Wow, Alt-coins.... Game over

[lonesoul]

What i find amazing is the fact that the combined total value of all alt coins has risen over the last few months, even though every few days you see loads of posts citing the demise of alt coins!

I seem to recall seeing that list when the combined total only reached 7billion  but now its sitting at 10.1 Billion.

Things aren't going down, Things are diversifying.

At least thats my perception ^.^

[markco2]

It's funny how everyone is hating on dogecoin, did people do this on the early phases of litecoin too?

Dogecoin is amazing if you consider how many new people it has brought into cryptos. The reddit community is one of the friendliest and biggest ever. They are going to surpass r/bitcoin in a couple of months easily.

I'm just gonna lay back and laugh at the haters once dogecoin surpasses litecoin in market value.

That won't happen the fundamentals are flawed for Dogecoin to be taken as a seriously competitor to Litecoin.


its a clonecoin and the creator even admits it .

You think so do you?
It maybe a cloned coin to Litecoin.

A few glaring differences.

It's the most marketable Altcoin of them all.

Who do not like dogs?
Perhaps some people who prefer cats to dogs.
I would say there would be even fewer that like neither.

Something else to think about that makes it very marketable is in "Tipping".
Even if each Dogecoin is only a fraction of a cent, to have within the Doge community,
raising funds for worthwhile causes is pretty special.  Its not about hoarding it as a long term investment.
It's based on consumption as with normal fiat currency.  Doesn't matter how it is used up.  Nore does it matter
if the price remains stagnant. Shouldn't that be a function of money?
It should be seen as a compliment to Bitcoin.  Not a competitor.

If you asked a person in the street who had heard of Bitcoins and Alt currencies, yet were still very green in how it works.
Which sounds and looks better as a giveaway or a prize?  (A) .01 of a Bitcoin  or (B) 3,700 Dogecoins.
You may think it is a foregone conclusion.  Yet, remember seeing Mark Dice on Youtube on several occassions tried to swap his 1oz Gold Eagle
for a $20 Us Note and he was even across the road from a coin dealer.  Hilarious, how he had no takers.  Had it been someone informed they would have jumped at it.  Considering the US Fed has been shuffling the Fiat for 100 years as part of everyday use and Gold has been used as an exchange mechanism
and a store of wealth for thousands of years, everyday people are too caught up in themselves to even recognize or understand value.

That means Bitcoin will continue to evolve behind the scenes as it's still in it's infancy.  Dogecoin will continue to be seen as a Tipping Platform as it markets it's lovable Shibe.  Both are complimentary to one another as the real world of consumers couldn't care too hoots about the complexities of the development side as long as it's secure and they can use it to purchase all products and services whenever they want to without the volatility.

In my mind Bitcoin needs friends.  Dogecoin can be that friend.

Cheers markco2

[toknormal]

I basically agree with the OP except for a couple of quite fundamental points.

I think that alt coins do have a genuine function as alternatives to Bitcoin. In particular, 2 themes stand out:

[1] -. LIQUIDITY

As we've seen with the Dogue "phenomenon", alt coins with a large supply can provide liquidity to a large market in a way that Bitcoin cannot due to its high coin value (divisibility does not solve this, the problem is due due Bitcoinon's role in the market as the "reserve currency").

The analogue in the fiat economy is gold and the dollar. The US dollar provides day-to-day liquidity - it gets thrown about, traded for goods and services, it's value bobs up and down, loads of it gets printed etc etc. But people do not "park" their savings in the dollar for large lengths of time - they but some asset who's role is more of a store of value than a day to day exchange currency. So it is with bitcoin vs altcoins - just look at the exchanges: they all trade alts against BTC.

For this reason there will always be a need for an alt-coin or two to function as "liquidity agents" for bitcoin. In fact I don't expect to see bitcoin to be used very much in retail, its just to valueable. I expect some other alt coin to take that role in the future.

[2] - TECHNOLOGICAL DIVERSITY

Cryptocurrency technology is so new that we haven't fully explored the strengths and weaknesses of various technological approaches. For that reason alone, coins which diversify the technical properties of Bitcoin will always be candidates for long term growth. The most fundamental diversification is obviously proof or work vs proof of stake. Both have advantages, but they are complimentary approaches in that one covers the other's weaknesses. Bitcoin is heavily dependent on miners in a way that POS is not. It also requires a huge amount of energy to maintain the network. This is a weakness because it gives it a coupling to energy costs.

Its for the second reason that I very much disagree with the OP's citation of Primecoin as one of the "has beens". Primecoin IMO is one of THE most valuable coins on the market at any price. Likeways with Peercoin - these two are created by a development team which put a huge amount of forward thinking into both the technologu and the economics of their use.

Another one which isn't going away anytime soon is NxT. I mention this both because of its high liquidity and technical diversity at the same time. It represents a genuine alternative to the bitcoin network. Although there are criticisms about distribution, these are negligible in relation to its genuine evolutionary advantages - not least the fact that it now has an army of developers building applications for it.

I also don't agree with the OP regarding Quark. This coin has genuine technical diversity, again with liquidity.

So in summary, I agree that most alt coins will drop off the radar fairly quickly, but I don't agree that the concept of "alt coins" is dead.

Andreas Antonopolis puts it best - he says that bitcoin will never be knocked off its pedestal - it has gained too much of a foothold - but that there will be a potential role for "complimentary" currencies in the crypto currency economy.

This is my view as well. By the way if you haven't watched this presentation, it's one of the best I've ever seen regarding the overall 'where we're at with Bitcoin' theme.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTPQKyAq-DM

[toknormal]

By the way....

Since I've been speaking, the Bitcoin price has gone from $580 to $613.

If it gets through this spell of uncertainty - all the upheaval about 'malleability' and everything else - there's a good chance that Bitcoin will be absolutely untouchable.

Its status as 'reserve currency' will be secured. No other coin has gone 'to hell and back' in such a public way as bitcoin has. It's been kicked, flamed, punched, rolled down a mountain side, spat at, stripped naked and attacked by a legion of robotic and human hackers, all without a scratch.

The confidence that will bring I think will be unmatchable.

So if cryptocurrencies go anywhere at all (and don't just die altogether) what that means is two things:

[1] - there will be 3 categories of coins

 - bitcoin (the reserve)
 - liquidity alt coins (like dogue) for spending on gloves in Overstock
 - alternative networks that can do what bitcoin does more cheaply (like NxT, Etherium, PPC XPM etc)

[2] - bitcoin's valuation will be in the 6 to 7 figure range at least

The 2nd one is simply academic. I'm not saying this will happen, I'm just saying that each time bitcoin survives one of these crises, it's harder to see how any other coin could take its place. So IF cryptocurrencies go mainstream, that's the deal.

[Msile]

I still see it as a comptetion. All these shitcoins together create a giant competition, and that competition will create great coins in the future. Coin that are innovative, actually better or just have great way to become popular (DOGE). Imagine a coin that spreads faster than DOGE and is more innovative than Proof of Stake. There will be one, maybe not soon, but there will be one eventually.

[toknormal]

Imagine a coin that spreads faster than DOGE and is more innovative than Proof of Stake. There will be one, maybe not soon, but there will be one eventually

There's a point of diminishing returns for 'technological supremacy'. Coins that appear which are "better" will not necessarily be more popular or more valuable. Once they're good enough to do the job (which Bitcion PPC, XPM etc all are) that will be it. Other things will take precedence like how well supported they are industrially and in the crypto-financial services sector (wallet services, banks, ETF's derivatives, payment processors, etc).

The window for 'technologically superior coins' is closing - if not already closed.

[WompRat]

Andreas Antonopolis puts it best - he says that bitcoin will never be knocked off its pedestal - it has gained too much of a foothold - but that there will be a potential role for "complimentary" currencies in the crypto currency economy.

Bitcoin has quite a large profile considering how few people actually use it.   There are about 2 million users and that quite frankly is optimistic.  This is laughably tiny to seriously talk about network effect. There are knitting social networks that are bigger (Ravelry.com has 3M users).  The ones you have heard of have 100s of millions of users. A company with a well established brand, a small technical team and about $10 million for marketing could probably level the entire altcoin market in an afternoon.

[toknormal]

There are about 2 million users and that quite frankly is optimistic.  This is laughably tiny to seriously talk about network effect

It may be tiny but it's enough and it certainly isn't "laughable" considering what the stakes are.

A knitting network doesn't require an infrastructure of mining facilities, wallet services, exchanges, traders and vendors that takes the best part of 5 years to establish, test and secure. Nor is a knitting network a "high risk investment" where a historical track record makes the difference between you trusting your life's savings to it or running a mile.

If there's one thing people don't like experimenting with it's money. Picture a new investor - not a 'crypto-nerd' but a regular joe who talks to his broker about where to put his hard earned cash. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, he's heard of Bitcoin because he has noted that it's been through "the mill" economically and technologically the last few years and has emerged as the first major cryptocurrency to appear as a tradeable ETF. (ETF's by the way take about 2 or 3 years to get from the drawing board, through all the regulatory red tape and into a market).

What's he going to do ? Put his money into 'this great new crypto that nobody's heard of yet but that is way advanced of Bitcoin technologically ?

No way. Not in a month of Sundays - he's going with the tried, tested and track recorded investment.

Just look at the operating system wars of the 80's for where this is all going - Apple was a generation ahead of MS-DOS but wasn't able to even get near it in terms of market share. Then "Next" was a generation ahead of Apple but couldn't touch it for market share even thouigh Apple was falling to pieces in the hands of Gill Amelio.

So it is with Bitcoin - if it emerges from these crisis, don't expect any contenders to get anywhere near it in valuation. They may in terms of "use" but that doesn't translate into valuation. They are different things as I described above.

[toknormal]

By the way. Since I made that first post about 6 hours ago, Bitcoin has added more than $80 to its valuation. Meanwhile, the spread with Gox is now more than $200. So what does this mean ? It means three things:

[1] - what I said above about "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger" appears to be taking effect sooner than later

[2] - Bitcoin is de-coupling from the "Gox" effect. Gox's price decay is no longer dragging BTC down on other exchanges

[3] - The events of this January and February are probably a "watershed" period in the history of Bitcoin in the sense that it wil now be far harder for any alt coin to ever challenge Bitcoin's supremacy again (other than being a genuine alternative and complimentary cryptocurrency) unless Bitcoin has some internal technology malfunction which is looking less likely now by the week

[Spoetnik]

@markco2

I am not kidding one bit when i say you scare me.. i think you are so delusional i find it shocking and disturbing.
I could sit here and refute everything you said bit by bit by why bother ? Like i just said.. delusional.

Tell ya what i will conced you are right when all sites that have an LTC/BTC address's posted for donations etc
switch over to Doge/BTC instead i will fly to your door and give you all my Bitcoin !
I will also resurrect any dead relatives you may want brought back to life too

I think you must be new to this stuff because you clearly don't know how this all works.. many of us have watched them all come & go..
You need to be re-educated.. i think the Doge cheerleaders brainwashed you and bribed you with much profits and very Laughs..
See the link in my Sig for the cold hard truth.. Why Doge coin is bad.

[WompRat]

By the way. Since I made that first post about 6 hours ago, Bitcoin has added more than $80 to its valuation. Meanwhile, the spread with Gox is now more than $200. So what does this mean ? It means three things:

[1] - what I said above about "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger" appears to be taking effect sooner than later

[2] - Bitcoin is de-coupling from the "Gox" effect. Gox's price decay is no longer dragging BTC down on other exchanges

[3] - The events of this January and February are probably a "watershed" period in the history of Bitcoin in the sense that it wil now be far harder for any alt coin to ever challenge Bitcoin's supremacy again (other than being a genuine alternative and complimentary cryptocurrency) unless Bitcoin has some internal technology malfunction which is looking less likely now by the week

I am not trying to attack bitcoin.  I am just pointing out that the largest coin here, has to my mind, no demonstrable network effect and sadly is not trusted by the public. In comparison altcoins are a flea on a mouse's behind.  I am all for competition, but I fear we are just playing for time.

[toknormal]

I am just pointing out that the largest coin here, has to my mind, no demonstrable network effect and sadly is not trusted by the public

It's your definition of "network effect" in the context of cryptocurrencies that I am challenging.

I don't deny that if you consider "number of users" as a measure of network effect that Bitcoin is minimal. But my point is that number of users is not a very good indicator of how established a cryptocurrency is. You have to look at other things, in particular what role the currency is playing in the cryptocurrency economy.

I would contend that it's far harder to achieve a 'network effect' as a store of value than it is as a medium of exchange and Bitcoin is starting to reach that point. This is largely due to the priority that the exchanges give to it but other things as well such as the massive hashing power that the bitcoin network now has and the amount of time the coin has been around.

These things are a much less volatile and more valuable 'network effect' than number of users. Dogue would probably beat Bitcion on the "users" count but it won't translate into value. Dogue and its like are "liquidity facilitators" - and therefore help Bitcoin by attracting users and investment into the crypto-economy. But Dogue will not be used as a store of value, even if it takes over the world and Amazon and Wallmart accept it.

What I'm ultimately saying is this: The only reason any other cryptocurrency has value is because of Bitcoin. They are all "proxies" for bitcoin, so it doesn't matter which one you invest in as long as it has a conversion to Bitcoin available. When anybody buys an "alt" the value of their investment is measured in BTC. The alt on it's own does not have a value independently of Bitcoin - that's what a 'reserve currency' is.

[bitmadaboutcoin]

What I'm ultimately saying is this: The only reason any other cryptocurrency has value is because of Bitcoin. They are all "proxies" for bitcoin, so it doesn't matter which one you invest in as long as it has a conversion to Bitcoin available. When anybody buys an "alt" the value of their investment is measured in BTC. The alt on it's own does not have a value independently of Bitcoin - that's what a 'reserve currency' is.

not true... Nxt is not a proxy of bitcoin and will surpass bitcoin on so many levels!

[Nullu]

STFU , you've been for 4 pathetic months, wherelse there are people around you that have been here for years mining, selling cryptos and moving with whats happening, and here comes prophet Who gives a fuck with his shitty bold prediction that it's game over. Like the other guy said probably , a little to much coffee  

4 months and yet he already understands the game better than most people do.



I see dead Altcoins.

Walking around like regular Altcoins. They don't see each other. They only see what they want to see. They don't know they're dead.

--

The cold hard truth is that some coins end up just hanging on by its die-hard supporters. I'm not talking about the specific cases he mentions, but all too often do I see dead coins on these boards, and the die-hards hoping and believing that they'll rise once again.

Rule one of investing in my experience is emotional detachment.

Some are rising, some are falling and some are dead and don't even know it. The way it has been and always will be.

[kalus]

I see dead Altcoins.

Walking around like regular Altcoins. They don't see each other. They only see what they want to see. They don't know they're dead.

--

The cold hard truth is that some coins end up just hanging on by its die-hard supporters. I'm not talking about the specific cases he mentions, but all too often do I see dead coins on these boards, and the die-hards hoping and believing that they'll rise once again.

amazing how little research people put into their investments in the first place.  It's also sad reading some of the threads where noone but the biggest bagholders are left in a self-reinforcing circle jerk of optimism.  

objectively, few altcoins today could withstand a 51% attack with a few hundred mh.  the hashrate is spread too thin and the entire altcoin market is far more fragile than investors think there is.  the writing's on the wall but few resist the temptation for a quick buck.  

[Nullu]

I see dead Altcoins.

Walking around like regular Altcoins. They don't see each other. They only see what they want to see. They don't know they're dead.

--

The cold hard truth is that some coins end up just hanging on by its die-hard supporters. I'm not talking about the specific cases he mentions, but all too often do I see dead coins on these boards, and the die-hards hoping and believing that they'll rise once again.

amazing how little research people put into their investments in the first place.  It's also sad reading some of the threads where noone but the biggest bagholders are left in a self-reinforcing circle jerk of optimism.  

objectively, few altcoins today could withstand a 51% attack with a few hundred mh.  the hashrate is spread too thin and the entire altcoin market is far more fragile than investors think there is.  the writing's on the wall but few resist the temptation for a quick buck.  

Yes, I have to agree. You'll see the real money makers on this forum if you look closely enough. They leave when they know the game is up, and move on to the next potential boom before bust coin.

I could literally list ten coins off the top of my head that are dead, right now, being propped up merely by this circle jerk of optimism as you so eloquently put it. Too many people buy into the hype, and then get trapped in a sort of fantasy bubble disconnected from the real world. You have to learn when to let go and move on.

[contraband]

@markco2

I am not kidding one bit when i say you scare me.. i think you are so delusional i find it shocking and disturbing.
I could sit here and refute everything you said bit by bit by why bother ? Like i just said.. delusional.

Tell ya what i will conced you are right when all sites that have an LTC/BTC address's posted for donations etc
switch over to Doge/BTC instead i will fly to your door and give you all my Bitcoin !
I will also resurrect any dead relatives you may want brought back to life too

I think you must be new to this stuff because you clearly don't know how this all works.. many of us have watched them all come & go..
You need to be re-educated.. i think the Doge cheerleaders brainwashed you and bribed you with much profits and very Laughs..
See the link in my Sig for the cold hard truth.. Why Doge coin is bad.

man, you and Doge. IDK
It's in your damn sig

You're freaking me out

You predicted it would be gone long ago
You were wrong then, now you're running around with a "doge is bag" sig, talking about how long you've been around and how you are going fly thru the sky and give away your bitcoins?

IDK but I just got to wonder about who's "delusional"

But since you are going to "resurrect any dead relatives you may want brought back to life", I'll take all four Grandparents, as I see BTC, LTC, DOGE in sigs already AND see DOGE used as LTC is used on Coinedup.


So when you say, "I am not kidding one bit when i say you scare me.. i think you are so delusional i find it shocking and disturbing." believe it is I who is shocked and scared to see someone so freaked out over DOGECOIN

WTF  

[Lauda]

I'd like to see most of them die off.

[Bit_Happy]

Some alt coins will survive, and you do make several good points.
Long-term there could be room for 25, 50, even 100 alts to thrive.

The last four months that I have been on this forum have been a whirlwind of trading and going insane with crypto currencies. It seems I am probably Cryptsy's biggest money generator.

It has been nuts as I have watched a seemingly endless line of crypto currency be announced, mined, dumped, pumped and redumped.

I just opened Crypto-market cap again for the 10000th time http://coinmarketcap.com/

I sorted by market cap and something really hit me. It wasn't that there are now 102 coins on the site and a few months ago there were far less. What blew me away is how pathetically worthless most of the coins on the list are. It is GAME OVER and most communities don't know it. So many of these coins of lost hope have been 10 times higher in the last four months alone. So many were "major coins" at one point and now are worth absolutely nothing and will never be worthy anything EVER.

Megacoin, oh what happened to your 50 million cap!?!?!? Quark the darling of crypto-future a shell of what you once were and dropping like a pre-mined rock. Primecoin!!! oh the great primecoin going nowhere since forever.... Feathercoin oh the humanity!!!, pumped from the cellar to a pathetic 8 million. Ripple, dear God Ripple and its pathetic, pathetic, 73k in volume!!!!!! insert me laughing for an hour, pathetic, pathetic, pathetic.

And yet each has their own straggling communities of desperate hope and lost dignity. These walking-dead communities actually still believe that they will rise to be Bitcoin or even just a small piece of Bitcoin. IT WILL NEVER HAPPPEN. You won't be Bitcoin and what is worse for you is that you won't even be Dogecoin   Watching Kittehcoin try to have any community on Reddit in the face of Dogecoin's tens of thousands is worth a laugh and then a cry.

I wish there was a virtual executioner that would purge the world of these dead coins that only bring shame to their followers.

Good God Franko, Mooncoin, anoncoin, copperlark, RonPaulCoin!!!! i feel guilty just reading your names next to your tiny little market caps. I hope you all just disappear quietly into the virtual night.

[Fernandez]

The smart ones made BTCs of  the boom. There will be more, so get ready.