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Author Topic: Rally is starting  (Read 12216 times)
grod
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October 01, 2011, 09:09:51 PM
 #61

The biggest thing in my opinion that is going to make the price go up quickly is that as soon is we get some "market confirmation" all the sharks who sold out for a drop in price back at 15 will be buying back at 6 - 7.  Seems to me a large part of the market is just people sitting out, getting ready to jump back in. I think that will take us past 20. Just my guessing though.

A quick bubble to 20 (or hell, even 15) would be awesome.  We'd see another immense growth in hash rate, and another slow crash.  I won't need too many cycles like that to turn my bitcoin pocket change into enough dollars to ... not be invested in bitcoin.
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October 01, 2011, 09:14:55 PM
 #62

The biggest thing in my opinion that is going to make the price go up quickly is that as soon is we get some "market confirmation" all the sharks who sold out for a drop in price back at 15 will be buying back at 6 - 7.  Seems to me a large part of the market is just people sitting out, getting ready to jump back in. I think that will take us past 20. Just my guessing though.

A quick bubble to 20 (or hell, even 15) would be awesome.  We'd see another immense growth in hash rate, and another slow crash.  I won't need too many cycles like that to turn my bitcoin pocket change into enough dollars to ... not be invested in bitcoin.


We already had people buying back at 6... except someone with 10k coins stopped it instantly Sad

(BFL)^2 < 0
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October 01, 2011, 10:44:16 PM
 #63

A quick bubble to 20 (or hell, even 15) would be awesome.  We'd see another immense growth in hash rate, and another slow crash.  I won't need too many cycles like that to turn my bitcoin pocket change into enough dollars to ... not be invested in bitcoin.

grod, don't wait. Sell now.
grod
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October 02, 2011, 02:21:00 AM
 #64

A quick bubble to 20 (or hell, even 15) would be awesome.  We'd see another immense growth in hash rate, and another slow crash.  I won't need too many cycles like that to turn my bitcoin pocket change into enough dollars to ... not be invested in bitcoin.

grod, don't wait. Sell now.

I typically sell on sunday nights and tuesday evenings.  Have been every week (except the time I missed one at $8) since $24.  Pains me to dump at $5, but it also pained me at 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13...  You get the picture.

I'll "buy back" (through mining of course) once I see a sustained up trend.
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October 02, 2011, 07:04:16 AM
 #65

cycles come and go. there will be a time when tuesdays and sundays will be very different

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October 02, 2011, 08:32:58 AM
 #66

I don't see any rally, bitcoin is just above $5, though I must say that the bitcoin has been relatively stable of late.
grod
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October 02, 2011, 06:48:37 PM
 #67

I don't see any rally, bitcoin is just above $5, though I must say that the bitcoin has been relatively stable of late.

That's Elliot waves for you.  Early on I noticed the rally/consolidate/flatline/drop cycle repeated over and over and over.  A long "stable" period at the same (or slightly decreasing) price makes me nervous.
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October 02, 2011, 11:38:27 PM
 #68

Right now, if you look at the charts, we have a quadruple bottom (!!!) forming, with volume going steadily down and successively smaller highs.  What does everyone make of this?

(BFL)^2 < 0
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October 02, 2011, 11:44:25 PM
 #69

I don't see any rally, bitcoin is just above $5, though I must say that the bitcoin has been relatively stable of late.

That's Elliot waves for you.  Early on I noticed the rally/consolidate/flatline/drop cycle repeated over and over and over.  A long "stable" period at the same (or slightly decreasing) price makes me nervous.


Of course the timespans in which the waves complete seems to increase logarithmically/exponentially so it makes sense that this flatline should last longer than the ones which preceded it. If BTC ever does see use as common currency it will likely be within extremely long flatline periods so it's probably a good thing to see log/exp increases in the cycle length.

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October 03, 2011, 04:13:21 AM
 #70

Right now, if you look at the charts, we have a quadruple bottom (!!!) forming, with volume going steadily down and successively smaller highs.  What does everyone make of this?

Your "quadruple bottom" is actually a trading range, with a slight negative bias.  In order for this to be a reversal pattern it'd have to have a convincing breakout utterly smashing several resistance levels.  If that happened I'd switch from bear mode to bull mode, like I've briefly done in the past.


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October 03, 2011, 04:20:59 AM
 #71

If there are going to be very long flatline periods it will not be while Bitcoin is trading in the single digits, unless volume drops to zero, then it will not be much use to anyone.

Have to disagree.  It *could* flatline with decent volume if the bots are the main traders.  We've seen that before.  If the market maker is bigger than the entire market then prices aren't going anywhere.

Also, "very long" is relative in bitcoin time.  We're talking days to weeks here, not months to years.
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October 03, 2011, 04:50:48 AM
 #72

The main problem with the volatility is that it is a shallow market and it is not really tied to anything. Five buck Bitcoins, even at 21M BTC is still just $105M, well within reach of a single market maker. All the bots could do is make things worse. Again I say to the stability hawks, if a relatively stable Bitcoin exchange rate is what you desire it is going to require a 'capitalization' measured in the billions. Even if this is accomplished by bots it would still require sustained purchases of Bitcoin at ever higher exchange rates. That means real investment in the Bitocion economy, and no amount of gaming will make that happen.

What makes matters worse is there's no real way to hedge against bitcoin volatility.   Bitcoinica and its insane margin requirements doesn't count.   A market cap of billions could provide stability, but even a smaller market cap could be stable IF we had options trading on a regulated exchange to create hedges with.  Oh, and the exchange rate wasn't $5 but more like $50.

Merchants could go long in the money puts and be secure knowing bitcoins they take in won't drop far enough to kill their margins.   Miners could short calls to go long puts, locking in long term income and planning operations with time horizons measured in months or years instead of days.   All sorts of stabilizing options (pardon the pun) become possible if you have reasonable margin requirements and a prayer of actually assigning your options.
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October 03, 2011, 07:13:03 PM
 #73

What makes matters worse is there's no real way to hedge against bitcoin volatility.   Bitcoinica and its insane margin requirements doesn't count. 
That Bitcoinica has high margin requirements and takes positions very cautiously is encouraging. The big problem with options in an unregulated market is getting paid when the counterparty takes a loss.

Loans, bonds, options, and investments, all of which require payback, require enforcement to be viable. Anonymous finance only works for immediate transactions.
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October 03, 2011, 07:34:15 PM
 #74

Maybe people are starting to realize that bitcoin can be traded for goods instead of USD or other fiat currencies.  Hence the stability.

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October 03, 2011, 09:07:39 PM
 #75

Maybe people are starting to realize that bitcoin can be traded for goods instead of USD or other fiat currencies. 
How many alpaca socks can you use?
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October 03, 2011, 09:24:16 PM
 #76

Maybe people are starting to realize that bitcoin can be traded for goods instead of USD or other fiat currencies. 
How many alpaca socks can you use?

Depends on the region.. In the Mt. Everest region, you'll need a few...

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October 04, 2011, 12:38:45 AM
 #77

Depends on the region.. In the Mt. Everest region, you'll need a few...

I've got muskox wool (Qiviuq). You'll only need one pair and your neighbors will be warm.

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
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October 04, 2011, 05:58:05 AM
 #78

This stability is quite impressive.  Bravo bitcoin, bravo!

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ineededausername
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October 04, 2011, 12:37:34 PM
 #79

Wow, it hardly moved!  Almost as if it's acting like a currency..

(BFL)^2 < 0
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October 04, 2011, 01:09:30 PM
 #80

this is boring as hell..mtgoxlive sucks these days..ah well back to porn for now
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