Why bitcoin will drop to $1000 and why we should be happy about it.

[Cybercrypt]

I have read through some recent posts on the forum and I see that many people don't quite understand the fundamentals of bitcoin, and so they may not be able to do reasonable investment decisions.

I have talked to many financial experts during real life conferences and in online chats and they all tell approximately the same. There are two types of currencies: Payment Currencies and Investment Currencies. In fact there may be other types of currencies, but lets focus on these two types for simplicity. So, investment currencies have different features as compared to payment currencies and they will develop differently. Of course, they always have mutual features and even may be a replacement of each other sometimes, but generally they designed differently and it will be a mistake to expect investment currency to behave the same as payment currency and have the same growth factors.

Bitcoin is designed as investment currency. We should just accept this fact. Of course it may be used as a method of payment, but it will never become a replacement for a fiat currency. Some future cryptocurrency will be, but not bitcoin. Bitcoin will never be directly supported by any major government. They may regulate it, legalize it, they may even invest in it through some bank or fund, but they will never support it directly. This is because government is about regulation, collection and distribution, government is not a player. If some G7 government decide to support cryptocurrency, they will create their own cryptocurrency with the features they need, they will regulate it as they need and they will treat it as the national asset.

So when investing in bitcoin we should not rely on the possibilities that will never actually happen to bitcoin. Instead, we should realize the nature of bitcoin and act accordingly. Saying that, since there are no more evident factors of bitcoin growth, we should allow it to drop. I estimate that it may cost at around $1000 as the bottom rock. And then bitcoin will grow again. In about a month time frame the whales and high-rollers will easily take it back to $6000 and the following buzz will rise it up to $10-15k in 2-3 months. This would be quite typical behavior of the investment currency. I also think that the miners industry will survive this drop without any significant issues, they will just have a month or two of loss, and then they will enjoy the long ride - quite usual wave in the business. And mostly important, if bitcoin drop down and then recover, this will be huge stimulation of the industry in general and bitcoin in particular - it will show that bitcoin can survive the crisis and repeat the growth. So we should get prepared for the drop and take it as the logical development of an investment currency, and not as the "death of bitcoin".

These are just my considerations, so please let me know your opinion.

[Tylev]

The topic is quite interesting and informative. In principle, I agree with her main arguments. However, I never imagined that bitcoin is an investment coin. I always considered it to be a coin for making payments, and therefore that its current use as a means of accumulating value for it is not inherent in it.

[Cybercrypt]

Yes, its main purpose is investment coin. Bitcoin appeared as an investment project, there were no significant issues with payments that bitcoin could solve. So bitcoin introduced new technology at the mass scale and emerged mining industry, but as a payment method it is still in the quite infant stage. Now I think the whales just wait for the right moment to drop it, there is no reason for them to keep its value when they can get x5-x7 profit.

[RoftheN]

I am not sure about bitcoin dropping down to 1000 but I am confident that the price of bitcoin will drop below 5k soon. 1K is a far reach for me at this point but I am not completely ruling out the possibility of this happening at some point. I am impressed at how you elaborated on this, it is a good read. I think that everyone should prepare themselves for the worst

[talkbitcoin]

it doesn't matter how long a comment you make and how many reasons you bring, certain prices are simply impossible under normal circumstances. and you bringing reasons after reasons is jut showing that you don't know how the bitcoin market works and you are trying to convince yourself that it can happen.

you first come up with the price then try to think of reasons for it.

[aleksej996]

I disagree. Bitcoin is very useful as a payment method.
There is no reason to assume that no country will ever accept Bitcoin as a currency.
Governments like regulating a lot of stuff, but they can't, that is the problem. Using Bitcoin as a currency is safer for the whole government as it could bring it stability and safety.

I also disagree that it didn't solve any new problems as a payment method.
Every transaction is a script, like a small program, it allows us to do many fancy stuff, such as locktime and multisig, that you can't do with fiat.
It is a backbone of trusted payments, something that is very important.

As for the price prediction, that is the problem with predictions, if it was so clear that it would fall to 1000$ and then go back up to 6000$, it would never drop in the first place. No one is going to sell a currency under 6000$ if they knew it will be 6000$ next month.

[BTCLovingDude]

it sounds like you are trying so hard to convince yourself!

[jayveerastrullo]

I think bitcoin dropping to $1000 is merely impossible to happen. And dropping in the that price is not a good news or no one should be happy about it because it means bitcoin exiting the marker no more liquidity and it will be very hard to them to get their money.

[funchiestz]

People are always talking like this will happen. But it's hard to predict what will happen. Bitcoin has always made it unpredictable.

[btc78]

Sorry but im tired of reading this f*cking "experts" opinion here in crypto.for six months this damn crypto educated puttong their Great story about what will happen,what will be the price and when to invest,abut all of this are sucks and nothing really happens from all their good words,thts why now i am not buying anyoneof them.i trust my on research ,and even if i loss atleast its my idea not from someone

[kaya11]

If ever it may drops to that certain price, maybe it's the start of the fall of the crypto currencies. I hope another coin will take it's place and a better one, for sure people will learn their lessons.

[pxo.011]

well in my opinion that was a perfect time to buy bitcoin and hold it with that price it will be atleast a times 3 of your investment that you can earn, maybe mt gox has a big affect about the price downtrend.

[Red-Apple]

currency is a currency. there is no type to it. you can invest in any currency in the world and make profit if you know how to and are familiar with its market but when you invest in for example US dollar that doesn't turn USD into an "investment currency".
if someone told you otherwise then they are not "financial experts"!

bitcoin IS a currency like any other currency. the difference is that others like USD has been around for decades while bitcoin has been around for a couple of years. and since it is new and also new technology its price is rising for the time being and will continue to rise until it is mass adopted and used at least as much as USD is used.
during that time we will see bigger volatility.

but none of that has anything to do with dropping to $1000. you are just making your reasoning long without caring if it is even relevant reason or not.

[Cybercrypt]

currency is a currency. there is no type to it.

Sure currency may have type, for example, digital currency, blockchain currency, etc. Your example with USD shows that we are speaking about different things.

[Cybercrypt]

you first come up with the price then try to think of reasons for it.

No, absolutely not, maybe it sounded like this to you, but I had absolutely no intention to put it that way. I try to figure out the core fundamentals of bitcoin and then understand what could happen with the price. What psychological threshold bitcoin price may have in your opinion?

[adytran]

LOL. I dont believe the price of BTC is lower 5000 USD, Let's not talk about it for $ 1000. Because 5000 USD is price of "mine BTC". If the price BTC is lower the "mine price", i believe this is bad new, FUD will be appear and People will no longer believe in the market. So, The Price of BTC is 1000 USD is never occur

[jcemos9bt]

Base on your topic i agree with you is like is like you just said my mind, nice post.

[awawo]

I have read through some recent posts on the forum and I see that many people don't quite understand the fundamentals of bitcoin, and so they may not be able to do reasonable investment decisions.

I have talked to many financial experts during real life conferences and in online chats and they all tell approximately the same. There are two types of currencies: Payment Currencies and Investment Currencies. In fact there may be other types of currencies, but lets focus on these two types for simplicity. So, investment currencies have different features as compared to payment currencies and they will develop differently. Of course, they always have mutual features and even may be a replacement of each other sometimes, but generally they designed differently and it will be a mistake to expect investment currency to behave the same as payment currency and have the same growth factors.

Bitcoin is designed as investment currency. We should just accept this fact. Of course it may be used as a method of payment, but it will never become a replacement for a fiat currency. Some future cryptocurrency will be, but not bitcoin. Bitcoin will never be directly supported by any major government. They may regulate it, legalize it, they may even invest in it through some bank or fund, but they will never support it directly. This is because government is about regulation, collection and distribution, government is not a player. If some G7 government decide to support cryptocurrency, they will create their own cryptocurrency with the features they need, they will regulate it as they need and they will treat it as the national asset.

So when investing in bitcoin we should not rely on the possibilities that will never actually happen to bitcoin. Instead, we should realize the nature of bitcoin and act accordingly. Saying that, since there are no more evident factors of bitcoin growth, we should allow it to drop. I estimate that it may cost at around $1000 as the bottom rock. And then bitcoin will grow again. In about a month time frame the whales and high-rollers will easily take it back to $6000 and the following buzz will rise it up to $10-15k in 2-3 months. This would be quite typical behavior of the investment currency. I also think that the miners industry will survive this drop without any significant issues, they will just have a month or two of loss, and then they will enjoy the long ride - quite usual wave in the business. And mostly important, if bitcoin drop down and then recover, this will be huge stimulation of the industry in general and bitcoin in particular - it will show that bitcoin can survive the crisis and repeat the growth. So we should get prepared for the drop and take it as the logical development of an investment currency, and not as the "death of bitcoin".

These are just my considerations, so please let me know your opinion.

The fact that bitcoin will not come to an end soon always give me a great pleasure, many have come out with fake analysis on how bitcoin will come down to zero but the fact still remains that it will not happened any time soo n or ever. Bitcoin price coming down to me is an advantage to buy more and gain huge when the price will rise.

[neya]

If bitcoin will drop down to $1000 although i think its posible for now because price of butcoin play around 6000$ up and down.well.if thats happen its an opportunity to us to buy more bitcoin and even to the new investors.and wait again for the right time even for long term when it pump again till $20000 and all of us will becaome rich:)

[odolvlobo]

I have talked to many financial experts during real life conferences and in online chats and they all tell approximately the same. There are two types of currencies: Payment Currencies and Investment Currencies. In fact there may be other types of currencies, but lets focus on these two types for simplicity. So, investment currencies have different features as compared to payment currencies and they will develop differently. Of course, they always have mutual features and even may be a replacement of each other sometimes, but generally they designed differently and it will be a mistake to expect investment currency to behave the same as payment currency and have the same growth factors.

I'm skeptical of your so-called "experts". What exactly are the differences between a "payment currency" and a "investment currency"? Do you have any good examples (other than cryptocurrencies)?

Bitcoin is designed as investment currency. ... Bitcoin will never be directly supported by any major government. ...

What about Bitcoin's design makes it specifically an "investment currency". Are you claiming that only a government-supported currency can be a "payment currency"? How do you support that claim?

My own belief is that with widespread adoption, Bitcoin will become a boring cryptocurrency with no more investment opportunity than any other major currency. And when that happens, I won't have to pay attention to any of the speculation hysteria and the world will be a much better place.