Are bitcoins on Mt.Gox worth 70% of bitcoins elsewhere? Or 60%?

[kawkaw2013]

It is currently possible to instantly move bitcoins between Mt.Gox accounts.

There is an active market for exchanging bitcoins in Mt.Gox accounts with bitcoins outside Mt.Gox. Thousands of coins have changed hands.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455243.0;all

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=457723.0;all



I myself did this a couple of days ago.


I'm wondering what the fair exchange rate woudld be?

The current USD price on Bitstamp of $715 is 22% more than the current Mt.Gox price of $585.

But given that it might take a long time for Mt.Gox to resume bitcoin withdrawals, people who want their bitcoins out of Mt.Gox right now should pay more for the privilege. What's this worth? 5%, 10%?

And there's also the risk that Mt.Gox will never pay out the bitcoins due to insolvency. I guess I am contrary, and am still optimistic about Mt.Gox, and so I'll assign just 5% to this risk.

Adding these up says that bitcoins elsewhere are worth 32% to 37% more than on Mt.Gox.


Am I thinking about this correctly? Have I missed something?

[PirateHatForTea]

Joshbb has created an exchange to trade GoxBTC for realBTC - see here: https://www.bitcoinbuilder.com

On there, the bids sit at around 0.6-0.75 and the asks at 0.76-0.8.

Personally I think that GoxBtC are worth around 25%-30% right now - I don't believe they have enough BTC to pay everybody, I think they lost a LOT to repeated withdrawals, especially when you consider that this has been happening since November.

[kawkaw2013]

Thanks for the link. I didn't know of that site.

Personally I think that GoxBtC are worth around 25%-30% right now

Wow, you're really pessimistic.

But you raise a good point. I do agree that it's quite likely that lots of coins were stolen from Mt.Gox because of their buggy software, as why else are they continuing to suspend withdrawals after they have identified the problem? The question is how much? They would have made enormous profits during the last year and so hopefully they made enough to cover their losses.

I wouldn't sell my goxxed coins at 30% and I think I would buy more at 50%. Paying more than that right now seems rather risky though.

[Oldminer]

Joshbb has created an exchange to trade GoxBTC for realBTC

Says it all really. Gox BTC imo arent real.

[jamesc760]

IMHO, your btc at MtGox is worth exactly 0, nada, zilch, zero.

[kawkaw2013]

Even if it's 50/50 that Mt.Gox is insolvent, the coins are still worth more than zero!

People are still exchanging their goxxed coins for real coins, so the buyers still perceive a value.

[PirateHatForTea]

Yep. It's going to be interesting watching the price on Gox debt go down over the coming weeks. I'm surprised by how low the spread is on that site though, or was -there were no sellers anymore when I last checked. They will come, as Gox drags this out longer and longer.

[Impaler]

Remember Gox-BTC trades for Gox-USD and BOTH are IOU's that are worth less then the real thing by a substantial amount.