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Author Topic: MTGOX <-> BTC BID/ASK  (Read 73164 times)
biodieselchris
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February 11, 2014, 08:17:09 PM
 #221

The parity you are trying to use does not work when you are not able to move either $ or BTC out of Gox. If you could move one of those out you could use your logic, like when you could move BTC out you could use the equilibrium to find that Mt gox $ was worth about 85% of real $. However when you can't get either out the ratios does really not say anything anymore.

I was thinking the other way if I had $690 to spend I could go to coinbase and own 1.0 btc or put it in gox and get 1.19 stipulating I don't have the ability to get it out and the price difference IS THE IMPLIED RISK.
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Bitsinmyhead
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February 11, 2014, 08:53:14 PM
 #222

Unfortunately the price of Bitcoin on Gox is influenced by a lot of other factors like some people thinking $ will be easier to get out in a bankruptcy, people trading the money they can't do anything else with etc.

When you could move BTC and the price on Gox was 15% higher than Coinbase I am sure you would not make the conclusion that BTC on Mt. Gox was 15% safer than on Coinbase because you would get more coins on Coinbase for the same amount...

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February 11, 2014, 09:12:10 PM
 #223

Just letting people know you can now see the open order book right on the front page of https://www.bitcoinbuilder.com/ and the highest current bid is .73 BTC per Gox BTC!

Josh Jones
https://www.bitcoinbuilder.com/
Trade "Real" BTC for "Gox" BTC on a real exchange!
rpietila
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February 11, 2014, 09:12:35 PM
 #224

Unfortunately the price of Bitcoin on Gox is influenced by a lot of other factors like some people thinking $ will be easier to get out in a bankruptcy, people trading the money they can't do anything else with etc.

When you could move BTC and the price on Gox was 15% higher than Coinbase I am sure you would not make the conclusion that BTC on Mt. Gox was 15% safer than on Coinbase because you would get more coins on Coinbase for the same amount...

I would use the following method to price these deals:

- MtGox was 15% higher when BTC worked and fiat worked as well as it supposedly does now (there is no evidence that any fiat has been sent out since long time but let's believe there is). Since coins had the same value as in Bitstamp, we must conclude that GoxBux were appraised at 1/1.15 = 0.87.

- Now neither works. So we take the discount of GoxBTC relative to BitstampBTC (currently 570/642 = 0.89) and multiply it with the purchasing power of GoxBTC: 0.89*0.87 = 0.77.

We can conclude that GoxBTC should have 77% of the value of BitstampBTC.

Prior to DDOS, BitstampBTC was = blockchain BTC. If you believe that the DDOS causes BitstampBTC to be in a discount, apply this discount to the equation, which results in a slightly lower value.
biodieselchris
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February 11, 2014, 09:31:04 PM
 #225

it's kind of interesting that the open market price for BTC over the last 2+ days has been VERY volatile, and in the gox/BTC market, individuals in this forum have kept a pretty tight ask of roughly ~0.75 per gox coin. The former has millions of players and the latter has maybe 50 so conventional economic theory is it would be reversed.

Just interesting price theory, I'm not making a statement that I think it is low or high. The market is always right, after all!
biodieselchris
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February 11, 2014, 09:33:21 PM
 #226

Unfortunately the price of Bitcoin on Gox is influenced by a lot of other factors like some people thinking $ will be easier to get out in a bankruptcy, people trading the money they can't do anything else with etc.

When you could move BTC and the price on Gox was 15% higher than Coinbase I am sure you would not make the conclusion that BTC on Mt. Gox was 15% safer than on Coinbase because you would get more coins on Coinbase for the same amount...

I would use the following method to price these deals:

- MtGox was 15% higher when BTC worked and fiat worked as well as it supposedly does now (there is no evidence that any fiat has been sent out since long time but let's believe there is). Since coins had the same value as in Bitstamp, we must conclude that GoxBux were appraised at 1/1.15 = 0.87.

- Now neither works. So we take the discount of GoxBTC relative to BitstampBTC (currently 570/642 = 0.89) and multiply it with the purchasing power of GoxBTC: 0.89*0.87 = 0.77.

We can conclude that GoxBTC should have 77% of the value of BitstampBTC.

Prior to DDOS, BitstampBTC was = blockchain BTC. If you believe that the DDOS causes BitstampBTC to be in a discount, apply this discount to the equation, which results in a slightly lower value.


this is very close to actual price, so the theory does work well, at least in matching the conclusion. 
iguru42
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February 11, 2014, 09:35:22 PM
 #227

Anyone interested in a 10Gox for 7.5 BTC?

Not on offer any more.
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February 11, 2014, 09:56:07 PM
 #228

Anyone interested in a 10Gox for 7.5 BTC?

I'll give you 7BTC (70%) for it if you can't find anything better

Step1: Conglomerate of miners corner the hash rate
Step2: ??
Step3: People invest in BTCina In code miner conglomerate we trust™ coin $$$ Profit $$$
joshbb
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February 11, 2014, 11:21:59 PM
 #229

Just updating I've now added a full history of trades (time, quantity, price) linked from the public order book over at https://www.bitcoinbuilder.com/ . The most recent market price is .72 now.

Josh Jones
https://www.bitcoinbuilder.com/
Trade "Real" BTC for "Gox" BTC on a real exchange!
murmeln
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February 12, 2014, 12:44:19 AM
 #230

Just updating I've now added a full history of trades (time, quantity, price) linked from the public order book over at https://www.bitcoinbuilder.com/ . The most recent market price is .72 now.


Added the rest of my BTC now.
yimfinity
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February 12, 2014, 02:27:30 AM
 #231

Want to buy another 10 goxbtc at 70%. Pm me or skype at same username if interested.
testerx
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February 12, 2014, 04:27:56 AM
 #232

lulz I just realized Mt Gox could buy its user's goxBTC for less realBTC and come up with an insane profit  Cheesy
hahahaha, how true, they could just keep making scary sounding announcements then buy out their own liabilities for pennies on the dollar which would shore up all the losses they took from account seizures.

lol
DaRude
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February 12, 2014, 04:47:26 AM
 #233

lulz I just realized Mt Gox could buy its user's goxBTC for less realBTC and come up with an insane profit  Cheesy
hahahaha, how true, they could just keep making scary sounding announcements then buy out their own liabilities for pennies on the dollar which would shore up all the losses they took from account seizures.

lol

Hope they do something either steal enough to make it solvent or die already.

Anywho still taking on risk of goxBux at 70%

Step1: Conglomerate of miners corner the hash rate
Step2: ??
Step3: People invest in BTCina In code miner conglomerate we trust™ coin $$$ Profit $$$
unlord
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February 12, 2014, 04:57:44 AM
 #234

Anywho still taking on risk of goxBux at 70%

I am still buying MtGox BTC for 70%, PM me for details.
johnscoin
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February 12, 2014, 05:53:20 AM
 #235

I am still buying goxbtc at 70%.  up to 105 btc left.  I give you real bitcoin.

If you want to sell goxbtc, please contact me. thanks.

I bet.

I believe in Bitcoin.





PM to discuss logistics.
or Skype id: ebayren.

Continue buying.....buying....buying.



history: traded with those members, want to buy more:

ImI via PM   he send 4 BTC to me first. trusting guy. total 30 goxbtc. He is OP.
ELI   via skype
kupiciel   via PM
ozgennn via email
biodieselchris via PM
bigtimespaghetti via PM
kwilliams via email
malaise via PM
naylorfriend via PM
ihaznothin VIA SKYPE
msbc via PM

They are very good.
Smooth transaction.



Cooperation: I live in China. You can see that price in China exchanges are highest nowadays. And withdrawing money is very easy and fast.
So we can cooperate. I can help you to sell your real btc in China exchanges to share profit, if there is enough spread.
I also have Hongkong bank account and USA bank account. But most of money has been converted into bitcoin.
(Not only me, every Chinese can do it)

Also It's very easy to earn a 7% to 15% APY, when (nearly/actually) no risk, in China.
Don't invest until you know where the profit come out and where the risk is.
Bitsinmyhead
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February 12, 2014, 06:51:58 AM
 #236

Buying Gox BTC at 72%.

I have been a member here since May 2011 and have already made several successful trades in this thread. I have also made a ton of other deals through this site without any problems, just search my username.
Please PM me if you want to sell.
CrashX
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February 12, 2014, 08:18:04 AM
 #237

Why will any body paid 70%, its already under value -20% on its own market. If you compare BTC-e vs Mt.Gox.  If you compare other markets its margin is bigger, around -30%.

My BTC Bucket | Advertisers are not endorsed by the CrashX.
TheOrri
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February 12, 2014, 09:30:49 AM
 #238

Will sell GOX btc for 75% if anyone is interested. So I'll give 4 GoxBTC for every 3 real BTC.

If you have more trust, I go first. Otherwise the orherway around or a trusted escrow.

update: [Coins sold, did a succesfull trade with daburone]
cryp2wizz
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February 12, 2014, 12:36:03 PM
 #239

Will sell 4 goxBTC for 74%. PM for details, thanks. Not on offer anymore.
ImI
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February 12, 2014, 05:51:45 PM
 #240


I am offering 75% for up to 15 Gox-Btc.

-> PM me!
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