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Author Topic: Rally is starting  (Read 12225 times)
Tronlet
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October 06, 2011, 11:22:06 AM
 #121

That's a pretty big image, here's an easier to read one:



For those who don't get what this means, the green line shows how many bitcoins would have to be sold to hit a given price. Or, for the bitcoin price to go down to 4 dollars, about 44k more bitcoins would have to be sold than bought. Whereas for the price to go all the way up to 5.25, 22k more bitcoins would have to be bought than would be sold. So the buy/bid side is definitely shallower than the sell side, which basically means it's easier to make the price go up by buying than down by selling. Doesn't necessarily imply anything though, since investors probably don't feel like buying right now. Tongue

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Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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Gerken
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October 06, 2011, 11:30:25 AM
 #122

Except those walls are generally fake (my money is on gox), so saying it's more likely to go up cause of that is a fallacy.

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October 06, 2011, 11:32:15 AM
 #123

The current bid wall at 4.48 is just peanuts with what was there a few minutes ago - there was a bid for 50k bitcoins.  It probably stoped the downturn - but why was it removed?
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October 06, 2011, 11:34:36 AM
 #124

The current bid wall at 4.48 is just peanuts with what was there a few minutes ago - there was a bid for 50k bitcoins.  It probably stoped the downturn - but why was it removed?

Because someone wanted to prevent the crash, not to actually sell...

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October 06, 2011, 02:16:27 PM
 #125

As soon as enough traders become convinced it will not move, it will move.

I have quite a few grand that finally transferred into Dwolla a week or two ago. Usually I buy right away, but I'm now one of those waiting to be convinced it won't move before I help move it...
(The Dwolla lady that called me, wondering what the heck, and verifying my identity, sounded very nice. I just hope Dwolla doesn't get Goxed)

But you are not selling what you have yet?

No, I'm not. Whatever I put into it over the course of the Summer I'm still holding on to, and have no plans to get rid of (even if I overpaid)

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October 06, 2011, 02:47:00 PM
 #126

As soon as enough traders become convinced it will not move, it will move.

I have quite a few grand that finally transferred into Dwolla a week or two ago. Usually I buy right away, but I'm now one of those waiting to be convinced it won't move before I help move it...
(The Dwolla lady that called me, wondering what the heck, and verifying my identity, sounded very nice. I just hope Dwolla doesn't get Goxed)

But you are not selling what you have yet?

No, I'm not. Whatever I put into it over the course of the Summer I'm still holding on to, and have no plans to get rid of (even if I overpaid)

So it is not bottom yet.

Don't take this personally - but you are the 'long investor' with what I judged the most honest posts - so I like to take you as a representation of this type.
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October 06, 2011, 03:13:12 PM
 #127

We've bounced on $4.6 for 4 weeks, a very similar pattern to the month of July, when I expected $13 to hold.

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October 06, 2011, 03:34:31 PM
 #128

As soon as enough traders become convinced it will not move, it will move.

I have quite a few grand that finally transferred into Dwolla a week or two ago. Usually I buy right away, but I'm now one of those waiting to be convinced it won't move before I help move it...
(The Dwolla lady that called me, wondering what the heck, and verifying my identity, sounded very nice. I just hope Dwolla doesn't get Goxed)

But you are not selling what you have yet?

No, I'm not. Whatever I put into it over the course of the Summer I'm still holding on to, and have no plans to get rid of (even if I overpaid)

So it is not bottom yet.

Don't take this personally - but you are the 'long investor' with what I judged the most honest posts - so I like to take you as a representation of this type.

Long investor/not worried if I lose the money I put in. If it drops to $0, I'll just shrug it off, but I believe that it won't, and so keep holding. In other words, don't use me as a barometer for whether this thing will die or not. I'm pretty bad at predicting bottoms, too, and I hold because I can miss a rally just as easily as I can predict another drop.

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October 06, 2011, 03:43:40 PM
 #129

Bitcoins value if nothing else even simply as a transaction tool should price it quite a bit higher than it is now.

Heck even "American Banker" is talking about bitcoins and in loose terms comparing it to a bank.

http://www.americanbanker.com/morningscan/Morning-Scan-1042905-1.html Under the heading elsewhere. I know it's just a reference to the New Yorker piece but still shows we're far from dead.

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October 06, 2011, 03:51:12 PM
 #130

We speak about rally and bitcoin drop from 5 to 4.6...weird rally is weird
netrin
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October 06, 2011, 03:58:43 PM
 #131

We speak about rally and bitcoin drop from 5 to 4.6...weird rally is weird

People speak of USD rally after ten years of declines. It's the rate-of-change curves you need to look at if you want to predict where it is going.

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October 06, 2011, 04:06:48 PM
 #132


Allow me to provide a little perspective:



omg... ...  .. IT'S a RALLY! ... .. no?
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October 06, 2011, 04:06:58 PM
 #133

We speak about rally and bitcoin drop from 5 to 4.6...weird rally is weird

Actually, it makes sense. Bitcoin is big news in China recently, with many more people buying now, so it's a rally to China (down)  Grin

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October 06, 2011, 04:12:14 PM
 #134

The China news is mainly just one province atm Guangxi (at least in terms of tv coverage) just wait until it goes national.

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October 06, 2011, 04:41:50 PM
 #135

The China news is mainly just one province atm Guangxi (at least in terms of tv coverage) just wait until it goes national.

Hey Piggy, Is it common for Chinese sites to use .com or primarily .cn? I see bitebi.com is for sale.

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Bigpiggy01
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October 06, 2011, 04:46:21 PM
 #136

I'd go with .com

All .cn domains require registering here in China and I'd not be willing to do that with a bitcoin site until it has some kind of legal status. I'm hoping that the court case in France might push some stuff in that direction.

Both are fairly common though often large corps do .com.cn

Hovrdan gaar det forresten paa Greonland?  Grin

netrin
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October 06, 2011, 06:16:53 PM
 #137

Do you see bitcoin as being useful in China or just for geeks as anywhere else?

På toppen af ​​verden, tak.

你玩围棋吗 ? (looks like you could throw a stone to Korea)

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Bigpiggy01
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October 06, 2011, 09:29:42 PM
 #138

I see bitcoins as being a fantastic medium for small-midsized businesses here gaining access to the world.

I've managed to do substantially more business and product sourcing from here using bitcoins, than I would have without it and bear in mind that this is solely using bitcoins as a method of payment.

Og ja jeg spiller skak  Tongue

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October 07, 2011, 01:51:25 AM
 #139

I've managed to do substantially more business and product sourcing from here using bitcoins, than I would have without it and bear in mind that this is solely using bitcoins as a method of payment.
Could you elaborate on what you are doing, if you don't mind?

围棋 go weiqi baduk

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October 07, 2011, 09:58:25 AM
 #140

My bread and butter job is doing English and quality systems (mainly HACCP and IFS with a bit of six-sigma thrown in for good measure) training for a range of different companies here and designing courses and materials for use as supplementary coursebooks in public schools from grades 1-12.

Apart from that I do product sourcing and quality inspections for a couple of European companies from here mainly seeds, nuts and that kind of foodstuffs. As Dalian happens to be a fairly large transit hub for that kind of product. This is NOT a very lively business atm.

As to my own business I do a tiny bit in different types of handmade paper for specialty artists supply shops mainly in Scandinavia atm.

What bitcoin has enabled me to do is to take quite a few extra contracts where I suddenly have to jump all over China to do onsite inspections. I've had companies pay me retainers or upfront expenses in bitcoin instead of waiting for SWIFT to get it's act together. This is usually done using personal $$ by some of their staff and I haven't got a clue as to how they put it on their books.

The last contract I did of this type was for a small German bakery-wholesalers that had a container of sunflower seeds that the shipper found an infestation in (yup bugs). I got paid an advance of 280BTC to cover airfare etc. and then I jumped on a plane to Qingdao looked at the container and declared it good to go with the addition of a fumigant.

The advantage for the client here is that I could go with 2 hours notice, I made a killing (by local standards) for an afternoons work. And they saved 10X the amount on non paid demurage compared with going via SWIFT or sending someone out from back home (in this case probably more savings). This is make or break money for lots of small-medium businesses.

It's not something that I'll get rich of but simply the value of this service compared with the banking system should push the price of bitcoin WAY past it's current levels.

This is probably not applicable on a large scale yet, as lots of companies need bitcoins to become legal something for them to be able to put this kind of expenses properly on their books. The handful of companies that I'm currently dealing with have know and dealt with me for years and are willing to bend the rules a little to get win-win deals.

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