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Author Topic: Amazing daily analysis on cryptocurrencies from China  (Read 12216 times)
michaelzhang
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February 19, 2014, 07:53:53 AM
 #1

Hi, everyone

I’m an ordinary Bitcoin player from China. About two weeks ago, I happened to find a website that publishes free daily trend analysis on various cryptocurrencies. As a rookie in this speculative market, I adopted a few suggestions from it and I made money!

The latest successfully prediction from the website is the movement of the market maker of Doge. I(most of his readers, I think) successfully acted as a “free rider” and enjoyed the rise.

The author originally started his analysis from tianya.cn, the most popular forum in China, and then started his own website www.bit-sky.com. His daily analysis covers Bitcoin, Litecoin, Doge, IFC, UNO, BTG, HBN, CGB, etc.. Because his suggestions always proved to be correct, lots of people with big money are operating just as he indicates.

Since Chinese players exert a big influence on the market, foreign friends may also find the analysis helpful. And good news! The website has begun to publish English version daily analysis.

The latest is here, fresh and hot, daily updated:

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english

I'll update his latest analysis in this poster everyday.
Wish you find them helpful!~
Enjoy your play in cryptocurrency world! ^^

P.S. (February 21)
The author has emphasized for many times on the brief-time validity of his buying suggestions, so if foreign friends read the daily analysis late and find the coin recommended has risen sharply, it is strongly advised that you don’t buy high. Just wait for the next chance.

P.P.S. (February 21)
As I mentioned above, the author originally started his analysis from tianya.cn, the most popular forum in China. His poster in the forum soon attracted massive attention and was clicked 572,910 times(by the time I wrote) within less than 4 months. This is the link:
http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-develop-1450475-1.shtml

Due to his accurate predictions, a lot of bitcoin players became his fans and readers (including some market makers, I guess). Since a large number of bitcoin players are involved in this poster, I think its content may serve as a useful reference for foreign friends to know about what Chinese bitcoin players are thinking and doing. So I intend to translate the highlights of the poster bit by bit in the following days and put them in this poster, trying to serve as a bridge between China and English speaking world.

I welcome all of your comments and suggestions.

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michaelzhang
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February 19, 2014, 08:12:31 AM
 #2

Today's analysis:
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/329-20140219-15-00-trend-analysis-of-democratic-currency

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February 19, 2014, 08:13:13 AM
 #3

Thanks for that. Looks like it may be a useful resource for speculators.

What really caught my eye was the phrase 'democratic currency'.

Is this a common way to express the term 'cryptocurrency' in Chinese?

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February 19, 2014, 08:51:17 AM
 #4

Thanks for that. Looks like it may be a useful resource for speculators.

What really caught my eye was the phrase 'democratic currency'.

Is this a common way to express the term 'cryptocurrency' in Chinese?
That's not a common way to express, and I hope people do not address them this way, because this sentitive word might repel the authorities.

The phrase 'democratic currency' is proposed by the author. He believes that cryptocurrency is actually the embodiment of democracy in the field of currency.

I like this idea personally.

With the historical trend of democracy in human society, a curreny of the people, by the people, for the people will definitely emerge;

and that currency will stand out from the crowd in this wave.

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February 20, 2014, 03:16:23 PM
 #5

Today's analysis:
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/344-20140220-16-20-trend-analysis-of-democratic-currency
main suggestion:Don't buy LTC, buy IFC.

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February 21, 2014, 04:51:44 AM
 #6

IFC rose immediately by 10% after the release of the author's analysis at 16:20 Beijing time on 20 Feb.

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February 21, 2014, 04:57:47 AM
 #7

IFC will probably go down more. It's on the level where last pump started and those levels usually don't hold, specially with such low volume and support.

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February 21, 2014, 05:03:35 AM
 #8

from another ordinary Bitcoin player ... thanks for that. Link in my bookmark now Wink

http://www.introversion.co.uk/
mit/x11 licence 18.x/16|o|3ffe ::71
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February 21, 2014, 05:43:05 AM
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"Democratic currency"...

Love it!  Smiley

michaelzhang
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February 21, 2014, 09:32:53 AM
 #10

Today's analysis(16:13 Beijing time,21,Feb)
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/351-20140221-16-13-trend-analysis-of-democurrency
Wait for the rise of IFC and retreat!

michaelzhang
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February 21, 2014, 09:43:47 AM
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"Democratic currency"...

Love it!  Smiley



"Democurrency" seems to be a better word.
The author coined this word yesterday, it sounds cool and looks like an authentic English word, haha
I believe this word will be collected by dictionaries some day.

zhangweiwu
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February 21, 2014, 09:56:26 AM
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With the historical trend of democracy in human society, a curreny of the people, by the people, for the people will definitely emerge;

and that currency will stand out from the crowd in this wave.

It's not a currency by the people, because you can't issue it. Bitcoin is governed by math, that is far from 'by people'. History was of bad records of authorities governing currnecy, and bitcoin removed the authority, but it did not give power back to the people - the true 'by the people' means you can issue I-O-U as much as you like, and the value of these I-O-U in compare to math-governed hard currency (bitcoin), is based on how much the community trusts you. e.g. MtGox's I-O-U is currenly valued 40% of real coins. A currency system that designed I-O-U into it is a currency can be called a currency 'by the people'. Bitcoin is a foundation for such a system, providing a digital rigid value to back against, but itself is not a currency 'by the people'.

"Democratic currency" is a wrong name for bitcoin, even 'anti-authority currency' or "discipline currency" or "democratic currency's foundation" are better. There is quite a distance to cover from discipline to democracy. The author may think the alternative crypto-currencies floating around in China menas "you can issue your currency" - it does not, none of the alternative hot new brands in China allows you to issue I-O-U. Duplications of a system is not extending the system, and they are better called anarchy instead of democracy.

It is commonly agreed among economists that a rigid discipline currency as the only currency is a bad idea - think about the 30s' recession - don't worry, this will never happen: bitcoin is either complementary to fiats (now), or fiats will be complementary to bitcoins, or a new crypto-currency representing I-O-U issued by the people will be complementary to bitcoin. A pure bitcoin-only world is disasterful, but it is so easy to correct that it is impossible to really happen - by issuing complementary currencies. We are closer to the ideal model but we are not there yet.

I think the word "Democratic currency" revealed more about Chinese people (disclose: I am) than about the currency. Under a strong government we are so thirst of democracy that we hurry to label any anti-authority ideas with it. It is also dangerous, because we (Chinese people) long for something (democracy) that we don't have much experience and knowledge about - not knowing true water we risk drinking sea water to quench thirst - and this will be a major issue after the down-fall of the current China communist party.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
UnDerDoG81
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February 21, 2014, 12:08:58 PM
 #13

Today's analysis(16:13 Beijing time,21,Feb)
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/351-20140221-16-13-trend-analysis-of-democurrency
Wait for the rise of IFC and retreat!

I like short analysis, good work. Sounds legit.

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michaelzhang
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February 21, 2014, 02:26:57 PM
 #14

P.S. (February 21)
The author has emphasized for many times on the brief-time validity of his buying suggestions, so if foreign friends read the daily analysis late and find the coin recommended has risen sharply, it is strongly advised that you don’t buy high. Just wait for the next chance.

michaelzhang
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February 21, 2014, 02:34:44 PM
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P.P.S. (February 21)

As I mentioned above, the author originally started his analysis from tianya.cn, the most popular forum in China. His poster in the forum soon attracted massive attention and was clicked 572,910 times(by the time I wrote) within less than 4 months. This is the link:
http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-develop-1450475-1.shtml

Due to his accurate predictions, a lot of bitcoin players became his fans and readers (including some market makers, I guess). Since a large number of bitcoin players are involved in this poster, I think its content may serve as a useful reference for foreign friends to know about what Chinese bitcoin players are thinking and doing. So I intend to translate the highlights of the poster bit by bit in the following days and put them in this poster, trying to serve as a bridge between China and English speaking world.

I welcome all of your comments and suggestions.

UnDerDoG81
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February 21, 2014, 02:37:15 PM
 #16

What does he think about Bitstamp? Will it go under 500?

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michaelzhang
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February 21, 2014, 02:42:36 PM
 #17

What does he think about Bitstamp? Will it go under 500?
He mentioned Bitstamp a few days ago. In his opinion, Bitstamp is much more reliable than MT for the time being, at least it's not cheating. As for the price, it's hard to say right now.

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February 21, 2014, 08:43:56 PM
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What does he think about Bitstamp? Will it go under 500?
He mentioned Bitstamp a few days ago. In his opinion, Bitstamp is much more reliable than MT for the time being, at least it's not cheating. As for the price, it's hard to say right now.
He doesn't climb out on much of a limb with that one.
I wonder why he like IFC so much? a look at it's chart since inception is pretty unimpressive.
michaelzhang
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February 22, 2014, 11:01:08 AM
 #19

What does he think about Bitstamp? Will it go under 500?
He mentioned Bitstamp a few days ago. In his opinion, Bitstamp is much more reliable than MT for the time being, at least it's not cheating. As for the price, it's hard to say right now.
He doesn't climb out on much of a limb with that one.
I wonder why he like IFC so much? a look at it's chart since inception is pretty unimpressive.

Good question, why does he favor IFC so much? I collected the author's statements in the poster and translated them into English, the full analysis on IFC is here:
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/357-20140222-17-15-special-analysis-on-ifc
IFC:

Max money supply: 90,600,000,000

Price: 0.00048 RMB right now (www.bter.com)

Block time: 30 seconds

As you can see, IFC has a gigantic issue size, an extremely low price and can be confirmed quickly.

IFC enjoys good popularity in China. There are a lot of IFC websites, forums, and even TV advertisements.

Most important, its mining is coming to an end, only few coins are mined out everyday. This way, the price of IFC will not be pressed by the selling of newly-mined coins, it can rise with much more ease.

For BTC, newly-mined coins everyday is about 1.6 million dollars, Litecoin 400,000 dollars, Doge 400,000 dollars. For a coin without the selling of newly-mined coins, the price is difficult to fall. On the flip side, even a small amount of buying can pull up the price. As a result, the market maker will be able to pull up the price easily and make much profit.

The author detected the existence of a market maker (on a big Chinese trading platform www.bter.com) in December last year, and successfully predicted his movement of pulling the price from 0.00051 to 0.0097 within 10 hours. Then the market maker somewhat stopped pulling (he is supposed to pull higher and attract new buyers), and began to act against the author, he turned around to lower the price in order to absorb more coins, I guess the reason is that the market maker suddenly saw the poster.

The author possesses 1.5 billon coins, together with his readers’ buying, there are about 10 billion coins. This is the main reason why the market maker acted against him, he wants to grab the coins out of his hands.

From January 27 to today, the price of IFC has been going down continuously for 25 days. It doesn\'t fall with BTC, neither does it rise with Doge, it behaved abnormally and began to dive recently(see the chart below),now the price is lower than the market maker’s position-building cost. It is a golden opportunity to buy in!



Despite the author’s favor on IFC, he now seems to be sick and tired of playing mind games with the market maker.

IFC also has its drawbacks, worry about its hashing power, risk of 51% attack, etc.. The author suggested 10% allocation of your money on this coin. You may lose, of course. Anyway, what we are playing is probability.

 

michaelzhang
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February 22, 2014, 11:35:46 AM
 #20

Today's analysis(February 22,16:30, Beijing time)
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/358-20140222-16-30-trend-analysis-of-democurrency
No more panic, ready to rebound.

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