It is currently possible to instantly move bitcoins between Mt.Gox accounts.
There is an active market for exchanging bitcoins in Mt.Gox accounts with bitcoins outside Mt.Gox. Thousands of coins have changed hands.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455243.0;allhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=457723.0;allI myself did this a couple of days ago.
I'm wondering what the fair exchange rate woudld be?
The current USD price on Bitstamp of $715 is 22% more than the current Mt.Gox price of $585.
But given that it might take a long time for Mt.Gox to resume bitcoin withdrawals, people who want their bitcoins out of Mt.Gox right now should pay more for the privilege. What's this worth? 5%, 10%?
And there's also the risk that Mt.Gox will never pay out the bitcoins due to insolvency. I guess I am contrary, and am still optimistic about Mt.Gox, and so I'll assign just 5% to this risk.
Adding these up says that bitcoins elsewhere are worth 32% to 37% more than on Mt.Gox.
Am I thinking about this correctly? Have I missed something?