Who is the dumper on mtgox ?

[T.Stuart]

I think it's Satoshi.

He's had enough of Gox tarnishing the reputation of Bitcoin and he's going to grind it into the dirt.

[wbaw]

Another possible option is somebody had a huge bet based on the goxbtc price at some derivative market & gained more from shorting than they lost tanking the price.

[rpietila]

Another possible option is somebody had a huge bet based on the goxbtc price at some derivative market & gained more from shorting than they lost tanking the price.

Now we are talking..

[T.Stuart]

Another possible option is somebody had a huge bet based on the goxbtc price at some derivative market & gained more from shorting than they lost tanking the price.

Now we are talking..

Perhaps they also wanted to buy cheap coins after their bet went well.

Bloody whales.

[Bitobsessed]

Mtgox has unlimited credit in both dollars and bitcoins (they can assign to themselves as many as they whish), and this can drive any ascent or descent prices.
Now they are on the edge of bankrupcy, so they are interested in cutting the capitalization of the exchange, in order to have the least number of dollars and bitcoins to refund.
Enough to orchestrate any actions of pumping or dumping of unlimited size in such a way that, at the end, the best trader and the largest owner of USD and BTC, is Mtgox itself.

this.

And to keep some people from selling they have manipulated the price after Mark sold his...

[martins]

easily done by a mt.gox operator who has control over BTC's of theyr user, sell @BTC-e and get the money to rebuy @MT.gox... dont need a brilliant brain to do this just POWER!

[fluidjax]

Perhaps these moves are all to reduce liability once (if) declared insolvent, so the BTC price redistributed to holders will be cents on the dollar value of the last traded price when the exchange is declared closed.
So they sell these worthless BTC to everyone and stash the cash,
Getting as much $ as possible in effectively the Gox Bank account and reducing the price of BTC close to 0 is the best strategy for them.

[fallinglantern]

What would you do if you had 200 BTC stuck on GOX?

Fly to Tokyo from London and protest Mark's coffee-like desserts?

[MatTheCat]

presumably because Gox has temporarily halted BTC withdrawals, a whole bunch of paranoids are selling their coins so they can withdraw the fiat instead. A panic sell off of BTC = massive price drop on Gox. I don't think there's anything more sinister than that going on - unless you can prove it?

Q) Weren't you the fkn clown who was telling everyone that Gox was just fine and that people shouldn't panic back when Gox was trading in high $500s?

A) Yes, you were! Don't say you weren't because your post history says that you were.


I say Karpeles is using an unlimited supply of Goxcoin which of course passes seamlessly for Bitcoin (on the MTGox exchange at least), in order to manipulate the price down as he takes real ledger authenticated Bitcoin off the table. Unbelievably, new money is piling into Gox and buying up Goxcoin thus pushing up the price.....all the better for Karpeles!

After MtGox goes under and Karpeles 'proves' that it did so as a result of cyber-theft from external parties, I say Karpeles will flee Japan and buy up a Vietnamese orphanage next to a doughnut factory, where he will happily live out the rest of his wretched creepy existence.  

I think it's Satoshi.

He's had enough of Gox tarnishing the reputation of Bitcoin and he's going to grind it into the dirt.

"Oh save us, mightiest of Bitcoin whales!"

Another possible option is somebody had a huge bet based on the goxbtc price at some derivative market & gained more from shorting than they lost tanking the price.

Shrewd thinking. But who would be dumb enough to take the opposite end of such a contract when such an unfavourable outcome could be so easily manipulated by the right/wrong sort of people?

[Puppet]

Everyone who had fiat on Gox and was tempted to buy bitcoins has already bought them.

Are euro/dollar deposits not working then?  At $250, am I the only one who thinks this is a good bet?

Im not exactly a fan of Gox, but I honestly cant imagine them being bankrupt or even insolvent. Gox charges like 0.5% on average, correct? And have been collecting this for over 4 years now. I mean, just today of all days, gox earned around 0.5% * 81K BTC= 405 BTC in fees. Thats $250K worth of coins on other exchanges. Over the past four years that on the order of half a million bitcoins in trading fees. Even if they kept the vast majority of their profit in BTC (which is unlikely), do we really think they are stupid enough to keep more than a trivial amount of that in a hot wallet that someone could steal?

[fluidjax]

Everyone who had fiat on Gox and was tempted to buy bitcoins has already bought them.

Are euro/dollar deposits not working then?  At $250, am I the only one who thinks this is a good bet?

Im not exactly a fan of Gox, but I honestly cant imagine them being bankrupt or even insolvent. Gox charges like 0.5% on average, correct? And have been collecting this for over 4 years now. I mean, just today of all days, gox earned around 0.5% * 81K BTC= 405 BTC in fees. Thats $250K worth of coins on other exchanges. Over the past four years that on the order of half a million bitcoins in trading fees. Even if they kept the vast majority of their profit in BTC (which is unlikely), do we really think they are stupid enough to keep more than a trivial amount of that in a hot wallet that someone could steal?

Company profit can simply be withdrawn as a dividend by the shareholders. Gox may be sitting on zero or negative money.

[Puppet]

Company profit can simply be withdrawn as a dividend by the shareholders. Gox may be sitting on zero or negative money.

Doesnt really matter. Even if gox were close to insolvency somehow, say its hot wallet got raided and it would have no reserves beyond that, which seems utterly unbelievable, even then its (by now, stinking rich) shareholders would be bonkers not to supply it with fresh dollars/coins. $250K revenue a day to run a few servers and pay what, less than 10 staff? Only a complete idiot would let that go bankrupt.

[alfabitcoin]

Make that average 1%. When sell occur buy happen also. So 2 x 0.5%.

[molecular]

My guess is that people with BTC on Mt. Gox now believe that they are more likely to be able to withdraw dollars than BTC. I think that the belief is that some amount of BTC is missing and the dollars can be audited and recovered if Mt. Gox closes, and the BTC can't. I don't know if any of that is true. It is just an educated guess.

Exactly this  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

My guess is a combination of what odolvlobo described and perhaps another attempt at a June 2011 style hackcrash.  But, who knows at this point.  The nice thing, for those without anything on MtGox (sorry guys), is that MtGox is trading in GoxUSD and GoxBTC, and those are just different things than USD and BTC.

While this is true from a rational perspective, gox is still pulling the other markets because (yet again rational) players anticipate the induced "irrational" selling.

The question now is: when to go long?

• when gox re-enables withdrawals (or preferrably shortly before that)
• when resulting arbitrage has played out and pulled other markets down
• now

[T.Stuart]

The question now is: when to go long?

• when gox re-enables withdrawals (or preferrably shortly before that)
• when resulting arbitrage has played out and pulled other markets down
• now

Tomorrow morning, 9 am. 

[molecular]

Everyone who had fiat on Gox and was tempted to buy bitcoins has already bought them.

Are euro/dollar deposits not working then?  At $250, am I the only one who thinks this is a good bet?

Im not exactly a fan of Gox, but I honestly cant imagine them being bankrupt or even insolvent.

I'm torn here myself. Left gox April or so last year. Greed is getting the best of me, though and I'm close to wiring EUR.

The market tells us it's a bad bet, though. Risk is extreme in any case.

[molecular]

The question now is: when to go long?

• when gox re-enables withdrawals (or preferrably shortly before that)
• when resulting arbitrage has played out and pulled other markets down
• now

Tomorrow morning, 9 am. 

Information incomplete. Timezone missing.

[T.Stuart]

The question now is: when to go long?

• when gox re-enables withdrawals (or preferrably shortly before that)
• when resulting arbitrage has played out and pulled other markets down
• now

Tomorrow morning, 9 am. 

Information incomplete. Timezone missing.

Intentional!

[efarah2549]

I voted manipulator. Before the dumps there was a spike from 380$ to 540$, probably
the manipulator bought his own coins, and then sold them to create downward momentum.
MtGox should have stopped the trading after seeing this unnatural market movement,
and then resume trading only after withdrawals would resume.

MT Gox should of done so much awhile ago but realistically they are not like legitimate companies.  A proper business looking to be profitable in the future and retain customers would not act with so much disregard.  Mt Gox has put in little to no effort to solve this problem or calm the community so I have little hope in them ever doing anything.  In my mind gox will go to 0 and probably the rest of the community is dumb enough to follow meaning I've lost all my money because it seems I was the only one stupid enough to believe in bitcoin

[Mota]

I voted manipulator. Before the dumps there was a spike from 380$ to 540$, probably
the manipulator bought his own coins, and then sold them to create downward momentum.
MtGox should have stopped the trading after seeing this unnatural market movement,
and then resume trading only after withdrawals would resume.

MT Gox should of done so much awhile ago but realistically they are not like legitimate companies.  A proper business looking to be profitable in the future and retain customers would not act with so much disregard.  Mt Gox has put in little to no effort to solve this problem or calm the community so I have little hope in them ever doing anything.  In my mind gox will go to 0 and probably the rest of the community is dumb enough to follow meaning I've lost all my money because it seems I was the only one stupid enough to believe in bitcoin

*should have
and why should they have acted differently? they ARE an exchange, so if they let people exchange they do exactly as they should. If people panicsell after an announcement that btc withdrawal has stopped it is not their problem. Or do you see any normal exchange halt trading/put a notice out/try to calm people because a particular stock or some mayor index seems to crash to the bottom?