Upcoming MtGox Movement

[dedcoin]

Mt Gox news will come up in few hours. My theory is that the price will go down in other markets.
Explanation:
The odds of MtGox being solvent are >50% in my opinion (~ 90%). Still it seems as the market is frozen and everyone is waiting for the price to go up. Which is ridiculous given the odds; everyone should be buying in the expectation of a crash up.

I believe that the good news (that might come up) are already priced in. I am strictly talking about non Gox.

We will see some manipulation to go up, followed by a crash to $500 and the downtrend will resume.

For those who are positive about gox but use stamp,btce etc. Are you buying like hell, and if not why?

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[hostmaster]

lets see

[TERA]

I thought Thursday was tomorrow.

[dedcoin]

I thought Thursday was tomorrow.

yes, few hours in Japan

[UnDerDoG81]

Still waiting to buy. Not sure what will happen and too much risk to lose my money. I think I get in at 550 on stamp if we go there...

[TERA]

It's being released at midnight?

[Dalmar]

yes, few hours in Japan

All their previous majors announcements were released roughly around 12:00 GMT (evening in Japan - noon in Europe).

[dedcoin]

It's being released at midnight?

All their previous majors announcements were released roughly around 12:00 GMT (evening in Japan - noon in Europe).

I see, so you are holding off until the right moment. When the bell will ring you will place your order. Good strategy.
I should have done that when bitstamp resumed.

[AmazonStuff]

Currently it's 22:42, Wednesday, February 19, 2014 (JST) in Japan.

[dedcoin]

.. and
How do you think time-to-announcement is affecting the price?

[AmazonStuff]

.. and
How do you think time-to-announcement is affecting the price?

I just don't think announcement will happen in a few hours, MtGox team is probably preparing to sleep now. Announcement will happen probably tomorrow (tomorrow in terms of JST).

[InCoinsITrust]

And what should be that announcment ? How will it affect price ?

[PirateHatForTea]

[dedcoin]

Simply a confirmation of their previous one. System is working again .. Price wise, you can say "farewell $260"

[InCoinsITrust]

so when will announcment will be ?

[dedcoin]

I don't know, they said on Thursday 20th (few hours) 

[Luno]

Thursday it is in Tokyo since 3 minutes ago!

[CoinBrokers]

Well if anyone wants to dump bitcoin for cash, just shoot me a PM 

[iBug]

We will update everyone again by Thursday at the latest.

[mp420]

My guess is that they won't enable BTC withdrawals yet tomorrow. At the very best they might give a date for the reopening. Given Gox's track record, they'll probably miss that date too by a day or two.

So, if you feel adventurous, I'm predicting that there's time left to send more fiat to Gox. Not that I'm recommending doing that, though.

[Mythul]

So they lied again ?

[Money Raccoon]

They said there will be an announcement. They haven't said what the announcement with entail.

Bitches just need to be patient and wait and see.

[igorr]

countdown begins

[derpinheimer]

Guys they have just a really slow typist. I gave em a call and withdrawals are being activated as we sit here.

[worldtreasurefinders]

Think about it, they have LOTS to gain by making a positive announcement tomorrow, and lots to lose by making another negative announcement.  They've already scared the market shitless last time, they got their cheap coins, so I'm sure the upcoming announcement will be as full of positive spin as they can manage.  I expect a positive announcement and an increase in price after Thursday.

[biafore]

Think about it, they have LOTS to gain by making a positive announcement tomorrow, and lots to lose by making another negative announcement.  They've already scared the market shitless last time, they got their cheap coins, so I'm sure the upcoming announcement will be as full of positive spin as they can manage.  I expect a positive announcement and an increase in price after Thursday.

+1

[poikkeus]

My SEPA went through in 2 days. Got some cheap coins at $260

[Obi-Wan Coinobi]

What time is it on the moon? (totally joking) 

[ArticMine]

My SEPA went through in 2 days. Got some cheap coins at $260

You got an MTGox note payable in BTC for $260 per BTC promised. The question remains will MTGox pay?

[kireinaha]

thursday at latest.... that means thursday 7pm or later japan time.

the whole situation with gox is like a weekend at bernie's. mark and crew are pulling the strings, pupeteering bernie and trying to fool everyone into believing that he's still alive and well. 'look, we're allowing withdrawals again... they're capped to a small amount though, don't ask why.'

gox is doing their best to spin this, and honestly they're not doing too well, and this corpse is beginning to stink. investors, blinded by their greed, are willing to look past all these signs in order to get their hands on cheap coins. will it work in their favor? i'm thinking no, but time will tell.

[windjc]

thursday at latest.... that means thursday 7pm or later japan time.

the whole situation with gox is like a weekend at bernie's. mark and crew are pulling the strings, pupeteering bernie and trying to fool everyone into believing that he's still alive and well. 'look, we're allowing withdrawals again... they're capped to a small amount though, don't ask why.'

gox is doing their best to spin this, and honestly they're not doing too well, and this corpse is beginning to stink. investors, blinded by their greed, are willing to look past all these signs in order to get their hands on cheap coins. will it work in their favor? i'm thinking no, but time will tell.

People who are about as "inside" as you can get - Andreas/Roger  say they are very solvent.

[Solarstorm75]

Mt Gox news will come up in few hours. My theory is that the price will go down in other markets.

Is it good news, Gox will come with the announcement in the morning 9 AM or 10 AM Tokyo time. Is it further mess around or bad news,  the Announcement will be in the eve (at latest possible time, 6 PM or 7 PM Tokyo time).

I'm expecting price drops on Stamp & BTC-E the later the hour, waiting on Gox's update.

[quone17]

If everything gets squared away you'd think the price would basically double.  That will take time though for people to be able to get their coins and cash out, and I doubt that will even be allowed to happen by Gox.

[dedcoin]

It's really paradoxal
I feel like we are paralysed, ant wont even know what to do when it starts ...
1- euphoria of gox liberation
2- the threat of dumpers looming

[igorr]

http://localtimes.info/asia/Japan/Tokyo/widget/

[T.Stuart]

thursday at latest.... that means thursday 7pm or later japan time.

the whole situation with gox is like a weekend at bernie's. mark and crew are pulling the strings, pupeteering bernie and trying to fool everyone into believing that he's still alive and well. 'look, we're allowing withdrawals again... they're capped to a small amount though, don't ask why.'

gox is doing their best to spin this, and honestly they're not doing too well, and this corpse is beginning to stink. investors, blinded by their greed, are willing to look past all these signs in order to get their hands on cheap coins. will it work in their favor? i'm thinking no, but time will tell.

But Bernie gets laid, remember... 

[meanig]

If they're going to start withdrawals on Thursday they'll probably begin doing them manually. Doing them manually means they'll have to start on Thursday morning to get through a significant amount of them. So if we don't hear an announcement within the next 5 hours don't expect withdrawals today.

[jatajuta]

If they're going to start withdrawals on Thursday they'll probably begin doing them manually. Doing them manually means they'll have to start on Thursday morning to get through a significant amount of them. So if we don't hear an announcement within the next 5 hours don't expect withdrawals today.

I think it is impossible to manually process all the demand for withdrawals that will be.

It would be the same as no withdrawal.

Maybe they are testing manually since last week, but who knows 

[kireinaha]

If they're going to start withdrawals on Thursday they'll probably begin doing them manually. Doing them manually means they'll have to start on Thursday morning to get through a significant amount of them. So if we don't hear an announcement within the next 5 hours don't expect withdrawals today.

withdrawals won't start today, i can already tell you that. the only thing they said in the latest press release is "soon" and an update on thursday. i think the gox version of "soon" is perhaps a little different than the general public's version.

[chessnut]

Mt Gox news will come up in few hours. My theory is that the price will go down in other markets.
Explanation:
The odds of MtGox being solvent are >50% in my opinion (~ 90%). Still it seems as the market is frozen and everyone is waiting for the price to go up. Which is ridiculous given the odds; everyone should be buying in the expectation of a crash up.

I believe that the good news (that might come up) are already priced in. I am strictly talking about non Gox.

We will see some manipulation to go up, followed by a crash to $500 and the downtrend will resume.

For those who are positive about gox but use stamp,btce etc. Are you buying like hell, and if not why?

I dont get why the price of Bitcoin should be affected in the least by Mt Gox, apart from the factor of arbitrage.

If Mt Gox allows withdrawals, the price on bitstamp, BTCe will go DOWN. If this is factored into the market, and mt Gox goes bankrupt, price will go UP on bitstamp, BTCe.

do you realise that if mood should determine that bad news entails down, and good news entails down (arbitrage) then the only way is down down down!!

[cbeast]

The only way empty box is going to see movement is if Tux gets more fiber. 

[dynodog]

With all the cheeseburgers Karpeles washes down with frappuccinos, my guess is the movement will be huge.  At least he will have the print out of tomorrow's announcement available to use for wiping his ass (bc that's all it will be good for).

[derpinheimer]

With all the cheeseburgers Karpeles washes down with frappuccinos, my guess is the movement will be huge.  At least he will have the print out of tomorrow's announcement available to use for wiping his ass (bc that's all it will be good for).

Am I understanding you correctly? Mr. Karpeles ate the bitcoins?

[dynodog]

With all the cheeseburgers Karpeles washes down with frappuccinos, my guess is the movement will be huge.  At least he will have the print out of tomorrow's announcement available to use for wiping his ass (bc that's all it will be good for).

Am I understanding you correctly? Mr. Karpeles ate the bitcoins?

LOL.  If Occam's razor is true, Karpeles eating all the mtgox bitcoins is the only hypothesis that makes any sense.

[smoothie]

Mt Gox news will come up in few hours. My theory is that the price will go down in other markets.
Explanation:
The odds of MtGox being solvent are >50% in my opinion (~ 90%). Still it seems as the market is frozen and everyone is waiting for the price to go up. Which is ridiculous given the odds; everyone should be buying in the expectation of a crash up.

I believe that the good news (that might come up) are already priced in. I am strictly talking about non Gox.

We will see some manipulation to go up, followed by a crash to $500 and the downtrend will resume.

For those who are positive about gox but use stamp,btce etc. Are you buying like hell, and if not why?

You do realize that SOLVENT means they have 100% of all customer funds right? Meaning they should allow full BTC withdrawals of any amount for all customers immediately.

If you agree this is the case then yes by that definition they are SOLVENT.

[Cluster2k]

The value of bitcoins will rocket up again once we cut loose the boat anchor that is MtGox.  Currently MtGox is still claiming the following:

"Trade with confidence on the world's largest Bitcoin exchange!"

That hasn't been true in quite a long time.


"MtGox is the world's most established Bitcoin exchange."

Lovely weasel words there.  As long as MtGox remains alive with one user they can still claim to be the 'most established'


"The only multi-currency Bitcoin trading platform where you can trade with the entire world in your local currency."

Now they've just being funny.  At least the stock clipart still inspires confidence.

[Hyena]

MyMt. Gox 185$ and falling as we speak. I think bad news are coming because why would they start selling TODAY when the news are about to hit.

[dedcoin]

Scary


I think either way, good or bad news, the price was deemed to fall on exchanges..

[dedcoin]

A possible theory is that MtGox is pushing its luck.

We are still thursday, so they can keep their promise while creating panic for last minute cheapo coins
This is not dumb at all for them, since they don't care about the reputation of BTC

[Oldminer]

I'll buy if Karpels accepts IOU's?

[exocytosis]

The announcement comes in 20 minutes, right?

[adam9317]

The announcement comes in 20 minutes, right?

I'm not sure, but what makes you think this?

[exocytosis]

The announcement comes in 20 minutes, right?

I'm not sure, but what makes you think this?

I heard it comes at 6 PM Japan time. And that's in 12 minutes, I think.

[mp420]

The announcement comes in 20 minutes, right?

I'm not sure, but what makes you think this?

I heard it comes at 6 PM Japan time. And that's in 12 minutes, I think.

Where did you hear that?

[exocytosis]

The announcement comes in 20 minutes, right?

I'm not sure, but what makes you think this?

I heard it comes at 6 PM Japan time. And that's in 12 minutes, I think.

Where did you hear that?

On these forums, approximately half an hour ago. In another of the popular Gox threads.

[dedcoin]

It's really taking them a long time.

[adam9317]

It's really taking them a long time.

Tick tock, tick tock. Time goes by so slowly!

[dazzling2865]

It's really taking them a long time.

Tick tock, tick tock. Time goes by so slowly!

I see a massive spike in volume on their website ticker/graph. No expert but does that mean a massive sell of BTC by MTgox/it's customers in last hour or so?

[dedcoin]

They spoke
- I was wrong with the good news.
- The price is still going down.

Where are we headed now?

[adam9317]

What they have said is absolute rubbish! Excuses after excuses!

[Luno]

Absurdly appropriate: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzmrWONvxck&list=UUAAgMYqyzm_kT2tgI3HPE2A

filmed by Mark himself

[worldtreasurefinders]

You would have thought they would have at least tried to say something positive. It's like they're doing this on purpose now.

Who would have thought, the biggest threat to bitcoin's future would be, not government, not bankers, but one of our own exchanges?

[dedcoin]

You would have thought they would have at least tried to say something positive. It's like they're doing this on purpose now.

Who would have thought, the biggest threat to bitcoin's future would be, not government, not bankers, but one of our own exchanges?

Exactly.

The irony for BTC .. falling because of a financial institution.

[worldtreasurefinders]

Anyone who uses gox after all this all sorts out is truly an idiot.

[igorr]

Anyone who uses gox after all this all sorts out is truly an idiot.

The next is Bitstamp and BTC-e !

[fonzie]

Anyone who uses gox after all this all sorts out is truly an idiot.

The next is Bitstamp and BTC-e !

+1

[igorr]

See MtGox,
how it is possible, big international robbery without any help and without any legal responsibility.
Who was behind this     

[Draino]

You would have thought they would have at least tried to say something positive. It's like they're doing this on purpose now.

Who would have thought, the biggest threat to bitcoin's future would be, not government, not bankers, but one of our own exchanges?

This is not new.

MtGox under karpeles has displayed zero redeeming qualities and extreme incompetence for years now.

It was much scarier when they were the only exchange with any volume.  Thankfully, I actually managed to spot the obvious (finally) and not deal with gox for at least a year now, though I feel bad for people with their funds being held hostage by that fat turd.

He comes across as the worst type of nerd-- not particularly intelligent, or scholarly, or possessing any sort of critical thinking skills, but very gluttonous, obnoxious, arrogant, and so on.  He reminds me of Pee Wee's arch nemesis, Francis.  I just imagine him with heavy cream smeared across his face most of the day, yelling like a spoiled child when his staff reminds him that there's work to do, blaming the world around him for what is obviously his own stupidity.

[porcupine87]

If I had 100 000$ in cash at gox, I would buy now. Then I would spend every second on the Goxsite and refreshing. If the withdrawals work again, you should make sure, you are first.

[dedcoin]

If I had 100 000$ in cash at gox, I would buy now. Then I would spend every second on the Goxsite and refreshing. If the withdrawals work again, you should make sure, you are first.

You think they might still open at some point?
What scares me is that there is not information on when they will update the world next.

[Cassius]

If I had 100 000$ in cash at gox, I would buy now. Then I would spend every second on the Goxsite and refreshing. If the withdrawals work again, you should make sure, you are first.

Gox is burning so you might as well do the same with your $100,000. I sincerely hope they'll get their act together but even if they are solvent (which the market has priced in at odds of 3:1 against) their lack of communication is appalling and they deserve to sink, which no doubt they will under the weight of a bloated CEO. No one with self respect or intelligence should use Gox after this.

[porcupine87]

If I had 100 000$ in cash at gox, I would buy now. Then I would spend every second on the Goxsite and refreshing. If the withdrawals work again, you should make sure, you are first.

Gox is burning so you might as well do the same with your $100,000. I sincerely hope they'll get their act together but even if they are solvent (which the market has priced in at odds of 3:1 against) their lack of communication is appalling and they deserve to sink, which no doubt they will under the weight of a bloated CEO. No one with self respect or intelligence should use Gox after this.

Like I said. I would buy and get out my coins as fast as I can. For sure this is risky, every opportunity, where you can make a lot of money, is risky. But in my opinion the price at Gox is highly undervaluated. But maybe I am wrong. I am no prophet (and no cash. I would have to sell btc and transfer money to gox. This would take a week or so...)

[Cassius]

If I had 100 000$ in cash at gox, I would buy now. Then I would spend every second on the Goxsite and refreshing. If the withdrawals work again, you should make sure, you are first.

Gox is burning so you might as well do the same with your $100,000. I sincerely hope they'll get their act together but even if they are solvent (which the market has priced in at odds of 3:1 against) their lack of communication is appalling and they deserve to sink, which no doubt they will under the weight of a bloated CEO. No one with self respect or intelligence should use Gox after this.

Like I said. I would buy and get out my coins as fast as I can. For sure this is risky, every opportunity, where you can make a lot of money, is risky. But in my opinion the price at Gox is highly undervaluated. But maybe I am wrong. I am no prophet (and no cash. I would have to sell btc and transfer money to gox. This would take a week or so...)

Fair enough. You pays your money, you takes your choice.
Myself, I'd take $100k in the hand over a 1-in-4 chance of $400k any day...

[wobber]

$130 support breached, now sitting at 125 at Gox.

There's no way to keep the price from falling to 100s but I really wonder if we will see double-digits (ever).

So much fun!

[Cryddit]

Already bought at USD$600.  Spent my whole investment budget for the current month.  I'm very happy with the purchase, and expect it to rise by 100% from current prices within a few months.

I just hope that if they go bankrupt and manage to crash prices to $400, they wait at least a month so I'll have budget to buy again.

[Cassius]

Got to say, Stamp's holding up well given that Gox is almost into double digits. Famous last words...

[boumalo]

Absurdly appropriate: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzmrWONvxck&list=UUAAgMYqyzm_kT2tgI3HPE2A

filmed by Mark himself

hahaha or this one : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xi413TRabpQ

He made a looooot of money he need to celebrate

[CoinBrokers]

The thing that amazes me the most is that there are people willing to risk fiat to get bitcoins at a discount, and the risk is high!

So what's good about this fiasco?
1. We are seeing a live response to a disaster, a free-market bailout.
2. People are willing to take high risk for bitcoin.
3. Disaster creates problems, and people will provide solutions fast in exchange for fair compensation.

The only way to accomplish this in our current system is to FORCE people to pay, through debt, for the mistakes of private companies.
Not to mention the inherent waiting for bureaucracy to act upon a time sensitive disaster as it happens.

So after all the gloom, take into consideration the positives before relying on emotion to make decisions, we are all winning in the long run!

[zhangweiwu]

Think about it, they have LOTS to gain by making a positive announcement tomorrow, and lots to lose by making another negative announcement.  They've already scared the market shitless last time, they got their cheap coins, so I'm sure the upcoming announcement will be as full of positive spin as they can manage.  I expect a positive announcement and an increase in price after Thursday.

Think about it, they know they are so screwed up that a positive announcement tomorrow won't even keep their customers after-crash, and lots of cheap choins to buy / arbitrage by making another negative announcement. So predictable that the announcement is negative.

Nay, it's joking.. I didn't expect negative news.

[Cassius]

Think about it, they have LOTS to gain by making a positive announcement tomorrow, and lots to lose by making another negative announcement.  They've already scared the market shitless last time, they got their cheap coins, so I'm sure the upcoming announcement will be as full of positive spin as they can manage.  I expect a positive announcement and an increase in price after Thursday.

Think about it, they know they are so screwed up that a positive announcement tomorrow won't even keep their customers after-crash, and lots of cheap choins to buy / arbitrage by making another negative announcement. So predictable that the announcement is negative.

Nay, it's joking.. I didn't expect negative news.

All Gox has left now is spin, and they're not even doing that well. If it turns out their situation is better than people suspect and they are solvent (something the market estimated at 5:1 against earlier today) then they may retain some small amount of credibility. Not something I think will happen but there's a chance. But the way they've managed their PR should be the final nail in the coffin.

The sad thing is that there are enough people who will still give them a 2nd, 3rd, 4th chance to keep them going as 'the world's most established Bitcoin exchange'.

[zhangweiwu]

People who are about as "inside" as you can get - Andreas/Roger  say they are very solvent.

Roger Ver spoke in a youtube video a few months ago. But he did not see how much is left in the wallet: he sees MtGox have big numbers on their bank account, and he has no way to know if the digits add up to the total incoming transactions - too easy to cook and hard to verify. Even if he is sure the fiat is there, he didn't mention the coins are there. Besides, he said MtGox doesn't have liquidity problems to offer fiat withdraw, that is a bit different than solvent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pSYJiXQgbM

Andreas Antonopolos didn't say anything related to MtGox's solvency recently. He did mention the opposite in another youtube video, that the transaction on MtGox happens on the book, not in blockchain (implies that he doesn't know), and he mentioned in a fraction-reserve system transaction also happens only on the book - a bad way to express it, hinting MtGox is reserving only a fraction of funds which he didn't mean.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP9-lAYngi4

So I cannot take these information as Andreas/Roger claiming MtGox being solvent. Did I miss something? Kindly add more information:)

[Cryddit]

There is no way they will allow withdrawals of bitcoin sold at $100.  If they intended to allow bitcoin withdrawals, there is no way they'd be allowing bitcoin to trade so cheap on their separated market.  They're allowing deposits of fiat to buy those bitcoins, but they cannot get bitcoins *ANYWHERE* at that price. 

So look at it.  If they ever allow withdrawals of bitcoin, then they lose $400 per $100 they're allowing to come in now.  There is no way they're going to do that.  They'd rather not be allowing the money to come in now.

So ask yourself, why is fiat money so important to them?  Is it because they intend to allow fiat withdrawals?  Hint: if they had been allowing fiat withdrawals then customers would have withdrawn fiat, and their bitcoin market would not have become so depressed.  Hence there would be no "lure" to draw in more fiat. 

To me, this smells like someone is either getting ready to either take the money on a vacation to the islands, or close the books repaying a paltry amount of fiat to some limited class of investors or lienholders - but the market is giving 5 to 1 odds, and I personally will offer 10 to 1 if someone cares for a bet, that Gox's customers will be left twisting in the wind. 

[dedcoin]

There is no way they will allow withdrawals of bitcoin sold at $100.  If they intended to allow bitcoin withdrawals, there is no way they'd be allowing bitcoin to trade so cheap on their separated market.  They're allowing deposits of fiat to buy those bitcoins, but they cannot get bitcoins *ANYWHERE* at that price. 

It's an exchange market not a bank. They are not supposed to own a single bitcoin, just taking fees from transactions. That's the only business model.
Now if they start speculating with their clients money, it's another story.

[shkiser]

Ive been warning ppl about mtgox since the first simulated crash. They are manipulating the market, very obviously now that there are other established exchanges to compare them to. They are playing a game with their users money and bitcoin. Reminds me of a casino, and this case is no different, the house always wins. Feel bad for anyone that was still doing business with MTGOX> Hopefully we all learn a valuable lesson from this an once and for all boycott gox. However it plays out, I wish those that have money with Gox, much luck.