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Author Topic: Why do people trust Locust and Tenebrix?  (Read 2898 times)
ripper234
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October 08, 2011, 01:09:00 AM
 #1

Well, the market has spoken (for now), and Tenebrix is the top alternative currency with a 1.16% of the entire Bitcoin market cap. I believe this number does represent a faith by "the market" that Tenebrix as a whole is worth that much.

What I don't get is why people trust Locust (with 90% of TBX pre-mined) to really use these coins as he advertises (bounties & laundry). I'm not saying that I have specific concerns or complains about him, but I don't understand where the positive trust is coming from. Does he have any credentials other than a two-month post history on Bitcoin Talk? If yes, I would very much love to see his references.

I know many do not yet trust him and Tenebrix, but "the market" obviously does. Is it just lack of better alternatives, and a hatred of Bitcoin early adopters? If it's a desire for alternatives, why not Namecoin? Isn't it just a better (more feature rich) Bitcoin? Namecoin merged mining is just 5 blocks away (happens at block 19200)...

FYI, I currently only hold Bitcoin, do not hold Namecoin, TBX, or any other alt.

P.S.
Not that I think "The Market" is infallible or something. After all, it thinks 1 BTC is only worth 4.3 USD, while I won't sell for less than 40 right now.

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October 08, 2011, 01:20:46 AM
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why not Namecoin?

Now that I think of it, Namecoin does't have a GUI yet, and this might explain the lack of jumpers.
There only UI for Namecoin is MultiCoin, which is a bit difficult to download a binary for (the "project page" of www.multicoin.net is just a redirect to a forum thread).

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October 08, 2011, 01:22:26 AM
 #3

Why are people dumb ?
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October 08, 2011, 01:28:06 AM
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@Ripper

Simply because it doesn't matter if Lolcust has 7 million coins or not, his holdings do not effect the value of any other holder.

So what, he has 7 million coins.

~BCX~

I believe they do. Suppose the following:

1. Locust is an evil dude.
2. Tenebrix will become a raging success in the next few months, and its market cap will be 10% of Bitcoin (merely a X8 increase from now).
3. Tenebrix exchanges will have a large order book with a lot of sell orders.
4. Locust sells all his pre-mined coins at once ... profit (for him), loss for everyone else that invested in the currency.

He promises not to do this, but why do people trust his promises?

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October 08, 2011, 01:42:50 AM
 #5

The TBX market cap is woefully inflated by those 7.7m coins.
You need to subtract them to get the true market cap.

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October 08, 2011, 01:45:07 AM
 #6


1. Locust is an evil dude.
2. Tenebrix will become a raging success in the next few months, and its market cap will be 10% of Bitcoin (merely a X8 increase from now).
3. Tenebrix exchanges will have a large order book with a lot of sell orders.
4. Locust sells all his pre-mined coins at once ... profit (for him), loss for everyone else that invested in the currency.

He promises not to do this, but why do people trust his promises?

What you say is "evil"

What you mean is "batshit insane"

I may very well be evil and eat babies. But as long as I am a long-term planning agent that is rational enough (note, not perfect-rational, just rational enough) not to prefer unpredictable probability of unpredictable short-term gain over systematic, fairly predictable,  gain arriving automatically (that is, without much repeated efforts on my part) at a steady pace, I can be trusted not to abuse the funds and safekeep the laundry like the glorious jewel it is (okay, technically, will be)

You do know that several people are already auto-watching my fun-ds in blockexplorer, and should anything fishy (like an attempt to move stuff to exchange) happen, will raise a shriek and cause a panicsell ? (that's why I warned folks about beginning of funding of faucet on the main page, so auto-watchers don't misinterpret my actions)


I'm not saying that I have specific concerns or complains about him, but I don't understand where the positive trust is coming from. Does he have any credentials other than a two-month post history on Bitcoin Talk? If yes, I would very much love to see his references.

My references are, basically, enlightened self-interest. As long as there are no reasons to believe that I will act against the interests of myself and my laundry enterprise by engaging in risky and potentially devastating games , there are no reasons to distrust my claims.

You don't need to believe I am a nice person, only not irrational one.

I know many do not yet trust him and Tenebrix, but "the market" obviously does.

Markets are like that *shrug*

Is it just lack of better alternatives, and a hatred of Bitcoin early adopters?

I don't really get how hatred for early adopters translates in trust towards me. Could you clarify this line of reasoning ?


P.S.
Not that I think "The Market" is infallible or something. After all, it thinks 1 BTC is only worth 4.3 USD, while I won't sell for less than 40 right now.

That's their current market value.

Your subjective valuation is 40 USD.

There is no such thing as "real proper value" so your claim that market is being "wrong" seems rather...audacious.

P.S.:
Anyways, I think this has been discussed quite for some time in the main thread.

No need to make yet another Lolcust thread, I'm starting to feel shy Wink

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October 08, 2011, 02:15:06 AM
 #7

The TBX market cap is woefully inflated by those 7.7m coins.
You need to subtract them to get the true market cap.

Yes, if the premined coins are indeed kept off the market, then they should not be counted in the market cap. But he plans to give out or spend some of those. Once they are given out as a bounty, the price will probably drop like a rock.

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October 08, 2011, 02:35:08 AM
 #8

My answer?
I don't trust Lolcust, or anybody else on this forum, to do anything but act in their own best interest.
In this situation Lolcust's best interest is for TBX to grow huge.  Whether he wants that because it's his baby or because it has to be significantly larger before he can sneakily dump a few thousand coins I neither know nor care, as it makes no difference to me current trust of him nor to my plans.

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October 08, 2011, 09:01:39 AM
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My answer?
I don't trust Lolcust, or anybody else on this forum, to do anything but act in their own best interest.
In this situation Lolcust's best interest is for TBX to grow huge.  Whether he wants that because it's his baby or because it has to be significantly larger before he can sneakily dump a few thousand coins I neither know nor care, as it makes no difference to me current trust of him nor to my plans.

OK, so the investors in TBX think that it is in Locust's best interest to do as he said. Let's analyze that for a second.

Currently TBX is all the rage. But, what if at some point in the near future, Locust thinks, for whatever reason, that TBX doesn't have a promising future. Perhaps a new GPU method comes up to calculating TBX, and he can't seem to figure out a way to defeat it. Or perhaps the current prices are a bubble, and Locust uses his crystal ball to predict a significant crash. What-ever.

If Locust loses faith in his own currency's future, then it would be rational for him to sell off his entire stash. Even though his stash is monitored, he could sell everything off in 1 second before anyone has any chance to do anything about it. He cashes out completely, and TBX crashes ... completely.

This is not a fatal flaw in TBX that cannot be fixed. The fix is very easy - crash it now. If Locust sell 90% of his stash on the market, or otherwise donated it, then sure, TBX would crash now, but it wouldn't have this huge hammer hanging over its head.

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October 08, 2011, 09:07:43 AM
 #10

My answer?
I don't trust Lolcust, or anybody else on this forum, to do anything but act in their own best interest.
In this situation Lolcust's best interest is for TBX to grow huge.  Whether he wants that because it's his baby or because it has to be significantly larger before he can sneakily dump a few thousand coins I neither know nor care, as it makes no difference to me current trust of him nor to my plans.

OK, so the investors in TBX think that it is in Locust's best interest to do as he said. Let's analyze that for a second.

Currently TBX is all the rage. But, what if at some point in the near future, Locust thinks, for whatever reason, that TBX doesn't have a promising future. Perhaps a new GPU method comes up to calculating TBX, and he can't seem to figure out a way to defeat it. Or perhaps the current prices are a bubble, and Locust uses his crystal ball to predict a significant crash. What-ever.

If Locust loses faith in his own currency's future, then it would be rational for him to sell off his entire stash. Even though his stash is monitored, he could sell everything off in 1 second before anyone has any chance to do anything about it. He cashes out completely, and TBX crashes ... completely.

This is not a fatal flaw in TBX that cannot be fixed. The fix is very easy - crash it now. If Locust sell 90% of his stash on the market, or otherwise donated it, then sure, TBX would crash now, but it wouldn't have this huge hammer hanging over its head.

So, now you're paining an apocalyptic future that is so dire that even I no longer believe in any perspective for TBX?

You do realize that should something so dire indeed happen, everyone would be running away likely before I even get the memo (let alone prep fund for sale, since no exchange accepts 0 conf), and I won't have anyone to sell the millyoonz to ?

Basically, at the point at which you postulate that "Locust loses faith in his own currency's future", Lolcust already has no one to sell to, since Lolcust isn't privy to any unique insider info and every single investor and trader sees the same doom and gloom on the horizon that has struck Lolcust so deeply, but by virtue of having funds already at exchange has already beat Lolcust to the exit thus crashing value to "shit pies" long before the slow, ponderous mass of Lolcustfund even starts moving to an exchange 

With all due respect, you are contriving more and more intricate and implausible scenarios to provide, essentially, ethically motivated complaint with a veneer of economic plausibility (a veneer which is rather irrelevant since the market has already demonstrated that it doesn't give a single rat's ass about my premine)

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October 08, 2011, 09:08:56 AM
 #11

The TBX market cap is woefully inflated by those 7.7m coins.
You need to subtract them to get the true market cap.

I'm not sure that is correct. All the people buying now are buying with the knowledge of these 7.7m coins. If it's public information, then I think these coins should be counted in the market cap.

However, there is one other qualification - the total number of BUY orders are 1653 BTC = 0.02% of the number of Bitcoins. Market cap doesn't tell the whole story.

If I invented RipperCoin tomorrow, pre-mined a million coins, and put a few buy/sell orders around 10 BTC, does this mean I've created 10,000,000 BTC's worth of RipperCoin out of thin air? No it doesn't.

If anyone has a suggestion for more measurements of a currencies' "strength", please let me know so I can put them on Bitcoin Pie. I think the next up is the total amount of BUY orders in BTC.

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October 08, 2011, 09:18:16 AM
 #12

So, now you're paining an apocalyptic future that is so dire that even I no longer believe in any perspective for TBX?

You do realize that should something so dire indeed happen, everyone has left already (except those asleep at the steering wheel), and I won't have anyone to sell the millyoonz to ?

Basically, at the point at which you postulate that "Locust loses faith in his own currency's future", Lolcust already has no one to sell to, since Lolcust isn't privy to any unique insider info and every single investor and trades sees the same doom and gloom on the horizon that has struck Lolcust so deeply ?

1. You do have insider information. You are most intimate with TBX code, perhaps along with a few other people. I'm sure it is far less scrutinized than the Bitcoin source code. Since you're the developer, you know exactly what TBX can and cannot do. While in theory the code is open source so everybody can know as much as you, in practice this knowledge might take a long time to get out there, simply because most won't read or fully understand the code. With Bitcoin it took about three years for the "insider information" Satoshi had to fully leak its way into public awareness ... and (I hope) we're not there yet, and that the public will become more and more aware of Bitcoin's "real/potential worth".

2. Even if you didn't have insider information, bubble do burst. If you see the value of TBX going down because "everybody is realizing its a bubble", you would have a vested interested in doing the same because you would be realizing it's a bubble as well. You currently own a theoretical $364,000 of TBX, you surely have an interest to save it if the market thinks it's going to crash.

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October 08, 2011, 09:29:38 AM
 #13

So, now you're paining an apocalyptic future that is so dire that even I no longer believe in any perspective for TBX?

You do realize that should something so dire indeed happen, everyone has left already (except those asleep at the steering wheel), and I won't have anyone to sell the millyoonz to ?

Basically, at the point at which you postulate that "Locust loses faith in his own currency's future", Lolcust already has no one to sell to, since Lolcust isn't privy to any unique insider info and every single investor and trades sees the same doom and gloom on the horizon that has struck Lolcust so deeply ?

1. You do have insider information. You are most intimate with TBX code, perhaps along with a few other people.

Cthulhu almighty in the seas, it's open-source so it would take you a few clicks to become as privy to the code as me, ArtForz, or any other curious individual.

Anyone who bothers to read the source gets as much "inside" as me (actually, given that I'm not even a programmer, a coder would likely get more insider info than me)

Since you're the developer, you know exactly what TBX can and cannot do. While in theory the code is open source so everybody can know as much as you, in practice this knowledge might take a long time to get out there, simply because most won't read or fully understand the code.


Dear lord Cthulhu, I really don't want to sound mean or something, but did you read first post?

I am not "TBX Leader" and definitely not a Master Programmer or "The Developer"

50% is Multicoin, 45% ArtForz.

Whatever left (Like, logo, smalltime user support, the "general" idea itself, negotiating with exchanges, the name, etc.) are my contributions.

Also, there are some contributions from pidgeons and twobits that might be not large by volume, but are pretty vital

If anyone, ArtForz is the "inside info" guy, I am a graphic designer with a pile of ideas I decided to go through with.

2. Even if you didn't have insider information, bubble do burst. If you see the value of TBX going down because "everybody is realizing its a bubble", you would have a vested interested in doing the same because you would be realizing it's a bubble as well.

You do realize that by the time I grok the fact that it's dying, everyone on the exchange has already sold off and everyone not on the exchange are on their way to exchange?

By the time my ponderous mass of TBX reaches an exchange, everyone of impact has gone already.

I'll inevitably be beaten to the exit by every single trader and even the trader's paraplegic grandmother.

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October 08, 2011, 09:30:02 AM
 #14

What you say is "evil"

What you mean is "batshit insane"

I may very well be evil and eat babies. But as long as I am a long-term planning agent that is rational enough (note, not perfect-rational, just rational enough) not to prefer unpredictable probability of unpredictable short-term gain over systematic, fairly predictable,  gain arriving automatically (that is, without much repeated efforts on my part) at a steady pace, I can be trusted not to abuse the funds and safekeep the laundry like the glorious jewel it is (okay, technically, will be)

You do know that several people are already auto-watching my fun-ds in blockexplorer, and should anything fishy (like an attempt to move stuff to exchange) happen, will raise a shriek and cause a panicsell ? (that's why I warned folks about beginning of funding of faucet on the main page, so auto-watchers don't misinterpret my actions)

Not good enough. If you decide to really sell out, those people will just watch your dust. You can sell off everything in a split second.



My references are, basically, enlightened self-interest. As long as there are no reasons to believe that I will act against the interests of myself and my laundry enterprise by engaging in risky and potentially devastating games , there are no reasons to distrust my claims.

You don't need to believe I am a nice person, only not irrational one.

When I sold my (very minor) Bond-RonGross, I gave enough credible information to identify me.
See my arguments why it might be rational for you to sell off everything at some point in the future. If you provided other credentials (even outside of meat-space, but just 'convincing enough'), that would make people (me, at least) more relaxed that you will follow your plan for TBX. Any particular reason not to provide such credentials? I can understand why Satoshi stays hidden, his idea is a real breakthrough that will collapse whole organizations (banking, paypal, etc...), so he should very well stay hidden to avoid persecution. I don't think TBX is innovative on that caliber, so even if successful, people won't hire assassins to kill you. I hope.


I don't really get how hatred for early adopters translates in trust towards me. Could you clarify this line of reasoning ?

Easy. People hate the fact Bitcoin early adopters "got rich" or "will get rich", so they seek an alternative. SolidCoin isn't really an alternative (The IRC chat between CoinHunter and Gavin showed that to a lot of people). NameCoin isn't well developed yet. Basically TBX is the only alternative I'm aware of that has an exchange and a GUI client. So those early-adopter-haters flock to TBX. Why doesn't FBX have an exchange yet? I might buy in if it did.


P.S.
Not that I think "The Market" is infallible or something. After all, it thinks 1 BTC is only worth 4.3 USD, while I won't sell for less than 40 right now.

That's their current market value.

Your subjective valuation is 40 USD.

There is no such thing as "real proper value" so your claim that market is being "wrong" seems rather...audacious.

Not really. Everyone buying or selling any stock or commodity is basically say that the market is wrong at the current price level. If I buy Google stocks at whatever price, it's because I think they will be worth more tomorrow ... in effect, they're worth more now to me than the market believes.

P.S.:
Anyways, I think this has been discussed quite for some time in the main thread.

No need to make yet another Lolcust thread, I'm starting to feel shy Wink

This thread was mostly aimed at other people, not yourself - I want to get their thoughts on why they trust you. The other thread is too long, and is the announcement thread, thus being a little bit too general for my taste.

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October 08, 2011, 09:31:33 AM
 #15

I wouldn't put too much faith in the "Manipulated Market", you must remember artforz and co have a fair amount of BTC that they are propping up the market with in an attempt to run a bigger scam. When the market opened they placed a buy order for 2 million coins for instance when only 400K were available (non premined). They have no morals and when it finally gets 51% attacked or the premined coins are spent a convenient excuse will be made.

artforz/lolcust/bitcoinexpress have questionable morals, no one who is reasonable would disagree. However there are enough warnings out there for the people who will end up losing in this, so they have no one to blame but themselves I think.

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October 08, 2011, 09:31:41 AM
 #16

What if Satoshi Nakamoto sold his premined coins? It would be just the same...
You can't trust anyone...
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October 08, 2011, 09:36:16 AM
 #17

What if Satoshi Nakamoto sold his premined coins? It would be just the same...
You can't trust anyone...

x2

Well said.

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October 08, 2011, 09:43:29 AM
 #18

Not good enough. If you decide to really sell out, those people will just watch your dust. You can sell off everything in a split second.

Now that is just plain wrong on a factual level

Please let me know how do I magically sell coins faster than an exchange confirms incoming fund transfer (it's pretty trivial to see that stuff is not on exchange) which with 5 min/block is definitely not a split second.

No offense, but you seem to be glossing over vital technical details, hopefully unintentionally.

   Any particular reason not to provide such credentials?

Ever heard of Republic of Belarus?


I can understand why Satoshi stays hidden, his idea is a real breakthrough that will collapse whole organizations (banking, paypal, etc...), so he should very well stay hidden to avoid persecution. I don't think TBX is innovative on that caliber, so even if successful, people won't hire assassins to kill you. I hope.

So... you both believe that bitcoin will destroy "classic" banking (and paypalbomination), and you think that multi-billion companies are petty enough to hire hitmen to seek vengeance upon Satoshi (an act that would only make BTC more popular, and make them somewhat less popular)?

I am afraid our worldviews diverge quite radically... And that makes finding common ground harder Sad



Easy. People hate the fact Bitcoin early adopters "got rich" or "will get rich", so they seek an alternative. SolidCoin isn't really an alternative (The IRC chat between CoinHunter and Gavin showed that to a lot of people). NameCoin isn't well developed yet. Basically TBX is the only alternative I'm aware of that has an exchange and a GUI client

So by your logic they hate system with phat first-adopters so much that they move to a system with even phatter first-adopters ?

Well, IMHO that makes no sense.

But then, IMHO, neither does first-adopter hate so there is a probability you have unique insight into that mindset.




Not really. Everyone buying or selling any stock or commodity is basically say that the market is wrong at the current price level. If I buy Google stocks at whatever price, it's because I think they will be worth more tomorrow ... in effect, they're worth more now to me than the market believes

Well, markets are just so designed that they inherently sorta-kinda with  current value (there are ways around, like shorting, but they still hinge on current value+agent's belief about future) Smiley

Market isn't wrong, it's just stating that current value is X. If you believe that circumstances will force it to reconsider at a later date, you can act accordingly, but at this moment, market isn't wrong - market is never really "wrong" or "right". Market simply is Smiley

What if Satoshi Nakamoto sold his premined coins? It would be just the same...
You can't trust anyone...

Satoshi didn't pre-mine, but he mined quite a bunch and likely holds a very big (if not the biggest) of market-crash capable BTC stash. Not that I mind Cheesy



I wouldn't put too much faith in the "Manipulated Market", you must remember artforz and co have a fair amount of BTC that they are propping up the market with in an attempt to run a bigger scam. When the market opened they placed a buy order for 2 million coins for instance when only 400K were available (non premined). They have no morals and when it finally gets 51% attacked or the premined coins are spent a convenient excuse will be made.

artforz/lolcust/bitcoinexpress have questionable morals, no one who is reasonable would disagree. However there are enough warnings out there for the people who will end up losing in this, so they have no one to blame but themselves I think.

Peer 2 Pig market is so un-manipulated...

Geist Geld, the experimental cryptocurrency, is ready for yet another SolidCoin collapse Wink

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October 08, 2011, 09:44:38 AM
 #19

Well, the market has spoken (for now), and Tenebrix is the top alternative currency with a 1.16% of the entire Bitcoin market cap. I believe this number does represent a faith by "the market" that Tenebrix as a whole is worth that much.

What I don't get is why people trust Locust (with 90% of TBX pre-mined) to really use these coins as he advertises (bounties & laundry). I'm not saying that I have specific concerns or complains about him, but I don't understand where the positive trust is coming from. Does he have any credentials other than a two-month post history on Bitcoin Talk? If yes, I would very much love to see his references.

I know many do not yet trust him and Tenebrix, but "the market" obviously does. Is it just lack of better alternatives, and a hatred of Bitcoin early adopters? If it's a desire for alternatives, why not Namecoin? Isn't it just a better (more feature rich) Bitcoin? Namecoin merged mining is just 5 blocks away (happens at block 19200)...

FYI, I currently only hold Bitcoin, do not hold Namecoin, TBX, or any other alt.

P.S.
Not that I think "The Market" is infallible or something. After all, it thinks 1 BTC is only worth 4.3 USD, while I won't sell for less than 40 right now.

+1 to this entire thread. There's always fairbrix though..

If my post helped, I'll happily accept a few bitmills!   15rGg6A1JFZV3b7TTbtpAaiYGdUD1e1oAm
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Ron Gross


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October 08, 2011, 09:51:04 AM
 #20

Cthulhu almighty in the seas, it's open-source so it would take you a few clicks to become as privy to the code as me, ArtForz, or any other curious individual.

Anyone who bothers to read the source gets as much "inside" as me (actually, given that I'm not even a programmer, a coder would likely get more insider info than me)

In theory yes. In practice I don't have the time to devote to reading TBX source code. Hell, I haven't taken a peek at Bitcoin source code since I heard about it six months ago. I'm sure many people are in my boat, and a lot of them even can't read code.

Dear lord Cthulhu, I really don't want to sound mean or something, but did you read first post?

Proof you're evil = you keep praying to Cthulhu Smiley

I am not "TBX Leader" and definitely not a Master Programmer or "The Developer"

50% is Multicoin, 45% ArtForz.

Whatever left (Like, logo, smalltime user support, the "general" idea itself, negotiating with exchanges, the name, etc.) are my contributions.

Also, there are some contributions from pidgeons and twobits that might be not so large by volume, but pretty vital

If anyone, ArtForz is the "inside info" guy, I am a graphic designer with a pile of ideas I decided to go through with.


And a pile of coins. The fact is that these are just words, and they don't convey enough trust, at least for me. What I was trying to understand is why it seems they do work on other people.

You do realize that by the time I grok the fact that it's dying, everyone on the exchange has already sold off and everyone not on the exchange are on their way to exchange?

By the time my ponderous mass of TBX reaches an exchange, everyone of impact has gone already.

I'll inevitably be beaten to the exit by every single trader and even the trader's paraplegic grandmother.

I don't understand why this is true. But let's try to stop this ping-pong, this thread was aimed at other people. Of course you trust yourself, I'm trying to understand others who do.

Please do not pm me, use ron@bitcoin.org.il instead
Mastercoin Executive Director
Co-founder of the Israeli Bitcoin Association
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