask me anything. 

[BrightAnarchist]

I am 100% an optimistic bear.

Not just because "I want cheap coins" (I do want cheap coins of course) but I am an optimistic bear mainly because of the Elliot wave theory, as it suggests that we should go down one more leg If my count it correct.

Right. The long-term count since the inception of the currency shows a completed impulse. That's a big deal.

[Bit_Happy]

I was much more Bearish when BTC was going up every day.  

Let's look at where we are really at:
Long-term trend: Clearly Up

Medium-term trend: Down/Correcting from the all-time-high

Short-term trend: Up from ~$730 (on btc-e)

• If we get a decent up move soon all 3 trends will be up, then I think ~$1,500 to almost $2,000 is likely before a large drop.

[Bit_Happy]

...We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue

There was at least one correction of over 50% to 60++% since the all time high (i.e Gox went from ~$1200 all the way down into the $400's, and there was at least 2 other large drops)

[Zarathustra]

I am 100% an optimistic bear.

Not just because "I want cheap coins" (I do want cheap coins of course) but I am an optimistic bear mainly because of the Elliot wave theory, as it suggests that we should go down one more leg If my count it correct.

Right. The long-term count since the inception of the currency shows a completed impulse. That's a big deal.

Your wave count has been dead wrong.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1730809#msg1730809

You missed 90 pct of the up-move.

[BrightAnarchist]

...We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue

There was at least one correction of over 50% to 60++% since the all time high (i.e Gox went from ~$1200 all the way down into the $400's, and there was at least 2 other large drops)

A true correction doesn't last just a couple of days 

Exactly

[Dragonkiller]

I think people who look at past bubbles/crashes and say we need to have another drop simply based on previous patterns are extremely short sided and, frankly, pretty stupid.