Who is the dumper on mtgox ?

[silverston]

MtGox should have stopped the trading after seeing this unnatural market movement,
and then resume trading only after withdrawals would resume.

+1

[molecular]

MtGox should have stopped the trading after seeing this unnatural market movement,
and then resume trading only after withdrawals would resume.

+1

mtgox should've stopped the whole company.

what a farce.

[GeniuSxBoY]

If this is what it takes to get solvent again, then I'm for it. I'm not playing with fire and selling because I know that when I do, Gox will announce that they are trading again

[TaaviK]

Everyone who had fiat on Gox and was tempted to buy bitcoins has already bought them. I believe there are very few people left who have fiat on Gox that they sold quite higher and are hoping for it to still go lower to buy in.
What the whale is doing is giving the appearance that the coins really are this cheap on Gox while in reality they are actually not because there is almost noone left to buy them. There are however HODLERS and gullible speculators who are panicing and are induced into selling their coins thinking the price will go even lower. The lower the price goes the bigger the chance that these people will finally sell their coins.

What is actually going on as mentioned many times before is that the whale is selling coins to his own walls and hoping weak hands will panic and sell theirs aswell. He has done it a few times already in the last few days. It started with selling pressure of 20-50 btc batches being sold every 7-10min. This went on for ~24-36h nonstop and then he increased it to 100-300 btc bathes sold every 3-4min because at one point there were people who had fiat on Gox who wanted to buy cheap bitcoins and were creating buying pressure. So the whale compensated and made the situation look even more bleak.

I thought 300 would be the bottom since Gox is probably close to fixing the withdrawals and the whale probably milked people enough these last few days but actually what we are seeing is that the whale is interested in making money and has zero morals to go with it. He is going to milk this community till the very last moment before withdrawals to get as much as possible regardless of the damage to other people or to bitcoin.

If the whale can squeeze in another cycle of this constant selling pressure followed by his walls trying to push the price up again then he will do it. It will probably not happen since a) MtGox will probably fix the withdrawal situation on monday and b) when the banks start working on monday there will be new fiat flying in to buy those cheap coins.

[Peter R]

Everyone who had fiat on Gox and was tempted to buy bitcoins has already bought them. I believe there are very few people left who have fiat on Gox that they sold quite higher and are hoping for it to still go lower to buy in.
What the whale is doing is giving the appearance that the coins really are this cheap on Gox while in reality they are actually not because there is almost noone left to buy them. There are however HODLERS and gullible speculators who are panicing and are induced into selling their coins thinking the price will go even lower. The lower the price goes the bigger the chance that these people will finally sell their coins.

What is actually going on as mentioned many times before is that the whale is selling coins to his own walls and hoping weak hands will panic and sell theirs aswell. He has done it a few times already in the last few days. It started with selling pressure of 20-50 btc batches being sold every 7-10min. This went on for ~24-36h nonstop and then he increased it to 100-300 btc bathes sold every 3-4min because at one point there were people who had fiat on Gox who wanted to buy cheap bitcoins and were creating buying pressure. So the whale compensated and made the situation look even more bleak.

I thought 300 would be the bottom since Gox is probably close to fixing the withdrawals and the whale probably milked people enough these last few days but actually what we are seeing is that the whale is interested in making money and has zero morals to go with it. He is going to milk this community till the very last moment before withdrawals to get as much as possible regardless of the damage to other people or to bitcoin.

If the whale can squeeze in another cycle of this constant selling pressure followed by his walls trying to push the price up again then he will do it. It will probably not happen since a) MtGox will probably fix the withdrawal situation on monday and b) when the banks start working on monday there will be new fiat flying in to buy those cheap coins.

This is a nice theory, but it only works if the whale can buy more cheap coins than he sells into walls that are not his own.  I question whether it is likely that the whale would come out ahead; however, it may explain what we are seeing.

[wbaw]

I think it's robot wars. There was a huge buy at 1:59am, it spiked the price up to 540, i think that triggered some mad robot, or possibly several to sell all their coins.

Must be somebody not in control of a badly written robot doing automatic trades.

I think everybody has already bought all the cheap gox btc so there are not many new buyers to stop it, plus maybe not much new money entering at the weekend.

[TaaviK]

This is a nice theory, but it only works if the whale can buy more cheap coins than he sells into walls that are not his own.  I question whether it is likely that the whale would come out ahead; however, it may explain what we are seeing.

The large majority of the people who speculate are net losers (that's why we have the HODL mantra, since it work so much better for the avg joe than trading).
The more of these cycles of boom and bust on mtGox (since feb 13. - $550 to $300 to $500 to 310 to $540 to $270 to ...) to more money flows from these people to the professional sharks. These people do this for a living. They are very smart and know just the right buttons to push to make the weak tremble and spill because they have been doing it for a long time. And they most probably are colluding aswell.

[Peter R]

This is a nice theory, but it only works if the whale can buy more cheap coins than he sells into walls that are not his own.  I question whether it is likely that the whale would come out ahead; however, it may explain what we are seeing.

The large majority of the people who speculate are net losers (that's why we have the HODL mantra, since it work so much better for the avg joe than trading).
The more of these cycles of boom and bust on mtGox (since feb 13. - $550 to $300 to $500 to 310 to $540 to $270 to ...) to more money flows from these people to the professional sharks. These people do this for a living. They are very smart and know just the right buttons to push to make the weak tremble and spill because they have been doing it for a long time. And they most probably are colluding aswell.

I do see your point, and I'm not saying it's impossible; in fact, it would explain a lot.  But it's just that anyone with fiat at Gox can purchase these cheap coins right now--which means that some of the alleged whale-manipulator's coins are being scooped for a great price by normal traders.  I just find it hard to believe that more people would panic and sell coins for too cheaply, than those that would use this as an opportunity to scoop up cheap coins.  

Anyone about to panic at Gox can check the price at BitStamp

[wbaw]

It's got to be a mad robot, or mark getting really desperate to balance the books somehow (but i can't see that, he could just sell on other exchanges), nobody is really selling btc at $270. I'd loan money to buy if anybody wants to sell me some btc for that, but i don't think i'll get many offers.

Nobody is panicking & the off exchange prices are going up for goxbtc.

[marvinrouge]

With all transfers blocked it the good time for manipulating the price.
For ex. creating an artificial new low.
Anyway everyone are waiting for the bottom to buy, maybe the best way to be sure to catch the bottom is to create it... Even if he loose money today he's sure the market will bounce once the withdrawal restored...

[wbaw]

I think it's somebody with a bot that is manipulating another out of control bot to take all it's coins cheap & not enough people can get money in to buy btc to stop it, they're all already all in goxbtc.

It seemed to be a timed & calculated huge buy that caused a big spike in price that triggered an automatic selloff by messing with the moving averages. It's just some rich but very primitive trading bot that got tricked, or lots of primitive trading bots got tricked.

The gox price wont recover until some fiat deposits are allowed in or fiat withdrawals cancelled.

Somebody is going to be really annoyed when they see what their trading bot did while they weren't looking & somebody is going to be really happy with all the cheap coins they got.

It hasn't had any effect on any other exchanges, yet. Wonder what will happen when gox allow btc withdrawals.

Unless the seller knows some kind of inside information they just lost big.

[Cluster2k]

It looks like someone is betting MtGox is more likely to return cash than bitcoins.  Good luck, as MtGox has had trouble returning cash over the past 7 months. 

Betting on getting bitcoins out could be a little risky.  We don't know how many, if any, bitcoins have been stolen from MtGox.  The exchange was a prime target for the forged transaction bug and we do know MtGox had trouble with the bug for many weeks.  SR 2.0 claims their entire stash of bitcoins was stolen by a handful of people using automated refunds. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2014/02/13/silk-road-2-0-hacked-using-bitcoin-bug-all-its-funds-stolen/

At the moment there are lots of claims and counter claims about what can be done using the bug. 

[indiemax]

My guess is that people with BTC on Mt. Gox now believe that they are more likely to be able to withdraw dollars than BTC. I think that the belief is that some amount of BTC is missing and the dollars can be audited and recovered if Mt. Gox closes, and the BTC can't. I don't know if any of that is true. It is just an educated guess.

Exactly this  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[600watt]

someone has found a way, always had, or is just been granted to move fiat out of gox.

this person knows that gox is going belly up. so this is a "legal" way to squeeze out all the left cash on gox.


monday they say: uuups, it´s all gone, sry    


 

[oetzi]

Mtgox has unlimited credit in both dollars and bitcoins (they can assign to themselves as many as they whish), and this can drive any ascent or descent prices.
Now they are on the edge of bankrupcy, so they are interested in cutting the capitalization of the exchange, in order to have the least number of dollars and bitcoins to refund.
Enough to orchestrate any actions of pumping or dumping of unlimited size in such a way that, at the end, the best trader and the largest owner of USD and BTC, is Mtgox itself.

[proudhon]

My guess is that people with BTC on Mt. Gox now believe that they are more likely to be able to withdraw dollars than BTC. I think that the belief is that some amount of BTC is missing and the dollars can be audited and recovered if Mt. Gox closes, and the BTC can't. I don't know if any of that is true. It is just an educated guess.

Exactly this  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

My guess is a combination of what odolvlobo described and perhaps another attempt at a June 2011 style hackcrash.  But, who knows at this point.  The nice thing, for those without anything on MtGox (sorry guys), is that MtGox is trading in GoxUSD and GoxBTC, and those are just different things than USD and BTC.

[Cyberlight]

[GreenDude]

Someone selling to himself to make it look downtrend so noobs sell to him at this ridiculous prices.

[600watt]

Mtgox has unlimited credit in both dollars and bitcoins (they can assign to themselves as many as they whish), and this can drive any ascent or descent prices.
Now they are on the edge of bankrupcy, so they are interested in cutting the capitalization of the exchange, in order to have the least number of dollars and bitcoins to refund.
Enough to orchestrate any actions of pumping or dumping of unlimited size in such a way that, at the end, the best trader and the largest owner of USD and BTC, is Mtgox itself.

this.

[marvinrouge]

I think it's robot wars. There was a huge buy at 1:59am, it spiked the price up to 540, i think that triggered some mad robot, or possibly several to sell all their coins.

Must be somebody not in control of a badly written robot doing automatic trades.

I think everybody has already bought all the cheap gox btc so there are not many new buyers to stop it, plus maybe not much new money entering at the weekend.

It could be.
I have a homemade bot which after excellents result this month gave me yesterday two advices :
Buy @504  
Sell @285  

Luckily for me it was only simulated