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Author Topic: Super Speculator... 2.0 (It is that easy, it will happen.)  (Read 1393 times)
ISAWHIM
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February 19, 2014, 03:56:29 PM
 #1

1: MtGox opens the flood-gates (Prior to announcement, found by just trying to withdraw.)
2: Someone detects large moves in the block-chain, but coins were already sitting in wait on the other exchanges.
3: Some idiot prematurely dumps and causes a panic on the high exchanges.
4: The panic-Buy on MtGox runs up into crazy highs, with high resistance.
5: Other exchanges see rise, they rise in confusion/competition... (Wrong move)
6: Everyone with BTC on MtGox, who was going to move, tries to move... Some don't make it in time...
7: Other exchanges panic-sell with the actual dumping that follows. Get knocked down after crazy high prices just made a bunch of people a lot of money.
8: No intentions of cashing-out for the money on the other exchanges, the dumps go lower, in pure panic now...
9: All that "money" just gotten, is now used to buy-up all those panic-lows...
10: Quietly, they move the massive qty of BTC back to MtGox, waiting for the money to come a month later, from USA income-tax-returns. (Play money, to arrive in MtGox, now that the panic is over, and all exchanges are equally low, but MtGox still remains just enough under the highs, to get the deposits.)
11: Out of the remaining dust, the holders of money at the other exchanges just decide to cash-out the funds they had to spend on BTC... Some to deposit back on MtGox for the lower rates... After all, they have time, there is still another month expected before the actual peak-rush to come.
12: MtGox works overtime getting deposits into the exchange, opening an American bank, a Chinese bank, and a European bank... Near instant deposits, with no need for "international fees".
13: The world returns to normal as BTC hits a yearly true peak of $6000/BTC
14: Following months returns BTC back to a normal price of $900-$1240, for those who waited for the rush to end, fueling next years peak of $25,000

Anyone want to take bets? JK, I don't gamble... Want to sell me your BTC? (Ironic)

Oh, and LTC crashes as everyone cashes out for all those uber-high BTC values, and uber-low BTC prices. (On BTCe)

Take note to the $40 million dollars 43K BTC listed above $1240-$2590/BTC on MtGox, up to $6000/BTC, which does not even show on the volume charts. $6000/BTC shows once in a while... volume beyond $2590/BTC seems to just not display, but it is there.

Only $5 million below buying price on MtGox... not worth cashing-out to anyone with any value in BTC... not even a stupid guy with millions of BTC would take that big loss. lol.

I think I summed-up about 550,000 BTC swapped around $240-$500 on MtGox the last few days... That's a lot of discount BTC people got in the cash-out and run-around. Discounts stopped rolling in though, the last few hours before the gates are ready to open.
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BitcoinBobbeh
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February 19, 2014, 04:20:21 PM
 #2

There should be a mod that just hangs out in the speculation forum and mutes people.

By the end of next month at the latest we will have permanently left behind 3 digits. You can quote me on this.
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February 19, 2014, 04:21:29 PM
 #3

Tongue Thank-you I think...

So you disagree? Come-on, play... or at-least call me a nut, or something...

(Can you tell I am bored, waiting for the hammer to drop.)

How would one speculate if muted... Sign-language? Words? Video?

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February 19, 2014, 04:40:11 PM
 #4

If I had a large amount of bitcoin ... probably I would trade OTC ... and not shut myself in the foot

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February 19, 2014, 04:43:00 PM
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If I had a large amount of bitcoin ... probably I would trade OTC ... and not shut myself in the foot

But they already shot their foot... Then we chewed the meat off, and ground the bone, on MtGox... Still chewing a little too.

I would have thought they would have done that too... But apparently, this seems strategic, or an act of desperation, by the person/people who did cash-out. (It was all exchanges, but MtGox had the whole panic and FUD issue too.)

So do you think it is going to go down, and everyone will isolate themselves to MtGox when the gates open, knowing all those high BTC prices are floating just outside the gate? Doesn't look like much money is flowing into the other exchanges.

Then there is also Huobi, who cashes-in/out on MtGox/USD also. (They just convert at the USD/CNY exchange rate, or loan us back our USD through Obama.) At the moment, besides MtGox, they are the only other exchange with greater volume. 1,400,000 BTC compared to MtGox's 550,000 BTC volume, on this drop.

I think it is safe to say we are not waiting for news... but rather, just a move... One big kick, and the market will rocket in the opposite direction.

Anyone got a couple million to throw at the market to make it cascade in a favorable direction?
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February 19, 2014, 05:06:15 PM
 #6

Can someone do me a favor, and quote my first post... just so no-one can say I edited it to favor the direction. Tongue
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February 19, 2014, 05:07:28 PM
 #7

good question ...

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February 19, 2014, 05:08:22 PM
 #8

1: MtGox opens the flood-gates (Prior to announcement, found by just trying to withdraw.)
2: Someone detects large moves in the block-chain, but coins were already sitting in wait on the other exchanges.
3: Some idiot prematurely dumps and causes a panic on the high exchanges.
4: The panic-Buy on MtGox runs up into crazy highs, with high resistance.
5: Other exchanges see rise, they rise in confusion/competition... (Wrong move)
6: Everyone with BTC on MtGox, who was going to move, tries to move... Some don't make it in time...
7: Other exchanges panic-sell with the actual dumping that follows. Get knocked down after crazy high prices just made a bunch of people a lot of money.
8: No intentions of cashing-out for the money on the other exchanges, the dumps go lower, in pure panic now...
9: All that "money" just gotten, is now used to buy-up all those panic-lows...
10: Quietly, they move the massive qty of BTC back to MtGox, waiting for the money to come a month later, from USA income-tax-returns. (Play money, to arrive in MtGox, now that the panic is over, and all exchanges are equally low, but MtGox still remains just enough under the highs, to get the deposits.)
11: Out of the remaining dust, the holders of money at the other exchanges just decide to cash-out the funds they had to spend on BTC... Some to deposit back on MtGox for the lower rates... After all, they have time, there is still another month expected before the actual peak-rush to come.
12: MtGox works overtime getting deposits into the exchange, opening an American bank, a Chinese bank, and a European bank... Near instant deposits, with no need for "international fees".
13: The world returns to normal as BTC hits a yearly true peak of $6000/BTC
14: Following months returns BTC back to a normal price of $900-$1240, for those who waited for the rush to end, fueling next years peak of $25,000

Anyone want to take bets? JK, I don't gamble... Want to sell me your BTC? (Ironic)

Oh, and LTC crashes as everyone cashes out for all those uber-high BTC values, and uber-low BTC prices. (On BTCe)

Take note to the $40 million dollars 43K BTC listed above $1240-$2590/BTC on MtGox, up to $6000/BTC, which does not even show on the volume charts. $6000/BTC shows once in a while... volume beyond $2590/BTC seems to just not display, but it is there.

Only $5 million below buying price on MtGox... not worth cashing-out to anyone with any value in BTC... not even a stupid guy with millions of BTC would take that big loss. lol.

I think I summed-up about 550,000 BTC swapped around $240-$500 on MtGox the last few days... That's a lot of discount BTC people got in the cash-out and run-around. Discounts stopped rolling in though, the last few hours before the gates are ready to open.

For future reference
Oh.. and great story

ISAWHIM
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February 19, 2014, 05:09:47 PM
 #9

Thanks GIANNAT... xD

Your input?

I also took into account, all the mini-pumps locking-up some BTC on the alt-coins. But DogeCoin has had lots of dumps, that liberated a lot more than was locked-up in the other coins. That and 42-coin and moon-coin.
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February 19, 2014, 05:13:56 PM
 #10

Can someone do me a favor, and quote my first post... just so no-one can say I edited it to favor the direction. Tongue

done, I do edit my posts all the time most of the time because typo/grammar and that blood "auto corrector" (compiler)...

sometimes I feel like ... About ed (editing) It's like you're coding and some else applies a-patch and your code stop works ... lol  



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February 19, 2014, 05:14:28 PM
 #11

I'd like Gox to reopen withdrewal, but I think my coins in there are lost.
The only sure thing is that no one should use Gox anymore plus it should be less publicized (weusecoins and blockchain still suggest Gox to "buy your first bitcoin")
Regarding price: it should stay the same for a few weeks and then keep climbing as usual, long term is up obviusly

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February 19, 2014, 05:15:33 PM
 #12

Yea, that is why I wanted it where I can't edit it, in another one. I constantly edit, even weeks after people have finished ignoring me. lol OCD/ADD

Yes, my trust is faded in MtGox, but not completely lost. (I still attribute all this crap on all exchanges to growing pains of old-dogs trying to learn new tricks that new-dogs have better training for.)
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February 19, 2014, 05:20:43 PM
 #13

Nice theory.

Could a 50 percent drop from 6000 to 3000 also be possible?

If it drops from 6000 to 1250 ... the press will say: 80 percent drop .. you see .. tulip mania! That could be catastrophic i think.
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February 19, 2014, 05:22:02 PM
 #14

1: MtGox opens the flood-gates (Prior to announcement, found by just trying to withdraw.)
2: Someone detects large moves in the block-chain, but coins were already sitting in wait on the other exchanges.
3: Some idiot prematurely dumps and causes a panic on the high exchanges.
4: The panic-Buy on MtGox runs up into crazy highs, with high resistance.
5: Other exchanges see rise, they rise in confusion/competition... (Wrong move)
6: Everyone with BTC on MtGox, who was going to move, tries to move... Some don't make it in time...
7: Other exchanges panic-sell with the actual dumping that follows. Get knocked down after crazy high prices just made a bunch of people a lot of money.
8: No intentions of cashing-out for the money on the other exchanges, the dumps go lower, in pure panic now...
9: All that "money" just gotten, is now used to buy-up all those panic-lows...
10: Quietly, they move the massive qty of BTC back to MtGox, waiting for the money to come a month later, from USA income-tax-returns. (Play money, to arrive in MtGox, now that the panic is over, and all exchanges are equally low, but MtGox still remains just enough under the highs, to get the deposits.)
11: Out of the remaining dust, the holders of money at the other exchanges just decide to cash-out the funds they had to spend on BTC... Some to deposit back on MtGox for the lower rates... After all, they have time, there is still another month expected before the actual peak-rush to come.
12: MtGox works overtime getting deposits into the exchange, opening an American bank, a Chinese bank, and a European bank... Near instant deposits, with no need for "international fees".
13: The world returns to normal as BTC hits a yearly true peak of $6000/BTC
14: Following months returns BTC back to a normal price of $900-$1240, for those who waited for the rush to end, fueling next years peak of $25,000


Great speculation! You are trying to tie all the pieces together. I agree with some parts, and disagree with others. My take is no more sure to be right or wrong than yours, but below are my thoughts.

1. Agreed.
2. If 1 occurs, so too will this.
3. Premature dump - Likely. Idiot is only one reason, others exist including inciting panic for profit, stopping out leveraged positions.
4. Price runup will occur, but 'crazy' is subjective. The equilibrium will be met when Gox price exceeds other-exchange prices by a percentage that matches the market's percent-belief that Gox is insolvent.
5. Disagreed. The market is not naive, these actions are priced in. Holders on other exchanges are anticipating greater selling pressure than buying pressure. New Gox BTC coming into those exchanges will then be sold as each investor hits their own preferred balance of fiat/BTC, moving from their starting position of 100% BTC, which they were forced into to get out of Gox. The selling pressure will result in other exchanges prices going down.
6. Disagreed. "Don't make it in time" implies that some will get out while others do not. If there was a risk of running out of funds, Gox would not choose that path forward, but instead a more restrictive path. Everyone will be able to take the same actions, the question is the extent of the restrictions on withdrawals.
7. Agreed other-exchanges move downward in price. But not from a higher price point. Rather, the decline will be generally smooth and downward, but will have its jagged spikes. It will look very similar to the decline on Gox from 900 to current levels. The timespan of that decline will be dependent on the withdrawal limits on Gox. The more stringent they are, the more drawn out the price decline will be.

From 8 on, the speculation depends on previous speculation, so I won't be so bold as you and continue. Except to say that generally, I think you're right. In the short to medium term, carnage. In the long term, this was a painful rite of passage that needed to occur to get to the next run-up.

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February 19, 2014, 05:26:13 PM
 #15

#6... "don't make it in time"... I meant them trying to move BTC out of gox, to the other exchanges, to take advantage of moves. (Since gox said they would limit withdraws and "who" can withdraw.) I did not want to imply "getting out" as in, getting out of the game... (cash-out for dollars permanently.)

I do think some hopeful higher values, possibly above $1240 might show, prematurely. (That is what I was also trying to imply by crazy highs. Built by selling what they earned the whole way up, expecting it to rise higher, but failing... Before my $6000 at the end. In April/May. Tongue)

Not sure where DDOS and "exchange congestion" and "BTC block-traffic" will play into all this either... a little the whole way... I imagine.

Be bold... That is what speculation is!

I also think MtGox will be one of the ones moving some of their earnings onto the other exchanges, to take part in the dumps. Tongue (I would if I were them. Their BTC is just as valuable as ours.) They are going to need those funds to open up all those bank-accounts around the world!

Also.. Might go 4,3,2,1... 5,6,7,8,9... (Now that I look at it... Someone might preemptively swipe-up the goods, after finding-out they can withdraw, secretly.)

Gox feels more like a reverse-pump, a pull-down, to swipe-up cheap BTC... stops right at certain values that no normal human would sustain.

Need sleep... Post if you have some oddities that I should consider, other than my own observations. (Anything out of place in the BTC world.)
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February 20, 2014, 12:42:19 AM
 #16

Also, this takes into consideration the FUD limiting some reservations about depositing money into Gox. With the added 21-days delay that the IRS has forced on large income-tax-returns this year. (Low-income and EZ forms are not delayed, but anyone with $3500+ returns, involving kids and schools, have had a forced delay for reviews.)

Oh, and Obama-Care, the "affordable for my rich friends, who don't actually need discounts" health-plan that makes health-care still unaffordable for anyone making less than $16,000 a year, who couldn't afford it in the first place. (They have about $50-$120 a month that they are now forced to pay. While the rest, below, just don't have any actual health-care, still.)

You know, instead of capping "doctors" and "insurance rape", you just force the rest of the community to keep paying gross prices for things you didn't actually need.. Like $8,000 a day rent for a hospital bed, and $1,000 per pill aspirin, and $4,000 an hour for 2-min of a doctors time to look at you while a student actually attends to you for minimum-wage. lol. Gotta keep those doctors playing golf and flying around the world on vacation five times a year, so they have 2-min to spare to tell us we need aspirin, while we are waiting in bed for them to come.

Also, silk-road 2 being dead/down, and silk-road 3 not being any actual success in the future, to become a future loss.

P.S. If Amazon adopts BTC directly, to compete with the CC's and PayPal... Then adjust #14 values to $2,500/BTC and $40,000/BTC respectively. xD
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